Congressional District 3 (MI-03) Updated

Updated 5-18-2010 - Listed all Candidates filed.
Updated 8-4-2010 - Primary Results

Michigan's 3rd District - Congress
Incumbent - Vernon Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) - Updated 2/10/10 - Not running for re-election
Years in office as of 2010 election - 17.
Cook District Numbers - R+6
Candidates:
GOP - Justin Amash
Dem - Pat Miles

Barone’s numbers
2008:
McCain - 49%
Obama - 49%
2004:
Bush – 59%
Kerry – 40%
2000:
Bush 60%
Gore 38%

This district covers almost all of Kent County (except Alpine, precinct 2 in Solon, Sparta, and Tyrone Townships), and all of Barry and Ionia counties. This district has been Republican since the 1970's (and was Republican before that when President Ford was the rep) when Grand Rapids was last solid democrat. Today, Grand Rapids is once again solidly democrat, although the district was still republican and now I'd classify it as an "Ehlers" district. It's relatively safe for him, but could be extremely competitive when the almost 76 year old congressman (same age as Carl Levin) decides to retire. It could be soon, or it could be 20 years from now. Kildee, Sander Levin, Conyers, and Dingell are all older than Ehlers and still around. It has gone a major blue shift, like the 2nd district, in the past few years.

There are causes for concern. Ehlers had his weakest numbers in 2008 with 61%, 12 points ahead of the ticket. He had 67% in 2004 (8% ahead of the ticket), 70% in 2002, and 65% in a similar, but slightly different district in 2000. Despite that, the ticket splitters still like Ehlers as shown by running 12 points ahead of the ticket. I think this is safe for Ehlers, but not safe when he retires.

We'll start with the Ehlers 2004 numbers. I'll be subdividing Kent County, which has about 5/6 of the vote. Barry and Ionia Counties are important, but are smaller areas compared to Kent County, which is the 4th largest county in the state (behind the Detroit area counties of  Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne).

Here's the 2004 numbers. Ehlers swept the district, including the City of Grand Rapids.

2004 Election	Ehlers	Hickey	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	19,169	9,025	936	29,130	10144	65.81%	30.98%	34.82%
Ionia County	16,778	7,707	449	24,934	9071	67.29%	30.91%	36.38%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	5,516	1,289	99	6,904	4227	79.90%	18.67%	61.23%
Algoma Twp	3,599	1,197	92	4,888	2402	73.63%	24.49%	49.14%
Bowne Twp	1,381	270	18	1,669	1111	82.74%	16.18%	66.57%
Byron Twp	8,349	1,715	124	10,188	6634	81.95%	16.83%	65.12%
Caledonia Twp	4,917	1,077	107	6,101	3840	80.59%	17.65%	62.94%
Cannon Twp	5,994	1,442	125	7,561	4552	79.28%	19.07%	60.20%
Cascade Twp	8,128	1,924	126	10,178	6204	79.86%	18.90%	60.96%
City of Cedar Springs	775	356	35	1,166	419	66.47%	30.53%	35.93%
Courtland Twp	2,831	790	79	3,700	2041	76.51%	21.35%	55.16%
E. Grand Rapids	4,842	1,835	76	6,753	3007	71.70%	27.17%	44.53%
Gaines Twp	8,454	2,484	152	11,090	5970	76.23%	22.40%	53.83%
City of Grand Rapids	42,224	36,553	1616	80,393	5671	52.52%	45.47%	7.05%
Grand Rapids Twp	7,104	2,022	133	9,259	5082	76.73%	21.84%	54.89%
City of Grandville	6,872	1,757	137	8,766	5115	78.39%	20.04%	58.35%
Grattan Twp	1,508	515	43	2,066	993	72.99%	24.93%	48.06%
City of Kentwood	14,239	7,042	349	21,630	7197	65.83%	32.56%	33.27%
City of Lowell	1179	508	55	1,742	671	67.68%	29.16%	38.52%
Lowell Twp	2049	728	72	2,849	1321	71.92%	25.55%	46.37%
Nelson Twp	1,435	608	69	2,112	827	67.95%	28.79%	39.16%
Oakfield Twp	1,859	803	76	2,738	1056	67.90%	29.33%	38.57%
Plainfield Twp	12,232	4,714	318	17,264	7518	70.85%	27.31%	43.55%
City of Rockford	1,875	717	51	2,643	1158	70.94%	27.13%	43.81%
Solon Twp	570	232	20	822	338	69.34%	28.22%	41.12%
Spencer Twp	1,118	647	42	1,807	471	61.87%	35.81%	26.07%
Vergennes Twp	1,792	422	59	2,273	1370	78.84%	18.57%	60.27%
City of Walker	8,061	3,438	226	11,725	4623	68.75%	29.32%	39.43%
City of Wyoming	19,615	9,558	579	29,752	10057	65.93%	32.13%	33.80%
Total	214,465	101,375	6,263	322,103	113090	66.58%	31.47%	35.11%

