Monday, January 18, 2010

Michigan 8th District (MI-08) Updated (Part 2)

Michigan's 8th District - Congress - Part 2
This is Part two of my 8th district update. Part 1 is here

The 2000 numbers show how close this district is at the top of the ticket.


2000 Election
Bush
Gore
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clinton County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bath Twp
1,752
1,738
106
       3,596
14
48.72%
48.33%
0.39%
Bengal Twp
419
199
4
         622
220
67.36%
31.99%
35.37%
Bingham Twp
742
430
30
       1,202
312
61.73%
35.77%
25.96%
Dallas Twp
914
206
13
       1,133
708
80.67%
18.18%
62.49%
City of DeWitt
1,365
971
45
       2,381
394
57.33%
40.78%
16.55%
DeWitt Twp
3,117
2,900
163
       6,180
217
50.44%
46.93%
3.51%
Duplain Twp
579
511
15
       1,105
68
52.40%
46.24%
6.15%
Eagle Twp
742
573
37
       1,352
169
54.88%
42.38%
12.50%
City of East Lansing
0
1
0
             1
-1
0.00%
100.00%
-100.00%
Essex Twp
464
343
25
         832
121
55.77%
41.23%
14.54%
Greenbrush Twp
662
383
19
       1,064
279
62.22%
36.00%
26.22%
Lebanon Twp
205
86
4
         295
119
69.49%
29.15%
40.34%
Olive Twp
702
507
34
       1,243
195
56.48%
40.79%
15.69%
Ovid Twp
742
658
27
       1,427
84
52.00%
46.11%
5.89%
Riley Twp
547
360
23
         930
187
58.82%
38.71%
20.11%
City of St Johns
1,914
1,529
75
       3,518
385
54.41%
43.46%
10.94%
Victor Twp
947
791
42
       1,780
156
53.20%
44.44%
8.76%
Watertown Twp
1,322
970
56
       2,348
352
56.30%
41.31%
14.99%
Westphalia Twp
919
238
27
       1,184
681
77.62%
20.10%
57.52%
Ingham County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alaiedon Twp
956
779
58
       1,793
177
53.32%
43.45%
9.87%
Aurelius Twp
979
746
48
       1,773
233
55.22%
42.08%
13.14%
Bunker Hill Twp
427
403
23
         853
24
50.06%
47.25%
2.81%
Delhi Twp
5,309
5,632
282
     11,223
-323
47.30%
50.18%
-2.88%
City of East Lansing
4,702
10,770
836
     16,308
-6068
28.83%
66.04%
-37.21%
Ingham Twp
557
434
41
       1,032
123
53.97%
42.05%
11.92%
City of Lansing
14,075
29,340
1476
     44,891
-15265
31.35%
65.36%
-34.00%
Lansing Twp
1,606
2,226
125
       3,957
-620
40.59%
56.25%
-15.67%
Leroy Twp
877
671
49
       1,597
206
54.92%
42.02%
12.90%
City of Leslie
343
340
7
         690
3
49.71%
49.28%
0.43%
Leslie Twp
596
479
34
       1,109
117
53.74%
43.19%
10.55%
Locke Twp
514
345
17
         876
169
58.68%
39.38%
19.29%
City of Mason
1,541
1,668
84
       3,293
-127
46.80%
50.65%
-3.86%
Meridian Twp
9,202
10,756
658
     20,616
-1554
44.64%
52.17%
-7.54%
Onondaga Twp
602
477
36
       1,115
125
53.99%
42.78%
11.21%
Stockbridge Twp
753
703
53
       1,509
50
49.90%
46.59%
3.31%
Vevay Twp
1,013
789
41
       1,843
224
54.96%
42.81%
12.15%
Wheatfield Twp
515
390
35
         940
125
54.79%
41.49%
13.30%
White Oak Twp
291
211
12
         514
80
56.61%
41.05%
15.56%
City of Williamston
873
767
57
       1,697
106
51.44%
45.20%
6.25%
Williamstown Twp
1,583
1,305
78
       2,966
278
53.37%
44.00%
9.37%
Livingston County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Brighton
1,770
1,445
95
       3,310
325
53.47%
43.66%
9.82%
Brighton Twp
6,061
3,222
250
       9,533
2839
63.58%
33.80%
29.78%
Cohoctah Twp
905
581
38
       1,524
324
59.38%
38.12%
21.26%
Conway Twp
720
470
32
       1,222
250
58.92%
38.46%
20.46%
Deerfield Twp
1,144
759
68
       1,971
385
58.04%
38.51%
19.53%
Genoa Twp
5,079
2,799
186
       8,064
2280
62.98%
34.71%
28.27%
Green Oak Twp
4,373
3,006
218
       7,597
1367
57.56%
39.57%
17.99%
Hamburg Twp
5,502
4,200
261
       9,963
1302
55.22%
42.16%
13.07%
Handy Twp
1,505
1,069
83
       2,657
436
56.64%
40.23%
16.41%
Hartland Twp
3,543
1,897
124
       5,564
1646
63.68%
34.09%
29.58%
City of Howell
2,010
1,535
115
       3,660
475
54.92%
41.94%
12.98%
Howell Twp
1,638
931
61
       2,630
707
62.28%
35.40%
26.88%
Iosco Twp
765
479
35
       1,279
286
59.81%
37.45%
22.36%
Marion Twp
2,097
1,228
86
       3,411
869
61.48%
36.00%
25.48%
Oceola Twp
2,298
1,368
76
       3,742
930
61.41%
36.56%
24.85%
Putnam Twp
1,793
1,513
118
       3,424
280
52.37%
44.19%
8.18%
Tyrone Twp
2,741
1,649
140
       4,530
1092
60.51%
36.40%
24.11%
Unadilla Twp
695
619
54
       1,368
76
50.80%
45.25%
5.56%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Addison Twp
1,948
952
97
       2,997
996
65.00%
31.77%
33.23%
Brandon Twp
3,824
2,638
189
       6,651
1186
57.50%
39.66%
17.83%
City of Clarkston
300
230
25
         555
70
54.05%
41.44%
12.61%
Groveland Twp
1,582
1,056
101
       2,739
526
57.76%
38.55%
19.20%
Holly Twp
2,029
2,064
139
       4,232
-35
47.94%
48.77%
-0.83%
Independence Twp
10,116
6,003
477
     16,596
4113
60.95%
36.17%
24.78%
Orion Twp
9,329
6,157
481
     15,967
3172
58.43%
38.56%
19.87%
Orion 8
-363
-363
-26
        (752)
0
48.27%
48.27%
0.00%
Orion 9
-708
-368
-23
      (1,099)
-340
64.42%
33.48%
30.94%
Orion 11
-437
-402
-23
        (862)
-35
50.70%
46.64%
4.06%
Orion14
-373
-230
-9
        (612)
-143
60.95%
37.58%
23.37%
Oxford Twp
4,263
2,846
180
       7,289
1417
58.49%
39.05%
19.44%
Rose Twp
1,660
1,203
125
       2,988
457
55.56%
40.26%
15.29%
Springfield Twp
3,915
2,464
139
       6,518
1451
60.06%
37.80%
22.26%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Antrim Twp
544
337
18
         899
207
60.51%
37.49%
23.03%
Bennington Twp
862
631
35
       1,528
231
56.41%
41.30%
15.12%
Burns Twp
880
668
45
       1,593
212
55.24%
41.93%
13.31%
City of Durand
608
864
61
       1,533
-256
39.66%
56.36%
-16.70%
City of Laingsburg
238
234
18
         490
4
48.57%
47.76%
0.82%
City of Perry
479
380
24
         883
99
54.25%
43.04%
11.21%
Perry Twp
985
834
45
       1,864
151
52.84%
44.74%
8.10%
Scoita Twp
446
410
38
         894
36
49.89%
45.86%
4.03%
Shiawassee Twp
629
662
41
       1,332
-33
47.22%
49.70%
-2.48%
Vernon Twp
1,105
1,227
50
       2,382
-122
46.39%
51.51%
-5.12%
Woodhull Twp
954
838
53
       1,845
116
51.71%
45.42%
6.29%









Total
154,822
142,730
9,135
306,687
12092
50.48%
46.54%
3.94%

The 2002 numbers show the effect of state workers. This is where Clinton County first got my attention as not being as strong of a GOP county as I thought it was. Eaton also caught my attention here, but that's in another district. Ingham was much stronger for Granholm than Gore as well.


