In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Road taxes shows differences in 42nd District race

The Argus has a story about the roads, gas taxes and the candidates for the 42nd District here in Livingston County.

Not surprisingly, I highly disagree with one of them regarding the gas tax. There's been a militant push among many in the media and political class supporting the gas tax going back to 2007. It has taken seven years and luckily it still had not increased over the 36-40 cents it is currently (depending on price at the pump).

Perlberg said the state must address two decades of neglect of Michigan’s roads.
Lawmakers continue to seek another $1.2 billion in annual road funding.
“I would achieve that with a combination of increased gas taxes and vehicle registration fees. That could be tempered in the future if we have sustained economic growth, which will produce additional dollars into our general fund,” he said at the recent forum.

I'll give Rich Perlberg credit for being out and open about his support for this. It's certainly not going to be a popular answer. Considering we have the 6th highest gas tax in the country, it shouldn't be a popular answer.

Lana Theis had this.

Brighton Township Treasurer Lana Theis, also a GOP contender for the House seat, said capturing 25 percent of annual state budget increases could fill the funding gap.Theis said her idea would have captured a total of roughly $1 billion between the 2010 and 2014 budget years.

“The problem is not that we’re not taking enough money. It’s that we’re not spending the money in the right place,” Theis said at the Daily Press & Argus candidate forum.“Until they prove to me that they’re spending all of the money that we take at the pump on the roads, I don’t even want to discuss a tax increase,” Theis added.

Nick Fiani had this

Nick Fiani, president of the Brighton Area Schools Board of Education and a GOP House candidate, said the state should strictly dedicate gas taxes, the state’s sales tax on gas, and vehicle registration fees to roads.
Dedicating the sales tax on gasoline to roads would involve voter approval because it would require a constitutional amendment. Without increasing the sales tax, it also would mean schools and local governments would lose funding they currently rely on.
Fiani said road funding could also receive a boost through repealing Michigan’s prevailing-wage law on public construction projects and through more competitive bidding on projects.
He said his overall plan would create between $750 million and nearly $1 billion each year in extra road funding.
“There is absolutely no need to raise taxes to fix Michigan roads. If the state and the government would utilize the proper and appropriate streams of revenue toward the appropriate expenditures, a solution could be (found),” he said.

Dale Rogers had this

GOP House candidate Dale Rogers, a Novi High School vocational teacher, called for a bipartisan commission to review state spending.
Rogers said a starting point could be axing tax-incentive programs.
For the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, the state’s economic development incentives will be funded at $130 million, and the state’s filmmaking incentives at $50 million, according to state figures.
If the appropriated $180 million in incentives went to roads, that would still be $1.02 billion short of Snyder’s figure.
Most of the business incentives are scheduled to expire, but with program dollars intended to fill a revenue gap created by ending the personal-property tax on business equipment.
Rogers said the panel also could consider slashing a portion of state Department of Corrections funding, set at $2.04 billion for 2015.

I also saw this quote which tells me many of the same problems at the heart of every budget issue is still around.  

But only about $10 billion of next year’s $52 billion budget is state money. The remaining $42 billion is federal money, none of which can be redirected for other uses, explained David Murray, Snyder’s deputy press secretary.Murray said state general fund revenue increased about $1.1 billion from 2012 to next year’s budget, however.

I have a hard time believing that the $42 billion is federal money. He's confusing "state money" with earmarked money.  Some money is earmarked due to federal strings attached (matching funds, etc) and some is due to the State Constitution provision. It would take an amendment to change some of those. It's also something that needs to be looked at. If 82% of the budget can't be touched, than the legislature and governor has a real hard time doing its job properly. Until more than 8-10 billion can be adjusted, we'll always have budgetary problems in this state.  It's a structural issue that goes back to before Engler. Open up the whole damn thing and fix it. Don't give us another tax.

Lana Theis running in 42nd District for State Rep

Campaign season is starting early here in Livingston County. We already have three candidates running in the 47th District, and now we have our first announcement for my own 42nd District (Which was the 66th District until 2012). Lana Theis, past chair of LCGOP and current Brighton Township Treasurer, is running to replace Bill Rogers, who is currently term limited.

I've known Lana for almost ten years. I first met her when she was one of the Victory Center directors back in 2004. Since then, she's had various party leadership positions including being the past LCGOP Chair.  She was also one of the leaders against the infamous and highly restrictive Brighton Township Tree Ordnance (Repealed) and later became Brighton Township Treasurer. She's currently in her 2nd term. Most recently, she lead the fight for Proposal 5, which was the push for a 2/3rd legislative requirement to raise taxes. I supported that proposal and voted for it. It unfortunately did not pass. She's also a longtime friend of Americans for Prosperity.

Lana is a fiscal and social conservative and does not hide that fact. I think she'll be a strong candidate if she gets the funding and stays focused.

Other candidates may run as well. If everyone I think might run does run, I'm going to have a real tough time with my decision, and that's in a positive sense instead of a lesser of evils sense. Most of the names I'm hearing are good people.

I'm not making any endorsements outside of the winning primary candidate because I am the current LCGOP chair.