2008 showed some differences. The biggest was the City of Grand Rapids, followed by Kentwood and Wyoming. Ehlers actually lost the former, and the latter two make a big shift. The rest made a smaller shift against Ehlers, and the presidential numbers tell the tale.

2008 Election	Ehlers	Sanchez	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	18,005	9,953	936	28,894	8052	62.31%	34.45%	27.87%
Ionia County	15,758	9,300	449	25,507	6458	61.78%	36.46%	25.32%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	5,673	1,544	257	7,474	4129	75.90%	20.66%	55.24%
Algoma Twp	3,593	1,397	219	5,209	2196	68.98%	26.82%	42.16%
Bowne Twp	1,335	295	66	1,696	1040	78.71%	17.39%	61.32%
Byron Twp	8,720	2,075	323	11,118	6645	78.43%	18.66%	59.77%
Caledonia Twp	5,004	1,401	226	6,631	3603	75.46%	21.13%	54.34%
Cannon Twp	5,903	1,684	254	7,841	4219	75.28%	21.48%	53.81%
Cascade Twp	7,970	2,287	325	10,582	5683	75.32%	21.61%	53.70%
City of Cedar Springs	745	426	51	1,222	319	60.97%	34.86%	26.10%
Courtland Twp	2,993	968	169	4,130	2025	72.47%	23.44%	49.03%
E. Grand Rapids	4,621	1,964	202	6,787	2657	68.09%	28.94%	39.15%
Gaines Twp	8,416	3,329	358	12,103	5087	69.54%	27.51%	42.03%
City of Grand Rapids	38,576	41,462	2787	82,825	-2886	46.58%	50.06%	-3.48%
Grand Rapids Twp	7,069	2,363	133	9,565	4706	73.90%	24.70%	49.20%
City of Grandville	6,872	1,757	137	8,766	5115	78.39%	20.04%	58.35%
Grattan Twp	1,430	591	74	2,095	839	68.26%	28.21%	40.05%
City of Kentwood	12,929	9,118	720	22,767	3811	56.79%	40.05%	16.74%
City of Lowell	1116	611	66	1,793	505	62.24%	34.08%	28.17%
Lowell Twp	2033	788	109	2,930	1245	69.39%	26.89%	42.49%
Nelson Twp	1,380	635	107	2,122	745	65.03%	29.92%	35.11%
Oakfield Twp	1,811	913	147	2,871	898	63.08%	31.80%	31.28%
Plainfield Twp	11,999	5,109	666	17,774	6890	67.51%	28.74%	38.76%
City of Rockford	1,930	853	109	2,892	1077	66.74%	29.50%	37.24%
Solon Twp	629	306	29	964	323	65.25%	31.74%	33.51%
Spencer Twp	1,052	681	73	1,806	371	58.25%	37.71%	20.54%
Vergennes Twp	1,798	497	98	2,393	1301	75.14%	20.77%	54.37%
City of Walker	7,627	3,791	462	11,880	3836	64.20%	31.91%	32.29%
City of Wyoming	17,411	11,551	1079	30,041	5860	57.96%	38.45%	19.51%
Total	204,398	117,649	10,631	332,678	86749	61.44%	35.36%	26.08%

