Thursday, October 15, 2009

Part 1 - November 3rd Elections - 2009 (19th District, State Senate)

While most of the hype for 2009 is for the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, we have several important elections here in Michigan.

The first is the 19th State Senatorial District race. Unfortunately, my county/district profiles are severely out of date. This one is up for grabs.

The 19th District covers all of Calhoun County, which is slightly democrat leaning in most years, but was won by Bush in 2004. It voted for Gore, Granholm twice, and Obama. It has two state rep districts, one of which shared with Kalamazoo County. The shared district leans Republican, not overwhelmingly so. The other district leans democrat. It was Mark Schauer's district before it voted for Nofs. After it voted for Nofs, it voted for another democrat, Kate Segal, by a large margin.

Jackson County is more competitive and usually slightly republican leaning, but voted for Granholm once and Obama once. It did vote for Bush twice and Posthumus once. The state rep districts were Republican districts for awhile until the 2006 elections where Marty Griffin and Mike Simpson both won in Districts 64 and 65. Griffin is the former mayor of Jackson and the Current state rep in District 64.

Mike Nofs (R) and Marty Griffin (D) are facing off for this seat. Mike Nofs is from Battle Creek and has a knack of winning difficult races that Republicans have difficulty winning. So does Marty Griffin on the democrats side.

62nd District State Rep Results
2002:
62th District
Mike Nofs
Ted Dearing
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










City of Albion
744
1380
0
2124
-636
35.03%
64.97%
0
-29.94%
Albion Twp
253
156
0
409
97
61.86%
38.14%
0
23.72%
Athens Twp
538
316
0
854
222
63.00%
37.00%
0
26.00%
City of Battle Creek (99%)
6819
6937
0
13756
-118
49.57%
50.43%
0
-0.86%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
12
13
0
25
-1
48.00%
52.00%
0
-4.00%
Burlington Township
357
226
0
583
131
61.23%
38.77%
0
22.47%
Clarence Twp
456
244
0
700
212
65.14%
34.86%
0
30.29%
Clarendon Twp
204
90
0
294
114
69.39%
30.61%
0
38.78%
Convis Twp
398
162
0
560
236
71.07%
28.93%
0
42.14%
Eckford Twp
344
148
0
492
196
69.92%
30.08%
0
39.84%
Fredonia Twp
404
207
0
611
197
66.12%
33.88%
0
32.24%
Homer Twp
459
260
0
719
199
63.84%
36.16%
0
27.68%
Lee Twp
237
118
0
355
119
66.76%
33.24%
0
33.52%
Leroy Twp
794
504
0
1298
290
61.17%
38.83%
0
22.34%
Marengo Twp
469
235
0
704
234
66.62%
33.38%
0
33.24%
Sheridan Twp
326
247
0
573
79
56.89%
43.11%
0
13.79%
Springfield City
476
560
0
1036
-84
45.95%
54.05%
0
-8.11%
Tekonsha Twp
329
183
0
512
146
64.26%
35.74%
0
28.52%










TOTAL
13619
11986
0
25605
1633
53.19%
46.81%
0
6.38%


That's impressive in that district. Albion and Battle Creek are the two most democrat parts of the county, with Springfield right behind that. That was an open seat race, where they voted for Granholm and then voted for Nofs. The 2004 race was more impressive. Nofs won Battle Creek this time. Democrats can not win this district if they don't win Battle Creek by a large margin. Albion alone is not big enough for them to pull this off. 2004 was a good year for Bush in Calhoun County, and that may have helped.

62th District
Mike Nofs
Lynne Hayley
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










City of Albion
974
2033
0
3007
-1059
32.39%
67.61%
0
-35.22%
Albion Twp
344
248
0
592
96
58.11%
41.89%
0
16.22%
Athens Twp
839
443
0
1282
396
65.44%
34.56%
0
30.89%
City of Battle Creek (99%)
10917
10497
0
21414
420
50.98%
49.02%
0
1.96%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
24
16
0
40
8
60.00%
40.00%
0
20.00%
Burlington Township
507
359
0
866
148
58.55%
41.45%
0
17.09%
Clarence Twp
653
342
0
995
311
65.63%
34.37%
0
31.26%
Clarendon Twp
345
198
0
543
147
63.54%
36.46%
0
27.07%
Convis Twp
547
299
0
846
248
64.66%
35.34%
0
29.31%
Eckford Twp
467
224
0
691
243
67.58%
32.42%
0
35.17%
Fredonia Twp
544
351
0
895
193
60.78%
39.22%
0
21.56%
Homer Twp
697
505
0
1202
192
57.99%
42.01%
0
15.97%
Lee Twp
329
209
0
538
120
61.15%
38.85%
0
22.30%
Leroy Twp
1303
705
0
2008
598
64.89%
35.11%
0
29.78%
Marengo Twp
649
353
0
1002
296
64.77%
35.23%
0
29.54%
Sheridan Twp
449
356
0
805
93
55.78%
44.22%
0
11.55%
Springfield City
862
958
0
1820
-96
47.36%
52.64%
0
-5.27%
Tekonsha Twp
486
313
0
799
173
60.83%
39.17%
0
21.65%










TOTAL
20936
18409
0
39345
2527
53.21%
46.79%
0
6.42%

Then there's the democrat landslide year of 2006. Nofs survives a rematch with Lynne Haley, despite a disaster in most of the state among state reps. Most impressively, he won the City of Battle Creek once again. It's usually the townships if anything that make Republicans competitive in Calhoun County.

