Wednesday, March 21, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 94 (HD-94)

State House - District 94
Current Rep - Ken Horn (R - Frankenmuth) - Termed Out

Candidates:
GOP -  Tim Kelly (R-Saginaw)
Dem - Judith Lincoln (D-Saginaw)

Update 5-27-2012 - We have a three way primary here.

Update 8-30-2012 - Tim Kelly won the primary for this district.

Old District (94th)
Ken Horn - 24,362
Vince Mosca - 10,470

This is a soon to be open seat in rural and suburban Saginaw County. It has a bit of a moderate democrat history, but has been ours for awhile. Democrat Lew Dodak used to represent this area as speaker until Mike Goschka took the seat. It was heavily competitive in 1996 under similar borders when Goschka was termed out. Under slightly different borders, it was decided by 71 votes in 1998.

The old district covered Albee Twp, Birch Run Twp, Blumfield Twp, Chesaning Twp, Frankemuth, James Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Saginaw Twp (not city), St Charles Twp, Swan Creek, Taymouth Twp, and Thomas Twp. The new district drops Chesaning Twp, James Twp, and Maple Grove Twp to the old 85th District. It adds Tittabawassee Twp from the old 98th. I'd now call this a lean republican district that got less unsafe, but there's still a lot of yellow dog ticket splitters in these areas. Jim Barcia types do well here, and that's why I can't call this safe even with McCain winning the district. Most of these areas have split their tickets in the past, outside of Frankenmuth which is a GOP stronghold, and Albee and Taymouth Twps which almost always goes dem.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Albee Twp 417 645 1062 -228 39.27% 60.73% -21.47%
Birch Run Twp 1659 1581 3240 78 51.20% 48.80% 2.41%
Blumfield Twp 850 358 1208 492 70.36% 29.64% 40.73%
Frankenmuth 2163 1001 3164 1162 68.36% 31.64% 36.73%
Frankenmuth Twp 942 343 1285 599 73.31% 26.69% 46.61%
Saginaw Twp 11368 11944 23312 -576 48.76% 51.24% -2.47%
St Charles Twp 702 650 1352 52 51.92% 48.08% 3.85%
Swan Creek Twp 792 618 1410 174 56.17% 43.83% 12.34%
Taymouth Twp 952 1326 2278 -374 41.79% 58.21% -16.42%
Thomas Twp 4056 3181 7237 875 56.05% 43.95% 12.09%
Tittabawassee twp 2449 1992 4441 457 55.15% 44.85% 10.29%
Total 26350 23639 49989 2711 52.71% 47.29% 5.42%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Albee Twp 441 635 1076 -194 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Birch Run Twp 1761 1487 3248 274 54.22% 45.78% 8.44%
Blumfield Twp 896 362 1258 534 71.22% 28.78% 42.45%
Frankenmuth 2337 861 3198 1476 73.08% 26.92% 46.15%
Frankenmuth Twp 989 310 1299 679 76.14% 23.86% 52.27%
Saginaw Twp 12387 10810 23197 1577 53.40% 46.60% 6.80%
St Charles Twp 824 758 1582 66 52.09% 47.91% 4.17%
Swan Creek Twp 863 600 1463 263 58.99% 41.01% 17.98%
Taymouth Twp 1072 1258 2330 -186 46.01% 53.99% -7.98%
Thomas Twp 4302 2846 7148 1456 60.18% 39.82% 20.37%
Tittabawassee twp 2409 1573 3982 836 60.50% 39.50% 20.99%
Total 28281 21500 49781 6781 56.81% 43.19% 13.62%








Last St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Albee Twp 392 233 625 159 62.72% 37.28% 25.44%
Birch Run Twp 1552 597 2149 955 72.22% 27.78% 44.44%
Blumfield Twp 781 150 931 631 83.89% 16.11% 67.78%
Frankenmuth 2151 268 2419 1883 88.92% 11.08% 77.84%
Frankenmuth Twp 903 80 983 823 91.86% 8.14% 83.72%
Saginaw Twp 10371 5540 15911 4831 65.18% 34.82% 30.36%
St Charles Twp 662 304 966 358 68.53% 31.47% 37.06%
Swan Creek Twp 685 286 971 399 70.55% 29.45% 41.09%
Taymouth Twp 884 550 1434 334 61.65% 38.35% 23.29%
Thomas Twp 3774 1343 5117 2431 73.75% 26.25% 47.51%
Tittabawassee twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 22155 9351 31506 12804 70.32% 29.68% 40.64%

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