Monday, March 12, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 85 (HD-85)

State House - District 85
Current Rep - Ben Glardon (R-Owosso)

Candidates:
GOP - Ben Glardon (R-Owosso)
Dem - Paul Ray (D-Owosso)

Old District (85th)
Ben Glardon - 17,970
Pamela Drake - 11,059

This district has some changes to it. The old one was treading blue due to the Clinton County portion of the district. Bath Township, which borders East Lansing to the north, is in the process of going from a swing area 12 years ago, to solidly democrat due to the new MSU Student apartment complexes that are on Chandler Road. East Lansing itself is also annexing some property in Bath Township (and DeWitt Township which was in another district). Surprising to me, Glardon won Bath Twp, something that his predecessor did not do the last two elections. It made this an easy win for an open seat.

Shiawassee County is still a swing county, although more friendly to republicans than it used to be. The dems had this district a long time until Larry Julian took it narrowly in 1998. The west side of the county has more of a Lansing influence and the east side more of a Flint/Saginaw influence. There's still a large farming influence here which moderates the county influences. The county borders Livingston to the South, but the rural areas more reflect Livingston County in the 80's when it wasn't as republican, especially downticket (Farm influence). In short, it takes a lot of hard work by either side to win here.

The new district drops all of the Clinton County portion and instead adds rural areas in Saginaw County. Rural Saginaw County is quite interesting in its voting patterns. Some of those areas are strongly democrat. Others aren't and are quite republican such as Richland Twp (probably commuters to Saginaw or Midland who despise the city). The further northwest you go, generally the more GOP friendly the area is. The further south, the more democrat, especially Chesening.

I think the new district is more friendly in avoiding straight tickets, but could set up a problem if a social conservative populist democrat makes a run. They do well in Shiawassee County to begin with, and historically do very well in Southern Saginaw County. Rural Saginaw County districts have largely followed similar patterns as Shiawassee County. Dems have done well there downticket until recently. Mike Goschka and Jim Howell helped break through over there.

We may have had this district in one form or another since 1998, but it's not always been easy. Glardon's open seat win was the exception, not the rule. Richard Ball never won by over 4000 votes. Larry Julian had two easy wins, but his first election win was by 356 votes (in a district without Bath Twp).

Keep an eye on this one. I don't think it's competitive days are done yet. Slightly leaning R at best.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Shiawassee County 16268 19397 35665 -3129 45.61% 54.39% -8.77%
Saginaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brady Twp 481 629 1110 -148 43.33% 56.67% -13.33%
Brant Twp 583 487 1070 96 54.49% 45.51% 8.97%
Chapin Twp 220 208 428 12 51.40% 48.60% 2.80%
Chesening Twp 961 1502 2463 -541 39.02% 60.98% -21.97%
Fremont Twp 607 513 1120 94 54.20% 45.80% 8.39%
Jonesfield Twp 421 438 859 -17 49.01% 50.99% -1.98%
Lakefield Twp 288 281 569 7 50.62% 49.38% 1.23%
Maple Grove Twp 588 906 1494 -318 39.36% 60.64% -21.29%
Marion Twp 223 186 409 37 54.52% 45.48% 9.05%
Richland Twp 1390 955 2345 435 59.28% 40.72% 18.55%
Total 22030 25502 47532 -3472 46.35% 53.65% -7.30%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Shiawassee County 19407 16881 36288 2526 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Saginaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brady Twp 540 560 1100 -20 49.09% 50.91% -1.82%
Brant Twp 620 469 1089 151 56.93% 43.07% 13.87%
Chapin Twp 260 173 433 87 60.05% 39.95% 20.09%
Chesening Twp 1280 1328 2608 -48 49.08% 50.92% -1.84%
Fremont Twp 680 422 1102 258 61.71% 38.29% 23.41%
Jonesfield Twp 474 427 901 47 52.61% 47.39% 5.22%
Lakefield Twp 334 249 583 85 57.29% 42.71% 14.58%
Maple Grove Twp 731 798 1529 -67 47.81% 52.19% -4.38%
Marion Twp 240 159 399 81 60.15% 39.85% 20.30%
Richland Twp 1555 858 2413 697 64.44% 35.56% 28.89%
Total 26121 22324 48445 3797 53.92% 46.08% 7.84%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Shiawassee County 14441 8406 22847 6035 63.21% 36.79% 26.41%
Saginaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brady Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chapin Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chesening Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Fremont Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Jonesfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Lakefield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Maple Grove Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Marion Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Richland Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14441 8406 22847 6035 63.21% 36.79% 26.41%

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