Saturday, January 23, 2010

Michigan 9th District (MI-09) Updated

Edit 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 9th District - Congress

Incumbent - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2
Cook District Numbers - D+2

GOP Candidates - Andrew Rocky Raczkowski
Dem Candidate - Gary Peters

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 56%
McCain - 43%

2004:
Bush - 51%
Kerry – 49%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%



I said a long time ago that the redistricters had their heads up their butts when they drew this district. This district made things difficult for Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg had a history of running much further ahead of the top of the ticket. He had a difficult district in the 1990's that included Southfield, which has gone from voting for Dukakis by 5000 votes to voting for Obama by 33,000 votes. Southfield used to be largely Catholic and Jewish with some blacks in the 1980's. Now, it's mostly black. Southfield was rightly given to Sander Levin's district. Knollenberg had to take Pontiac. That along makes up a 15,000 deficit. What was very bleeping stupid is Levin giving of Royal Oak to Knollenberg. Why? Royal Oak was blue and getting bluer for years. Levin should have kept Royal Oak, and give the rest of Sterling Heights to Miller. Knollenberg could have taken some of those northern townships from Mike Rogers instead. If that was the case, he'd possibly still be in office protecting the auto industry.

The 9th District is all in Oakland County. It contains Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Farmington Hills, Farmington, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Oakland Twp, Orchard Lake, part of Orion Twp, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Royal Oak, Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Sylvan Lake, Troy, part of Waterford Twp, and West Bloomfield.

Knollenberg's secret is running even in West Bloomfield, and winning Farmington Hills, while racking up big margins in the Bloomfields to overcome Pontiac (and Southfield in the old district). It worked for a long time.

Most of the 9th comes from the old 11th district which Knollenberg represented. It went for Clinton and Gore, so the old 11th was more democrat than the current 9th. The rest was from mostly republican areas in the old 9th and 12th districts, except Royal Oak and Pontiac are major exceptions. I think the republicans were more interesting in hurting David Bonior than they were helping Knollenberg. They wanted most of Bonior's old base in Levin's district. If they gave Royal Oak and Berkley to Levin, it would probably put Clinton Twp or the Southern part of Sterling Heights with Miller's district. I'd have taken that trade in a minute. Then again, it wasn't my call. There were a lot of internal redistricting battles that hurt a few reps who wanted to run.

Current 9th District:
Auburn Hills - Was in old 9th
Berkley - Was in old 12th
Birmingham - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Hills - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Twp - Was in old 11th
Clawson - Was in old 12th
Farmington Hills - Was in old 11th
Farmington - Was in old 11th
Keego Harbor - Was in old 11th
Lake Angeles - Was in old 9th
Oakland Twp - Was in old 9th
Orchard Lake - Was in old 11th
part of Orion Twp Was in old 9th
Pontiac - Was in old 9th
Rochester - Was in old 9th
Rochester Hills - Was in old 9th
Royal Oak - Was in old 12th
Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin) - Was in old 11th
Sylvan Lake - Was in old 11th
Troy - Was in old 12th
part of Waterford Twp - Was in old 9th
West Bloomfield - Was in old 11th


Former 11th
Commerce Twp - Now in current 11th
Highland Twp - Now in current 11th
Lathrup Village- Now in current12th
Lyon Twp - Now in current 11th
Milford Twp - Now in current 11th
City of Northville (Oakland) - Now in current 11th
City of Novi - Now in current 11th
Novi Twp - Now in current 11th
South Lyon - Now in current 11th
City of Southfield (most) - Now in current 12th
Walled Lake - Now in current 11th
White Lake - Now in current 11th
Wixom - Now in current 11th
Livonia - Now in current 11th
Redford Twp - Now in current 11th

Most of that wasn't bad. What was bad was Royal Oak. It really would not have mattered in the end since the last race was a 33,000 vote spread Royal Oak was 6000 of that, Berkley 2800), and Independence Twp, Orion, and Oxford couldn't makeup the rest. What it might have done however is scare off Peters, and give Knollenberg a better cushion in 2006. Knollenberg would possibly survived Nancy Skinner again.

