Sunday, January 03, 2010

Congressional District 3 (MI-03) Updated

Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed all Candidates filed.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary Results

Michigan's 3rd District - Congress
Incumbent - Vernon Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) - Updated 2/10/10 - Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election - 17.
Cook District Numbers - R+6
Candidates:
GOP - Justin Amash
Dem - Pat Miles

Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 49%
Obama - 49%
2004:
Bush – 59%
Kerry – 40%
2000:
Bush 60%
Gore 38%


This district covers almost all of Kent County (except Alpine, precinct 2 in Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships), and all of Barry and Ionia counties. This district has been Republican since the 1970's (and was Republican before that when President Ford was the rep) when Grand Rapids was last solid democrat. Today, Grand Rapids is once again solidly democrat, although the district was still republican and now I'd classify it as an "Ehlers" district. It's relatively safe for him, but could be extremely competitive when the almost 76 year old congressman (same age as Carl Levin) decides to retire. It could be soon, or it could be 20 years from now. Kildee, Sander Levin, Conyers, and Dingell are all older than Ehlers and still around. It has gone a major blue shift, like the 2nd district, in the past few years.

There are causes for concern. Ehlers had his weakest numbers in 2008 with 61%, 12 points ahead of the ticket. He had 67% in 2004 (8% ahead of the ticket), 70% in 2002, and 65% in a similar, but slightly different district in 2000. Despite that, the ticket splitters still like Ehlers as shown by running 12 points ahead of the ticket. I think this is safe for Ehlers, but not safe when he retires.

We'll start with the Ehlers 2004 numbers. I'll be subdividing Kent County, which has about 5/6 of the vote. Barry and Ionia Counties are important, but are smaller areas compared to Kent County, which is the 4th largest county in the state (behind the Detroit area counties of  Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne).

Here's the 2004 numbers. Ehlers swept the district, including the City of Grand Rapids.


2004 Election Ehlers Hickey 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Barry County 19,169 9,025 936      29,130 10144 65.81% 30.98% 34.82%
Ionia County 16,778 7,707 449      24,934 9071 67.29% 30.91% 36.38%
Kent County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 5,516 1,289 99        6,904 4227 79.90% 18.67% 61.23%
Algoma Twp 3,599 1,197 92        4,888 2402 73.63% 24.49% 49.14%
Bowne Twp 1,381 270 18        1,669 1111 82.74% 16.18% 66.57%
Byron Twp 8,349 1,715 124      10,188 6634 81.95% 16.83% 65.12%
Caledonia Twp 4,917 1,077 107        6,101 3840 80.59% 17.65% 62.94%
Cannon Twp 5,994 1,442 125        7,561 4552 79.28% 19.07% 60.20%
Cascade Twp 8,128 1,924 126      10,178 6204 79.86% 18.90% 60.96%
City of Cedar Springs 775 356 35        1,166 419 66.47% 30.53% 35.93%
Courtland Twp 2,831 790 79        3,700 2041 76.51% 21.35% 55.16%
E. Grand Rapids 4,842 1,835 76        6,753 3007 71.70% 27.17% 44.53%
Gaines Twp 8,454 2,484 152      11,090 5970 76.23% 22.40% 53.83%
City of Grand Rapids 42,224 36,553 1616      80,393 5671 52.52% 45.47% 7.05%
Grand Rapids Twp 7,104 2,022 133        9,259 5082 76.73% 21.84% 54.89%
City of Grandville 6,872 1,757 137        8,766 5115 78.39% 20.04% 58.35%
Grattan Twp 1,508 515 43        2,066 993 72.99% 24.93% 48.06%
City of Kentwood 14,239 7,042 349      21,630 7197 65.83% 32.56% 33.27%
City of Lowell 1179 508 55        1,742 671 67.68% 29.16% 38.52%
Lowell Twp 2049 728 72        2,849 1321 71.92% 25.55% 46.37%
Nelson Twp 1,435 608 69        2,112 827 67.95% 28.79% 39.16%
Oakfield Twp 1,859 803 76        2,738 1056 67.90% 29.33% 38.57%
Plainfield Twp 12,232 4,714 318      17,264 7518 70.85% 27.31% 43.55%
City of Rockford 1,875 717 51        2,643 1158 70.94% 27.13% 43.81%
Solon Twp 570 232 20          822 338 69.34% 28.22% 41.12%
Spencer Twp 1,118 647 42        1,807 471 61.87% 35.81% 26.07%
Vergennes Twp 1,792 422 59        2,273 1370 78.84% 18.57% 60.27%
City of Walker 8,061 3,438 226      11,725 4623 68.75% 29.32% 39.43%
City of Wyoming 19,615 9,558 579      29,752 10057 65.93% 32.13% 33.80%