2002 Election
Posthumus
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clinton County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bath Twp
1,365
1,619
49
       3,033
-254
45.00%
53.38%
-8.37%
Bengal Twp
328
209
4
         541
119
60.63%
38.63%
22.00%
Bingham Twp
568
378
10
         956
190
59.41%
39.54%
19.87%
Dallas Twp
690
220
8
         918
470
75.16%
23.97%
51.20%
City of DeWitt
1,029
905
20
       1,954
124
52.66%
46.32%
6.35%
DeWitt Twp
2,306
2,576
59
       4,941
-270
46.67%
52.14%
-5.46%
Duplain Twp
409
396
7
         812
13
50.37%
48.77%
1.60%
Eagle Twp
623
509
5
       1,137
114
54.79%
44.77%
10.03%
City of East Lansing
25
33

           58
-8
43.10%
56.90%
-13.79%
Essex Twp
373
266
9
         648
107
57.56%
41.05%
16.51%
Greenbrush Twp
464
363
6
         833
101
55.70%
43.58%
12.12%
Lebanon Twp
157
76

         233
81
67.38%
32.62%
34.76%
Olive Twp
563
492
15
       1,070
71
52.62%
45.98%
6.64%
Ovid Twp
625
508
17
       1,150
117
54.35%
44.17%
10.17%
Riley Twp
427
323
7
         757
104
56.41%
42.67%
13.74%
City of St Johns
1,350
1,244
25
       2,619
106
51.55%
47.50%
4.05%
Victor Twp
702
710
17
       1,429
-8
49.13%
49.69%
-0.56%
Watertown Twp
986
963
20
       1,969
23
50.08%
48.91%
1.17%
Westphalia Twp
721
280
1
       1,002
441
71.96%
27.94%
44.01%
Ingham County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alaiedon Twp
737
736
19
       1,492
1
49.40%
49.33%
0.07%
Aurelius Twp
756
686
14
       1,456
70
51.92%
47.12%
4.81%
Bunker Hill Twp
329
299
9
         637
30
51.65%
46.94%
4.71%
Delhi Twp
3,992
4,928
85
       9,005
-936
44.33%
54.73%
-10.39%
City of East Lansing
2,935
7,427
161
     10,523
-4492
27.89%
70.58%
-42.69%
Ingham Twp
417
403
9
         829
14
50.30%
48.61%
1.69%
City of Lansing
10,052
22,222
520
     32,794
-12170
30.65%
67.76%
-37.11%
Lansing Twp
1,167
1,898
45
       3,110
-731
37.52%
61.03%
-23.50%
Leroy Twp
661
552
17
       1,230
109
53.74%
44.88%
8.86%
City of Leslie
233
285
5
         523
-52
44.55%
54.49%
-9.94%
Leslie Twp
475
430
9
         914
45
51.97%
47.05%
4.92%
Locke Twp
436
319
9
         764
117
57.07%
41.75%
15.31%
City of Mason
1,153
1,533
31
       2,717
-380
42.44%
56.42%
-13.99%
Meridian Twp
6,614
9,673
176
     16,463
-3059
40.17%
58.76%
-18.58%
Onondaga Twp
466
394
12
         872
72
53.44%
45.18%
8.26%
Stockbridge Twp
631
521
16
       1,168
110
54.02%
44.61%
9.42%
Vevay Twp
754
737
6
       1,497
17
50.37%
49.23%
1.14%
Wheatfield Twp
424
364
5
         793
60
53.47%
45.90%
7.57%
White Oak Twp
240
202
6
         448
38
53.57%
45.09%
8.48%
City of Williamston
655
674
17
       1,346
-19
48.66%
50.07%
-1.41%
Williamstown Twp
1,287
1,288
21
       2,596
-1
49.58%
49.61%
-0.04%
Livingston County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Brighton
1,431
1,153
28
       2,612
278
54.79%
44.14%
10.64%
Brighton Twp
4,733
2,512
48
       7,293
2221
64.90%
34.44%
30.45%
Cohoctah Twp
725
360
14
       1,099
365
65.97%
32.76%
33.21%
Conway Twp
683
352
8
       1,043
331
65.48%
33.75%
31.74%
Deerfield Twp
966
479
14
       1,459
487
66.21%
32.83%
33.38%
Genoa Twp
4,252
2,320
69
       6,641
1932
64.03%
34.93%
29.09%
Green Oak Twp
3,693
2,503
75
       6,271
1190
58.89%
39.91%
18.98%
Hamburg Twp
4,449
3,191
71
       7,711
1258
57.70%
41.38%
16.31%
Handy Twp
1,250
796
34
       2,080
454
60.10%
38.27%
21.83%
Hartland Twp
2,917
1,465
49
       4,431
1452
65.83%
33.06%
32.77%
City of Howell
1,470
1,082
33
       2,585
388
56.87%
41.86%
15.01%
Howell Twp
1,249
633
17
       1,899
616
65.77%
33.33%
32.44%
Iosco Twp
732
325
7
       1,064
407
68.80%
30.55%
38.25%
Marion Twp
1,855
978
24
       2,857
877
64.93%
34.23%
30.70%
Oceola Twp
1,995
1,048
32
       3,075
947
64.88%
34.08%
30.80%
Putnam Twp
1,501
1,097
36
       2,634
404
56.99%
41.65%
15.34%
Tyrone Twp
2,206
1,316
52
       3,574
890
61.72%
36.82%
24.90%
Unadilla Twp
583
396
14
         993
187
58.71%
39.88%
18.83%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Addison Twp
1,607
749
43
       2,399
858
66.99%
31.22%
35.76%
Brandon Twp
3,019
1,882
64
       4,965
1137
60.81%
37.91%
22.90%
City of Clarkston
257
187
7
         451
70
56.98%
41.46%
15.52%
Groveland Twp
1,351
700
31
       2,082
651
64.89%
33.62%
31.27%
Holly Twp
1,643
1,594
46
       3,283
49
50.05%
48.55%
1.49%
Independence Twp
8,013
4,877
110
     13,000
3136
61.64%
37.52%
24.12%
Orion Twp
7,366
4,577
173
     12,116
2789
60.80%
37.78%
23.02%
Orion 8
-338
-242
-6
        (586)
-96
57.68%
41.30%
16.38%
Orion 9
-516
-300
-5
        (821)
-216
62.85%
36.54%
26.31%
Orion 11
-281
-249
-11
        (541)
-32
51.94%
46.03%
5.91%
Orion14
-329
-204
-5
        (538)
-125
61.15%
37.92%
23.23%
Oxford Twp
3,560
2,185
88
       5,833
1375
61.03%
37.46%
23.57%
Rose Twp
1,336
915
36
       2,287
421
58.42%
40.01%
18.41%
Springfield Twp
3,170
1,842
61
       5,073
1328
62.49%
36.31%
26.18%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Antrim Twp
420
284
6
         710
136
59.15%
40.00%
19.15%
Bennington Twp
747
552
12
       1,311
195
56.98%
42.11%
14.87%
Burns Twp
728
424
15
       1,167
304
62.38%
36.33%
26.05%
City of Durand
523
582
18
       1,123
-59
46.57%
51.83%
-5.25%
City of Laingsburg
187
184
6
         377
3
49.60%
48.81%
0.80%
City of Perry
343
307
14
         664
36
51.66%
46.23%
5.42%
Perry Twp
762
667
19
       1,448
95
52.62%
46.06%
6.56%
Scoita Twp
359
329
9
         697
30
51.51%
47.20%
4.30%
Shiawassee Twp
523
496
3
       1,022
27
51.17%
48.53%
2.64%
Vernon Twp
901
904
31
       1,836
-3
49.07%
49.24%
-0.16%
Woodhull Twp
748
793
29
       1,570
-45
47.64%
50.51%
-2.87%