62th District
Mike Nofs
Lynne Hayley
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










City of Albion
695
1406
0
2101
-711
33.08%
66.92%
0
-33.84%
Albion Twp
291
200
0
491
91
59.27%
40.73%
0
18.53%
Athens Twp
586
320
0
906
266
64.68%
35.32%
0
29.36%
City of Battle Creek (99%)
8102
7432
0
15534
670
52.16%
47.84%
0
4.31%
Bedford Twp (1 precinct)
24
16
0
40
8
60.00%
40.00%
0
20.00%
Burlington Township
405
317
0
722
88
56.09%
43.91%
0
12.19%
Clarence Twp
516
316
0
832
200
62.02%
37.98%
0
24.04%
Clarendon Twp
268
162
0
430
106
62.33%
37.67%
0
24.65%
Convis Twp
380
261
0
641
119
59.28%
40.72%
0
18.56%
Eckford Twp
357
190
0
547
167
65.27%
34.73%
0
30.53%
Fredonia Twp
413
313
0
726
100
56.89%
43.11%
0
13.77%
Homer Twp
496
329
0
825
167
60.12%
39.88%
0
20.24%
Lee Twp
264
179
0
443
85
59.59%
40.41%
0
19.19%
Leroy Twp
1052
609
0
1661
443
63.34%
36.66%
0
26.67%
Marengo Twp
506
295
0
801
211
63.17%
36.83%
0
26.34%
Sheridan Twp
358
293
0
651
65
54.99%
45.01%
0
9.98%
Springfield City
572
649
0
1221
-77
46.85%
53.15%
0
-6.31%
Tekonsha Twp
364
252
0
616
112
59.09%
40.91%
0
18.18%










TOTAL
15649
13539
0
29188
2110
53.61%
46.39%
0
7.23%

Three wins. The other district in Calhoun County was and still is held by a Republican state rep. That's the one with Marshall and some of the more Southwestern townships. While one precinct in Battle Creek and all but one precinct of Bedford Township is in the other Calhoun district.

Now to Griffin's State Rep district. Griffin ran three times in this district. He lost in 2004 in a close battle where he ran well ahead of John Kerry who bombed badly in Jackson County. He came back and won twice. Griffin wan well even in some GOP leaning townships there, like Summit. 2004 was an Open Seat. 2006 was a rematch. 2008 was a trouncing.

64th District
Rick Baxter
Marty Griffin
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Concord Township
797
483
11
1291
314
61.74%
37.41%
0.85%
24.32%
Hanover Township
1158
719
17
1894
439
61.14%
37.96%
0.90%
23.18%
City of Jackson
4540
7497
137
12174
-2957
37.29%
61.58%
1.13%
-24.29%
Napoleon Township
1701
1544
15
3260
157
52.18%
47.36%
0.46%
4.82%
Parma Township
671
510
5
1186
161
56.58%
43.00%
0.42%
13.58%
Pulaski Township
636
334
3
973
302
65.36%
34.33%
0.31%
31.04%
Sandstone Township
1169
678
17
1864
491
62.71%
36.37%
0.91%
26.34%
Spring Arbor Township
2537
1204
42
3783
1333
67.06%
31.83%
1.11%
35.24%
Summit Township
5578
5460
251
11289
118
49.41%
48.37%
2.22%
1.05%










TOTAL
18787
18429
498
37714
358
49.81%
48.87%
1.32%
0.95%

Spring Arbor is the top GOP area by percentage, and Baxter was from the townships. Hanover, I believe. Maybe Parma. They rematched in 2006, where the State turned against the GOP in a big way. Griffin took advantage of both that, and his 2004 results which were a "moral victory" of sorts in the future. Summit and Napoleon Townships flipped, and Spring Arbor wasn't enough for Baxter. Too bad, since he's a good guy.

64th District
Rick Baxter
Marty Griffin
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Concord Township
665
409
0
1074
256
61.92%
38.08%
0.00%
23.84%
Hanover Township
829
711
0
1540
118
53.83%
46.17%
0.00%
7.66%
City of Jackson
3018
5703
0
8721
-2685
34.61%
65.39%
0.00%
-30.79%
Napoleon Township
1337
1359
0
2696
-22
49.59%
50.41%
0.00%
-0.82%
Parma Township
488
478
0
966
10
50.52%
49.48%
0.00%
1.04%
Pulaski Township
484
297
0
781
187
61.97%
38.03%
0.00%
23.94%
Sandstone Township
905
659
0
1564
246
57.86%
42.14%
0.00%
15.73%
Spring Arbor Township
1967
1161
0
3128
806
62.88%
37.12%
0.00%
25.77%
Summit Township
4485
4926
0
9411
-441
47.66%
52.34%
0.00%
-4.69%










TOTAL
14178
15703
0
29881
-1525
47.45%
52.55%
0.00%
-5.10%

And 2008 wasn't even close. Leland Prebble was thrown to the wolves and didn't get the support he needed to give Griffin the tough race he needed.