Total 214,465 101,375 6,263 322,103 113090 66.58% 31.47% 35.11%


2008 showed some differences. The biggest was the City of Grand Rapids, followed by Kentwood and Wyoming. Ehlers actually lost the former, and the latter two make a big shift. The rest made a smaller shift against Ehlers, and the presidential numbers tell the tale.


2008 Election Ehlers Sanchez 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Barry County 18,005 9,953 936      28,894 8052 62.31% 34.45% 27.87%
Ionia County 15,758 9,300 449      25,507 6458 61.78% 36.46% 25.32%
Kent County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 5,673 1,544 257        7,474 4129 75.90% 20.66% 55.24%
Algoma Twp 3,593 1,397 219        5,209 2196 68.98% 26.82% 42.16%
Bowne Twp 1,335 295 66        1,696 1040 78.71% 17.39% 61.32%
Byron Twp 8,720 2,075 323      11,118 6645 78.43% 18.66% 59.77%
Caledonia Twp 5,004 1,401 226        6,631 3603 75.46% 21.13% 54.34%
Cannon Twp 5,903 1,684 254        7,841 4219 75.28% 21.48% 53.81%
Cascade Twp 7,970 2,287 325      10,582 5683 75.32% 21.61% 53.70%
City of Cedar Springs 745 426 51        1,222 319 60.97% 34.86% 26.10%
Courtland Twp 2,993 968 169        4,130 2025 72.47% 23.44% 49.03%
E. Grand Rapids 4,621 1,964 202        6,787 2657 68.09% 28.94% 39.15%
Gaines Twp 8,416 3,329 358      12,103 5087 69.54% 27.51% 42.03%
City of Grand Rapids 38,576 41,462 2787      82,825 -2886 46.58% 50.06% -3.48%
Grand Rapids Twp 7,069 2,363 133        9,565 4706 73.90% 24.70% 49.20%
City of Grandville 6,872 1,757 137        8,766 5115 78.39% 20.04% 58.35%
Grattan Twp 1,430 591 74        2,095 839 68.26% 28.21% 40.05%
City of Kentwood 12,929 9,118 720      22,767 3811 56.79% 40.05% 16.74%
City of Lowell 1116 611 66        1,793 505 62.24% 34.08% 28.17%
Lowell Twp 2033 788 109        2,930 1245 69.39% 26.89% 42.49%
Nelson Twp 1,380 635 107        2,122 745 65.03% 29.92% 35.11%
Oakfield Twp 1,811 913 147        2,871 898 63.08% 31.80% 31.28%
Plainfield Twp 11,999 5,109 666      17,774 6890 67.51% 28.74% 38.76%
City of Rockford 1,930 853 109        2,892 1077 66.74% 29.50% 37.24%
Solon Twp 629 306 29          964 323 65.25% 31.74% 33.51%
Spencer Twp 1,052 681 73        1,806 371 58.25% 37.71% 20.54%
Vergennes Twp 1,798 497 98        2,393 1301 75.14% 20.77% 54.37%
City of Walker 7,627 3,791 462      11,880 3836 64.20% 31.91% 32.29%
City of Wyoming 17,411 11,551 1079      30,041 5860 57.96% 38.45% 19.51%









Total 204,398 117,649 10,631 332,678 86749 61.44% 35.36% 26.08%

Here's the 2004 Presidential Numbers. Bush won everywhere here except Grand Rapids itself. It was still solidly GOP in 04.


