Saturday, March 17, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 93 (HD-93)

State House - District 93
Current Rep - Paul Opsommer (R - DeWitt) - Termed Out

Candidates:
GOP - Tom Leonard (R-Lansing),
Dem - Paul Silva (D-St Johns)

Update - 5-27-2012 - This is a four way primary here. I'm familiar with two of the individuals running, and Tom Leonard has my support. I met Tom right after I left MSU and worked well with him during our time on the 8th District committee. While I'm fairly sure most of the republican candidates are conservative, Tom also understands the nuts and bolts of politics and will make sure those conservative ideas get implemented.

Update 8-30-2012 - Big win for Tom Leonard in a tough primary.

Old District (93rd)
Paul Opsommer - 22,287
Travis Lacelle - 9,476

The old district covered most of Clinton County and all of Gratiot County. Now it covers all of Clinton County and most of Gratiot County. This district got a bit tougher for us in 2012. Ten years ago, Clinton County was a base county for the GOP. That is no longer really the case. That came to a head when Obama won Clinton County after being a consistent 55-60% county. The problem for us is why Clinton County flipped. The reason is largely Bath Township. Bath Township went from being a swing area (Bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004 - one of the rare areas that happened) to basically being part of East Lansing. Take a drive north on Chandler Rd (Abbott) and you'll miss where East Lansing ends and Bath begins. East Lansing's also annexing some land Clinton County that was part of DeWitt and Bath Twps.

The new district picks up eastern Clinton County from the 85th district. Bath Township, along with Ovid and Victor Townships. It drops Seville Twp, St Louis, Alma, Pine River Twp, Bethany Twp, and Emerson Twp to the 70th District.

Keep an eye on this district. Opsommer was a very good candidate for the area and a good rep. He even won his portion of East Lansing in 2010. The only areas Opsommer ever lost was East Lansing in 08, and Alma (now in 70th), Hamilton Twp, Newark Twp, St Louis (now in 70th), Sumner Twp, Duplain Twp, and East Lansing in the open seat of 2006. He won easily in 06, but did struggle in Gratiot County.

The good news is that we a very good candidate for the open seat. Tom Leonard. I've worked with Tom on the 8th District committee. He's good people and a good candidate. He understands both the base areas of the county and the Lansing area, and should do better than most republicans in the MSU area of the district. Unlike Opsommer, he has less of a flank to be worried about in Gratiot County simply because Alma and St Louis are in another district (although Opsommer didn't have Bath and had less of East Lansing). He should keep this district ours for another six years. I'll call this lean republican, but if there's a year to be worried, it's this year with Obama's popularity with the college crowd and the straight ticket votes from that.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bath Twp 2303 3236 5539 -933 41.58% 58.42% -16.84%
Bengal Twp 384 264 648 120 59.26% 40.74% 18.52%
Bingham Twp 805 654 1459 151 55.17% 44.83% 10.35%
Dallas Twp 870 349 1219 521 71.37% 28.63% 42.74%
DeWitt  1300 1379 2679 -79 48.53% 51.47% -2.95%
DeWitt Twp 3604 4025 7629 -421 47.24% 52.76% -5.52%
Duplain Twp 523 643 1166 -120 44.85% 55.15% -10.29%
Eagle Twp 837 787 1624 50 51.54% 48.46% 3.08%
East Lansing 272 626 898 -354 30.29% 69.71% -39.42%
Essex Twp 515 447 962 68 53.53% 46.47% 7.07%
Grand Ledge

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp 621 601 1222 20 50.82% 49.18% 1.64%
Lebanon twp 186 111 297 75 62.63% 37.37% 25.25%
Olive Twp 792 654 1446 138 54.77% 45.23% 9.54%
Ovid Twp 832 928 1760 -96 47.27% 52.73% -5.45%
Riley Twp 613 560 1173 53 52.26% 47.74% 4.52%
St Johns 1748 1963 3711 -215 47.10% 52.90% -5.79%
Victor Twp 984 1034 2018 -50 48.76% 51.24% -2.48%
Watertown Twp 1554 1391 2945 163 52.77% 47.23% 5.53%
Westphalia Twp 983 353 1336 630 73.58% 26.42% 47.16%
Gratiot County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arcada Twp 428 432 860 -4 49.77% 50.23% -0.47%
Elba Twp 311 332 643 -21 48.37% 51.63% -3.27%
Fulton Twp 652 589 1241 63 52.54% 47.46% 5.08%
Hamilton Twp 114 87 201 27 56.72% 43.28% 13.43%
Ithaca 586 793 1379 -207 42.49% 57.51% -15.01%
Lafayette Twp 183 130 313 53 58.47% 41.53% 16.93%
New Haven Twp 231 219 450 12 51.33% 48.67% 2.67%
Newark Twp 202 224 426 -22 47.42% 52.58% -5.16%
North Shade Twp 177 106 283 71 62.54% 37.46% 25.09%
North Star Twp 220 237 457 -17 48.14% 51.86% -3.72%
Sumner Twp 368 463 831 -95 44.28% 55.72% -11.43%
Washington Twp 278 170 448 108 62.05% 37.95% 24.11%
Wheeler Twp 645 596 1241 49 51.97% 48.03% 3.95%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 24121 24383 48504 -262 49.73% 50.27% -0.54%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bath Twp 2338 2341 4679 -3 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Bengal Twp 472 202 674 270 70.03% 29.97% 40.06%
Bingham Twp 928 498 1426 430 65.08% 34.92% 30.15%
Dallas Twp 979 256 1235 723 79.27% 20.73% 58.54%
DeWitt  1521 1073 2594 448 58.64% 41.36% 17.27%
DeWitt Twp 4065 3273 7338 792 55.40% 44.60% 10.79%
Duplain Twp 629 548 1177 81 53.44% 46.56% 6.88%
Eagle Twp 910 552 1462 358 62.24% 37.76% 24.49%
East Lansing 136 265 401 -129 33.92% 66.08% -32.17%
Essex Twp 574 380 954 194 60.17% 39.83% 20.34%
Grand Ledge