64th District
Leland Prebble
Marty Griffin
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Concord Township
676
661
0
1337
15
50.56%
49.44%
0.00%
1.12%
Hanover Township
878
991
0
1869
-113
46.98%
53.02%
0.00%
-6.05%
City of Jackson
2994
9725
0
12719
-6731
23.54%
76.46%
0.00%
-52.92%
Napoleon Township
1249
2045
0
3294
-796
37.92%
62.08%
0.00%
-24.17%
Parma Township
538
662
0
1200
-124
44.83%
55.17%
0.00%
-10.33%
Pulaski Township
506
438
0
944
68
53.60%
46.40%
0.00%
7.20%
Sandstone Township
970
951
0
1921
19
50.49%
49.51%
0.00%
0.99%
Spring Arbor Township
2154
1604
0
3758
550
57.32%
42.68%
0.00%
14.64%
Summit Township
4489
7183
0
11672
-2694
38.46%
61.54%
0.00%
-23.08%










TOTAL
14454
24260
0
38714
-9806
37.34%
62.66%
0.00%
-25.33%

That's the election history of those two strong candidates in their state rep districts. Mark Schauer, from Battle Creek, left the 19th Vacant. He ran against Mickey Mortimer in the 19th in 2002 in a race that should have been more competitive than it was. Mortimer, a state rep from Jackson County, won the portion of Jackson County in the district, but lost bad in Calhoun County. For the State Senate District, 2002 was a competitive attempt, but a big win by Schauer. In 2006, in a very, very, very, poor move from the GOP to not challenge Schauer. Fulton was thrown to the wolves. It was not secret that Schauer wanted to go to Congress. He should have been hit hard in 06, and also recalled in 07/08 for his tax increase vote. That didn't happen, and he beat Walberg narrowly.

The 19th has ALL of Calhoun County, but NOT all of Jackson County. It does not contain Grass Lake Township, Leoni Township, Norvell Township, and Summit Township. That favors Nofs. Griffin ran well in Summit Township, and Leoni Township is a swing township at the top of the ticket which hurts Griffin since he's a near homer there. Here's the 2002 results.

19th District
Mickey Mortimer
Mark Schauer
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
551
1575
0
2126
-1024
25.92%
74.08%
0.00%
-48.17%
Albion Township
185
225
0
410
-40
45.12%
54.88%
0.00%
-9.76%
City of Battle Creek
4709
9048
0
13757
-4339
34.23%
65.77%
0.00%
-31.54%
Bedford Township
1062
1953
0
3015
-891
35.22%
64.78%
0.00%
-29.55%
Burlington Township
263
319
0
582
-56
45.19%
54.81%
0.00%
-9.62%
Clarence Township
403
305
0
708
98
56.92%
43.08%
0.00%
13.84%
Clarendon Township
173
125
0
298
48
58.05%
41.95%
0.00%
16.11%
Convis Township
291
270
0
561
21
51.87%
48.13%
0.00%
3.74%
Eckford Township
274
217
0
491
57
55.80%
44.20%
0.00%
11.61%
Emmett Township
1467
2257
0
3724
-790
39.39%
60.61%
0.00%
-21.21%
Fredonia Township
276
333
0
609
-57
45.32%
54.68%
0.00%
-9.36%
Homer Township
382
335
0
717
47
53.28%
46.72%
0.00%
6.56%
Lee Township
188
168
0
356
20
52.81%
47.19%
0.00%
5.62%
Leroy Township
595
697
0
1292
-102
46.05%
53.95%
0.00%
-7.89%
Marengo Township
345
360
0
705
-15
48.94%
51.06%
0.00%
-2.13%
City of Marshall
1025
1498
0
2523
-473
40.63%
59.37%
0.00%
-18.75%
Marshall Township
593
641
0
1234
-48
48.06%
51.94%
0.00%
-3.89%
Newton Township
422
616
0
1038
-194
40.66%
59.34%
0.00%
-18.69%
Pennfield Township
1244
1822
0
3066
-578
40.57%
59.43%
0.00%
-18.85%
Sheridan Township
261
315
0
576
-54
45.31%
54.69%
0.00%
-9.38%
Springfield City
318
719
0
1037
-401
30.67%
69.33%
0.00%
-38.67%
Tekonsha Township
224
288
0
512
-64
43.75%
56.25%
0.00%
-12.50%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
2472
2557
0
5029
-85
49.15%
50.85%
0.00%
-1.69%
Columbia Township
1596
1167
0
2763
429
57.76%
42.24%
0.00%
15.53%
Concord Township
495
348
0
843
147
58.72%
41.28%
0.00%
17.44%
Hanover Township
771
500
0
1271
271
60.66%
39.34%
0.00%
21.32%
Henrietta Township
702
715
0
1417
-13
49.54%
50.46%
0.00%
-0.92%
City of Jackson
3106
4501
0
7607
-1395
40.83%
59.17%
0.00%
-18.34%
Liberty Township
704
482
0
1186
222
59.36%
40.64%
0.00%
18.72%
Napoleon Township
1178
1075
0
2253
103
52.29%
47.71%
0.00%
4.57%
Parma Township
441
440
0
881
1
50.06%
49.94%
0.00%
0.11%
Pulaski Township
394
256
0
650
138
60.62%
39.38%
0.00%
21.23%
Rives Township
881
707
0
1588
174
55.48%
44.52%
0.00%
10.96%
Sandstone Township
780
500
0
1280
280
60.94%
39.06%
0.00%
21.88%
Spring Arbor Township
1848
803
0
2651
1045
69.71%
30.29%
0.00%
39.42%
Springport Township
325
267
0
592
58
54.90%
45.10%
0.00%
9.80%
Tompkins Township
446
386
0
832
60
53.61%
46.39%
0.00%
7.21%
Waterloo Township
469
455
0
924
14
50.76%
49.24%
0.00%
1.52%










TOTAL
31859
39245
0
71104
-7386
44.81%
55.19%
0.00%
-10.39%


Calhoun County is democrat, but it's not THAT democrat. Not 61%. Even Obama couldn't do what Schauer did, and 2002 was a good Republican year in Michigan outside of the governor's race and US Senate race. Congress, AG, Sec of State, State House and State Senate were all positive that year. 2006 was a disaster all around. Don't blame Fulton. She was thrown to the wolves. Here's 2006. (I missed Athens Township from 02 in the Mortimer Race).