2004 Election Bush Kerry 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Barry County 18,638 11,312 322      30,272 7326 61.57% 37.37% 24.20%
Ionia County 16,621 10,647 352      27,620 5974 60.18% 38.55% 21.63%
Kent County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 4,933 2,157 52        7,142 2776 69.07% 30.20% 38.87%
Algoma Twp 3,455 1,577 43        5,075 1878 68.08% 31.07% 37.00%
Bowne Twp 1,327 387 19        1,733 940 76.57% 22.33% 54.24%
Byron Twp 8,084 2,264 59      10,407 5820 77.68% 21.75% 55.92%
Caledonia Twp 4,662 1,570 46        6,278 3092 74.26% 25.01% 49.25%
Cannon Twp 5,572 2,222 76        7,870 3350 70.80% 28.23% 42.57%
Cascade Twp 7,254 3,160 83      10,497 4094 69.11% 30.10% 39.00%
City of Cedar Springs 764 446 13        1,223 318 62.47% 36.47% 26.00%
Courtland Twp 2,667 1,132 38        3,837 1535 69.51% 29.50% 40.01%
E. Grand Rapids 3,807 3,107 48        6,962 700 54.68% 44.63% 10.05%
Gaines Twp 8,110 3,202 80      11,392 4908 71.19% 28.11% 43.08%
City of Grand Rapids 36,115 45,794 900      82,809 -9679 43.61% 55.30% -11.69%
Grand Rapids Twp 6,349 3,077 84        9,510 3272 66.76% 32.36% 34.41%
City of Grandville 6,567 2,397 77        9,041 4170 72.64% 26.51% 46.12%
Grattan Twp 1,367 756 18        2,141 611 63.85% 35.31% 28.54%
City of Kentwood 13,014 9,126 188      22,328 3888 58.29% 40.87% 17.41%
City of Lowell 1072 701 26        1,799 371 59.59% 38.97% 20.62%
Lowell Twp 1885 1,047 30        2,962 838 63.64% 35.35% 28.29%
Nelson Twp 1,370 797 29        2,196 573 62.39% 36.29% 26.09%
Oakfield Twp 1,763 1,060 34        2,857 703 61.71% 37.10% 24.61%
Plainfield Twp 11,130 6,265 178      17,573 4865 63.34% 35.65% 27.68%
City of Rockford 1,708 1,002 25        2,735 706 62.45% 36.64% 25.81%
Solon Twp (1) 528 329 11          868 199 60.83% 37.90% 22.93%
Spencer Twp 1,039 803 26        1,868 236 55.62% 42.99% 12.63%
Vergennes Twp 1,640 672 21        2,333 968 70.30% 28.80% 41.49%
City of Walker 7,528 4,472 129      12,129 3056 62.07% 36.87% 25.20%
City of Wyoming 18,524 11,979 276      30,779 6545 60.18% 38.92% 21.26%









Total 197,493 133,460 3,283 334,236 64033 59.09% 39.93% 19.16%

59% overall. 58.71% in the Kent County portion of the district.  Grand Rapids was blue, but only E. Grand Rapids, Kentwood, Lowell, and Spencer Twp were under 60% GOP. Then there's 2008.


