In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Last minute 2014 General Election updates (Livingston County)

Sorry for the lack of updates. Between my real job and county party duties, I haven't had the time to update this. I wish I did so before the absentee votes came out.

First off, I'll say that these are my opinions and not those of LCRP.

Secondly, some predict a wave election in the bag because it is an off-year. I don't see it. This ain't 2010. This ain't 1994. This isn't 2008 or 2006. I think it's somewhere between 1990, 2002, 2004, or to a lesser extent 2012. Not quite a status quo election, but close. Obama's an issue, but this is a state level election were state issues dominate.

Governor - I've had my ups and downs with Rick Snyder at times. He's a helluva lot better than Schauer. I give my reasons of voting for him in the previous post. I think he wins, but it's going to be close. It depends how many conservatives show up and vote - and how many union folks vote.

Senate - I hope Terri Lynn Land wins it. I've known her since her first run in 2002. She's a good person who did a very good job as Secretary of State. I also think a lot of consultants and pundits (I never cared for "That's Criminal" Frank Beckmann - go Spartans!) have done her a disservice by running their mouths to the press instead of trying to help her win. There was no primary. When some were begging for someone (Mike Rogers and Dave Camp were heavily recruited) to run, she stepped up and did it. Gary Peters simply has a history of doing what he's told (like Schauer). Whatever Pelosi wants, Peters delivered. The same goes for leadership back when Peters was in the State Senate. Easy vote for me. I'm voting for someone that actually ran a department. It'll be an upset if Land wins, but I think the polls are off a bit. I don't see this going double digits, and expect it to be about 5% or less. With the right turnout, I can see an upset.

Secretary of State and Attorney General - I don't see Ruth Johnson or Bill Schuette losing this.

Congress - I think Bishop has this by about 10% or so. I'm starting to see more from Schertzing, but I haven't seen much (surprisingly) - especially for 30%+ of the vote already in. Nothing with Lansing and East Lansing in the district is safe, but I don't see this flipping. Schertzing will be strong to an extent in Ingham County, but is virtually unknown in the rest of the district.

State Senate - Joe Hune's doing what he has to do to win and will do so Tuesday, much to the wailing of the local dems. His two-faced opponent raised and spent 80K and is running ads sounding like a "no labels" candidate when in fact she's an extreme leftist who supports higher taxes (services, vehicle registrations, and property taxes), is against industry in the name of global warming, and supports late term taxpayer funded abortions. I don't think it will work. In one blog interview she had, she bragged about knocking on around 100 doors so far in the week she gave the interview (3-4 day period). That isn't going to cut it. Her data of the partisan makeup of the district is also incorrect (and I have the same data list that she has)  She also wasn't aware of Joe Hune being in Washtenaw County until the candidate forums. Joe's worked the entire district and that started long before the candidate forums. The dems are going after Joe and firing off nasty attacks, but that's a good way to join the ranks of Frank McAlpine, Jim Marcinkowski, and Mike Tipton. Nasty political attacks results in an ass kicking.

State Rep - Safe for Lana Theis and Doc Vaupel. Both candidates worked extremely hard in the primaries and are still running their campaigns. Tim Johnson is so far out of the mainstream to have a ghost of a chance, and Lana's outworking him in a big way. Lana will do well, both here and in Lansing. Jordan Genso's a nice guy, but he's got about as tough of a matchup as it gets. Vaupel's going to be a great rep who will do the county proud.

Supreme Court - Zahra, Viviano, and Redford. All of them do a great job. The dems are pushing Richard Bernstein. Nothing against him, but I can't vote for someone for Supreme Court who does not have judicial experience. While ideological issues get the hype, most of the work is with procedural issues, and that's where the judicial experience really matters.


District Court - Dennis Brewer, hands down. I couldn't vote for Theresa Brennan even if she was a Republican. I'll just let Attorney Linda Walker explain one of the biggest reasons. I don't know Linda well, although I've met her a couple of times this year. As someone who has argued a PPO case in court (not in front of Brennan), I was flabbergasted the first time I heard that story. I remember the actual crime, but didn't know about this hearing beforehand. Dennis Brewer had my vote.

County Commissioner - The Republicans have done a good job there. The budget is balanced, every year and the taxes are low. They dealt with some tough situations outside of their control and have done a good job there. I see two seats that I'm keeping an eye on that could be close. One I don't see close but want to mention is District 5. Make sure Don Parker gets your vote. His opponent would embarrass the county with his mouth. 

University Boards
MSU - Jeff Sakwa is a great guy. He works extremely hard, is a good businessman, and cares heavily about the Spartans. Melanie Foster also has my support.


UM - Dr Rob Steele is a good guy I've crossed paths with on several occasions. Ambassador Ron Weiser was a very good state chair for our party and also has my vote. 


School Board:
Brighton - I'd support two. John Conely and Miles Vieau. Conely especially is doing a great job there. I'd short vote to help their chances.

Howell - There are two "unopposed" and a write-in who will win. I know of two of the people running there. Deb Drick did a good job on the board previously. If I still lived in Howell, I would FILL IN THE CIRCLE and vote for Deb Drick. Don't forget to fill in the circle. I've met Adam Hukkala a few times. Nice kid, but he goes to college in Grand Valley. Grand Rapids is two hours from Howell. Will he have enough time to do the job?

 Hartland - Charlie Aberasturi is a good guy.

 NOVEMBER 4, 2014  BALLOT PROPOSALS (offered without comment)

TYRONE TOWNSHIP PUBLIC SAFETY PROPOSAL

Shall a special assessment district be created, encompassing all of Tyrone Township, for purposes of purchasing public safety services and general operations for fire protection, and annually assessing each parcel of land as follows:

a) Vacant parcels, $85;

b) Parcels with residential structures, $175;

c) All other parcels, $300;

d) For those parcels containing structures or manufactured homes with multiple units, an additional sum of $20 per unit will be assessed,

with the assessments levied for a period of 6 years commencing in 2015 and continuing through and including 2020? The first year of the assessment shall generate estimated revenues of $684,880. During the term of this assessment, the assessment may be increased in an amount not to exceed 10% of the original assessment or decreased by an amount deemed appropriate by the Tyrone Township Board.

HOWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS

OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL

This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exemp

ted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the

2015 tax levy.

Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 19.0495 mills ($19.0495 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Howell Public Schools, Livingston

County, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 12 years, 2016 to 2027, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and levied in 2016 is approximately $11,540,141 (this is a renewal of millage which will expire with the 2015 tax levy)?

HAMBURG TOWNSHIP ROAD MILLAGE PROPOSAL

Is Hamburg Township, Livingston County, Michigan, authorized to levy against all real property in the Township an amount not to exceed 2.00 mill ($2.00 on each $1,000 of taxable value) for a period of five (5) years, 2014 to 2018 inclusive, and 1.00 mill ($1.00 on each $1,000 of taxable value) for a period of 10 years, from 2019 through 2028 inclusive, for the purpose of improvements, repair and maintenance of public roads in Hamburg Township? Improvements would include repaving of paved roads, chip sealing of paved roads, adding gravel to gravel roads, and related drainage improvements. If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2014, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $1,831,500.

WHITMORE LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOLS ANNEXATION AND ASSUMPTION OF BONDED INDEBTEDNESS PROPOSITION

This proposal is only effective if the electors of the Public Schools of the City of Ann Arbor on November 4, 2014 approve the assumption of the bonded indebtedness of Whitmore Lake Public School District.

Shall Whitmore Lake Public School District, Washtenaw and Livingston Counties, Michigan, be annexed to Public Schools of the City of Ann Arbor, Washtenaw County, Michigan effective July 1, 2015 and on the effective date of annexation, assume the bonded indebtedness of Public

Schools of the City of Ann Arbor?

CROMAINE DISTRICT LIBRARY BALLOT PROPOSAL

Shall the Cromaine District Library, County of Livingston, Michigan, borrow the sum of not to exceed Twelve Million Dollars ($12,000,000) and issue its general obligation unlimited tax bonds therefor, payable in not to exceed twenty (20) years from date of issuance exclusive of refunding,

for the purpose of paying all or part of the costs of acquiring, constructing, furnishing and equipping an expansion and improvements to the Cromaine Library, including related parking and site improvements? The estimated millage to be levied in 2015 is 0.85 mills ($0.85 per $1,000 of taxable value) and the estimated simple average annual millage rate required to retire the bonds is 0.76 mils ($0.76 per $1,000 of taxable value).

PINCKNEY COMMUNITY SCHOOLS

OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL

This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the

2014 tax levy.

Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 18 mills ($18.00 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Pinckney Community Schools, Livingston and

Washtenaw Counties, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 6 years, 2015 to 2020, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate

of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and levied in 2015 is approximately $3,728,530 (this is a renewal of

millage which will expire with the 2014 tax levy?

IOSCO TOWNSHIP ROAD MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL

To provide funds, One Point Four One Three Three (1.4133) Mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of State Taxable Valuation) for the improvement, maintenance, and dust control of public roads in Iosco Township for a period of five (5) years beginning December 2015.

Shall the expired previous voted increases in the tax limitations imposed under Article IX, Sec. 6 of the Michigan Constitution in Iosco Township, of 1.5 mills ($1.50 per $1,000.00 of taxable value), reduced to 1.4133 mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of taxable value) by the required millage rollbacks, be renewed at 1.4133 mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of taxable value) and levied for a period of five (5) years from 2015 through 2019 inclusive for funding road maintenance, road improvements and dust control for the public roads of the Township of Iosco, Livingston County, Michigan, raising an estimated $178,000.00 in the first year the millage is levied?

HARTLAND TOWNSHIP ROAD MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT MILLAGE PROPOSAL

Shall the tax limitation imposed under Article IX, Sec. 6 of the Michigan Constitution on all taxable real and tangible personal property within the Township of Hartland, Livingston County, Michigan, be increased for said Township in an amount not to exceed 1.5 mills ($1.50 on each $1,000 of

taxable value) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014 to 2023, inclusive, to provide funds for the purpose of road maintenance and improvements, including grading, storm water drainage and chloride treatment; and shall the Township levy such new additional millage for said purpose; the

estimate of the revenue the Township of Hartland will collect if the millage is approved and levied by the Township in the 2014 calendar year is approximately $873,000?

STOCKBRIDGE COMMUNITY SCHOOLS

OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL

This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the

2014 tax levy.

Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 23.2595 mills ($23.2595 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Stockbridge Community Schools,

Ingham, Jackson, Livingston and Washtenaw Counties, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 4 years, 2015 to 2018, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and 18 mills are levied in 2015 is approximately $1,650,000 (this is a renewal of millage which will expire with the 2014 tax levy)?

Who is running in Livingston County for 2014 partisan elections?

The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.

Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for  Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.

For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)

Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.

Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)

We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance.  As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.

Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin  (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)

This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.

State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)

Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.


State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp),  Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)

I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you).  I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.

The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair. 


47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)

This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.

The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.

County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.

District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.

District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012.  Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.

District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)

Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county).  Hartland doesn't vote for dems.  


District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)

This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp.  Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat.  Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.



District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)

Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.

District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of  Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)


Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.

Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy)  Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.

District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)

Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.

District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)

This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.

District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)

Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.

Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)

Conway's heavily independent but conservative.

When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.

The field is set. It's time to get to work.