Here's the 2004 Presidential Numbers. Bush won everywhere here except Grand Rapids itself. It was still solidly GOP in 04.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	18,638	11,312	322	30,272	7326	61.57%	37.37%	24.20%
Ionia County	16,621	10,647	352	27,620	5974	60.18%	38.55%	21.63%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4,933	2,157	52	7,142	2776	69.07%	30.20%	38.87%
Algoma Twp	3,455	1,577	43	5,075	1878	68.08%	31.07%	37.00%
Bowne Twp	1,327	387	19	1,733	940	76.57%	22.33%	54.24%
Byron Twp	8,084	2,264	59	10,407	5820	77.68%	21.75%	55.92%
Caledonia Twp	4,662	1,570	46	6,278	3092	74.26%	25.01%	49.25%
Cannon Twp	5,572	2,222	76	7,870	3350	70.80%	28.23%	42.57%
Cascade Twp	7,254	3,160	83	10,497	4094	69.11%	30.10%	39.00%
City of Cedar Springs	764	446	13	1,223	318	62.47%	36.47%	26.00%
Courtland Twp	2,667	1,132	38	3,837	1535	69.51%	29.50%	40.01%
E. Grand Rapids	3,807	3,107	48	6,962	700	54.68%	44.63%	10.05%
Gaines Twp	8,110	3,202	80	11,392	4908	71.19%	28.11%	43.08%
City of Grand Rapids	36,115	45,794	900	82,809	-9679	43.61%	55.30%	-11.69%
Grand Rapids Twp	6,349	3,077	84	9,510	3272	66.76%	32.36%	34.41%
City of Grandville	6,567	2,397	77	9,041	4170	72.64%	26.51%	46.12%
Grattan Twp	1,367	756	18	2,141	611	63.85%	35.31%	28.54%
City of Kentwood	13,014	9,126	188	22,328	3888	58.29%	40.87%	17.41%
City of Lowell	1072	701	26	1,799	371	59.59%	38.97%	20.62%
Lowell Twp	1885	1,047	30	2,962	838	63.64%	35.35%	28.29%
Nelson Twp	1,370	797	29	2,196	573	62.39%	36.29%	26.09%
Oakfield Twp	1,763	1,060	34	2,857	703	61.71%	37.10%	24.61%
Plainfield Twp	11,130	6,265	178	17,573	4865	63.34%	35.65%	27.68%
City of Rockford	1,708	1,002	25	2,735	706	62.45%	36.64%	25.81%
Solon Twp (1)	528	329	11	868	199	60.83%	37.90%	22.93%
Spencer Twp	1,039	803	26	1,868	236	55.62%	42.99%	12.63%
Vergennes Twp	1,640	672	21	2,333	968	70.30%	28.80%	41.49%
City of Walker	7,528	4,472	129	12,129	3056	62.07%	36.87%	25.20%
City of Wyoming	18,524	11,979	276	30,779	6545	60.18%	38.92%	21.26%
Total	197,493	133,460	3,283	334,236	64033	59.09%	39.93%	19.16%

59% overall. 58.71% in the Kent County portion of the district.  Grand Rapids was blue, but only E. Grand Rapids, Kentwood, Lowell, and Spencer Twp were under 60% GOP. Then there's 2008.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Barry County	16,431	13,449	685	30,565	2982	53.76%	44.00%	9.76%
Ionia County	14,156	12,265	598	27,019	1891	52.39%	45.39%	7.00%
Kent County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4,668	2,965	80	7,713	1703	60.52%	38.44%	22.08%
Algoma Twp	3,197	2,110	113	5,420	1087	58.99%	38.93%	20.06%
Bowne Twp	1,257	476	26	1,759	781	71.46%	27.06%	44.40%
Byron Twp	8,055	3,195	170	11,420	4860	70.53%	27.98%	42.56%
Caledonia Twp	4,492	2,259	113	6,864	2233	65.44%	32.91%	32.53%
Cannon Twp	5,163	2,893	123	8,179	2270	63.13%	35.37%	27.75%
Cascade Twp	6,610	4,176	132	10,918	2434	60.54%	38.25%	22.29%
City of Cedar Springs	647	601	27	1,275	46	50.75%	47.14%	3.61%
Courtland Twp	2,656	1,555	79	4,290	1101	61.91%	36.25%	25.66%
E. Grand Rapids	3,155	3,753	67	6,975	-598	45.23%	53.81%	-8.57%
Gaines Twp	7,542	4,788	185	12,515	2754	60.26%	38.26%	22.01%
City of Grand Rapids	28,372	56,146	1466	85,984	-27774	33.00%	65.30%	-32.30%
Grand Rapids Twp	5,716	4,185	131	10,032	1531	56.98%	41.72%	15.26%
City of Grandville	5,555	3,209	133	8,897	2346	62.44%	36.07%	26.37%
Grattan Twp	1,233	913	36	2,182	320	56.51%	41.84%	14.67%
City of Kentwood	10,636	12,587	236	23,459	-1951	45.34%	53.66%	-8.32%
City of Lowell	921	915	43	1,879	6	49.02%	48.70%	0.32%
Lowell Twp	1734	1,244	58	3,036	490	57.11%	40.97%	16.14%
Nelson Twp	1,216	970	58	2,244	246	54.19%	43.23%	10.96%
Oakfield Twp	1,591	1,364	65	3,020	227	52.68%	45.17%	7.52%
Plainfield Twp	10,053	7,959	301	18,313	2094	54.90%	43.46%	11.43%
City of Rockford	1,615	1,346	42	3,003	269	53.78%	44.82%	8.96%
Solon Twp (1)	540	439	14	993	101	54.38%	44.21%	10.17%
Spencer Twp	953	893	40	1,886	60	50.53%	47.35%	3.18%
Vergennes Twp	1,550	898	32	2,480	652	62.50%	36.21%	26.29%
City of Walker	6,499	5,648	241	12,388	851	52.46%	45.59%	6.87%
City of Wyoming	15,042	15,682	581	31,305	-640	48.05%	50.09%	-2.04%
Total	171,255	168,883	5,875	346,013	2372	49.49%	48.81%	0.69%