Total
120,914
113,682
2,890
237,486
7232
50.91%
47.87%
3.05%

2004 was the contrast with the "state worker" bloc and somewhat more like 2000. Rural Ingham County swung more towards the GOP that year as well. Watch Bath Twp here. It was Bath Twp precinct 2 (since re-precincted) that did caused it to flip to Kerry. DeWitt however went back to presidential form from state workers form (at least until 08 - but that was bad across the board) Precinct 2 went 2-1 for Obama, and is also the largest precinct.


2004 Election
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clinton County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bath Twp
2,338
2,341
43
       4,722
-3
49.51%
49.58%
-0.06%
Bengal Twp
472
202
4
         678
270
69.62%
29.79%
39.82%
Bingham Twp
928
498
9
       1,435
430
64.67%
34.70%
29.97%
Dallas Twp
979
256
6
       1,241
723
78.89%
20.63%
58.26%
City of DeWitt
1,521
1,073
29
       2,623
448
57.99%
40.91%
17.08%
DeWitt Twp
4,065
3,273
58
       7,396
792
54.96%
44.25%
10.71%
Duplain Twp
629
548
4
       1,181
81
53.26%
46.40%
6.86%
Eagle Twp
910
552
7
       1,469
358
61.95%
37.58%
24.37%
City of East Lansing
136
235
2
         373
-99
36.46%
63.00%
-26.54%
Essex Twp
574
380
13
         967
194
59.36%
39.30%
20.06%
Greenbrush Twp
720
445
16
       1,181
275
60.97%
37.68%
23.29%
Lebanon Twp
216
92
2
         310
124
69.68%
29.68%
40.00%
Olive Twp
875
584
15
       1,474
291
59.36%
39.62%
19.74%
Ovid Twp
967
696
20
       1,683
271
57.46%
41.35%
16.10%
Riley Twp
737
421
12
       1,170
316
62.99%
35.98%
27.01%
City of St Johns
2,206
1,589
44
       3,839
617
57.46%
41.39%
16.07%
Victor Twp
1,141
867
21
       2,029
274
56.23%
42.73%
13.50%
Watertown Twp
1,568
1,143
19
       2,730
425
57.44%
41.87%
15.57%
Westphalia Twp
1,007
288
11
       1,306
719
77.11%
22.05%
55.05%
Ingham County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alaiedon Twp
1,088
838
13
       1,939
250
56.11%
43.22%
12.89%
Aurelius Twp
1,222
771
16
       2,009
451
60.83%
38.38%
22.45%
Bunker Hill Twp
549
417
9
         975
132
56.31%
42.77%
13.54%
Delhi Twp
6,831
6,105
137
     13,073
726
52.25%
46.70%
5.55%
City of East Lansing
5,119
12,647
260
     18,026
-7528
28.40%
70.16%
-41.76%
Ingham Twp
734
463
13
       1,210
271
60.66%
38.26%
22.40%
City of Lansing
16,102
32,102
537
     48,741
-16000
33.04%
65.86%
-32.83%
Lansing Twp
1,707
2,436
44
       4,187
-729
40.77%
58.18%
-17.41%
Leroy Twp
1,103
674
23
       1,800
429
61.28%
37.44%
23.83%
City of Leslie
403
363
10
         776
40
51.93%
46.78%
5.15%
Leslie Twp
806
486
18
       1,310
320
61.53%
37.10%
24.43%
Locke Twp
657
361
9
       1,027
296
63.97%
35.15%
28.82%
City of Mason
1,989
1,880
29
       3,898
109
51.03%
48.23%
2.80%
Meridian Twp
9,589
12,378
203
     22,170
-2789
43.25%
55.83%
-12.58%
Onondaga Twp
768
568
21
       1,357
200
56.60%
41.86%
14.74%
Stockbridge Twp
1,000
708
22
       1,730
292
57.80%
40.92%
16.88%
Vevay Twp
1,177
816
12
       2,005
361
58.70%
40.70%
18.00%
Wheatfield Twp
624
375
6
       1,005
249
62.09%
37.31%
24.78%
White Oak Twp
378
247
9
         634
131
59.62%
38.96%
20.66%
City of Williamston
1,065
869
21
       1,955
196
54.48%
44.45%
10.03%
Williamstown Twp
1,824
1,373
28
       3,225
451
56.56%
42.57%
13.98%
Livingston County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Brighton
2,226
1,763
35
       4,024
463
55.32%
43.81%
11.51%
Brighton Twp
6,977
3,525
94
     10,596
3452
65.85%
33.27%
32.58%
Cohoctah Twp
1,091
548
22
       1,661
543
65.68%
32.99%
32.69%
Conway Twp
1,025
540
21
       1,586
485
64.63%
34.05%
30.58%
Deerfield Twp
447
313
7
         767
134
58.28%
40.81%
17.47%
Genoa Twp
7,081
3,608
90
     10,779
3473
65.69%
33.47%
32.22%
Green Oak Twp
5,779
3,618
103
       9,500
2161
60.83%
38.08%
22.75%
Hamburg Twp
6,933
4,933
113
     11,979
2000
57.88%
41.18%
16.70%
Handy Twp
2,056
1,225
26
       3,307
831
62.17%
37.04%
25.13%
Hartland Twp
4,925
2,329
59
       7,313
2596
67.35%
31.85%
35.50%
City of Howell
2,499
1,751
52
       4,302
748
58.09%
40.70%
17.39%
Howell Twp
2,202
1,134
33
       3,369
1068
65.36%
33.66%
31.70%
Iosco Twp
1,071
468
14
       1,553
603
68.96%
30.14%
38.83%
Marion Twp
3,137
1,600
36
       4,773
1537
65.72%
33.52%
32.20%
Oceola Twp
3,513
1,768
48
       5,329
1745
65.92%
33.18%
32.75%
Putnam Twp
2,417
1,792
49
       4,258
625
56.76%
42.09%
14.68%
Tyrone Twp
3,560
1,917
32
       5,509
1643
64.62%
34.80%
29.82%
Unadilla Twp
919
641
29
       1,589
278
57.84%
40.34%
17.50%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Addison Twp
2,406
1,113
44
       3,563
1293
67.53%
31.24%
36.29%
Brandon Twp
4,852
3,030
111
       7,993
1822
60.70%
37.91%
22.79%
City of Clarkston
322
252
6
         580
70
55.52%
43.45%
12.07%
Groveland Twp
1,988
1,204
27
       3,219
784
61.76%
37.40%
24.36%
Holly Twp
2,813
2,442
80
       5,335
371
52.73%
45.77%
6.95%
Independence Twp
12,199
6,847
164
     19,210
5352
63.50%
35.64%
27.86%
Orion Twp
11,362
6,887
195
     18,444
4475
61.60%
37.34%
24.26%
Orion 8
-584
-420
-7
      (1,011)
-164
57.76%
41.54%
16.22%
Orion 9
-785
-438
-13
      (1,236)
-347
63.51%
35.44%
28.07%
Orion 11
-456
-348
-13
        (817)
-108
55.81%
42.59%
13.22%
Orion14
-479
-252
-6
        (737)
-227
64.99%
34.19%
30.80%
Oxford Twp
6,155
3,577
145
       9,877
2578
62.32%
36.22%
26.10%
Rose Twp
2,139
1,337
44
       3,520
802
60.77%
37.98%
22.78%
Springfield Twp
4,946
2,710
73
       7,729
2236
63.99%
35.06%
28.93%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Antrim Twp
680
432
7
       1,119
248
60.77%
38.61%
22.16%
Bennington Twp
1,106
712
18
       1,836
394
60.24%
38.78%
21.46%
Burns Twp
1,054
688
19
       1,761
366
59.85%
39.07%
20.78%
City of Durand
773
914
29
       1,716
-141
45.05%
53.26%
-8.22%
City of Laingsburg
329
279
8
         616
50
53.41%
45.29%
8.12%
City of Perry
584
432
8
       1,024
152
57.03%
42.19%
14.84%
Perry Twp
1,255
908
16
       2,179
347
57.60%
41.67%
15.92%
Scoita Twp
535
425
12
         972
110
55.04%
43.72%
11.32%
Shiawassee Twp
804
719
17
       1,540
85
52.21%
46.69%
5.52%
Vernon Twp
1,374
1,329
26
       2,729
45
50.35%
48.70%
1.65%
Woodhull Twp
1,258
905
28
       2,191
353
57.42%
41.31%
16.11%









