Thursday, March 22, 2007

Michigan to lose Congressional Seat?

This is bad news, particulary for the GOP and likely for Livingston County.

From the Free Press

Michigan is likely to lose one of its 15 seats in Congress after the 2010 U.S. census -- meaning the possibility of a little less clout in Washington, a little less attention from presidential candidates and the smallest delegation from Michigan in about 100 years, based on census numbers released today.

Even though the state's population grew by 1.6% over the last six years, it did so a lot more slowly than in states like Texas (13%), Arizona (20%) and Nevada (25%). That means reapportionment of the 435-member U.S. House will send seats from slow-growing or backsliding Northeast and Midwest states to the South and West.

"I don't think there's any chance of a turnaround, given the magnitude," Clark Bensen, whose Virginia-based firm Polidata researches population numbers for political clients, said Wednesday. "Unless Toyota moves into Detroit and takes over, you're going down."

Currently, this state has approx 660,000 people for each district (15). Assuming that the state population is reletively stagnant at 10 million and that we use a seat, that drops us to approx 715,000 per district - at 14 districts. That significantly reduces the influence of Livingston County. Where it hurts the GOP is that the seat lost will almost certainly be a GOP seat - probably Knollenberg or McCotter.

This is something that will be followed closely. On a similar note, the county profiles will also start to be updated again when the new precinct numbers are released by the state.

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