This is bad folks. Really really bad. Kent County itself flipped, and the part of Kent in the district went 49.64% for Obama. McCain got 53.12% in the non Kent portion to keep the district "red." However, the GOP needs to get 60% here statewide. Obama made up about 62,000 of Bush's nearly 64,000 vote spread.  For comparison's sake.

Non Kent County:
2004 - Bush 60.90%, Kerry 37.93%, 57,982 votes. - Vote spread of 13,300
2008 - McCain 53.12%, Obama 44.65%, 57,584 votes. - Vote spread of 4,873

City of Grand Rapids
2004 - Kerry 55.30%, Bush 43.61%, 82,809 votes. - Vote spread of -9679
2008 - Obama 65.30%, McCain 33.00%, 85,984 votes.  - Vote Spread of -27,774

Grand Rapids Suburbs (E. Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grandville Kentwood, Walker, Wyoming)
2004 - Bush 61.44%, Kerry 37.67%, 92548 votes - Vote spread of 22,002 votes.
2008 - McCain 50.08%, Obama 48.43%, 93,056 votes - Vote spread of 1539 votes.

Outer Kent County:
2004 - Bush 68.44%, Kerry 30.70%, 102,764 votes - Vote spread of 38,781 votes
2008 - McCain 60.05%, Obama 38.36%, 109,389 votes - Vote spread of 23,784 votes.


While the outer county and rural counties turned on the GOP, it was nothing like the city and suburbs of Grand Rapids. This bleeding needs to stop. As late as 2000 and 2002, Grand Rapids itself was competitive and the burbs were untouchable by the democrats. Now, GR seems untouchable for the GOP, and the burbs are competitive. This needs to change fast, and hopefully what has caught on in Virginia is going to catch on here.

The good news is that if Ehlers retires, there is a large farm club of GOP representatives.

State Senate 33rd - Covers Clinton, Ionia, Isabella, and Montcalm Counties. This is a potentially competitive district now that the dems are competitive in Clinton and Montcalm counties. Isabella County has gone more and more blue with Central Michigan (Cropsey won it in 02, lost it in 06), so this can be one to watch. Alan Cropsey is termed out. He's from Clinton County in the 8th District. Only Ionia County is in the 3rd district.

St Senate 33rd	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Cropsey/White	49687	40771	1978	92,436	8916	53.75%	44.11%	9.65%
02 - Cropsey/Munsell	45487	26800	2076	74,363	18687	61.17%	36.04%	25.13%

St Senate 30th - Covers Ottawa County, and in Kent County the City of Grandville, Sparta Township. Only Grandville is in the 2nd district. Wayne Kuipers is termed out and running for Hoekstra's seat.

St Senate 30th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Kuipers/VanderStoep	83,242	31,328	2223	116,793	51914	71.27%	26.82%	44.45%
02 - Kuipers/O'Brien	71,160	21,701	1637	94,498	49459	75.30%	22.96%	52.34%

St Senate 29th - Covers Cascade Twp, City of Grand Rapids, Grattan Twp, City of Kentwood, Lowell Twp, City of Lowell, and Vergennes Twp in Kent County. The redistricters had their heads up their butts drawing this. Why combine Kentwood and Grand Rapids? It's a very competitive seat and opening up with the term limited Bill Hardiman stepping down after two tough wins.

