Monday, March 12, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 84 (HD-84)

State House - District 84
Current Rep - Kurt Damrow (R-Port Austin) - Defeated in primary

Candidates:
GOP - Dan Grimshaw (R-Vassar)
DEM - Terry Brown (D-Pigeon)

Update - 5-27-2012 - This is going to be a very tough defense, and possibly our toughest non concession defense. Damrow's been in the news and has a strong primary challenger in Dan Grimshaw, Tuscola County Register of Deeds. In addition, Terry Brown wants to make a comeback. He almost survived 2010 as an incumbent. I'm calling this a tossup for now.

Update 8-30-2012 - This is still a tough defense but got easier. Terry Brown won the primary for the dems as expected, but Damrow got fired and from what I've heard, deserving so. Grimshaw's a good candidate and should do better than Damrow did, but Brown's still a popular guy there. Still a tossup.

Old District (84th)
Kurt Damrow - 15,183
Terry Brown - 15,153

This is an unchanged district covering Huron and Tuscola Counties in the thumb. It is a person over party district and a swing district if Terry Brown wants a rematch. The dems took this district with Brown back in 2006. The dems also came close in 2002. While national democrats who are social liberals are strongly disliked in the thumb, locals are much more competitive. Brown only lost because of 2010 as he ran well ahead of Obama (and remember that McCain quit Michigan). Tuscola County in particular was very unfriendly to all democrats, and Brown was caught up in that wave. Huron County though didn't turn on him like they did others. Small town politics often survives wave elections if one works hard enough.

I'm going to call this a swing district if Brown wants his old job back. If not, it can very between lean R and swing. I'm hearing about some grumblings up that way, so I'm not calling this one safe.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 8434 8367 16801 67 50.20% 49.80% 0.40%
Tuscola County 13740 13503 27243 237 50.43% 49.57% 0.87%



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0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 22174 21870 44044 304 50.35% 49.65% 0.69%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 9671 7629 17300 2042 55.90% 44.10% 11.80%
Tuscola County 15389 12631 28020 2758 54.92% 45.08% 9.84%



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Total 25060 20260 45320 4800 55.30% 44.70% 10.59%








Last State House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 5625 6481 12106 -856 46.46% 53.54% -7.07%
Tuscola County 9558 8672 18230 886 52.43% 47.57% 4.86%



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0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 15183 15153 30336 30 50.05% 49.95% 0.10%

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