Total
191,212
161,517
3,676
356,405
29695
53.65%
45.32%
8.33%

2006 and 2008 were the tough years, and showed how well Mike Rogers runs ahead of the ticket. Here's 06


2006 Election
DeVos
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clinton County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bath Twp
1,646
2,425
47
       4,118
-779
39.97%
58.89%
-18.92%
Bengal Twp
304
273
6
         583
31
52.14%
46.83%
5.32%
Bingham Twp
579
638
22
       1,239
-59
46.73%
51.49%
-4.76%
Dallas Twp
641
407
5
       1,053
234
60.87%
38.65%
22.22%
City of DeWitt
1,012
1,183
16
       2,211
-171
45.77%
53.51%
-7.73%
DeWitt Twp
2,602
3,454
61
       6,117
-852
42.54%
56.47%
-13.93%
Duplain Twp
385
580
6
         971
-195
39.65%
59.73%
-20.08%
Eagle Twp
649
727
12
       1,388
-78
46.76%
52.38%
-5.62%
City of East Lansing
145
284
5
         434
-139
33.41%
65.44%
-32.03%
Essex Twp
386
428
18
         832
-42
46.39%
51.44%
-5.05%
Greenbrush Twp
478
556
15
       1,049
-78
45.57%
53.00%
-7.44%
Lebanon Twp
153
111
4
         268
42
57.09%
41.42%
15.67%
Olive Twp
561
685
18
       1,264
-124
44.38%
54.19%
-9.81%
Ovid Twp
589
767
26
       1,382
-178
42.62%
55.50%
-12.88%
Riley Twp
482
542
16
       1,040
-60
46.35%
52.12%
-5.77%
City of St Johns
1,330
1,713
48
       3,091
-383
43.03%
55.42%
-12.39%
Victor Twp
766
950
19
       1,735
-184
44.15%
54.76%
-10.61%
Watertown Twp
558
723
12
       1,293
-165
43.16%
55.92%
-12.76%
Westphalia Twp
659
469
9
       1,137
190
57.96%
41.25%
16.71%
Ingham County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alaiedon Twp
727
891
20
       1,638
-164
44.38%
54.40%
-10.01%
Aurelius Twp
771
906
15
       1,692
-135
45.57%
53.55%
-7.98%
Bunker Hill Twp
377
467
13
         857
-90
43.99%
54.49%
-10.50%
Delhi Twp
4,267
6,540
121
     10,928
-2273
39.05%
59.85%
-20.80%
City of East Lansing
2,830
9,941
181
     12,952
-7111
21.85%
76.75%
-54.90%
Ingham Twp
509
519
13
       1,041
-10
48.90%
49.86%
-0.96%
City of Lansing
9,324
27,316
431
     37,071
-17992
25.15%
73.69%
-48.53%
Lansing Twp
985
2,223
39
       3,247
-1238
30.34%
68.46%
-38.13%
Leroy Twp
744
733
22
       1,499
11
49.63%
48.90%
0.73%
City of Leslie
263
347
7
         617
-84
42.63%
56.24%
-13.61%
Leslie Twp
481
605
20
       1,106
-124
43.49%
54.70%
-11.21%
Locke Twp
449
428
6
         883
21
50.85%
48.47%
2.38%
City of Mason
1,277
1,968
23
       3,268
-691
39.08%
60.22%
-21.14%
Meridian Twp
6,377
11,511
174
     18,062
-5134
35.31%
63.73%
-28.42%
Onondaga Twp
517
647
25
       1,189
-130
43.48%
54.42%
-10.93%
Stockbridge Twp
685
777
27
       1,489
-92
46.00%
52.18%
-6.18%
Vevay Twp
769
918
24
       1,711
-149
44.94%
53.65%
-8.71%
Wheatfield Twp
425
450
9
         884
-25
48.08%
50.90%
-2.83%
White Oak Twp
251
259
9
         519
-8
48.36%
49.90%
-1.54%
City of Williamston
717
913
23
       1,653
-196
43.38%
55.23%
-11.86%
Williamstown Twp
1,292
1,461
26
       2,779
-169
46.49%
52.57%
-6.08%
Livingston County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Brighton
1,623
1,523
30
       3,176
100
51.10%
47.95%
3.15%
Brighton Twp
5,339
3,415
103
       8,857
1924
60.28%
38.56%
21.72%
Cohoctah Twp
838
557
25
       1,420
281
59.01%
39.23%
19.79%
Conway Twp
828
572
21
       1,421
256
58.27%
40.25%
18.02%
Deerfield Twp
1,090
758
51
       1,899
332
57.40%
39.92%
17.48%
Genoa Twp
5,507
3,398
121
       9,026
2109
61.01%
37.65%
23.37%
Green Oak Twp
4,236
3,583
123
       7,942
653
53.34%
45.11%
8.22%
Hamburg Twp
5,091
4,590
138
       9,819
501
51.85%
46.75%
5.10%
Handy Twp
1,541
1,132
53
       2,726
409
56.53%
41.53%
15.00%
Hartland Twp
3,849
2,180
80
       6,109
1669
63.01%
35.69%
27.32%
City of Howell
1,688
1,515
63
       3,266
173
51.68%
46.39%
5.30%
Howell Twp
1,639
1,064
33
       2,736
575
59.90%
38.89%
21.02%
Iosco Twp
892
523
23
       1,438
369
62.03%
36.37%
25.66%
Marion Twp
2,549
1,694
38
       4,281
855
59.54%
39.57%
19.97%
Oceola Twp
2,774
1,625
52
       4,451
1149
62.32%
36.51%
25.81%
Putnam Twp
1,787
1,723
49
       3,559
64
50.21%
48.41%
1.80%
Tyrone Twp
2,542
1,911
61
       4,514
631
56.31%
42.33%
13.98%
Unadilla Twp
682
643
24
       1,349
39
50.56%
47.66%
2.89%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Addison Twp
1,867
1,012
47
       2,926
855
63.81%
34.59%
29.22%
Brandon Twp
3,710
2,672
122
       6,504
1038
57.04%
41.08%
15.96%
City of Clarkston
274
207
9
         490
67
55.92%
42.24%
13.67%
Groveland Twp
1,554
1,030
36
       2,620
524
59.31%
39.31%
20.00%
Holly Twp
2,116
2,184
90
       4,390
-68
48.20%
49.75%
-1.55%
Independence Twp
9,225
6,059
193
     15,477
3166
59.60%
39.15%
20.46%
Orion Twp
8,651
5,998
245
     14,894
2653
58.08%
40.27%
17.81%
Orion 8
-448
-371
-14
        (833)
-77
53.78%
44.54%
9.24%
Orion 9
-543
-399
-9
        (951)
-144
57.10%
41.96%
15.14%
Orion 11
-359
-299
-15
        (673)
-60
53.34%
44.43%
8.92%
Orion14
-362
-267
-8
        (637)
-95
56.83%
41.92%
14.91%
Oxford Twp
4,763
3,233
134
       8,130
1530
58.59%
39.77%
18.82%
Rose Twp
1,555
1,288
59
       2,902
267
53.58%
44.38%
9.20%
Springfield Twp
3,864
2,525
98
       6,487
1339
59.57%
38.92%
20.64%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Antrim Twp
485
448
18
         951
37
51.00%
47.11%
3.89%
Bennington Twp
757
790
18
       1,565
-33
48.37%
50.48%
-2.11%
Burns Twp
708
726
22
       1,456
-18
48.63%
49.86%
-1.24%
City of Durand
495
777
30
       1,302
-282
38.02%
59.68%
-21.66%
City of Laingsburg
198
303
9
         510
-105
38.82%
59.41%
-20.59%
City of Perry
379
438
13
         830
-59
45.66%
52.77%
-7.11%
Perry Twp
840
915
21
       1,776
-75
47.30%
51.52%
-4.22%
Scoita Twp
316
505
15
         836
-189
37.80%
60.41%
-22.61%
Shiawassee Twp
535
716
19
       1,270
-181
42.13%
56.38%
-14.25%
Vernon Twp
780
1,344
33
       2,157
-564
36.16%
62.31%
-26.15%
Woodhull Twp
865
963
23
       1,851
-98
46.73%
52.03%
-5.29%