St Senate 29th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Hardiman/LaGrand	51,900	45,600	1431	98,931	6300	52.46%	46.09%	6.37%
02 - Hardiman/Pestka	44,202	36,746	1178	82,126	7456	53.82%	44.74%	9.08%

St Senate 28th - Covers Ada Twp, Algoma Twp, Alpine Twp, Bowne Twp, Byron Twp, Caledonia Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, Gaines Twp, Grand Rapids twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp,  Spencer Twp, Tyrone Twp, City of Walker, and City of Wyoming. All except Alpine Twp, part of Solon Twp, and Tyrone Twp are  in the district.

St Senate 28th	GOP	Dem	3rd party
06 - Jansen/Abbassee	78,234	42,227	2646	123,107	36007	63.55%	34.30%	29.25%
02 - Sikkema/Berry	72,993	25,425	1373	99,791	47568	73.15%	25.48%	47.67%

St. Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Barry is in the 3rd district. It's a solid GOP district, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.

St Senate 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston	64,737	46,480		111,217	18257	58.21%	41.79%	16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson	57,906	32,170		90,076	25736	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%

St Rep 87th - Covers Barry and Ionia Counties. Brian Calley I believe has one term remaining.

St Rep 87th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Calley/Grieves	29,583	14,360	2142	46,085	15223	64.19%	31.16%	33.03%
06 - Calley/Kalnbach	21,527	15,504	1195	38,226	6023	56.32%	40.56%	15.76%
04 - Newell/Brinkert	28,482	15,689	1035	45,206	12793	63.00%	34.71%	28.30%
02 - Newell/Lukasiewicz	19,676	11,020		30,696	8656	64.10%	35.90%	28.20%

St. Rep 86th - Covers Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, City of East Grand Rapids, part of the City of Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Twp, Grattan Twp, City of Lowell, Lowell Twp, Vergennes Twp, and City of Walker. Dave Hildenbrand is current incumbent and is rumored to be running for the open 29th State Senate position. Tough seat to keep. Good luck. This open seat should be solidly GOP.

St Rep 86th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Hildenbrand/Casalini	34,002	17,137	1565	52,704	16865	64.52%	32.52%	32.00%
06 - Hildenbrand/Casalini	28,716	15,085	819	44,620	13631	64.36%	33.81%	30.55%
04 - Hildenbrand/Turner	34,664	15,994	938	51,596	18670	67.18%	31.00%	36.18%
02 - Koetje/McDonald	24,865	10,456	747	36,068	14409	68.94%	28.99%	39.95%

St Rep 77th - Covers Byron Twp and Wyoming. Strongly leans GOP even with Wyoming's recent blue streak. This seat opens up as well as Kevin Green is termed out.

St Rep 77th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Green/Geerlings	25,338	14,125	1161	40,624	11213	62.37%	34.77%	27.60%
06 - Green/Ficeli	21,344	9,225	1058	31,627	12119	67.49%	29.17%	38.32%
04 - Green/Abbassee	26,158	11,459	1957	39,574	14699	66.10%	28.96%	37.14%
02 - Voorhees/Smith	18,103	7,070	447	25,620	11033	70.66%	27.60%	43.06%

St Rep 76th - Covers Western Grand Rapids - Strongly democrat, and has been for a long time. Roy Schmidt is the incumbent.

St Rep 76th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tonnemacher/Schmidt	7,049	23,416	2362	32,827	-16367	21.47%	71.33%	-49.86%
06 - Liberski/Sak	6,119	17,825	540	24,484	-11706	24.99%	72.80%	-47.81%
04 - Zuidema/Sak	9,591	21,091	600	31,282	-11500	30.66%	67.42%	-36.76%
02 - Kuibik/Sak	7,216	11,770	405	19,391	-4554	37.21%	60.70%	-23.49%

St Rep 75th - Covers Eastern Grand Rapids - Has recently rapidly shifted blue, although it ticket splitted for awhile, even as John Kerry won it by over 4000 votes (and Obama much more than that). The question is whether the bleeding can or has been stopped here.