2008 Election McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Barry County 16,431 13,449 685      30,565 2982 53.76% 44.00% 9.76%
Ionia County 14,156 12,265 598      27,019 1891 52.39% 45.39% 7.00%
Kent County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ada Twp 4,668 2,965 80        7,713 1703 60.52% 38.44% 22.08%
Algoma Twp 3,197 2,110 113        5,420 1087 58.99% 38.93% 20.06%
Bowne Twp 1,257 476 26        1,759 781 71.46% 27.06% 44.40%
Byron Twp 8,055 3,195 170      11,420 4860 70.53% 27.98% 42.56%
Caledonia Twp 4,492 2,259 113        6,864 2233 65.44% 32.91% 32.53%
Cannon Twp 5,163 2,893 123        8,179 2270 63.13% 35.37% 27.75%
Cascade Twp 6,610 4,176 132      10,918 2434 60.54% 38.25% 22.29%
City of Cedar Springs 647 601 27        1,275 46 50.75% 47.14% 3.61%
Courtland Twp 2,656 1,555 79        4,290 1101 61.91% 36.25% 25.66%
E. Grand Rapids 3,155 3,753 67        6,975 -598 45.23% 53.81% -8.57%
Gaines Twp 7,542 4,788 185      12,515 2754 60.26% 38.26% 22.01%
City of Grand Rapids 28,372 56,146 1466      85,984 -27774 33.00% 65.30% -32.30%
Grand Rapids Twp 5,716 4,185 131      10,032 1531 56.98% 41.72% 15.26%
City of Grandville 5,555 3,209 133        8,897 2346 62.44% 36.07% 26.37%
Grattan Twp 1,233 913 36        2,182 320 56.51% 41.84% 14.67%
City of Kentwood 10,636 12,587 236      23,459 -1951 45.34% 53.66% -8.32%
City of Lowell 921 915 43        1,879 6 49.02% 48.70% 0.32%
Lowell Twp 1734 1,244 58        3,036 490 57.11% 40.97% 16.14%
Nelson Twp 1,216 970 58        2,244 246 54.19% 43.23% 10.96%
Oakfield Twp 1,591 1,364 65        3,020 227 52.68% 45.17% 7.52%
Plainfield Twp 10,053 7,959 301      18,313 2094 54.90% 43.46% 11.43%
City of Rockford 1,615 1,346 42        3,003 269 53.78% 44.82% 8.96%
Solon Twp (1) 540 439 14          993 101 54.38% 44.21% 10.17%
Spencer Twp 953 893 40        1,886 60 50.53% 47.35% 3.18%
Vergennes Twp 1,550 898 32        2,480 652 62.50% 36.21% 26.29%
City of Walker 6,499 5,648 241      12,388 851 52.46% 45.59% 6.87%
City of Wyoming 15,042 15,682 581      31,305 -640 48.05% 50.09% -2.04%









Total 171,255 168,883 5,875 346,013 2372 49.49% 48.81% 0.69%


This is bad folks. Really really bad. Kent County itself flipped, and the part of Kent in the district went 49.64% for Obama. McCain got 53.12% in the non Kent portion to keep the district "red." However, the GOP needs to get 60% here statewide. Obama made up about 62,000 of Bush's nearly 64,000 vote spread.  For comparison's sake.

Non Kent County:
2004 - Bush 60.90%, Kerry 37.93%, 57,982 votes. - Vote spread of 13,300
2008 - McCain 53.12%, Obama 44.65%, 57,584 votes. - Vote spread of 4,873

City of Grand Rapids
2004 - Kerry 55.30%, Bush 43.61%, 82,809 votes. - Vote spread of -9679
2008 - Obama 65.30%, McCain 33.00%, 85,984 votes.  - Vote Spread of -27,774

Grand Rapids Suburbs (E. Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grandville Kentwood, Walker, Wyoming)
2004 - Bush 61.44%, Kerry 37.67%, 92548 votes - Vote spread of 22,002 votes.
2008 - McCain 50.08%, Obama 48.43%, 93,056 votes - Vote spread of 1539 votes.

Outer Kent County:
2004 - Bush 68.44%, Kerry 30.70%, 102,764 votes - Vote spread of 38,781 votes
2008 - McCain 60.05%, Obama 38.36%, 109,389 votes - Vote spread of 23,784 votes.


While the outer county and rural counties turned on the GOP, it was nothing like the city and suburbs of Grand Rapids. This bleeding needs to stop. As late as 2000 and 2002, Grand Rapids itself was competitive and the burbs were untouchable by the democrats. Now, GR seems untouchable for the GOP, and the burbs are competitive. This needs to change fast, and hopefully what has caught on in Virginia is going to catch on here.

The good news is that if Ehlers retires, there is a large farm club of GOP representatives.

State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Only Ionia County is in the 3rd district.


St Senate 33rd GOP Dem 3rd party




06 - Cropsey/White 49687 40771 1978      92,436 8916 53.75% 44.11% 9.65%
02 - Cropsey/Munsell 45487 26800 2076      74,363 18687 61.17% 36.04% 25.13%

St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. Only Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.