Knollenberg survived easily until 2006, consistently winning with about 58% of the vote. 2006 was a nailbiter, and that got Gary Peters, one of the strongest farm club members of the dems, to run. Obama cleaned up in this mostly wealthy (Pontiac the big exception) district, and Peters rode the wave.

The Republicans have a few candidates looking to take the seat back. Their best shot is Andrew Rocky Raczkowski. As a former state rep, Rocky won the tough Farmington Hills based state house district three times, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi, a local legend there who replaced him. Rocky works for us. He's recently back home after stints in Afghanastan and Somalia. Rocky can adapt to either the business crowd or the movement conservatives and I think is one of the few candidates who, if given some help, give Peters more than a run for his money.


Here's the 08 results. It wasn't close. Ticket splitting areas went straight donkey, solid GOP areas were competitive, and the lean democrat areas upped their margins to the stratosphere. There were a lot of 3rd party defectors in this race, and I think it was the bailout that put the nail in the coffin.


2008 Election
Knollenberg
Peters
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills
3,310
5,535
611
       9,456
-2225
35.00%
58.53%
-23.53%
City of Berkley
3,264
5,080
711
       9,055
-1816
36.05%
56.10%
-20.06%
City of Birmingham
6,172
5,584
462
     12,218
588
50.52%
45.70%
4.81%
Bloomfield Hills
1,613
967
88
       2,668
646
60.46%
36.24%
24.21%
Bloomfield Twp
14,940
11,235
851
     27,026
3705
55.28%
41.57%
13.71%
City of Clawson
2,718
3,529
523
       6,770
-811
40.15%
52.13%
-11.98%
Farmington
2,343
2,929
282
       5,554
-586
42.19%
52.74%
-10.55%
Farmington Hills
16,909
24,287
1984
     43,180
-7378
39.16%
56.25%
-17.09%
Keego Harbor
489
676
126
       1,291
-187
37.88%
52.36%
-14.48%
Lake Angeles
201
48
3
         252
153
79.76%
19.05%
60.71%
Oakland Twp
5,692
3,344
453
       9,489
2348
59.99%
35.24%
24.74%
Orchard Lake
821
562
63
       1,446
259
56.78%
38.87%
17.91%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
424
424
110
         958
0
44.26%
44.26%
0.00%
Orion 9
573
507
78
       1,158
66
49.48%
43.78%
5.70%
Orion 11
347
352
69
         768
-5
45.18%
45.83%
-0.65%
Orion 14
404
274
48
         726
130
55.65%
37.74%
17.91%
Orion 916avcb
520
538
74
       1,132
-18
45.94%
47.53%
-1.59%
Pontiac
2,585
18,908
1018
     22,511
-16323
11.48%
83.99%
-72.51%
Rochester
3,272
3,031
372
       6,675
241
49.02%
45.41%
3.61%
Rochester Hills
18,728
17,320
1979
     38,027
1408
49.25%
45.55%
3.70%
City of Royal Oak
11,311
17,518
2359
     31,188
-6207
36.27%
56.17%
-19.90%
Southfield Twp
4,743
4,313
321
       9,377
430
50.58%
46.00%
4.59%
Sylvan Lake
510
504
70
       1,084
6
47.05%
46.49%
0.55%
Troy
20,643
19,407
1961
     42,011
1236
49.14%
46.20%
2.94%
Waterford Twp
13,279
16,277
2525
     32,081
-2998
41.39%
50.74%
-9.35%
Waterford 1



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0
#DIV/0!
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Waterford 3



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0
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Waterford 5



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0
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Waterford 930av



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0
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West Bloomfield Twp
14,224
20,362
1492
     36,078
-6138
39.43%
56.44%
-17.01%









Total
150,035
183,511
18,633
352,179
-33476
42.60%
52.11%
-9.51%


2006 was a nailbiter and showed the danger signs that started in the 2004 presidential race. Knollenberg here still had the ticket splitters in democrat strongholds like West Bloomfield that saved him.