19th District
Elizabeth Fulton
Mark Schauer
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
420
1691
0
2111
-1271
19.90%
80.10%
0.00%
-60.21%
Albion Township
198
291
0
489
-93
40.49%
59.51%
0.00%
-19.02%
Athens Township
420
489
0
909
-69
46.20%
53.80%
0.00%
-7.59%
City of Battle Creek
4848
10848
0
15696
-6000
30.89%
69.11%
0.00%
-38.23%
Bedford Township
1178
2323
0
3501
-1145
33.65%
66.35%
0.00%
-32.70%
Burlington Township
288
421
0
709
-133
40.62%
59.38%
0.00%
-18.76%
Clarence Township
387
441
0
828
-54
46.74%
53.26%
0.00%
-6.52%
Clarendon Township
191
237
0
428
-46
44.63%
55.37%
0.00%
-10.75%
Convis Township
279
353
0
632
-74
44.15%
55.85%
0.00%
-11.71%
Eckford Township
260
283
0
543
-23
47.88%
52.12%
0.00%
-4.24%
Emmett Township
1455
2728
0
4183
-1273
34.78%
65.22%
0.00%
-30.43%
Fredonia Township
283
438
0
721
-155
39.25%
60.75%
0.00%
-21.50%
Homer Township
391
439
0
830
-48
47.11%
52.89%
0.00%
-5.78%
Lee Township
193
244
0
437
-51
44.16%
55.84%
0.00%
-11.67%
Leroy Township
736
935
0
1671
-199
44.05%
55.95%
0.00%
-11.91%
Marengo Township
333
467
0
800
-134
41.63%
58.38%
0.00%
-16.75%
City of Marshall
1011
1915
0
2926
-904
34.55%
65.45%
0.00%
-30.90%
Marshall Township
619
892
0
1511
-273
40.97%
59.03%
0.00%
-18.07%
Newton Township
446
778
0
1224
-332
36.44%
63.56%
0.00%
-27.12%
Pennfield Township
1268
2162
0
3430
-894
36.97%
63.03%
0.00%
-26.06%
Sheridan Township
233
424
0
657
-191
35.46%
64.54%
0.00%
-29.07%
Springfield City
334
887
0
1221
-553
27.35%
72.65%
0.00%
-45.29%
Tekonsha Township
209
406
0
615
-197
33.98%
66.02%
0.00%
-32.03%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
2406
3258
0
5664
-852
42.48%
57.52%
0.00%
-15.04%
Columbia Township
1589
1770
0
3359
-181
47.31%
52.69%
0.00%
-5.39%
Concord Township
534
505
0
1039
29
51.40%
48.60%
0.00%
2.79%
Hanover Township
689
803
0
1492
-114
46.18%
53.82%
0.00%
-7.64%
Henrietta Township
733
966
0
1699
-233
43.14%
56.86%
0.00%
-13.71%
City of Jackson
2749
5792
0
8541
-3043
32.19%
67.81%
0.00%
-35.63%
Liberty Township
692
630
0
1322
62
52.34%
47.66%
0.00%
4.69%
Napoleon Township
1099
1522
0
2621
-423
41.93%
58.07%
0.00%
-16.14%
Parma Township
418
526
0
944
-108
44.28%
55.72%
0.00%
-11.44%
Pulaski Township
439
319
0
758
120
57.92%
42.08%
0.00%
15.83%
Rives Township
929
855
0
1784
74
52.07%
47.93%
0.00%
4.15%
Sandstone Township
801
705
0
1506
96
53.19%
46.81%
0.00%
6.37%
Spring Arbor Township
1752
1287
0
3039
465
57.65%
42.35%
0.00%
15.30%
Springport Township
354
390
0
744
-36
47.58%
52.42%
0.00%
-4.84%
Tompkins Township
454
544
0
998
-90
45.49%
54.51%
0.00%
-9.02%
Waterloo Township
450
648
0
1098
-198
40.98%
59.02%
0.00%
-18.03%










TOTAL
32068
50612
0
82680
-18544
38.79%
61.21%
0.00%
-22.43%

Those are the state rep and state senate races relevant to the district. For comparison's sake, I'll show the gubernatorial and presidential numbers as well. Here's 2000.