St Senate 30th GOP Dem 3rd party




06 - Kuipers/VanderStoep 83,242 31,328 2223    116,793 51914 71.27% 26.82% 44.45%
02 - Kuipers/O'Brien 71,160 21,701 1637      94,498 49459 75.30% 22.96% 52.34%

St Senate 29th - Covers Cascade Twp, City of Grand Rapids, Grattan Twp, City of Kentwood, Lowell Twp, City of Lowell, and Vergennes Twp in Kent County. The redistricters had their heads up their butts drawing this. Why combine Kentwood and Grand Rapids? It's a very competitive seat and opening up with the term limited Bill Hardiman stepping down after two tough wins.


St Senate 29th GOP Dem 3rd party




06 - Hardiman/LaGrand 51,900 45,600 1431      98,931 6300 52.46% 46.09% 6.37%
02 - Hardiman/Pestka 44,202 36,746 1178      82,126 7456 53.82% 44.74% 9.08%

St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp,  Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. All except Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp are  in the district.


St Senate 28th GOP Dem 3rd party




06 - Jansen/Abbassee 78,234 42,227 2646    123,107 36007 63.55% 34.30% 29.25%
02 - Sikkema/Berry 72,993 25,425 1373      99,791 47568 73.15% 25.48% 47.67%

St. Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Barry is in the 3rd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.


St Senate 24th GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston 64,737 46,480
   111,217 18257 58.21% 41.79% 16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson 57,906 32,170
     90,076 25736 64.29% 35.71% 28.57%

St Rep 87th - Covers Barry and Ionia Counties. Brian Calley I believe has one term remaining.


St Rep 87th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Calley/Grieves 29,583 14,360 2142      46,085 15223 64.19% 31.16% 33.03%
06 - Calley/Kalnbach 21,527 15,504 1195      38,226 6023 56.32% 40.56% 15.76%
04 - Newell/Brinkert 28,482 15,689 1035      45,206 12793 63.00% 34.71% 28.30%
02 - Newell/Lukasiewicz 19,676 11,020
     30,696 8656 64.10% 35.90% 28.20%


St. Rep 86th - Covers Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, part of the City of Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grattan Twp, City of Lowell, Lowell Twp, Vergennes Twp, and City of Walker. Dave Hildenbrand is current incumbent and is rumored to be running for the open 29th State Senate position. Tough seat to keep. Good luck. This open seat should be solidly GOP.


St Rep 86th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Hildenbrand/Casalini 34,002 17,137 1565      52,704 16865 64.52% 32.52% 32.00%
06 - Hildenbrand/Casalini 28,716 15,085 819      44,620 13631 64.36% 33.81% 30.55%
04 - Hildenbrand/Turner 34,664 15,994 938      51,596 18670 67.18% 31.00% 36.18%
02 - Koetje/McDonald 24,865 10,456 747      36,068 14409 68.94% 28.99% 39.95%


St Rep 77th - Covers Byron Twp and Wyoming. Strongly leans GOP even with Wyoming's recent blue streak. This seat opens up as well as Kevin Green is termed out.


St Rep 77th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Green/Geerlings 25,338 14,125 1161      40,624 11213 62.37% 34.77% 27.60%
06 - Green/Ficeli 21,344 9,225 1058      31,627 12119 67.49% 29.17% 38.32%
04 - Green/Abbassee 26,158 11,459 1957      39,574 14699 66.10% 28.96% 37.14%
02 - Voorhees/Smith 18,103 7,070 447      25,620 11033 70.66% 27.60% 43.06%


St Rep 76th - Covers Western Grand Rapids - Strongly democrat, and has been for a long time. Roy Schmidt is the incumbent.


St Rep 76th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Tonnemacher/Schmidt 7,049 23,416 2362      32,827 -16367 21.47% 71.33% -49.86%
06 - Liberski/Sak 6,119 17,825 540      24,484 -11706 24.99% 72.80% -47.81%
04 - Zuidema/Sak 9,591 21,091 600      31,282 -11500 30.66% 67.42% -36.76%
02 - Kuibik/Sak 7,216 11,770 405      19,391 -4554 37.21% 60.70% -23.49%


St Rep 75th - Covers Eastern Grand Rapids - Has recently rapidly shifted blue, although it ticket splitted for awhile, even as John Kerry won it by over 4000 votes (and Obama much more than that). The question is whether the bleeding can or has been stopped here.