2006 Election
Knollenberg
Skinner
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills
2,965
3,386
192
       6,543
-421
45.32%
51.75%
-6.43%
City of Berkley
3,082
3,729
193
       7,004
-647
44.00%
53.24%
-9.24%
City of Birmingham
5,565
4,186
184
       9,935
1379
56.01%
42.13%
13.88%
Bloomfield Hills
1,503
654
29
       2,186
849
68.76%
29.92%
38.84%
Bloomfield Twp
14,138
8,221
376
     22,735
5917
62.19%
36.16%
26.03%
City of Clawson
2,636
2,600
176
       5,412
36
48.71%
48.04%
0.67%
Farmington
2,520
1,948
102
       4,570
572
55.14%
42.63%
12.52%
Farmington Hills
16,402
16,476
660
     33,538
-74
48.91%
49.13%
-0.22%
Keego Harbor
440
452
41
         933
-12
47.16%
48.45%
-1.29%
Lake Angeles
189
30
2
         221
159
85.52%
13.57%
71.95%
Oakland Twp
5,145
2,256
158
       7,559
2889
68.06%
29.85%
38.22%
Orchard Lake
755
403
20
       1,178
352
64.09%
34.21%
29.88%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
446
318
30
         794
128
56.17%
40.05%
16.12%
Orion 9
571
331
20
         922
240
61.93%
35.90%
26.03%
Orion 11
359
255
27
         641
104
56.01%
39.78%
16.22%
Orion 14
378
220
18
         616
158
61.36%
35.71%
25.65%
Orion 916avcb
408
294
13
         715
114
57.06%
41.12%
15.94%
Pontiac
2,760
12,640
316
     15,716
-9880
17.56%
80.43%
-62.87%
Rochester
3,087
1,917
98
       5,102
1170
60.51%
37.57%
22.93%
Rochester Hills
17,560
11,642
662
     29,864
5918
58.80%
38.98%
19.82%
City of Royal Oak
10,903
12,807
729
     24,439
-1904
44.61%
52.40%
-7.79%
Southfield Twp
4,606
3,338
125
       8,069
1268
57.08%
41.37%
15.71%
Sylvan Lake
501
432
26
         959
69
52.24%
45.05%
7.19%
Troy
19,017
13,323
705
     33,045
5694
57.55%
40.32%
17.23%
Waterford Twp
13,128
11,116
733
     24,977
2012
52.56%
44.50%
8.06%
Waterford 1



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0
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Waterford 3



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0
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Waterford 5



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0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av



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0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp
13,324
14,646
525
     28,495
-1322
46.76%
51.40%
-4.64%









Total
142,388
127,620
6,160
276,168
14768
51.56%
46.21%
5.35%


2004 and 2002 were easy wins for Knollenberg. I'm not going to post them here because Peters is now the rep. Instead I'll post the 2002 results in the district between Mike Cox and Gary Peters. Cox won statewide by 5500 votes. Cox won Oakland County overall, but it was close and due more to South Lyon and that area than the district. Shockingly to me, Cox won Farmington Hills and almost stole Royal Oak. Cox actually did better than these numbers, because I'm not sure which Waterford Absentees were from the 9th. The absentee voters went for Peters, and all of them were included here.