Total
134,682
151,938
3,889
290,509
-17256
46.36%
52.30%
-5.94%

 And 08:


2008 Election
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
Clinton County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Bath Twp
2,303
3,236
78
       5,617
-933
41.00%
57.61%
-16.61%
Bengal Twp
384
264
9
         657
120
58.45%
40.18%
18.26%
Bingham Twp
805
654
38
       1,497
151
53.77%
43.69%
10.09%
Dallas Twp
870
349
24
       1,243
521
69.99%
28.08%
41.91%
City of DeWitt
1,300
1,379
31
       2,710
-79
47.97%
50.89%
-2.92%
DeWitt Twp
3,604
4,025
132
       7,761
-421
46.44%
51.86%
-5.42%
Duplain Twp
523
643
23
       1,189
-120
43.99%
54.08%
-10.09%
Eagle Twp
837
787
25
       1,649
50
50.76%
47.73%
3.03%
City of East Lansing
272
626
7
         905
-354
30.06%
69.17%
-39.12%
Essex Twp
515
447
23
         985
68
52.28%
45.38%
6.90%
Greenbrush Twp
621
601
15
       1,237
20
50.20%
48.59%
1.62%
Lebanon Twp
186
111
6
         303
75
61.39%
36.63%
24.75%
Olive Twp
792
654
30
       1,476
138
53.66%
44.31%
9.35%
Ovid Twp
832
928
29
       1,789
-96
46.51%
51.87%
-5.37%
Riley Twp
613
560
30
       1,203
53
50.96%
46.55%
4.41%
City of St Johns
1,748
1,963
65
       3,776
-215
46.29%
51.99%
-5.69%
Victor Twp
984
1,034
42
       2,060
-50
47.77%
50.19%
-2.43%
Watertown Twp
1,554
1,391
40
       2,985
163
52.06%
46.60%
5.46%
Westphalia Twp
983
353
16
       1,352
630
72.71%
26.11%
46.60%
Ingham County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Alaiedon Twp
991
906
40
       1,937
85
51.16%
46.77%
4.39%
Aurelius Twp
1,050
960
28
       2,038
90
51.52%
47.11%
4.42%
Bunker Hill Twp
517
479
30
       1,026
38
50.39%
46.69%
3.70%
Delhi Twp
5,894
7,856
205
     13,955
-1962
42.24%
56.30%
-14.06%
City of East Lansing
5,379
17,179
325
     22,883
-11800
23.51%
75.07%
-51.57%
Ingham Twp
690
598
19
       1,307
92
52.79%
45.75%
7.04%
City of Lansing
12,180
38,228
843
     51,251
-26048
23.77%
74.59%
-50.82%
Lansing Twp
1,336
2,805
77
       4,218
-1469
31.67%
66.50%
-34.83%
Leroy Twp
927
830
34
       1,791
97
51.76%
46.34%
5.42%
City of Leslie
357
435
20
         812
-78
43.97%
53.57%
-9.61%
Leslie Twp
638
641
21
       1,300
-3
49.08%
49.31%
-0.23%
Locke Twp
549
471
23
       1,043
78
52.64%
45.16%
7.48%
City of Mason
1,805
2,235
63
       4,103
-430
43.99%
54.47%
-10.48%
Meridian Twp
8,080
14,288
304
     22,672
-6208
35.64%
63.02%
-27.38%
Onondaga Twp
698
711
26
       1,435
-13
48.64%
49.55%
-0.91%
Stockbridge Twp
941
928
33
       1,902
13
49.47%
48.79%
0.68%
Vevay Twp
1,075
927
35
       2,037
148
52.77%
45.51%
7.27%
Wheatfield Twp
525
477
15
       1,017
48
51.62%
46.90%
4.72%
White Oak Twp
327
282
12
         621
45
52.66%
45.41%
7.25%
City of Williamston
945
1,105
27
       2,077
-160
45.50%
53.20%
-7.70%
Williamstown Twp
1,582
1,653
51
       3,286
-71
48.14%
50.30%
-2.16%
Livingston County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
City of Brighton
1,984
2,097
62
       4,143
-113
47.89%
50.62%
-2.73%
Brighton Twp
6,598
4,188
189
     10,975
2410
60.12%
38.16%
21.96%
Cohoctah Twp
1,046
652
42
       1,740
394
60.11%
37.47%
22.64%
Conway Twp
956
689
31
       1,676
267
57.04%
41.11%
15.93%
Deerfield Twp
1,329
912
77
       2,318
417
57.33%
39.34%
17.99%
Genoa Twp
6,592
4,502
154
     11,248
2090
58.61%
40.02%
18.58%
Green Oak Twp
5,522
4,395
186
     10,103
1127
54.66%
43.50%
11.16%
Hamburg Twp
6,355
5,922
186
     12,463
433
50.99%
47.52%
3.47%
Handy Twp
1,922
1,729
72
       3,723
193
51.63%
46.44%
5.18%
Hartland Twp
4,869
3,087
128
       8,084
1782
60.23%
38.19%
22.04%
City of Howell
2,068
2,160
109
       4,337
-92
47.68%
49.80%
-2.12%
Howell Twp
2,022
1,459
64
       3,545
563
57.04%
41.16%
15.88%
Iosco Twp
1,090
756
26
       1,872
334
58.23%
40.38%
17.84%
Marion Twp
3,302
2,169
92
       5,563
1133
59.36%
38.99%
20.37%
Oceola Twp
3,694
2,428
105
       6,227
1266
59.32%
38.99%
20.33%
Putnam Twp
2,210
2,157
72
       4,439
53
49.79%
48.59%
1.19%
Tyrone Twp
3,362
2,236
88
       5,686
1126
59.13%
39.32%
19.80%
Unadilla Twp
860
811
44
       1,715
49
50.15%
47.29%
2.86%
Oakland County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Addison Twp
2,248
1,339
85
       3,672
909
61.22%
36.47%
24.75%
Brandon Twp
4,394
3,564
153
       8,111
830
54.17%
43.94%
10.23%
City of Clarkston
296
252
17
         565
44
52.39%
44.60%
7.79%
Groveland Twp
1,769
1,275
65
       3,109
494
56.90%
41.01%
15.89%
Holly Twp
2,678
2,969
135
       5,782
-291
46.32%
51.35%
-5.03%
Independence Twp
11,000
8,253
334
     19,587
2747
56.16%
42.14%
14.02%
Orion Twp
10,042
8,512
368
     18,922
1530
53.07%
44.98%
8.09%
Orion 8
-497
-477
-22
        (996)
-20
49.90%
47.89%
2.01%
Orion 9
-608
-581
-20
      (1,209)
-27
50.29%
48.06%
2.23%
Orion 11
-400
-399
-14
        (813)
-1
49.20%
49.08%
0.12%
Orion14
-423
-319
-13
        (755)
-104
56.03%
42.25%
13.77%
Oxford Twp
5,836
4,484
162
     10,482
1352
55.68%
42.78%
12.90%
Rose Twp
1,936
1,573
76
       3,585
363
54.00%
43.88%
10.13%
Springfield Twp
4,654
3,176
133
       7,963
1478
58.45%
39.88%
18.56%
Shiawassee County:



            -  
0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Antrim Twp
594
541
18
       1,153
53
51.52%
46.92%
4.60%
Bennington Twp
1,021
826
35
       1,882
195
54.25%
43.89%
10.36%
Burns Twp
933
793
44
       1,770
140
52.71%
44.80%
7.91%
City of Durand
635
961
47
       1,643
-326
38.65%
58.49%
-19.84%
City of Laingsburg
285
373
9
         667
-88
42.73%
55.92%
-13.19%
City of Perry
471
547
21
       1,039
-76
45.33%
52.65%
-7.31%
Perry Twp
1,050
1,088
52
       2,190
-38
47.95%
49.68%
-1.74%
Scoita Twp
449
528
26
       1,003
-79
44.77%
52.64%
-7.88%
Shiawassee Twp
688
835
39
       1,562
-147
44.05%
53.46%
-9.41%
Vernon Twp
1,156
1,436
59
       2,651
-280
43.61%
54.17%
-10.56%
Woodhull Twp
1,103
1,047
29
       2,179
56
50.62%
48.05%
2.57%









Total
173,303
198,944
6,459
378,706
-25641
45.76%
52.53%
-6.77%

Clinton County
2000 - Bush 56.08%, Gore 41.61%, 32193 votes, 4660 vote spread
2002 - Posthumus 52.61%, Granholm 46.32%, 26060 votes, 1641 vote spread
2004 - Bush 58.16%, Kerry 40.95%, 37807 votes, 6506 vote spread
2006 - Granholm 54.21%, DeVos 44.62%, 31205 votes, -2990 votes
2008 - Obama 49.52%, McCain 48.83%, 40394 votes, -279 votes

Ingham County (all)
2000 - Gore 57.41%, Bush 39.23%, 120595 votes, -21917 vote spread
2002 - Granholm 60.95%, Posthumus 37.74%, 91,177 votes, -21257 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 57.78%, Bush 41.14%, 133052 votes, -22142 vote spread
2006 - Granholm 66.44%, DeVos 32.69%, 105085 votes, -35783 vote spread
2008 - Obama 65.85%, McCain 32.57%, 142731 votes, -47508 vote spread

Ingham County (Lansing Area - Delhi Twp, East Lansing, Lansing, Meridian Twp)
2000 - Gore 60.54%, Bush 35.98%, 96995 votes, -23830 vote spread
2002 - Granholm 64.19%,  Posthumus 34.44%, 71895 votes, -21388 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 61.84%, Bush 37.05%, 106197 votes, -26320 vote spread
2006 - Granholm 69.94%, DeVos 28.91%, 82260 votes, -33748 spread
2008 - Obama 69.88%, McCain 28.59%, 114,999 votes, -47487 spread

Ingham County (Rest of the County)
2000 - Bush 52.63%, Gore 44.65%, 23600 votes, 1913 vote spread
2002 - Posthumus 50.07%, Granholm 48.87%, 19282 votes, 231 vote spread
2004 - Bush 57.30%, Kerry 41.74%, 26855 votes, 4178 vote spread
2006 - Granholm 53.84%, DeVos 44.92%, 22825 votes, -2035 vote spread
2008 - Obama 49.18%, McCain 49.10%, 27732 votes, -21 vote spread


Livingston County
2000 - Bush 59.16%, Gore 38.13%, 75449 votes, 15869 vote spread
2002 - Posthumus 61.85%, Granholm 37.10%, 59321 votes, 14684 vote spread
2004 - Bush 62.76%, Kerry 36.31%, 92194 votes, 24385 vote spread
2006 - DeVos 57.05%, Granholm 41.55%, 77989 votes, 12089 vote spread
2008 - McCain 55.60%, Obama 42.66%, 106165 votes, 13737 vote spread

Oakland County (portion in 8th)
2000 - Bush 58.67%, Gore 38.37%, 63207 votes, 12835 vote spread
2002 - Posthumus 60.93%, Granholm 37.78%, 49003 votes, 11345 vote spread
2004 - Bush 61.95%, Kerry 36.93%, 75669 votes, 18937 vote spread
2006 - DeVos 58.11%, Granholm 40.29%, 61726 votes, 10995 vote spread
2008 - McCain 55.03%, Obama 43.10%, 78005 votes, 9304 vote spread

Shiawassee County (portion in 8th)
2000 - Bush 50.71%, Gore 46.48%, 15243 votes, 645 vote spread.
2002 - Posthumus 52.34, Granholm 46.31%, 11925 votes, 719 vote spread
2004 - Bush 55.18%, Kerry 43.79%, 17683 votes, 2009 vote spread
2006 - Granholm 54.64%, DeVos 43.84%, 14504 votes, -1567 vote spread
2008 - Obama 50.59%, McCain 47.27%, 17739 votes, -590 vote spread

Why do I keep mentioning Clinton County? Because that's the big key if we're going to God-forbid lose this district. Shiawassee County is key as well, but it's smaller. In the first three elections, Livingston and the Oakland county portions carried the day. They almost mirrored one another in their votes, with Livingston 1% or so ahead. Clinton county showed the most competitiveness, for a few reasons. An established party that didn't seem scared (from my perception), until 2006 and moreso in 2008. Somewhat like Livingston County post Joe Ellis/Joe Richards. I'll be shocked if 96/98 didn't scare some people here. I wasn't active during those years, coming on board in late 01 (I was independent before then).

In Clinton, the big change is East Lansing growing northward into Bath Twp. Most of the new democrat spread is in the student apartment building precinct. In fact East Lansing has been annexing land there. DeWitt (city and Twp) has had competitive streaks more in gubernatorial years. The question is whether it is an aberattion or not. DeWitt and St Johns (many commuters to Lansing - reminds me a bit of Williamston) are tough to read. I don't think East Lansing is moving to DeWitt. 2010 and 2012 will be telling there. The good news there is that the party there is getting well organized, and had a couple of comebacks, and should be ready for one in 2012.


Ingham County is a democrat stronghold, 4th biggest in the state. The big keys here is to try and offset the Lansing/East Lansing  firewall by winning the rural areas, Mason, Holt (Delhi Twp), and splitting Meridian Twp if possible. (Haslett area may be winnable, Okemos is much more difficult - East Lansing East). The best that can be done after that is by reducing the margins of loss in Lansing and East Lansing. If the dems are forced to compete in Lansing or East Lansing, it's already over.

