That aside, by all accounts, the Republicans should not be able to compete there. This isn't a state that is a swing state like Virginia or slightly blue state like Michigan. This isn't the 19th state senate district which is a bellwether district. This isn't Long Island NY or New Jersey which in a good GOP year is about 5 points democrat. Tough, but winnable at the right time. This isn't even Illinois, solidly democrat, but elects an occasional republican to federal office statewide (Peter Fitzgerald won in 98). This is Massachusetts. George McGovern won here. Reagan was the aberration, and had a great last name for the state, and it's gone much more liberal since then as the Irish yellow dog democrat domination has lessened and the professor crowd is more dominant (UMass, Harvard, Tuffs, MIT, Boston U, Boston College, etc).
Most polls right now have Brown ahead. Now, I know the democrats have been attacking pollsters lately, but remember one thing. When polls are correct, they are a snapshot in time of the opinions of the populace. Polls may be wrong. People may change their mind between today and Tuesday. Irony is that Rasmussen, who the dems hate, has Brown down by 2%. From Real Clear Politics
| Poll | Date | Sample | Brown (R) | Coakley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJM/CrossTarget (R) | 1/14 - 1/14 | 946 LV | 54 | 39 | Brown +15 |
| Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) | 1/12 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 41 | 49 | Coakley +8 |
| Suffolk/7News | 1/11 - 1/13 | 500 LV | 50 | 46 | Brown +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/11 - 1/11 | 1000 LV | 47 | 49 | Coakley +2 |
| PPP (D) | 1/7 - 1/9 | 744 LV | 48 | 47 | Brown +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1/4 - 1/4 | 500 LV | 41 | 50 | Coakley +9 |
| Boston Globe | 1/2 - 1/6 | 554 LV | 36 | 53 | Coakley +17 |
| Suffolk | 11/4 - 11/8 | 600 RV | 27 | 58 | Coakley +31 |
| Western NE College | 10/18 - 10/22 | 342 LV | 32 | 58 | Coakley +26 |
| Suffolk | 9/12 - 9/15 | 500 RV | 24 | 54 | Coakley +30 |
What happens Tuesday? Do the weak dems come home? Do the dems stay home? Do they vote for Brown. I don't know. I'd like to predict a Brown win, but I can't get past the fact that this is Massachusetts, consistently 62% Democrat in presidential elections, and more in senate elections. Only twice did Ted Kennedy get under 60% of the vote. Once in 1962, and later in 1994. John Kerry's first three races were tougher, but only once had less than 55% (1996). The US House delegation is 10-nothing (Gerrymandered), and only four of those seats in great years like 1994, I'd consider winnable outside of the perfect storm if they open up. That said, it's the perfect storm if Brown wins despite places like Amherst, Holyoke, Springfield, Boston, Cambridge, Brookline, and Newton.
Scott Brown for US Senate. Good luck to Brown, if he wins, that will send a big message to the democrat, that even their home base is no longer secure. I wrote last November about a possible
Republican comeback in the Northeast. It's still a long ways off from a comeback, but this could be step 4 here, after the 09 wins in New Jersey, Long Island, and Pennsylvania judges.
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