2002 Election
Cox
Peters
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills
2,488
2,699
165
       5,352
-211
46.49%
50.43%
-3.94%
City of Berkley
3,007
3,334
193
       6,534
-327
46.02%
51.03%
-5.00%
City of Birmingham
5,059
3,595
188
       8,842
1464
57.22%
40.66%
16.56%
Bloomfield Hills
1,324
629
30
       1,983
695
66.77%
31.72%
35.05%
Bloomfield Twp
12,716
8,039
356
     21,111
4677
60.23%
38.08%
22.15%
City of Clawson
2,498
2,205
177
       4,880
293
51.19%
45.18%
6.00%
Farmington
2,265
1,781
97
       4,143
484
54.67%
42.99%
11.68%
Farmington Hills
14,811
14,447
697
     29,955
364
49.44%
48.23%
1.22%
Keego Harbor
321
350
37
         708
-29
45.34%
49.44%
-4.10%
Lake Angeles
155
29
4
         188
126
82.45%
15.43%
67.02%
Oakland Twp
3,885
1,677
125
       5,687
2208
68.31%
29.49%
38.83%
Orchard Lake
688
352
20
       1,060
336
64.91%
33.21%
31.70%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
336
223
16
         575
113
58.43%
38.78%
19.65%
Orion 9
540
240
17
         797
300
67.75%
30.11%
37.64%
Orion 11
286
203
27
         516
83
55.43%
39.34%
16.09%
Orion 14
334
175
12
         521
159
64.11%
33.59%
30.52%
Orion 916avcb
264
217
13
         494
47
53.44%
43.93%
9.51%
Pontiac
2,323
10,604
295
     13,222
-8281
17.57%
80.20%
-62.63%
Rochester
2,451
1,640
87
       4,178
811
58.66%
39.25%
19.41%
Rochester Hills
15,688
9,998
521
     26,207
5690
59.86%
38.15%
21.71%
City of Royal Oak
11,261
11,532
767
     23,560
-271
47.80%
48.95%
-1.15%
Southfield Twp
4,233
3,111
116
       7,460
1122
56.74%
41.70%
15.04%
Sylvan Lake
458
372
21
         851
86
53.82%
43.71%
10.11%
Troy
17,044
10,848
541
     28,433
6196
59.94%
38.15%
21.79%
Waterford Twp
12,367
10,108
610
     23,085
2259
53.57%
43.79%
9.79%
Waterford 1
-469
-277
-28
        (774)
-192
60.59%
35.79%
24.81%
Waterford 3
-302
-214
-17
        (533)
-88
56.66%
40.15%
16.51%
Waterford 5
-402
-289
-21
        (712)
-113
56.46%
40.59%
15.87%
Waterford 930av



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp
11,106
13,504
775
     25,385
-2398
43.75%
53.20%
-9.45%









Total
126,735
111,132
5,841
243,708
15603
52.00%
45.60%
6.40%


In the presidential race, this district has gotten more and more blue. It's a combination of smaller margins in formerly republican strongholds, more votes in Pontiac, and emerging areas that were competitive, no longer competitive at all. Kerry actually did much better than Gore in this district. The other reason is that even though Bush did better in Oakland County in 2004 overall than 2000 (which most don't know), it wasn't in this district (Rogers and McCotter's district had the improvements) which is what most people think of with Oakland County.The numbers are slightly off due to absentees.


2000 Election
Bush
Gore
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills
3,408
3,913
227
       7,548
-505
45.15%
51.84%
-6.69%
City of Berkley
3,860
4,400
312
       8,572
-540
45.03%
51.33%
-6.30%
City of Birmingham
6,729
4,925
307
     11,961
1804
56.26%
41.18%
15.08%
Bloomfield Hills
1,804
777
44
       2,625
1027
68.72%
29.60%
39.12%
Bloomfield Twp
16,304
9,530
518
     26,352
6774
61.87%
36.16%
25.71%
City of Clawson
3,116
3,332
249
       6,697
-216
46.53%
49.75%
-3.23%
Farmington
2,796
2,442
179
       5,417
354
51.62%
45.08%
6.53%
Farmington Hills
19,164
20,337
910
     40,411
-1173
47.42%
50.33%
-2.90%
Keego Harbor
522
588
36
       1,146
-66
45.55%
51.31%
-5.76%
Lake Angeles
203
23
2
         228
180
89.04%
10.09%
78.95%
Oakland Twp
4,823
2,219
181
       7,223
2604
66.77%
30.72%
36.05%
Orchard Lake
870
471
38
       1,379
399
63.09%
34.16%
28.93%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
363
363
26
         752
0
48.27%
48.27%
0.00%
Orion 9
708
368
23
       1,099
340
64.42%
33.48%
30.94%
Orion 11
437
402
23
         862
35
50.70%
46.64%
4.06%
Orion 14
373
230
9
         612
143
60.95%
37.58%
23.37%
Orion 916avcb



