Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Dems think they'll take 3 congressional seats here - ain't gonna happen.

Pravda aka the Free Press, wrote a cheerleading piece for the dems. They think they'll win three congressional seats in Michigan - the 8th, 9th, and 11th. I got news for them. It's not gonna happen.

The 9th - Four democrats want a shot at Joe Knollenberg. This will be a very competitive district when it is open, but Knollenberg never has a problem here. He always wins with 58% and polls well in democrat leaning areas like Farmington Hills and West Bloomfield. Pontiac is a problem, but most of the district isn't there. The dems frontrunner is Air America leftist talk show host Nancy Skinner, who finished LAST or near last in the 04 primary as a US Senate candidate - in Illinois. All Joe needs to do is go back in the archives of her show and find her greatest hits.

The 11th - Another leftist talk show is running, this time Tony Trupiano. He's taking on Thad McCotter. McCotter is a plain spoken, but very intelligent congressman who fits the district well. He runs well in Livonia and in the Wayne County portion which leans democrat. Unless Trupiano gets super big margins as in near 70% in Westland, Wayne, and Redford, no chance. All McCotter needs to do is find Tony's greatest hits in his show archives as well.

As for the 8th - 61-39 Mike Rogers wins. You can quote me on that. I'll post my reasonings closer to the election.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I keep hearing Democrats talk about all the seats they plan to pick up this fall because people are unhappy with what's happening in Washington. The problem with that line of reasoning is that in most cases voters tend to be happy with THEIR representative even if they don't like the leadership. The old saying "All politics is local" still holds true.

Democrats are more likely to pick up seats in marginal 50/50 districts where no incumbant is running.

Anther thing we need to keep in mind about making predictions is that the election is still a LONG ways away. A LOT can happen between now and November and the issues that seem so important today will likely be forgotten by then. The short attention span of voters can work either for or against both parties. We'll just have to wait and see what happens between now and then.

As for discontent in the Republican base, we hear a lot of complaining right now but as the election nears and Republican activits seriously consider the prospect of Democrats in power again, the motivation will return.

Kevins said...

Well Dan, we can only hope your predictions on the Congressional race are as accurate as the ones you made for the Howell school board. If you call that a cheerleading piece in the Free Press then either you don’t read very well or you’re so stuck on the gop strategy of the so-called “liberal media” myth that you actually believe it. I also have some news for; you a poll I saw reported on MIRS said one in three republicans don’t want their own party to control the House and Senate. You keep being overconfident; we’re going to see some changes for the good in November.

BTW Pravda was the national newspaper of the Communist government in the USSR, and as such it printed the party line. You must have them mixed up with faux news.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like someone needs to spend some time in the goat locker to rest up and clear his brain.

Anonymous said...

Bad news for Democrats in 2004:

1) People don't vote for the national leadership in Congress, they vote for their local representative. National polls mean little for incumbants as long as they keep their local voters happy, and we are just not seeing any widespread unhappiness with incumbant Republican representatives here in Michigan.

2) Few pollsters are able to predict the winner even on election day itself. Polls taken 6 months out mean nothing.

3)The economy has always been the single best predictor for election outcome in races for Governor, Senator, and President. The economy is booming everywhere in the U.S. except for Michigan, where we are having our own private recession. The seats up for grabs in these races here in Michigan are both held by Democrats. Outside of Michigan the mainstream media has done their best to hide the economic boom from Americans but most people are noticing anyway.

Anonymous said...

High gas prices and the Mexican border security/illegal immigration issue both threaten to hurt Republicans this fall.

Republicans would be smart to take action on the border issue soon so people will have time to cool off.

Gas prices are not likely to come down until the situation with Iran is diffused, something that may not happen this year. Still, getting a package passed that would allow expanded drilling plus expanded tax credits to encourage Americans to buy high efficiency cars, appliances, and furnaces would send a signal that the government is finally taking action to reduce the gap between energy production and energy consumption. Even better would be stronger action to encourage large scale production of alternative/synthetic fuels to reduce energy imports. High energy prices will never be popular but they will be more bearable if people are convinced that we are taking serious action to get the problem under control.

Anonymous said...

Hey Kevin,

"'Liberal Media' myth"? Aren't you a journalist? This "myth" is not only proven, but reinforced by you.

Many Republicans are unhappy with National GOP and their spendy ways, but few of us see any Democrats looking to be less spendy. We're looking for truely conservative candidates in the political process, and still voting Republican.

RKG said...

I can only worry about the things that I can control. I get one vote, just like you. I will not vote for Mike Rogers because, among other things, I intend to send a message to him and the republican party that they have failed me and squandered the opportunity to lead. If others agree they should do the same with the one vote they have. If enough agree, we will see change. If not, we will see more of the same -deficit spending and poor policy execution.

Anonymous said...

Taking back Congress is the only way to stop the bleeding of jobs, the ransacking of pensions and the full force attack on the middle class. Bush and Rogers have created this situation. Mike Rogers is very much a player in this mess. Be a true patriot... kick the Republican Congress to the curb this fall and cut our losses.

Anonymous said...

The problem with Republicans is that they are acting too much like Democrats, when voters originally put them into office to eliminate the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of Democrats. Voters want Republicans to be advocates for good and responsible government and to stop acting like a bunch of Democrat wannabees.

What I see here are Republicans being open and honest about these types of issues currently in front of Republicans. The Democrats come here only to bash Republicans, not to discuss ideas. This mirrors the current national trend. Republicans may have some issues to deal with but Democrats have nothing emptiness to offer voters. Simply bashing Republicans is NOT going to win them a lot of seats.

Anonymous said...

Voters are not going to reject a popular incumbant like Mike Rogers without good specific reasons. A few activists moaning and groaning on a blog while making vague accusations is not going to convince anyone. If you want to change the heart of voters you need to have a lot of specific verifiable evidence that he does not represent the interests of his district.

Personally I don't like the way he supported the Patriot Act, but I am part of a small minority in my opposition to this law. My experience is that this law enjoys widespread support within his district. I could name a few other things that I personally disagree with, but coming up with issues that might anger his voters? That definitely draws blanks.

And one other thing I should mention. President Bush is not running for re-election this fall, or ever again for that matter. Democrats can attack him all they want but since he is not on the ticket all that energy is wasted. If they really want to win elections, they need to run against candidates that ARE running for office.