19th District
George W Bush
Al Gore
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
784
2022
65
2871
-1238
27.31%
70.43%
2.26%
-43.12%
Albion Township
291
222
23
536
69
54.29%
41.42%
4.29%
12.87%
Athens Township
636
442
28
1106
194
57.50%
39.96%
2.53%
17.54%
City of Battle Creek
8517
10235
481
19233
-1718
44.28%
53.22%
2.50%
-8.93%
Bedford Township
1905
2233
111
4249
-328
44.83%
52.55%
2.61%
-7.72%
Burlington Township
426
311
24
761
115
55.98%
40.87%
3.15%
15.11%
Clarence Township
550
377
32
959
173
57.35%
39.31%
3.34%
18.04%
Clarendon Township
252
176
6
434
76
58.06%
40.55%
1.38%
17.51%
Convis Township
453
266
21
740
187
61.22%
35.95%
2.84%
25.27%
Eckford Township
381
256
7
644
125
59.16%
39.75%
1.09%
19.41%
Emmett Township
2518
2339
130
4987
179
50.49%
46.90%
2.61%
3.59%
Fredonia Township
418
337
28
783
81
53.38%
43.04%
3.58%
10.34%
Homer Township
487
447
29
963
40
50.57%
46.42%
3.01%
4.15%
Lee Township
291
192
14
497
99
58.55%
38.63%
2.82%
19.92%
Leroy Township
927
697
42
1666
230
55.64%
41.84%
2.52%
13.81%
Marengo Township
546
365
29
940
181
58.09%
38.83%
3.09%
19.26%
City of Marshall
1704
1605
132
3441
99
49.52%
46.64%
3.84%
2.88%
Marshall Township
906
681
37
1624
225
55.79%
41.93%
2.28%
13.85%
Newton Township
735
609
35
1379
126
53.30%
44.16%
2.54%
9.14%
Pennfield Township
2202
1874
111
4187
328
52.59%
44.76%
2.65%
7.83%
Sheridan Township
365
362
24
751
3
48.60%
48.20%
3.20%
0.40%
Springfield City
646
926
49
1621
-280
39.85%
57.13%
3.02%
-17.27%
Tekonsha Township
349
338
16
703
11
49.64%
48.08%
2.28%
1.56%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
3249
3202
144
6595
47
49.26%
48.55%
2.18%
0.71%
Columbia Township
2077
1541
113
3731
536
55.67%
41.30%
3.03%
14.37%
Concord Township
713
421
37
1171
292
60.89%
35.95%
3.16%
24.94%
Hanover Township
980
665
30
1675
315
58.51%
39.70%
1.79%
18.81%
Henrietta Township
927
798
52
1777
129
52.17%
44.91%
2.93%
7.26%
City of Jackson
4259
6431
310
11000
-2172
38.72%
58.46%
2.82%
-19.75%
Liberty Township
845
546
37
1428
299
59.17%
38.24%
2.59%
20.94%
Napoleon Township
1521
1477
87
3085
44
49.30%
47.88%
2.82%
1.43%
Parma Township
586
497
50
1133
89
51.72%
43.87%
4.41%
7.86%
Pulaski Township
473
313
27
813
160
58.18%
38.50%
3.32%
19.68%
Rives Township
1229
802
43
2074
427
59.26%
38.67%
2.07%
20.59%
Sandstone Township
1023
576
35
1634
447
62.61%
35.25%
2.14%
27.36%
Spring Arbor Township
2262
1032
64
3358
1230
67.36%
30.73%
1.91%
36.63%
Springport Township
441
330
29
800
111
55.13%
41.25%
3.63%
13.88%
Tompkins Township
652
485
19
1156
167
56.40%
41.96%
1.64%
14.45%
Waterloo Township
598
561
51
1210
37
49.42%
46.36%
4.21%
3.06%










TOTAL
48124
46989
2602
97715
1135
49.25%
48.09%
2.66%
1.16%

Al Gore won Calhoun by 1000 votes. Bush beat Gore in Jackson County (as a whole) by 4000 votes. However, Summit Township, where Griffin did so well, also went for Bush by 1700 votes in 2000. Is that township not being in this district a Griffin or a GOP advantage in 2009? I don't know. Leoni went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, but Grass Lake and Norvell Townships went for Bush twice. From a party-only standpoint, Removing those four township hurt the GOP. From a geographic standpoint, just the opposite as they helped Griffin. In the gubenatorial race of 02, here's Posthumus vs Granholm. Schauer and Nofs also were on the ballot here. Griffin was not on the ballot.

19th District
Dick Posthumus
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
612
1502
30
2144
-890
28.54%
70.06%
1.40%
-41.51%
Albion Township
228
185
7
420
43
54.29%
44.05%
1.67%
10.24%
Athens Township
474
376
9
859
98
55.18%
43.77%
1.05%
11.41%
City of Battle Creek
5843
7812
146
13801
-1969
42.34%
56.60%
1.06%
-14.27%
Bedford Township
1325
1671
26
3022
-346
43.85%
55.29%
0.86%
-11.45%
Burlington Township
322
262
5
589
60
54.67%
44.48%
0.85%
10.19%
Clarence Township
427
288
5
720
139
59.31%
40.00%
0.69%
19.31%
Clarendon Township
187
115
1
303
72
61.72%
37.95%
0.33%
23.76%
Convis Township
318
245
3
566
73
56.18%
43.29%
0.53%
12.90%
Eckford Township
307
191
5
503
116
61.03%
37.97%
0.99%
23.06%
Emmett Township
1813
1903
41
3757
-90
48.26%
50.65%
1.09%
-2.40%
Fredonia Township
323
288
6
617
35
52.35%
46.68%
0.97%
5.67%
Homer Township
386
337
9
732
49
52.73%
46.04%
1.23%
6.69%
Lee Township
215
141
4
360
74
59.72%
39.17%
1.11%
20.56%
Leroy Township
707
591
11
1309
116
54.01%
45.15%
0.84%
8.86%
Marengo Township
403
302
5
710
101
56.76%
42.54%
0.70%
14.23%
City of Marshall
1243
1296
29
2568
-53
48.40%
50.47%
1.13%
-2.06%
Marshall Township
666
571
7
1244
95
53.54%
45.90%
0.56%
7.64%
Newton Township
536
514
6
1056
22
50.76%
48.67%
0.57%
2.08%
Pennfield Township
1523
1522
33
3078
1
49.48%
49.45%
1.07%
0.03%
Sheridan Township
286
292
7
585
-6
48.89%
49.91%
1.20%
-1.03%
Springfield City
389
641
9
1039
-252
37.44%
61.69%
0.87%
-24.25%
Tekonsha Township
256
253
6
515
3
49.71%
49.13%
1.17%
0.58%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
2446
2611
57
5114
-165
47.83%
51.06%
1.11%
-3.23%
Columbia Township
1570
1242
32
2844
328
55.20%
43.67%
1.13%
11.53%
Concord Township
513
354
10
877
159
58.49%
40.36%
1.14%
18.13%
Hanover Township
750
533
8
1291
217
58.09%
41.29%
0.62%
16.81%
Henrietta Township
734
682
22
1438
52
51.04%
47.43%
1.53%
3.62%
City of Jackson
3061
4540
115
7716
-1479
39.67%
58.84%
1.49%
-19.17%
Liberty Township
694
491
15
1200
203
57.83%
40.92%
1.25%
16.92%
Napoleon Township
1114
1151
42
2307
-37
48.29%
49.89%
1.82%
-1.60%
Parma Township
473
414
16
903
59
52.38%
45.85%
1.77%
6.53%
Pulaski Township
388
257
10
655
131
59.24%
39.24%
1.53%
20.00%
Rives Township
969
628
24
1621
341
59.78%
38.74%
1.48%
21.04%
Sandstone Township
771
509
14
1294
262
59.58%
39.34%
1.08%
20.25%
Spring Arbor Township
1776
888
21
2685
888
66.15%
33.07%
0.78%
33.07%
Springport Township
355
242
6
603
113
58.87%
40.13%
1.00%
18.74%
Tompkins Township
481
355
16
852
126
56.46%
41.67%
1.88%
14.79%
Waterloo Township
500
431
21
952
69
52.52%
45.27%
2.21%
7.25%