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Pontiac
3,360
15,182
338
     18,880
-11822
17.80%
80.41%
-62.62%
Rochester
3,270
2,153
179
       5,602
1117
58.37%
38.43%
19.94%
Rochester Hills
21,011
13,474
789
     35,274
7537
59.57%
38.20%
21.37%
City of Royal Oak
14,689
16,435
1185
     32,309
-1746
45.46%
50.87%
-5.40%
Southfield Twp
5,133
3,721
268
       9,122
1412
56.27%
40.79%
15.48%
Sylvan Lake
583
485
37
       1,105
98
52.76%
43.89%
8.87%
Troy
22,775
15,463
886
     39,124
7312
58.21%
39.52%
18.69%
Waterford Twp
16,629
15,280
845
     32,754
1349
50.77%
46.65%
4.12%
Waterford 1
-548
-500
-34
      (1,082)
-48
50.65%
46.21%
4.44%
Waterford 3
-344
-382
-20
        (746)
38
46.11%
51.21%
-5.09%
Waterford 5
-491
-414
-24
        (929)
-77
52.85%
44.56%
8.29%
Waterford 930av



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp
14,222
19,016
627
     33,865
-4794
42.00%
56.15%
-14.16%









Total
165,769
154,233
8,160
328,162
11536
50.51%
47.00%
3.52%


2004 showed a dem uptick.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills
4,089
4,724
97
       8,910
-635
45.89%
53.02%
-7.13%
City of Berkley
4,315
5,027
108
       9,450
-712
45.66%
53.20%
-7.53%
City of Birmingham
6,772
5,508
101
     12,381
1264
54.70%
44.49%
10.21%
Bloomfield Hills
1,802
951
24
       2,777
851
64.89%
34.25%
30.64%
Bloomfield Twp
16,314
11,197
208
     27,719
5117
58.85%
40.39%
18.46%
City of Clawson
3,584
3,471
66
       7,121
113
50.33%
48.74%
1.59%
Farmington
2,873
2,680
74
       5,627
193
51.06%
47.63%
3.43%
Farmington Hills
20,019
22,931
381
     43,331
-2912
46.20%
52.92%
-6.72%
Keego Harbor
554
590
13
       1,157
-36
47.88%
50.99%
-3.11%
Lake Angeles
217
43
3
         263
174
82.51%
16.35%
66.16%
Oakland Twp
6,212
2,898
91
       9,201
3314
67.51%
31.50%
36.02%
Orchard Lake
938
580
7
       1,525
358
61.51%
38.03%
23.48%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
584
420
7
       1,011
164
57.76%
41.54%
16.22%
Orion 9
785
438
13
       1,236
347
63.51%
35.44%
28.07%
Orion 11
456
348
13
         817
108
55.81%
42.59%
13.22%
Orion 14
479
252
6
         737
227
64.99%
34.19%
30.80%
Orion 916avcb
553
384
16
         953
169
58.03%
40.29%
17.73%
Pontiac
4,499
17,759
163
     22,421
-13260
20.07%
79.21%
-59.14%
Rochester
3,979
2,647
60
       6,686
1332
59.51%
39.59%
19.92%
Rochester Hills
22,733
15,571
354
     38,658
7162
58.81%
40.28%
18.53%
City of Royal Oak
15,529
19,143
410
     35,082
-3614
44.26%
54.57%
-10.30%
Southfield Twp
5,245
4,346
81
       9,672
899
54.23%
44.93%
9.29%
Sylvan Lake
647
529
16
       1,192
118
54.28%
44.38%
9.90%
Troy
24,171
18,175
418
     42,764
5996
56.52%
42.50%
14.02%
Waterford Twp
19,965
16,507
345
     36,817
3458
54.23%
44.84%
9.39%
Waterford 1
-719
-423
-13
      (1,155)
-296
62.25%
36.62%
25.63%
Waterford 3
-401
-349
-8
        (758)
-52
52.90%
46.04%
6.86%
Waterford 5
-639
-484
-10
      (1,133)
-155
56.40%
42.72%
13.68%
Waterford 930av



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West Bloomfield Twp
16,150
20,317
247
     36,714
-4167
43.99%
55.34%
-11.35%









Total
181,705
176,180
3,291
361,176
5525
50.31%
48.78%
1.53%


2008 showed a blowout. When you quit the state, and tell us that the auto industry isn't coming back, along with Bush not being all that great of friend to the auto industry, and people having a throw the bums out mentality in 06 (The Republican Congress should have listened to Pence in 06. I told you so.) and 08, it doesn't look good. Here's why Knollenberg had no chance in 08.