St Rep 75th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Tietema/Dean 16,950 24,683 880      42,513 -7733 39.87% 58.06% -18.19%
06 - Doyle/Dean 15,964 17,465 592      34,021 -1501 46.92% 51.34% -4.41%
04 - Kooiman/Vogt 21,273 19,465
     40,738 1808 52.22% 47.78% 4.44%
02 - Kooiman/Vander Meulen 15,340 12,737
     28,077 2603 54.64% 45.36% 9.27%


St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. Only Grandville is in the 3rd District.


St Rep 74th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Agema/Chase 36,207 13,421 1911      51,539 22786 70.25% 26.04% 44.21%
06 - Agema/Kauffman 30,495 12,109 880      43,484 18386 70.13% 27.85% 42.28%
04 - VanRegenmorter/Sloboda 38,380 12,009 719      51,108 26371 75.10% 23.50% 51.60%
02 - VanRegenmorter/Barringer 28,234 7,492 407      36,133 20742 78.14% 20.73% 57.40%


St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.


St Rep 73rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Pearce/Hawley 31,757 20,624 1516      53,897 11133 58.92% 38.27% 20.66%
06 - Pearce/Marckini 28,636 14,714 1010      44,360 13922 64.55% 33.17% 31.38%
04 - Pearce/Clowney 35,035 15,277 1179      51,491 19758 68.04% 29.67% 38.37%
02 - Hart/Clowney 24,370 9,845 628      34,843 14525 69.94% 28.26% 41.69%


St Rep 72nd - Covers Caledonia Twp, Cascade Twp, Gaines Twp, and Kentwood. Solidly GOP. Justin Amash won it despite barely winning Kentwood as an open seat. The townships are still safely GOP.


St Rep 72nd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Amash/Abbasse 31,245 18,463 1559      51,267 12782 60.95% 36.01% 24.93%
06 - Steil Jr./Hinton 27,005 13,055 1091      41,151 13950 65.62% 31.72% 33.90%
04 - Steil Jr./Burke 33,283 14,594 765      48,642 18689 68.42% 30.00% 38.42%
02 - Steil Jr./Vogt 24,166 8,391 655      33,212 15775 72.76% 25.26% 47.50%


St Rep 70 - Covers Montcalm and Part of Ionia County - This should be a competitive seat. If the GOP is going to take back the state house, this is a good first target.


St Rep 70th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Ginster/Huckleberry 16,234 18,983
     35,217 -2749 46.10% 53.90% -7.81%
06 - Emmons/Mahar 18,382 10,704
     29,086 7678 63.20% 36.80% 26.40%
04 - Emmons/Sanchez 22,774 11,732
     34,506 11042 66.00% 34.00% 32.00%
02 - Emmons/Sanchez 14,610 7,588
     22,198 7022 65.82% 34.18% 31.63%


This district should be safe as long as Ehlers is running for re-election.  After that, it depends on dynamics of the state and who the candidate is. If the GOP stops the bleeding in Kent County, we'll be fine. 08 was the perfect storm. Bush is unpopular, and stepped down. McCain's support among conservatives was lukewarm. McCain not only quit campaigning in Michigan, one of his staffers was a dumbass and announced it to the world ticking off independents. This was in 08. Today, Obama's popularity has gone down. Granholm is as popular as Bush was, and things are starting to level out, even in the Northeast. How that translates to Michigan 2010, we don't know.

What I mentioned in the 2nd District and Muskegon County applies here too. Stop the bleeding. If Kent returns to 2000 form, we have a chance to take the gubernatorial race. We need a good 60% here. If it's less than 55%, Cherry (or Dillon) wins.

Updated 5-18-2010 - There's a primary on both sides. Five way on the GOP side, and one on one with the dems. Three of the GOP candidates are fairly well known, although anything can happen in a five way race. Regardless of the result, we should keep this district.

No comments: