In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

I thought attorneys were supposed to be able to read.

This got forwarded to me. Shari Pollesch, Joe Hune's opponent sent this out.

Dear Supporter,

 

So, according to today's Livingston County Press & Argus, Senator Hune believes that the report about my fundraising success is going to cause funds to pour into his campaign from grassroots supporters. And, if you review the comments on line, Dan Wholihan, Chair for the Livingston County Republicans is predicting that Senator Hune will beat me in November "75-25%".  That is not what I am hearing at the doors and that is not what our grassroots fundraising so far has suggested. 

 -----------------------------------------------------

This was my quote.  

Shari Pollesch is raising money, but it's not the be-all and end-all of a campaign. Garry Post actually outraised Cindy Denby by 10K in 2010, but was demolished 67-29%. Joe is the type of person who doesn't take a race for granted. If he thinks it won't be a 75-25 win, he'll be working hard in the campaign as he already is.  

How the Hell do you get a 75-25 prediction out of my state? What makes Joe Hune a strong candidate is that his opponents never outwork him. If Shari works hard, Joe's going to work harder. That's how he is. He's already working on his campaign (and for Vaupel's at the same time). 

If Shari's lying about what I said in the comment section which is public, what else is she lying about?

Skubick column on Joe Hune

Interesting column from Tim Skubick

From Mlive

When state Sen. Joe Hune stepped off the plane from a European vacation, he did not scramble for the phones to consult with his campaign team. Instead he immediately went to the side of a rare male albino two-humped camel that was born while he was gone and was struggling to stay alive.
That was a clear indication this guy was not running for Congress, although having a camel raiser in the U.S. House with Michigan’s former reindeer herder Congressman would have made headlines.

I've known Joe Hune since he ran for the then brand new 47th district back in 2002. At 22, he won a race he had no business (on paper) winning by taking his farm work ethic and strong organization,  and applying it to the campaign. It was a grassroots farmer and Fowlerville based victory.

I wasn't sure he was going to run or not. I've heard rumors of both, by good sources. The official word until the news came out was that there was no decision and that the rest of speculation.

It's well known that Joe's not a DC guy, which is why I think he would have done a great job there. He would have given DC a dose of much needed Fowlerville common sense, particularly on spending. Joe treats our tax money and our company time like he treats his own time. He doesn't like to waste it. As a constituent, I hoped he'd run. I also respect his decision to stay where he is. It wouldn't be me paying the price of the job in DC.

It would be a real high price if he ran. While I think he would have won the primary (no offense to Mike Bishop, Tom McMillin and Bryan Barnett, but they are all from the same area and a geographic mismatch to Hune) and the general (Hune wins independents and keeps the base), it still was not a sure thing. He's also be running every two years. While nothing is an absolute sure thing, Joe's the winner barring a disaster in the 22nd for re-election. His opponent will not catch him sleeping on the election. He'd give up a four year term if ran for Congress. He and his wife would leave home and the farm to go to DC if he won. DC politics is a nasty business and getting nastier.

Best of luck to Joe in re-election. As far as the 8th District goes, I'm keeping my powder dry for now and want to hear more from the candidates and refresh my research on their voting records and statements when they weren't dealing with a re-election. I also want to see who places an emphasis on Livingston County. While we're the 3rd most GOP county in the state by percentage, and 2nd among counties over 100,000 people, we're sometimes still viewed as a shadow of our surrounding counties. With three Rochester area candidates, we could very well choose the winner. 


 

Joe Hune running for State Senate, not Congress

From the Argus

State Sen. Joe Hune, R-Hamburg Township, will not seek the GOP nomination to succeed U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, in Congress, Hune announced today.
Hune said he will instead focus on his reelection bid in the state Senate.
His announcement follows Monday's news that Rogers is endorsing former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester for the GOP nomination for the 8th Congressional District seat, which represents all of Livingston and Ingham counties, and a portion of Oakland County
In a statement, Hune said he wants to contribute to “strong conservative leadership” in Lansing and spend time with his family.
“Marcia and I are really touched and overwhelmed by all of the people who have contacted us about the possibility of running for Congress. We took some time and thought very carefully about what it meant for us as a family at this point in our lives,” Hune said in his statement.
“Just like everyone else, this situation came as a surprise to us. At a time when we want to grow and enjoy more family time, adopting a congressional lifestyle just doesn’t make sense,” he added.

The bad news is that my first choice for the Congressional seat is not running. The good news is that I have a very good state senator.  No, I'm not saying that to avoid getting spit on by his camels. He does good work. His office does good work. They all put with me when issues come up.

In the 8th District, that leaves State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett. Others may be jumping in. We'll see. The filing deadline is April 22nd, and 1000 VALID signatures are needed, so the window to jump in is extremely narrow.

MI-08 - Mike Rogers endorses Bishop and the latest

There's a lot of crap stirring going on out there with this race and a lot of conspiracy theories I'm hearing about. Some of that is being pushed by the dems. That's not a surprise. They want a split party with this primary. Some of it is pushed by those with axes to grind against certain individuals. Some of it is those who want to put strong candidate or potential candidates and their teams against each other to open things up for an alternative.

From the Argus:

U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, on Monday endorsed former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester to be his replacement in Congress next year.

This should be read no more and no less than what it is. Mike Rogers and Mike Bishop served together in Lansing. They are friends. Mike didn't serve with Joe Hune or Bryan Barnett.

“We have two good people running so far,” county GOP Chairman Dan Wholihan said. Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett has announced his candidacy for the party’s nod for the seat.

“If Senator Hune runs, we’ll have a third good person as well,” Wholihan said.
“I’m biased, being a Livingston County guy, so I’d like to a have a good candidate out of Livingston County personally, but we have several good people running and I don’t think any of the two running, or if Senator Hune runs, would do a bad job,” Wholihan added.
He said he’ll support the party’s nominee regardless if that person is Joe Hune.

I didn't like the phrasing of "regardless if that person is Joe Hune" as it is contradicting sounding. My exact comment I believe was "regardless of who wins."  While being a Chair tempers my advocacy to a degree, everybody know who I'm voting for if a certain candidate runs. At the same time, that's not to say that I'd be voting against the other two or whomever else runs. This would be a race between "Good" and "Best." If Bishop or Barnett is the nominee, I'd have no problems voting for them.  

I doubt this would factor one way or the other on what Joe Hune decides. Hune is a grass roots candidate who won by knocking on doors of voters. He has the information he needs to make his decision and is discussing that with his family.

But state Sen. Rick Jones, R-Grand Ledge, said he will endorse Hune if Hune decides to run, regardless of the GOP candidate list.Jones and Hune served three two-year terms together in the state House before serving together in the Senate. Jones said Hune has shown leadership on agricultural and insurance issues and would be a perfect fit in Washington, D.C.

Much like how Bishop and Mike Rogers served together, so do Rick Jones and Joe Hune. It speaks well of candidates when colleagues step up to the plate.  I've worked with Joe's office several times going back to 2002. Good work is done there.

Judy Daubenmier, chairwoman of the county Democratic Party, said Rogers has chosen to “meddle” in the GOP primary for his office. Daubenmier questioned if Rogers was attempting to eliminate Hune as a “tea party” alternative to a more mainstream Republican.

She said Rogers’ endorsement suggests Rogers has little confidence in Hune despite being a fellow county resident serving with Rogers’ brother, state Rep. Bill Rogers, R-Genoa Township, in Lansing.
“It certainly looks like he is trying to hand-pick his successor rather than let the voters have their say first. It smacks of a bid to push Hune out of the race before he even has decided whether to get into it,” Daubenmier said.
“It’s also surprising that Joe Hune is held in such low regard by a fellow Livingston County Republican, given that he serves in the county’s legislative delegation alongside Mike Rogers’ brother,” she added.

That's wishful thinking. There's nothing better the dems want than a split party and a nasty primary.

Wholihan said he doesn’t foresee a “tea party” rift in the GOP nomination for the seat. He said Bishop demonstrated the fiscal responsibility “tea party” Republicans demanded while serving in Lansing.Wholihan said many “tea party” Republicans supported Bishop over now-state Attorney General Bill Schuette in Bishop’s 2010 state attorney general campaign.

The tea party groups like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette back in 2010. I don't know how they felt about Bryan Barnett, but anyone who gets 77% of the vote doesn't do it by accident. "Establishment" people like Joe Hune. They split their votes between Mike Bishop and Bill Schuette. Oakland County establishment like Bryan Barnett quite a bit.

There's no coronation here. Mike Rogers has his opinion. I like Mike, but it doesn't affect my opinion one way or another. I'd like to see a candidate go after the spending and not raise taxes. I know for a fact that Joe Hune will do that.

There still may be more candidates. I've heard two or three more Oakland County individuals may run, along with someone who lives just outside the district. Things aren't in stone here. 

MI-08 - Who's going to be my next Congressman?

Update 3-31-14 - Former State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett, both from the Rochester area are running. 

A new era is beginning here in the 8th District. 

(Full disclosure, I did some work for Sen. Joe Hune in his 2010 campaign)

With Mike Rogers retiring, things have significantly changed here. The 8th District leans Republican, but isn't a safe district with Mike Rogers retiring. It went for the dems at the top of the ticket in 2006 and 2008, and went for the Republicans in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2012. I went over the presidential numbers in depth here and explored an open possibility here. I'm not going to rehash the presidential numbers much or the top of the ticket numbers much here. In an Republican year, we win. In a neutral year, we probably win, but candidate quality will matter more. In a bad year, we better have a damn good candidate. The top of the ticket will have its own variables. We have to control what we control, and that means voting for a good candidate in this August primary, whomever it may be.

There's a lot of rumors going on about candidates who are and who aren't running. I'm not going to do a lot of speculation except  to say that oftentimes the national reporters don't have any idea what they are talking about. If the person doesn't live in the district or have ties to the district, the person won't be a serious candidate more than likely. Especially if the districts don't all run together (like the Bloomfield area in the 9th, 11th, and 14th). The 8th isn't like that outside of a small part of Rochester Hills which is in both districts (mostly in the 8th).

Politics 1 mentions Saul Anuzis, Bryan Barnett, Mike Bishop, Mike Bouchard, Craig DeRoche, Gail Haines, Joe Hune, Rick Jones, Jim Marleau, Tom McMillin, Barb Byrum, Sam Singh, and Peter Spadafore as possible candidates (In addition to the two announced dems Ken Darga and Susan Grettenberger).  There was very little research done there and by the national press. Mike Bouchard and Craig DeRoche both live in the 11th District nowhere near the 8th. Birmingham and Novi. Jones is in Grand Ledge, in the 7th District. He's never represented any of the 8th. Gail Haines is in the 11th, and only represents a small part of the 8th. I don't expect many of those to be serious contenders. This is not a carpetbagging friendly area, especially away from Oakland County. One better have some good ties here at minimum. Bill Rogers has announced he's not running. Joe Hune and Mike Bishop are significant names who would be contenders if they choose to run.  They are considering. Saul Anuzis who lives in Lansing (although the Eaton County side - barely) announced he is considering.  Bryan Barnett (Rochester Hills Mayor) has apparently announced he's running.  If Brad Jacobsen, Tom McMillin, or Jim Marleau run, they certainly can't be counted out. I have not heard interest expressed by them, but this is a very recent announcement. On the dem side, I expect Barb Byrum to run. The other names I've heard there are sacrificial lamb candidates. Byrum would be a tougher candidate.

The filing deadline is April 22nd. This is significant. I'll be real blunt here. There's a petition requirement of 1000 valid signatures. That means 1500-2000 are more likely needed, and not "McCotter campaign staff" style. That means there isn't much time.  Three weeks. Whoever jumps in now has to have serious organization, or the ability to raise enough money to hire petition circulators.  Anyone that doesn't have instant organization to do that is wasting their time, their money, staff time,  and volunteer time.  I don't want to lose this seat to a democrat. The easiest way to see that happen is for there to be poor organization on the R side and a bad candidate due to that.

So who would be the strongest candidates?

That's a question where we would need an educated guess. I'm going to look at four potential Republican candidates for now in alphabetical order as these the names I've heard the most.  Saul Anuzis. Bryan Barnett. Mike Bishop. Joe Hune.  On the dem side, the only potential with any chance that I can see at this point is Barb Byrum. (Gretchen Whitmer isn't running).

I'll start with the democrat, Byrum. Barb Byrum won three races in a borderline swing/slightly democrat district in Ingham County, along with the Ingham County Clerk position. Byrum's old district, the old HD-67 covers rural Ingham County, Mason, Delhi Township, and Southwest Lansing.  I believe she's in the Mason or Leslie area. Dianne represented Onondaga. The Byrums have some strength in rural Ingham County, although their real base in the portion of Lansing in their district. This is the least democrat state rep district in the county, as the other two districts are all of Lansing or overwhelmingly East Lansing/Meridian Twp based.
Unfortunately, most of the analysis is through wave elections (06, 08, 10) so it's of limited use. However, Byrum probably has to match 2006 Granholm or 2008 Obama numbers to have a chance to win. 

Overall, she'll need to get numbers similar to Obama/Granholm in 06/08 if she's going to have a good shot winning. That means about 57% or better in the district. Mike Rogers always won this state rep district.  Byrum got about 58-59% in 2006 and 63% in 2008. 2010 was a scare for her, but she survived. 2012 was countywide and she got 68%. Lansing turnout will be the biggest key for her.

Saul Anuzis has never held elected office. He's been a Legislative Chief of Staff, a consultant, a State Party Chair, and an RNC Committeeman. He's been very active behind the scenes, but this would be new territory. 

I don't know much about Bryan Barnett. He won his Rochester Hills mayoral election easily in 2011. 77.29% to 22.46%. He won in 2007 with a similar margin.  Most of Rochester Hills is in the 8th District, but only as of the 2012 election. It's a big jump from mayor to Congress, even in a city of 71,000. It's slightly smaller than a state rep district.

Mike Bishop is former Senate Majority Leader and State Rep. He ran for St Senate in 2002 and 2006 winning easily. He ran for AG at a convention and lost a tight race to Bill Schuette. No shame there.  He lost to Jessica Cooper in the 2012 election for prosecutor by 5%. Straight tickets in places like Pontiac and Southfield did him in. The area he lost was not in the 8th district.
Bishop had mostly wave elections as well during his career, although 2000 and 2002 weren't waves.  In 1998, John Engler was an incumbent and had Geoffrey Fieger  as an opponent. Todd Akin post gaffe would win against Fieger.  Bishop ran 5% behind Engler, but got 70%+ in his district.
In 2000, he ran 8-10% better than Bush across the board. Nothing overlapped with Mike Rogers as none of his district at the time was in the 8th. Bishop was in the 1990's incarnation of HD-45 which was Addison Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, Oakland Twp, Rochester, and part of Rochester Hills. It was a blood red district and still is today. North Oakland outside of Holly Twp is as Republican as Livingston County (Rochester area less R, but still safe)

In 2002, Bishop ran for State Senate and won.  SD-15 at the time has much of the North Oakland part now in the 8th at the same period. The district has Addison Twp,  Clarkston, Independence Twp, Oakland Twp (now 8th, wasn't then), Orion Twp, Oxford Twp,  Rochester (now 8th, wasn't then) , and Rochester Hills (most now in 8th, wasn't then).  It also had Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Pontiac, and Sylvan Lake which is in other districts. He ran ahead of Posthumus  across the board, by major numbers outside of Pontiac. He ran slightly ahead of Mike Rogers (1-2%) in most of the district outside of Independence and Clarkston which was within 1%.

2006 was a bad year, but Bishop won easily, albeit with 56% instead of 62%. He ran well ahead of DeVos outside of Pontiac and Keego Harbor, and by 10%+ better in his home turf of Rochester/Rochester Hills. Like 2002, he ran slightly ahead of Rogers outside of Independence/Clarkston (less than 1% variation). Pontiac is a straight ticket graveyard without base areas outvoting it. Auburn Hills is tough territory. They don't matter in the 8th.
2012 was a little different. Bishop ran slightly ahead of Romney in the 8th District part of the district when going for prosecutor. He ran behind Rogers across the board outside of Rochester and Clarkston. That's due to Rogers facing Lance Enderle who was a sacrificial lamb. Bishop challenged a strong incumbent in Jessica Cooper (was a judge before prosecutor).  Not surprising, Bishop was much stronger in the Eastern part of Oakland County in the 8th district.  Here's a map, because it has probably the best comparisons. The red is where he ran ahead of Romney by over 2%. The  "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead by 0-2%. The light blue is where he ran behind by 0-2%. He didn't run behind Romney anywhere by a significant margin.



This is the only time where Bishop was held to what is slightly better than "generic R." Bishop got 59.92% in North Oakland compared to Romney's 58.35% (and Rogers 63.42%). Even so, he's still quite strong in Orion Twp, Oakland Twp, and the Rochester area. That's his base.

The last potential  candidate here is Joe Hune.  In 2002, Livingston County went big for Republicans overall.  Rogers was at his height in popularity, and also had a D- opponent.  Hune ran well behind Rogers in his first race - except in his home base of Handy Twp where he ran ahead of even Mike Rogers breaking 80% there.  Hune running 7% behind Mike Rogers isn't to be confused that with weakness. Hune won the general election with 68% to Rogers  75%. Both ran ahead of the top of the ticket by significant margins. Posthumus  got 61.28%, Hune 68.85%, and Rogers 75.85%. 

In 2004, Hune has his best year by percentage. He ran 9% ahead of Bush, and even ahead of Rogers, although by less than 1%. He ran strongly ahead of Bush everyone. The red is where he ran  ahead of Rogers by 2%. The black is where he ran ahead by 5% or more. The "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead 0-2%.  Light blue is where Rogers ran 0-2% ahead. The blue is where Rogers ran 3-5%+ Keep in mind that in his weaker areas, he still ran well ahead of Bush - and Bush won the district with 61.85%. Hune and Rogers  broke 70%.



2006 was a rougher year. DeVos was held to 55.82% in the district. Hune had 61.56% and Rogers 62.15%. He didn't run ahead of Rogers this time, but here's the map with the same codes.



2010 was a wave year and Rogers and Snyder both got over 71%. Hune ran behind them a bit for an open seat (ran almost even in his base area), but still got almost 68%. Rogers is originally from Brighton Township, so that factors into the difference with Rogers.  This is the first time Hune represented that part of the county. 

Again, the thing to remember is that Mike Rogers is generally the gold standard of Republican electoral performance in this district. In all except one race, Mike Bishop ran well ahead of the ticket. In all races, except the 2010 wave, Joe Hune ran well ahead of the ticket.  Neither of these two would drag down the ticket. This is not measuring "weakness", but extra strength needed to go into a congressional run in case of trouble against a democrat. 

If Hune, Bishop, Anuzis, Barnett, or someone else gets numbers ahead of the top of the ticket in a neutral or wave election, we'll be fine. If we have someone that underperforms, we're in trouble. 

The announcement about Rogers not running is two days ago, so there's a lot of behind the scenes rumors, measuring, jockeying, and organization going on right now. There is not a major window with the quick filing deadline. Expect some decisions to be made fast, and for a lot of people to get behind a candidate (or two) quickly so this person gets on the ballot. 


Let's hope for a good clean primary with minimum mudslinging, and hope the best candidate wins.

State Senate Redistricting - District 22 (SD-22)

State Senate - District 22
Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325

This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.

I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.

This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.

Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	55592	42349	97941	13243	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	526	481	1007	45	52.23%	47.77%	4.47%
Chelsea	1214	1748	2962	-534	40.99%	59.01%	-18.03%
Dexter Twp	1730	2064	3794	-334	45.60%	54.40%	-8.80%
Freedom Twp	481	428	909	53	52.92%	47.08%	5.83%
Lima Twp	973	973	1946	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1894	1803	3697	91	51.23%	48.77%	2.46%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	1578	-108	46.58%	53.42%	-6.84%
Manchester Twp	1241	1424	2665	-183	46.57%	53.43%	-6.87%
Northfield Twp	2109	2310	4419	-201	47.73%	52.27%	-4.55%
Saline Twp	539	507	1046	32	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Scio Twp	3772	7709	11481	-3937	32.85%	67.15%	-34.29%
Sharon Twp	556	503	1059	53	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	1915	-77	47.99%	52.01%	-4.02%
Webster Twp	1911	2186	4097	-275	46.64%	53.36%	-6.71%
Total	74192	66324	140516	7868	52.80%	47.20%	5.60%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	58860	33991	92851	24869	63.39%	36.61%	26.78%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	550	352	902	198	60.98%	39.02%	21.95%
Chelsea	1300	1490	2790	-190	46.59%	53.41%	-6.81%
Dexter Twp	1909	1672	3581	237	53.31%	46.69%	6.62%
Freedom Twp	481	405	886	76	54.29%	45.71%	8.58%
Lima Twp	926	709	1635	217	56.64%	43.36%	13.27%
Lodi Twp	2104	1519	3623	585	58.07%	41.93%	16.15%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	1530	94	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Manchester Twp	1299	1168	2467	131	52.66%	47.34%	5.31%
Northfield Twp	2352	2027	4379	325	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Saline Twp	612	464	1076	148	56.88%	43.12%	13.75%
Scio Twp	4244	6262	10506	-2018	40.40%	59.60%	-19.21%
Sharon Twp	630	440	1070	190	58.88%	41.12%	17.76%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	1802	164	54.55%	45.45%	9.10%
Webster Twp	2097	1707	3804	390	55.13%	44.87%	10.25%
Total	79159	53743	132902	25416	59.56%	40.44%	19.12%
Last St Senate	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%