2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Oakland County:



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City of Auburn Hills
3,577
5,823
152
       9,552
-2246
37.45%
60.96%
-23.51%
City of Berkley
3,560
5,715
143
       9,418
-2155
37.80%
60.68%
-22.88%
City of Birmingham
5,900
6,492
154
     12,546
-592
47.03%
51.75%
-4.72%
Bloomfield Hills
1,580
1,112
19
       2,711
468
58.28%
41.02%
17.26%
Bloomfield Twp
14,368
12,886
257
     27,511
1482
52.23%
46.84%
5.39%
City of Clawson
2,998
3,912
142
       7,052
-914
42.51%
55.47%
-12.96%
Farmington
2,416
3,183
102
       5,701
-767
42.38%
55.83%
-13.45%
Farmington Hills
17,028
26,862
541
     44,431
-9834
38.32%
60.46%
-22.13%
Keego Harbor
525
804
20
       1,349
-279
38.92%
59.60%
-20.68%
Lake Angeles
201
59
1
         261
142
77.01%
22.61%
54.41%
Oakland Twp
5,965
3,679
139
       9,783
2286
60.97%
37.61%
23.37%
Orchard Lake
821
648
11
       1,480
173
55.47%
43.78%
11.69%
Orion Twp:



            -  
0
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#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Orion 8
494
477
22
         993
17
49.75%
48.04%
1.71%
Orion 9
608
581
20
       1,209
27
50.29%
48.06%
2.23%
Orion 11
400
399
14
         813
1
49.20%
49.08%
0.12%
Orion 14
423
319
13
         755
104
56.03%
42.25%
13.77%
Orion 916avcb
598
538
18
       1,154
60
51.82%
46.62%
5.20%
Pontiac
2,799
19,980
205
     22,984
-17181
12.18%
86.93%
-74.75%
Rochester
3,515
3,319
88
       6,922
196
50.78%
47.95%
2.83%
Rochester Hills
19,919
18,834
570
     39,323
1085
50.65%
47.90%
2.76%
City of Royal Oak
13,094
21,650
684
     35,428
-8556
36.96%
61.11%
-24.15%
Southfield Twp
4,570
4,925
93
       9,588
-355
47.66%
51.37%
-3.70%
Sylvan Lake
551
558
17
       1,126
-7
48.93%
49.56%
-0.62%
Troy
21,230
21,517
629
     43,376
-287
48.94%
49.61%
-0.66%
Waterford Twp
16,968
19,134
720
     36,822
-2166
46.08%
51.96%
-5.88%
Waterford 1
-537
-475
-14
      (1,026)
-62
52.34%
46.30%
6.04%
Waterford 3
-339
-380
-23
        (742)
41
45.69%
51.21%
-5.53%
Waterford 5
-429
-527
-24
        (980)
98
43.78%
53.78%
-10.00%
Waterford 930av



            -  
0
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#DIV/0!
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West Bloomfield Twp
13,967
22,730
344
     37,041
-8763
37.71%
61.36%
-23.66%









Total
156,770
204,754
5,057
366,581
-47984
42.77%
55.86%
-13.09%


The farm club has some tough seats.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.


St Senate 26th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Seiferlein/Cherry
41445
65771

   107,216
-24326
38.66%
61.34%
-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry
37852
47848

     85,700
-9996
44.17%
55.83%
-11.66%

St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....


St. Senate 15th
GOP
Dem






06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski
66,524
45,782
3101
   115,407
20742
57.64%
39.67%
17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson
57,583
35,305
2340
     95,228
22278
60.47%
37.07%
23.39%


St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.


St Senate 14th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Bellinger/Jacobs 26571 78346 3114    108,031 -51775 24.60% 72.52% -47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs 28249 65538 2030      95,817 -37289 29.48% 68.40% -38.92%


St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.


St Senate 13th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin 57,204 56,484 3129    116,817 720 48.97% 48.35% 0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt 63,793 37,222
   101,015 26571 63.15% 36.85% 26.30%


St Senate 12 - Covers Addison Twp, City of Auburn Hills, City of Clarkston, Independence Twp, City of Keego Harbor, City of Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, City of Pontiac, City of Rochester, City of Rochester Hills, City of Sylvan Lake, and less than a precinct of West Bloomfield. This district is split between the 8th and 9th. Mike Bishop is termed out and running for Attorney General. Slightly Republican leaning, but anything with Pontiac and Auburn Hills is dangerous, because a turnout war can do what Obama did in the 8th Congressional. Luckily Rochester Hills doesn't go for Pontiac types of democrats (union/populist). It's an open seat in 2010. 