TOTAL
35384
36626
839
72849
-1242
48.57%
50.28%
1.15%
-1.70%

Granholm won the district in 2002, even though Posthumus ran better overall in the state than Bush. I think the big reason is state workers. Jackson has or had at least a large number of people working in the prison system. A lot of commuters as well live in the district. Calhoun County is straight down I-69 from Lansing. Jackson is straight down US-127. Don't forget the teachers and MEA. Even some of the social conservatives will go democrat in state races because of funding. This district remains close for the most part, but this district was more pro-Bush than it normally would be for a Republican in 2004. This is the high point for the GOP in this district. Bush actually won Calhoun County by 2200 votes , as well as Jackson County (all of it) by 9000 votes (2300 in Summit township, which Griffin barely lost that year). Bush didn't hurt Nofs, and he probably beat Griffin, who wasn't an unknown then as he was Jackson's mayor.
19th District
Bush
Kerry
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
898
2174
31
3103
-1276
28.94%
70.06%
1.00%
-41.12%
Albion Township
336
265
8
609
71
55.17%
43.51%
1.31%
11.66%
Athens Township
784
499
9
1292
285
60.68%
38.62%
0.70%
22.06%
City of Battle Creek
10314
11583
241
22138
-1269
46.59%
52.32%
1.09%
-5.73%
Bedford Township
2262
2264
53
4579
-2
49.40%
49.44%
1.16%
-0.04%
Burlington Township
494
389
14
897
105
55.07%
43.37%
1.56%
11.71%
Clarence Township
640
376
12
1028
264
62.26%
36.58%
1.17%
25.68%
Clarendon Township
335
221
5
561
114
59.71%
39.39%
0.89%
20.32%
Convis Township
500
355
19
874
145
57.21%
40.62%
2.17%
16.59%
Eckford Township
460
255
6
721
205
63.80%
35.37%
0.83%
28.43%
Emmett Township
3171
2508
56
5735
663
55.29%
43.73%
0.98%
11.56%
Fredonia Township
532
372
16
920
160
57.83%
40.43%
1.74%
17.39%
Homer Township
653
474
11
1138
179
57.38%
41.65%
0.97%
15.73%
Lee Township
339
214
5
558
125
60.75%
38.35%
0.90%
22.40%
Leroy Township
1297
773
11
2081
524
62.33%
37.15%
0.53%
25.18%
Marengo Township
642
380
12
1034
262
62.09%
36.75%
1.16%
25.34%
City of Marshall
2012
1713
36
3761
299
53.50%
45.55%
0.96%
7.95%
Marshall Township
1098
723
17
1838
375
59.74%
39.34%
0.92%
20.40%
Newton Township
889
621
14
1524
268
58.33%
40.75%
0.92%
17.59%
Pennfield Township
2680
1969
64
4713
711
56.86%
41.78%
1.36%
15.09%
Sheridan Township
428
394
14
836
34
51.20%
47.13%
1.67%
4.07%
Springfield City
877
1005
18
1900
-128
46.16%
52.89%
0.95%
-6.74%
Tekonsha Township
454
364
12
830
90
54.70%
43.86%
1.45%
10.84%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
4258
3454
73
7785
804
54.69%
44.37%
0.94%
10.33%
Columbia Township
2532
1693
36
4261
839
59.42%
39.73%
0.84%
19.69%
Concord Township
843
483
18
1344
360
62.72%
35.94%
1.34%
26.79%
Hanover Township
1199
745
16
1960
454
61.17%
38.01%
0.82%
23.16%
Henrietta Township
1196
952
24
2172
244
55.06%
43.83%
1.10%
11.23%
City of Jackson
5257
7142
138
12537
-1885
41.93%
56.97%
1.10%
-15.04%
Liberty Township
1106
610
11
1727
496
64.04%
35.32%
0.64%
28.72%
Napoleon Township
1893
1494
35
3422
399
55.32%
43.66%
1.02%
11.66%
Parma Township
714
523
11
1248
191
57.21%
41.91%
0.88%
15.30%
Pulaski Township
635
363
14
1012
272
62.75%
35.87%
1.38%
26.88%
Rives Township
1464
809
28
2301
655
63.62%
35.16%
1.22%
28.47%
Sandstone Township
1293
626
20
1939
667
66.68%
32.28%
1.03%
34.40%
Spring Arbor Township
2763
1105
36
3904
1658
70.77%
28.30%
0.92%
42.47%
Springport Township
577
332
15
924
245
62.45%
35.93%
1.62%
26.52%
Tompkins Township
772
537
8
1317
235
58.62%
40.77%
0.61%
17.84%
Waterloo Township
771
701
13
1485
70
51.92%
47.21%
0.88%
4.71%