St Rep 75th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Tietema/Dean	16,950	24,683	880	42,513	-7733	39.87%	58.06%	-18.19%
06 - Doyle/Dean	15,964	17,465	592	34,021	-1501	46.92%	51.34%	-4.41%
04 - Kooiman/Vogt	21,273	19,465		40,738	1808	52.22%	47.78%	4.44%
02 - Kooiman/Vander Meulen	15,340	12,737		28,077	2603	54.64%	45.36%	9.27%

St Rep 74 -Covers Alpine Twp and the City of Grandville in Kent County and the City of Coopersville, Crokckery Twp, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallmadge Twp, and Wright Twp in Ottawa County. Only Grandville is in the 3rd District.

St Rep 74th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Agema/Chase	36,207	13,421	1911	51,539	22786	70.25%	26.04%	44.21%
06 - Agema/Kauffman	30,495	12,109	880	43,484	18386	70.13%	27.85%	42.28%
04 - VanRegenmorter/Sloboda	38,380	12,009	719	51,108	26371	75.10%	23.50%	51.60%
02 - VanRegenmorter/Barringer	28,234	7,492	407	36,133	20742	78.14%	20.73%	57.40%

St Rep 73 - Covers Algoma Twp, Cannon Twp, City of Cedar Springs, Courtland Twp, Nelson Twp, Oakfield Twp, Plainfield Twp, City of Rockford, Solon Twp, Sparty Twp, Spencer Twp, and Tyrone Twp in Kent County. It's a district with strong GOP leanings, although the dems were high on Bruce Hawley in 08 looking for an upset. Tom Pearce was held to 59% and it opens up in 2010. This can be a darkhorse. Hawley took Tyrone Twp (which went for McCain) and Cedar Springs, and made it close in Sparta. Considering Pearce's old numbers, I don't think it was Pearce.

St Rep 73rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Pearce/Hawley	31,757	20,624	1516	53,897	11133	58.92%	38.27%	20.66%
06 - Pearce/Marckini	28,636	14,714	1010	44,360	13922	64.55%	33.17%	31.38%
04 - Pearce/Clowney	35,035	15,277	1179	51,491	19758	68.04%	29.67%	38.37%
02 - Hart/Clowney	24,370	9,845	628	34,843	14525	69.94%	28.26%	41.69%

St Rep 72nd - Covers Caledonia Twp, Cascade Twp, Gaines Twp, and Kentwood. Solidly GOP. Justin Amash won it despite barely winning Kentwood as an open seat. The townships are still safely GOP.

St Rep 72nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Amash/Abbasse	31,245	18,463	1559	51,267	12782	60.95%	36.01%	24.93%
06 - Steil Jr./Hinton	27,005	13,055	1091	41,151	13950	65.62%	31.72%	33.90%
04 - Steil Jr./Burke	33,283	14,594	765	48,642	18689	68.42%	30.00%	38.42%
02 - Steil Jr./Vogt	24,166	8,391	655	33,212	15775	72.76%	25.26%	47.50%

St Rep 70 - Covers Montcalm and Part of Ionia County - This should be a competitive seat. If the GOP is going to take back the state house, this is a good first target.

St Rep 70th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Ginster/Huckleberry	16,234	18,983		35,217	-2749	46.10%	53.90%	-7.81%
06 - Emmons/Mahar	18,382	10,704		29,086	7678	63.20%	36.80%	26.40%
04 - Emmons/Sanchez	22,774	11,732		34,506	11042	66.00%	34.00%	32.00%
02 - Emmons/Sanchez	14,610	7,588		22,198	7022	65.82%	34.18%	31.63%

This district should be safe as long as Ehlers is running for re-election.  After that, it depends on dynamics of the state and who the candidate is. If the GOP stops the bleeding in Kent County, we'll be fine. 08 was the perfect storm. Bush is unpopular, and stepped down. McCain's support among conservatives was lukewarm. McCain not only quit campaigning in Michigan, one of his staffers was a dumbass and announced it to the world ticking off independents. This was in 08. Today, Obama's popularity has gone down. Granholm is as popular as Bush was, and things are starting to level out, even in the Northeast. How that translates to Michigan 2010, we don't know.

What I mentioned in the 2nd District and Muskegon County applies here too. Stop the bleeding. If Kent returns to 2000 form, we have a chance to take the gubernatorial race. We need a good 60% here. If it's less than 55%, Cherry (or Dillon) wins.

Updated 5-18-2010 - There's a primary on both sides. Five way on the GOP side, and one on one with the dems. Three of the GOP candidates are fairly well known, although anything can happen in a five way race. Regardless of the result, we should keep this district.