St Senate 12th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
06 - Bishop/Barrera
59,498
43,069
3048
   105,615
16429
56.33%
40.78%
15.56%
02 - Bishop/Werth
54,569
32,412

     86,981
22157
62.74%
37.26%
25.47%

St Rep 46 - Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County. This is one of the most Republican seats in Oakland County.


St Rep 46th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Marleau/Houston
29,257
19,042

     48,299
10215
60.57%
39.43%
21.15%
06 - Marleau/Pearson
23,744
15,197

     38,941
8547
60.97%
39.03%
21.95%
04 - Marleau/Myslakowski
30,064
17,593

     47,657
12471
63.08%
36.92%
26.17%
02 - Johnson/Reading
21,582
8,866

     30,448
12716
70.88%
29.12%
41.76%


St Rep 45th - Covers Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Twp. Solidly Republican, although less so in recent years. All of this district is in the 9th.


St Rep 45th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - McMillin/Young 29,450 21,785
     51,235 7665 57.48% 42.52% 14.96%
06 - Garfield/Werth 24,211 16,385
     40,596 7826 59.64% 40.36% 19.28%
04 - Garfield/Werth 31,993 17,363 1326      50,682 14630 63.12% 34.26% 28.87%
02 - Garfield/Kanaras 23,518 10,699
     34,217 12819 68.73% 31.27% 37.46%


St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.

St Rep 44th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie
33,266
16,683

     49,949
16583
66.60%
33.40%
33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie
27,124
13,264

     40,388
13860
67.16%
32.84%
34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase
33,596
14,498
1400
     49,494
19098
67.88%
29.29%
38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan
22,788
9,748

     32,536
13040
70.04%
29.96%
40.08%


St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.


St Rep 43rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson 20,219 19,373 1460      41,052 846 49.25% 47.19% 2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell 19,292 13,406
     32,698 5886 59.00% 41.00% 18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson 23,665 18,193
     41,858 5472 56.54% 43.46% 13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino 14,788 13,157
     27,945 1631 52.92% 47.08% 5.84%

St Rep 41st - Covers Clawson and Troy - Leans Republican, but like the Rochester seat, not as much as it was. In fact, Peters split this district nearly 50/50. Marty Knollenberg, Joe's son, is the current state rep here. He's won two terms and has a 3rd in 2010. This could possibly be competitive in 2012 depending on what happens with redistricting.


St Rep 41st GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - M.Knollenberg/Treharne 27,211 19,649
     46,860 7562 58.07% 41.93% 16.14%
06 - M.Knollenberg/Gregory 21,673 15,479
     37,152 6194 58.34% 41.66% 16.67%
04 - Gosselin/Blundo 26,767 19,674
     46,441 7093 57.64% 42.36% 15.27%
02 - Pappageorge/Fischer 22,631 9,514 667      32,812 13117 68.97% 29.00% 39.98%


St Rep 40th - Covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, Southfield Twp, and Sylvan Lake. This district leans GOP, but not overwhelmingly so. Chuck Moss is a two term incumbent with one term left. This could have an outside chance of being competitive in 2012 depending on redistricting.


St Rep 40th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Moss/Candler 31,312 19,751 1278      52,341 11561 59.82% 37.74% 22.09%
06 - Moss/Jafly 28,095 14,883
     42,978 13212 65.37% 34.63% 30.74%
04 - Taub 39,231

     39,231 39231 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%
02 - Taub/Weisberg 25,625 15,435
     41,060 10190 62.41% 37.59% 24.82%


St Rep 39th - Covers Commerce Twp and part of West Bloomfield. This seat leaned democrat at the top of the ticket for a long time, but went GOP several times down ticket. Commerce Twp saved us in 2004 and 2006, but it caught up with us in 2008. Lisa Brown, who almost won in 2006, won the open seat in 2008. Hopefully, the democrat 2010 backlash strikes here. We'll see.