TOTAL
59368
51460
1180
112008
7908
53.00%
45.94%
1.05%
7.06%

53% is damn good in this district, and that was by both narrowing the gap in Battle Creek, Springfield, and Jackson, and also racking up numbers in the townships. 2006 was ugly, as was 2008. Dick DeVos was wrongly painted as an outsourcer of jobs, but there was Bush fatigue and ugly corruption with many in leadership. 2008 was no different, with McCain quitting. This is a populist district, and while it is conservative, it is not republican by any stretch of the imagination. That's particular true in the townships. Here's 2006.

19th District
DeVos
Granholm
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
539
1606
26
2171
-1067
24.83%
73.98%
1.20%
-49.15%
Albion Township
245
256
6
507
-11
48.32%
50.49%
1.18%
-2.17%
Athens Township
459
467
8
934
-8
49.14%
50.00%
0.86%
-0.86%
City of Battle Creek
6069
9580
239
15888
-3511
38.20%
60.30%
1.50%
-22.10%
Bedford Township
1447
2057
54
3558
-610
40.67%
57.81%
1.52%
-17.14%
Burlington Township
324
395
12
731
-71
44.32%
54.04%
1.64%
-9.71%
Clarence Township
445
405
13
863
40
51.56%
46.93%
1.51%
4.63%
Clarendon Township
215
222
4
441
-7
48.75%
50.34%
0.91%
-1.59%
Convis Township
312
327
15
654
-15
47.71%
50.00%
2.29%
-2.29%
Eckford Township
300
269
3
572
31
52.45%
47.03%
0.52%
5.42%
Emmett Township
1866
2334
55
4255
-468
43.85%
54.85%
1.29%
-11.00%
Fredonia Township
311
422
10
743
-111
41.86%
56.80%
1.35%
-14.94%
Homer Township
423
428
13
864
-5
48.96%
49.54%
1.50%
-0.58%
Lee Township
249
204
8
461
45
54.01%
44.25%
1.74%
9.76%
Leroy Township
873
820
22
1715
53
50.90%
47.81%
1.28%
3.09%
Marengo Township
420
390
16
826
30
50.85%
47.22%
1.94%
3.63%
City of Marshall
1299
1676
54
3029
-377
42.89%
55.33%
1.78%
-12.45%
Marshall Township
751
789
18
1558
-38
48.20%
50.64%
1.16%
-2.44%
Newton Township
565
666
14
1245
-101
45.38%
53.49%
1.12%
-8.11%
Pennfield Township
1569
1875
55
3499
-306
44.84%
53.59%
1.57%
-8.75%
Sheridan Township
296
365
13
674
-69
43.92%
54.15%
1.93%
-10.24%
Springfield City
461
761
23
1245
-300
37.03%
61.12%
1.85%
-24.10%
Tekonsha Township
267
360
12
639
-93
41.78%
56.34%
1.88%
-14.55%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
2772
3087
71
5930
-315
46.75%
52.06%
1.20%
-5.31%
Columbia Township
1843
1659
48
3550
184
51.92%
46.73%
1.35%
5.18%
Concord Township
598
492
17
1107
106
54.02%
44.44%
1.54%
9.58%
Hanover Township
819
721
28
1568
98
52.23%
45.98%
1.79%
6.25%
Henrietta Township
829
928
34
1791
-99
46.29%
51.81%
1.90%
-5.53%
City of Jackson
3370
5381
142
8893
-2011
37.89%
60.51%
1.60%
-22.61%
Liberty Township
788
604
15
1407
184
56.01%
42.93%
1.07%
13.08%
Napoleon Township
1319
1437
51
2807
-118
46.99%
51.19%
1.82%
-4.20%
Parma Township
468
504
26
998
-36
46.89%
50.50%
2.61%
-3.61%
Pulaski Township
451
341
11
803
110
56.16%
42.47%
1.37%
13.70%
Rives Township
1039
849
27
1915
190
54.26%
44.33%
1.41%
9.92%
Sandstone Township
924
662
22
1608
262
57.46%
41.17%
1.37%
16.29%
Spring Arbor Township
1992
1154
29
3175
838
62.74%
36.35%
0.91%
26.39%
Springport Township
422
352
20
794
70
53.15%
44.33%
2.52%
8.82%
Tompkins Township
523
523
23
1069
0
48.92%
48.92%
2.15%
0.00%
Waterloo Township
511
633
19
1163
-122
43.94%
54.43%
1.63%
-10.49%










TOTAL
38373
46001
1276
85650
-7628
44.80%
53.71%
1.49%
-8.91%

That was bad, and so is 2008. Keep in mind that DeVos and McCain both won Summit Township which is in a different district, but was one of Griffin's stronger areas. Here's 08. Not quite as bad as 06, but close. 08 was more high democrat because of Albion, Battle Creek, and Jackson City which has more minorities. It wasn't AS across the board as 06, but McCain won many of those areas which Bush won big by lower margins. Bush won Marshall twice, which is a key area here. Nofs did not represent Marshall as a state rep. Griffin can win if he wins that area. Here's 08.