In Livingston, I  do remember a scare in 02 that turned out to be unfounded when the results came in. We limped in 06 and got lucky for several reasons that I won't get into. In 08 we were scared, but organized and ran the best local based campaign in quite some time, even picking up a couple of seats, and not losing any of them.(although I believe one republican lost re-election to another republican in the general in a trustee race as the democrat survived). 06 and 08 were rough across the board. I do have some concerns here. The cities of Howell and Brighton have had some blue streaks in the past, and seem to be doing so again. Most of them are in the "apartment" precincts. The question is whether it is 06/08 anger, or not. One precinct in Brighton isn't just 06/08. One Howell precinct is historically been a bit blue. I'd actually overall consider the cities themselves Howell more liberal (socially) than Brighton (more socially libertarian and business oriented where that stuff usually just doesn't come up), although party votes are about the same. I have my theories on that, but don't want to wave the bloody shirt, even inadvertently.

Putnam and Unadilla Twps have actually moved more to the right. They didn't flip in 06 or 08, although it was close. They are the most historically democrat areas in the county and still are very populist. The last democrat county commissioner was from that area. Both current democrat officials (partisan elected, not nonpartisan elected) are there as well. Green Oak and Hamburg always need to be watched. Green Oak has gone democrat in the past, and also has the most democrat precinct in the county (up AND down the ticket). Hamburg may or may not have gone democrat, but even if it hasn't, is in major danger because of local dumbassness (if that isn't a word, it should be). Hamburg and Green Oak are also the closest to Ann Arbor. That alone gets my guard up.I'm not counting sacrificial lamb races like the Levin races in 02/08 (where he lost the county narrowly). Those are aberrations like Mike Rogers in 2002 against McAlpine winning Lansing. 2010/2012 will be key. What does need to happen is to stop the bleeding we do have, and go back to winning with at least 62% - and not just with Mike Rogers.

North Oakland tends to nearly mirror Livingston County. The numbers there are very similar, more than I thought. Usually within 1 percent.

Shiawassee County has always been competitive at the top of the ticket. The local races and state rep races always seem close here. That's not new. It will continue to be important in all elections.

The Farm Club has some strong republicans and strong democrats. The Oakland County portion of the 8th is split within several state senate districts.

State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Isabella and Montcalm Counties are in the 4th.

St Senate 33rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Cropsey/White
49687
40771
1978
     92,436
8916
53.75%
44.11%
9.65%
02 - Cropsey/Munsell
45487
26800
2076
     74,363
18687
61.17%
36.04%
25.13%


St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.



St Senate 26th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Seiferlein/Cherry
41445
65771

   107,216
-24326
38.66%
61.34%
-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry
37852
47848

     85,700
-9996
44.17%
55.83%
-11.66%

St Senate 23 - Covers Alaiedon Twp, Aurelius Twp, Delhi Twp, City of East Lansing, Ingham Twp, City of Lansing, Lansing Twp, Leroy Twp, Locke Twp, Meridian Twp, Onondaga Twp, Wheatfield Twp, White Oak Twp, City of Williamston, and Williamstown Twp. This is a solidly democrat district that gave us Debbie Stabenow (before she was in Congress), Dianne Byrum, Virg Bernero, and now Gretchen Whitmer. It will be an open seat as Whitmer (D-Blue Cross) is running for Attorney General.


St Senate 23rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Lambert/Whitmer
27931
64404

     92,335
-36473
30.25%
69.75%
-39.50%
02 - DeWeese/Bernero
38581
44136

     82,717
-5555
46.64%
53.36%
-6.72%


St Senate 22 - Covers Livingston County, Shiawassee County, and Bunker Hill Twp, City of Leslie, Leslie Twp, City of Mason, Stockbridge Twp, and Vevay Twp in Ingham County. This is my current state senate seat. Valde Garcia is termed out after winning three elections, including a 2001 special election to replace now Congressman Mike Rogers. It's an open seat, and Joe Hune is running to replace Garcia. Joe has my support.


St State 22nd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Garcia/Anderson
65,790
43,419
2159
   111,368
22371
59.07%
38.99%
20.09%
02 - Garcia/Swonk
59,853
27,866

     87,719
31987
68.23%
31.77%
36.47%


St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....


St. Senate 15th
GOP
Dem






06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski
66,524
45,782
3101
   115,407
20742
57.64%
39.67%
17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson
57,583
35,305
2340
     95,228
22278
60.47%
37.07%
23.39%

St Senate 12 - Covers Addison Twp, City of Auburn Hills, City of Clarkston, Independence Twp, City of Keego Harbor, City of Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, City of Pontiac, City of Rochester, City of Rochester Hills, City of Sylvan Lake, and less than a precinct of West Bloomfield. This district is split between the 8th and 9th. Mike Bishop is termed out and running for Attorney General. Slightly Republican leaning, but anything with Pontiac and Auburn Hills is dangerous, because a turnout war can do what Obama did in the 8th Congressional. Luckily Rochester Hills doesn't go for Pontiac types of democrats (union/populist). It's an open seat in 2010. 


St Senate 12th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
06 - Bishop/Barrera
59,498
43,069
3048
   105,615
16429
56.33%
40.78%
15.56%
02 - Bishop/Werth
54,569
32,412

     86,981
22157
62.74%
37.26%
25.47%


St Rep 93rd   - Covers most of Clinton County and all of Gratiot County. While Clinton County made a gigantic blue shift in 2008, the biggest shift was in the portion in the 85th district which is a major cause of concern. The rest of the shift is smaller, but still a cause of concern in the 93rd. It shifted for three reasons. 1. MSU. Students are now living in Clinton County and going to MSU. That is due partly to East Lansing annexation, but more due to apartment buildings going up in the southern portion of Bath Twp. Bush won Bath Township in 2000. He lost Bath Twp in 2004, but kept Kerry under 50%. It was a 3 vote margin. In 2008, Obama won Clinton County as a whole by 279 votes. He won Bath Township by 936 votes, and East Lansing (in Clinton County) by 354 votes. That's the difference between the normal 08 blue shift, and the major shift like Isabella County. Reason 2. Government workers. Clinton County is a Lansing/East Lansing commuter county. Reason 3. Clinton GOP took the county for granted. Most of Clinton County is in the 8th district, so I am quite familiar with it. It's been GOP for years, so people assumed it would always be that way. Wrong. Luckily, the results woke them up, and Bath Twp especially. I wish I knew more about Gratiot County, but I suspect Alma College was the reason for the shift there.

Paul Opsommer is the rep for the district. He won relatively easily in 06 and 08 considering the state's recent election patterns in Clinton County. The good news is that Bath is not in this district. Part of the East Lansing precinct is. Opsommer's only 08 loss was in East Lansing. No republicans win there. DuPlain Twp was close however, although it was close in 00 and 04 for Bush too. It's in the Northeast Corner of Clinton County. In 2006, it was closer (Clinton County is more democrat in gubernatorial years due to state workers). DuPlain, East Lansing went Dem in Clinton. In Gratiot, Alma, StLouis, and Sumner went Dem.