St Rep 39th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Peterman/Brown 22,725 25,437 1133      49,295 -2712 46.10% 51.60% -5.50%
06 - Law/Brown 19,563 19,387
     38,950 176 50.23% 49.77% 0.45%
04 - Law/Schwartz 24,998 21,618 1092      47,708 3380 52.40% 45.31% 7.08%
02 - Shulman/Brickman 19,691 12,722
     32,413 6969 60.75% 39.25% 21.50%

St Rep 37th - Covers Farmington and Farmington Hills - This district leans democrat, but was won by Rocky Raczkowski three times in 96, 98, and 2000. Vicki Barnett won the open seat for the democrats in 2008 in an easier than supposed to have been race. Paul Welday didn't get the help that he needed and was largely left on his own. 


St Rep 37th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Welday/Barnett 18,954 28,575
     47,529 -9621 39.88% 60.12% -20.24%
06 - Malaney/Vagnozzi 14,375 23,177
     37,552 -8802 38.28% 61.72% -23.44%
04 - Largent/Vagnozzi 20,468 26,730
     47,198 -6262 43.37% 56.63% -13.27%
02 - Knol/Vagnozzi 16,290 17,976
     34,266 -1686 47.54% 52.46% -4.92%


St Rep 29th - Covers Pontiac and Auburn Hills - Solidly Democrat seat.  Tim Melton is the two term incumbent.


St Rep 29th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Sampeer/Melton 5,074 25,700
     30,774 -20626 16.49% 83.51% -67.02%
06 - March/Melton 4,131 16,591 1110      21,832 -12460 18.92% 75.99% -57.07%
04 - Moffett/Phillips 7,607 22,272 1400      31,279 -14665 24.32% 71.20% -46.88%
02 - March/Phillips 4,292 13,675
     17,967 -9383 23.89% 76.11% -52.22%

St Rep 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge. Probably the most liberal district in the state outside of Ann Arbor. Only the major minority areas are more democrat.


St Rep 27th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton 10,099 31,758 2616      44,473 -21659 22.71% 71.41% -48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner 7,303 27,285
     34,588 -19982 21.11% 78.89% -57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner 10,755 32,447 1188      44,390 -21692 24.23% 73.10% -48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner 7,927 21,037 875      29,839 -13110 26.57% 70.50% -43.94%


St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan 15,471 28,003 1885      45,359 -12532 34.11% 61.74% -27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan 12,357 22,079 1057      35,493 -9722 34.82% 62.21% -27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan 20,954 22,780 2682      46,416 -1826 45.14% 49.08% -3.93%
02 - West/Woodward 11,697 19,058 722      31,477 -7361 37.16% 60.55% -23.39%

Now the 9th district is unpredictable for 2010. One issue trumps all. The economy. The auto industry took an ass kicking in 2008, and 2009. The Bloomfields are known for auto executives. Auburn Hills was Chrysler's HQ, not just the home of the Pistons. Pontiac is a former GM town. Lake Orion (largely 8th district) has a GM plant, for now. With the 250,000 jobs estimated that are eliminated from GM due to decisions made by Obama's appointees, how will that impact this district? Cap and trade is not popular here, even though the environment is big issue in these parts. The social issues are downplayed right now, and that favors republicans in this district. This is Romney's old home. This is his territory. This is the closest district to the pundits stereotype of Oakland County (which I used to buy into until I took a closer look at the numbers). It takes a balancing act to win here between business, the social liberal independents, and the populists which while aren't as numerous here as neighboring Macomb County, still are a factor in very important Waterford. The base is still quite important as well. The populism in this district has certainly increased since the bank bailouts and auto industry crisis. How will Peters and Rocky handle that? That's the question, and probably what will determine what happens in 2010. Rocky's a fighter, like another more famous Rocky. That's one of the big reasons why I like his odds in 2010. He's won tough districts in the past, and the 9th overall is easier than his old 37th district.

1 comment:

A Conservative Teacher said...

Go Rocky! I support you! Peters must go, and must be held accountable for his vote on cap-and-trade, which attacked the manufacturing in our district.