19th District
McCain
Obama
3rd Party
Total
Difference
GOP%
Dem%
3rd%
Diff










Calhoun County:









City of Albion
719
2584
39
3342
-1865
21.51%
77.32%
1.17%
-55.80%
Albion Township
301
283
6
590
18
51.02%
47.97%
1.02%
3.05%
Athens Township
660
564
33
1257
96
52.51%
44.87%
2.63%
7.64%
City of Battle Creek
8916
13975
321
23212
-5059
38.41%
60.21%
1.38%
-21.79%
Bedford Township
2128
2583
85
4796
-455
44.37%
53.86%
1.77%
-9.49%
Burlington Township
488
398
21
907
90
53.80%
43.88%
2.32%
9.92%
Clarence Township
547
439
18
1004
108
54.48%
43.73%
1.79%
10.76%
Clarendon Township
315
231
14
560
84
56.25%
41.25%
2.50%
15.00%
Convis Township
439
357
21
817
82
53.73%
43.70%
2.57%
10.04%
Eckford Township
452
263
15
730
189
61.92%
36.03%
2.05%
25.89%
Emmett Township
2848
2840
91
5779
8
49.28%
49.14%
1.57%
0.14%
Fredonia Township
471
392
23
886
79
53.16%
44.24%
2.60%
8.92%
Homer Township
516
561
28
1105
-45
46.70%
50.77%
2.53%
-4.07%
Lee Township
300
220
15
535
80
56.07%
41.12%
2.80%
14.95%
Leroy Township
1289
885
30
2204
404
58.48%
40.15%
1.36%
18.33%
Marengo Township
581
463
22
1066
118
54.50%
43.43%
2.06%
11.07%
City of Marshall
1733
1931
62
3726
-198
46.51%
51.83%
1.66%
-5.31%
Marshall Township
1074
807
34
1915
267
56.08%
42.14%
1.78%
13.94%
Newton Township
886
647
29
1562
239
56.72%
41.42%
1.86%
15.30%
Pennfield Township
2405
2218
92
4715
187
51.01%
47.04%
1.95%
3.97%
Sheridan Township
412
390
27
829
22
49.70%
47.04%
3.26%
2.65%
Springfield City
689
1132
29
1850
-443
37.24%
61.19%
1.57%
-23.95%
Tekonsha Township
357
398
26
781
-41
45.71%
50.96%
3.33%
-5.25%
Jackson County:









Blackman Township
3646
4204
136
7986
-558
45.65%
52.64%
1.70%
-6.99%
Columbia Township
2265
2011
72
4348
254
52.09%
46.25%
1.66%
5.84%
Concord Township
758
633
20
1411
125
53.72%
44.86%
1.42%
8.86%
Hanover Township
1096
843
27
1966
253
55.75%
42.88%
1.37%
12.87%
Henrietta Township
1161
1153
46
2360
8
49.19%
48.86%
1.95%
0.34%
City of Jackson
4162
8856
207
13225
-4694
31.47%
66.96%
1.57%
-35.49%
Liberty Township
1015
713
31
1759
302
57.70%
40.53%
1.76%
17.17%
Napoleon Township
1733
1712
69
3514
21
49.32%
48.72%
1.96%
0.60%
Parma Township
629
618
27
1274
11
49.37%
48.51%
2.12%
0.86%
Pulaski Township
579
405
20
1004
174
57.67%
40.34%
1.99%
17.33%
Rives Township
1317
1005
58
2380
312
55.34%
42.23%
2.44%
13.11%
Sandstone Township
1203
782
49
2034
421
59.14%
38.45%
2.41%
20.70%
Spring Arbor Township
2460
1418
49
3927
1042
62.64%
36.11%
1.25%
26.53%
Springport Township
551
425
28
1004
126
54.88%
42.33%
2.79%
12.55%
Tompkins Township
710
631
39
1380
79
51.45%
45.72%
2.83%
5.72%
Waterloo Township
650
787
23
1460
-137
44.52%
53.90%
1.58%
-9.38%










TOTAL
52461
60757
1982
115200
-8296
45.54%
52.74%
1.72%
-7.20%

2008 is almost a reverse of 2004 Bush by percentage. It wasn't quite the low watermark of 2006, but it damn well close. That's why this special election is so important. This district mirrors much of America. You have industrial cities (Battle Creek, Jackson, Albion). You have a swing small town in middle America (Marshall). You have a conservative college anchoring Spring Arbor. You have a liberal college in Albion. You have a sizable minority population in Albion, Jackson, and Battle Creek. There are a lot of rural areas as well. None of the areas outside of Albion are uber-democrat. None of the areas outside of Spring Arbor are sizable and uber-Republican. It's a populist district and leans right on social issues, but centrist to slightly left of center on economic issues. It does not trust big business. It doesn't trust the federal government much either, but state government is a different story. Lansing isn't far from here.

It will be a very interesting race, and while Virginia and New Jersey have the hype, this is one to watch as well. The 19th District mirrors America well, and its performance in this special election will turn some heads, no matter who wins.

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