St Rep 93rd
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Opsommer/McComb
26,515
17,957
1356
     45,828
8558
57.86%
39.18%
18.67%
06 - Opsommer/McComb
20,700
16,049

     36,749
4651
56.33%
43.67%
12.66%
04 - Hummel/Birchman
29,138
14,606

     43,744
14532
66.61%
33.39%
33.22%
02 - Hummel/Lott
20,278
10,026

     30,304
10252
66.92%
33.08%
33.83%


St rep 85th - Covers all of Shiawassee County and Bath, Ovid, and Victor Twps in Clinton County. This is going to be the big barnburner race in 2010, like it is every time it opens up. This district was held by a populist democrat for 20 years before term limits. Larry Julian won a similar district in 1998 for Republicans by 351 votes. It opened up in 2004, a GOP year in Shiawassee County, and Richard Ball won it by 3000 votes. It's open again in 2010, and the bad news is that Clinton County portions (specificaly Bath and part of East Lansing) in this district no longer help the GOP. It's up to the always unpredictable Shiawassee County. In 04, I was starting to think that Shiawassee may be moving in Livingston County's direction since 53% was a big number then. Then came 06 and 08. Shiawassee County is as competitive as it always was. It's not what I'd call a liberal area socially, but it is populist. In 08, Ball won his last term against Judy Ford. He lost East Lansing and Bath in 06 and 08. (Won Bath in 04, lost East Lansing). By percentage, Ball won Shiawassee County more than Clinton County in 2008.


St Rep 85th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Ball/Ford
23,591
19,691
1369
     44,651
3900
52.83%
44.10%
8.73%
06 - Ball/Ford
19,731
15,907

     35,638
3824
55.37%
44.63%
10.73%
04 - Ball/Powers
23,191
20,011
830
     44,032
3180
52.67%
45.45%
7.22%
02 - Julian/Kregger
18,234
11,306
549
     30,089
6928
60.60%
37.58%
23.03%

St Rep 69 - Covers the City of East Lansing, Meridian Twp, and Williamstown Twp in Ingham County. This was a seat the Republicans thought they had in 2000, but there's too much blue in East Lansing, and Meridian Twp to make this anything but a long shot race. Who know though, if Massachusetts senate race is competitive, this one can be in the right year with the right candidate. This seat is currently held by Mark Meadows, and before that Gretchen Whitmer, Laura Baird, and Lynn Jondahl (for 20 yrs?). This has been blue a long time.


St Rep 69th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Lambert/Meadows
13,806
30,981

     44,787
-17175
30.83%
69.17%
-38.35%
06 - Knowles/Meadows
10,485
21,965

     32,450
-11480
32.31%
67.69%
-35.38%
04 - Lindsay/Whitmer
14,037
26,828

     40,865
-12791
34.35%
65.65%
-31.30%
02 - Ward/Whitmer
10,783
18,002

     28,785
-7219
37.46%
62.54%
-25.08%

St Rep 68 - Covers most of the City of Lansing and Lansing Twp in Ingham County - This has been democrat as long as I've followed this district. Joan Bauer has it now. Before that, Mike Murphy (not Livingston's Murphy), Lynne Martinez, and Dave Hollister (most known as Lansing's former mayor). 


St Rep 68th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Irons/Bauer
8,394
32,282
867
     41,543
-23888
20.21%
77.71%
-57.50%
06 - Sorovigas/Bauer
6,075
22,833
1817
     30,725
-16758
19.77%
74.31%
-54.54%
04 - Harm/Murphy
11,550
27,455
886
     39,891
-15905
28.95%
68.83%
-39.87%
02 - Havis/Murphy
8,167
18,824
575
     27,566
-10657
29.63%
68.29%
-38.66%


St Rep 67 - Covers Alaiedon Twp, Aurelius Twp, Bunker Hill Twp, Delhi Twp, Ingham Twp, Part of the City of Lansing (South Lansing), Leroy Twp, City of Leslie, Locke Twp, City of Mason, Onondaga Twp, Stockbridge Twp, Vevay Twp, Wheatfield Twp, White Oak Twp, City of Williamston, and a very small portion of Williamstown Twp. This was intended to be a swing district in 2002, as a combination of the Paul DeWeese and Lingg Brewer/Virg Bernero seats, but it didn't work out as planned. Dianne Byrum was termed out as state senator, and jumped in the state rep district, with her daughter Barb following. This seat has been Byrum held since 2002. 


St Rep 67th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Herter/B. Byrum
16,800
30,717
1347
     48,864
-13917
34.38%
62.86%
-28.48%
06 - Vickers/B. Byrum
15,440
22,840

     38,280
-7400
40.33%
59.67%
-19.33%
04 - Chandler/D. Byrum
21,205
25,709

     46,914
-4504
45.20%
54.80%
-9.60%
02 - Vickers/D. Byrum
13,331
19,138

     32,469
-5807
41.06%
58.94%
-17.88%


St Rep 66 - Covers City of Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa Twp, Green Oak Twp, Marion Twp, and Oceola Twp in Livingston County, along with Milford Twp in Oakland County. Solidly Republican. Bill Rogers, former county commissioner, is the current representative winning an open seat in 2008 against Donna Anderson. Before Bill had the district, it was held by Chris Ward, Judie Scranton, and Susan Munsell. The election here is usually the primary.


St Rep 66th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - B.Rogers/Anderson
32,138
19,146
2020
     53,304
12992
60.29%
35.92%
24.37%
06 - Ward/McGonegal
27,774
14,472

     42,246
13302
65.74%
34.26%
31.49%
04 - Ward/Block
35,623
14,432

     50,055
21191
71.17%
28.83%
42.34%
02 - Ward/Block
23,599
8,826

     32,425
14773
72.78%
27.22%
45.56%


St Rep 47 - Covers Cohoctah Twp, Conway Twp, Deerfield Twp, Hamburg Twp, Handy Twp, Hartland Twp, City of Howell, Howell Twp, Iosco Twp, Putnam Twp, Tyrone Twp, and Unadilla Twp in Livingston County. Cindy Denby is the current Rep for this district, replacing Joe Hune who was term limited in 2008. Cindy was Handy Twp Supervisor beforehand, and also Joe Hune's chief of staff when he was representative. This seat was created from part of the old Paul DeWeese seat as well as part of the old Scranton seat which was shrunk due to population growth in the county. It, much like it's neighbor the 66th, is solidly republican. 


St Rep 47th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Denby/Lucas
27,851
17,059
2276
     47,186
10792
59.02%
36.15%
22.87%
06 - Hune/Andersson
23,485
14,663

     38,148
8822
61.56%
38.44%
23.13%
04 - Hune/Senkowski
32,160
13,248

     45,408
18912
70.82%
29.18%
41.65%
02 - Hune/McGivney
19,990
9,043

     29,033
10947
68.85%
31.15%
37.71%


St Rep 46 - Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County. This is one of the most Republican seats in Oakland County.


St Rep 46th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - Marleau/Houston
29,257
19,042

     48,299
10215
60.57%
39.43%
21.15%
06 - Marleau/Pearson
23,744
15,197

     38,941
8547
60.97%
39.03%
21.95%
04 - Marleau/Myslakowski
30,064
17,593

     47,657
12471
63.08%
36.92%
26.17%
02 - Johnson/Reading
21,582
8,866

     30,448
12716
70.88%
29.12%
41.76%


St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.


St Rep 44th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie
33,266
16,683

     49,949
16583
66.60%
33.40%
33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie
27,124
13,264

     40,388
13860
67.16%
32.84%
34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase
33,596
14,498
1400
     49,494
19098
67.88%
29.29%
38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan
22,788
9,748

     32,536
13040
70.04%
29.96%
40.08%


Overall, this is a district of contrasts. What makes it difficult is that there is every type of area in this district. Republican strongholds, Democrat strongholds, populist swing areas, state worker independents, union areas, rich liberal areas, business conservatives, rural conservatives, religious conservatives, NRA voters, Right to life, business conservatives, libertarians. You name it, and it can be found in the 8th district. The best candidates for districts like this is one that can walk the balancing act and unite the base, without alienating the independents. Mike Rogers has done the best of all the candidates in doing so, and that's why he survived 2006 and 2008.

2 comments:

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Republican Michigander said...

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