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp 720 445 1165 275 61.80% 38.20% 23.61%
Lebanon twp 216 92 308 124 70.13% 29.87% 40.26%
Olive Twp 875 584 1459 291 59.97% 40.03% 19.95%
Ovid Twp 967 696 1663 271 58.15% 41.85% 16.30%
Riley Twp 737 421 1158 316 63.64% 36.36% 27.29%
St Johns 2206 1589 3795 617 58.13% 41.87% 16.26%
Victor Twp 1141 867 2008 274 56.82% 43.18% 13.65%
Watertown Twp 1568 1143 2711 425 57.84% 42.16% 15.68%
Westphalia Twp 1007 288 1295 719 77.76% 22.24% 55.52%
Gratiot County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arcada Twp 499 370 869 129 57.42% 42.58% 14.84%
Elba Twp 383 297 680 86 56.32% 43.68% 12.65%
Fulton Twp 724 488 1212 236 59.74% 40.26% 19.47%
Hamilton Twp 133 71 204 62 65.20% 34.80% 30.39%
Ithaca 785 636 1421 149 55.24% 44.76% 10.49%
Lafayette Twp 195 113 308 82 63.31% 36.69% 26.62%
New Haven Twp 275 166 441 109 62.36% 37.64% 24.72%
Newark Twp 246 185 431 61 57.08% 42.92% 14.15%
North Shade Twp 190 76 266 114 71.43% 28.57% 42.86%
North Star Twp 282 208 490 74 57.55% 42.45% 15.10%
Sumner Twp 433 353 786 80 55.09% 44.91% 10.18%
Washington Twp 280 157 437 123 64.07% 35.93% 28.15%
Wheeler Twp 777 491 1268 286 61.28% 38.72% 22.56%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 27191 19124 46315 8067 58.71% 41.29% 17.42%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Clinton County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bath Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bengal Twp 397 101 498 296 79.72% 20.28% 59.44%
Bingham Twp 823 267 1090 556 75.50% 24.50% 51.01%
Dallas Twp 746 126 872 620 85.55% 14.45% 71.10%
DeWitt  1323 553 1876 770 70.52% 29.48% 41.04%
DeWitt Twp 3536 1696 5232 1840 67.58% 32.42% 35.17%
Duplain Twp 475 261 736 214 64.54% 35.46% 29.08%
Eagle Twp 780 386 1166 394 66.90% 33.10% 33.79%
East Lansing 221 195 416 26 53.13% 46.88% 6.25%
Essex Twp 478 157 635 321 75.28% 24.72% 50.55%
Grand Ledge

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp 618 249 867 369 71.28% 28.72% 42.56%
Lebanon twp 175 43 218 132 80.28% 19.72% 60.55%
Olive Twp 733 349 1082 384 67.74% 32.26% 35.49%
Ovid Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Riley Twp 602 258 860 344 70.00% 30.00% 40.00%
St Johns 1702 778 2480 924 68.63% 31.37% 37.26%
Victor Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Watertown Twp 1442 657 2099 785 68.70% 31.30% 37.40%
Westphalia Twp 826 144 970 682 85.15% 14.85% 70.31%
Gratiot County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arcada Twp 401 164 565 237 70.97% 29.03% 41.95%
Elba Twp 263 139 402 124 65.42% 34.58% 30.85%
Fulton Twp 600 253 853 347 70.34% 29.66% 40.68%
Hamilton Twp 96 44 140 52 68.57% 31.43% 37.14%
Ithaca 594 275 869 319 68.35% 31.65% 36.71%
Lafayette Twp 148 40 188 108 78.72% 21.28% 57.45%
New Haven Twp 188 82 270 106 69.63% 30.37% 39.26%
Newark Twp 182 81 263 101 69.20% 30.80% 38.40%
North Shade Twp 148 43 191 105 77.49% 22.51% 54.97%
North Star Twp 214 92 306 122 69.93% 30.07% 39.87%
Sumner Twp 324 145 469 179 69.08% 30.92% 38.17%
Washington Twp 243 64 307 179 79.15% 20.85% 58.31%
Wheeler Twp 586 217 803 369 72.98% 27.02% 45.95%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 18864 7859 26723 11005 70.59% 29.41% 41.18%

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