In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Mark Schauer - Pure Yesman

If there is one word I can use to describe former Congresscritter and state legislator Mark Schauer, it's Yesman. He is the epidomy of a yesman. He did whatever Granholm, Obama, or Pelosi asked him to do. He talks a game and tries to sound moderate, but when the going gets tough, he goes leftist.

When CCW was an issue in the Michigan House in 99/00, he voted for every bad amendment - including making cars a criminal empowerment zone (that amendment failed), but then voted for the final bill just to say that he wasn't anti-2nd Amendment. Weasel move. He then cosponsored a major gun grab package with Gilda Jacobs that luckily went nowhere.

He supports every pro-abortion measure there is.

He voted for cap and trade in Michigan of all places trying to destroy our industry.

He voted for Obamacare.

He was fined $200000+ in campaign finance violations

He voted for Granholm's income tax increase.

He voted for the Obama Stimulus plan.

This guy would be the return of the Matt Millen of Governors and then some.

Closer look at 7th district results

Up North is a good barometer for the state as a whole in its leanings. Another one is the 7th District.

Tim Walberg won his rematch against Mark Schauer. Schauer couldn't hide himself from his record and lost by 11,000 votes. I said this about the 7th back in January.

I am more familiar with this district than any other outside of the 8th, where I live. I commuted through it every day in law school. I live about a mile from the district (no jokes about seeing the district). I have family in the district (and my family originally settled in Marshall when they moved to Michigan). One of the PAC's I'm involved with is based in Hillsdale and Jackson Counties. I also am very familiar with the Lansing area, as well as Eaton County. Branch County is the only area I'm not very familiar with. Overall if I have to describe its leanings, I'd say conservative, populist, and independent. It's not one that can be taken for granted.

This district is a competitive populist leaning district in South Central Michigan. It usually leans Republican, but voted for Clinton, Bush twice, Granholm once, and Obama. McCain left the state in 09, and the NRCC reportedly packed up shop and conceded the congressional race. Mark Schauer, endorsed by RINO (and I have rarely use that term for the last 4 years) Joe Schwarz, won 49-46.

The Republican district base here is Hillsdale (which usually battles Livingston, Saniliac and Allegan for 3rd place in percentages) and Branch Counties, along with Summit Twp (usually), Sandstone Twp and Spring Arbor in Jackson County, and Lodi and Salem Twps in Washtenaw County. The Democrat base is the city of Jackson, Albion, Battle Creek, Springfield, Benton Twp, Adrian, Scio Township in Washtenaw County, Chelsea, and Eaton County's portion of Lansing. The rest can be competitive and usually leans slightly Republican, but not overwhelming so. Eaton County and Washtenaw County have really tilted blue heavily in 2006 and 2008, and the rest did not move as democrat. Calhoun County is slightly democrat, but winnable for Republicans. Eaton County swings and has been treading Democrat with its Lansing area influence. Western Washtenaw Swings. Jackson County swings, although won more by Republicans than Democrats at the top of the ticket. Lenawee County is a swing county, although with a bit of a social conservative streak. Both Jackson County and Lenawee County voted for Bush twice and Obama. Lenawee voted for Clinton. Jackson did not.

Mark Schauer is good at making his leftist self looking moderate. He's the type of guy who as a state rep supported all bad amendments to the CCW bill, including making cars a criminal empowerment zone. He then voted for the final bill to say that he did. He is also strongly pro-abortion, supporting of cap and trade, and voted for the government takeover. If his chameleon style gets caught for good, he should be beaten in this district. He is a very good campaigner however, and can not be taken lightly.

This was a close race in both 2008 and 2010. Schauer won with 48.79% in 2008. Walberg won with 50.01% of the vote in 2010.

Here's the difference.

	Tim	Mark	All	TOTAL
COUNTY	Walberg	Schauer	3rd	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	Party	COUNTY	Walberg	Schauer	3rd
12 BRANCH	7,243	4,738	714	12,695	57.05%	37.32%	5.62%
13 CALHOUN	17,980	19,630	1635	39,245	45.81%	50.02%	4.17%
23 EATON	21,133	22,091	2599	45,823	46.12%	48.21%	5.67%
30 HILLSDALE	8,682	4,594	811	14,087	61.63%	32.61%	5.76%
38 JACKSON	25,054	21,432	2207	48,693	51.45%	44.01%	4.53%
46 LENAWEE	16,332	13,935	1177	31,444	51.94%	44.32%	3.74%
81 WASHTENAW	17,960	17,230	1186	36,376	49.37%	47.37%	3.26%
	Tim	Mark	all	TOTAL
COUNTY	Walberg	Schauer	3rd	BY
CODE/NAME	REP	DEM	Party	COUNTY
===============	==============	==============	==============	==============
Totals	114,384	103,650	10,329	228,363	50.09%	45.39%	4.52%

And 2008.

Branch County
Walberg - 55.58%, Schauer 38.74% - 17,752 votes, 2988 vote spread

Calhoun County (Schauer's home)
Schauer - 56.00%, Walberg 39.81% - 60113 votes, -9735 spread

Eaton County
Schauer - 49.60%, Walberg - 44.62% - 55751 votes, -2777 spread

Hillsdale County:
Walberg - 60.11%, Schauer - 34.92% - 19989 votes, 5034 vote spread

Jackson County:
Schauer - 48.19%, Walberg - 47.12% - 72583 votes, -780 vote spread

Lenawee County
Walberg - 49.15%, Schauer - 47.15% - 46696 votes, 934 vote spread

Washtenaw County
Schauer - 50.74%, Walberg - 44.40% - 49349 votes, -3129 vote spread
------------------------------


Jackson County flipped, as I expected (as well as both state rep districts there). Calhoun County was closer this time, and not a blowout. Walberg took Lenawee and helped us flip the state rep district back for the first time since Walberg had that district himself. Eaton County is still a bear for Walberg. It's a county with a lot of state workers, and Walberg's strong anti-tax and anti-spending views do not sell there as well as they do in Hillsdale.

Calhoun County was closer than expected. Schauer took Springfield, Albion and Battle Creek big, as well as Bedford Twp and Tekonsha Twp. Walberg took the City and Township of Marshall, Albion Twp, Athens Twp, Burlington, Clarence, Clarendon, Convis, Eckford, Emmet, Fredonia, Homer, Lee, Marengo, Pennfield, and Sheridan Townships. Emmet, Homer, Pennfield, and Marshall flipped to Walberg. Schauer flipped Tekonsha.


Walberg took the Washtenaw County portion of the district for the 1st time, the same area that Mark Ouimet took from the democrats in the state rep district. Walberg took Bridgewater, Dexter Twp (not the village which is largely in Scio Twp), Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp (in a blowout solely to precinct 1, he lost precinct 2). Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, the small part of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. Schauer took Chelsea and Scio Twp (big). Dexter Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp,  Northfield Twp,  City of Saline, and Webster Twp flipped.


It'll be interesting what the redistricters decide to do besides go after Gary Peters. If I'm drawing the map, I'm giving Eaton County to Mike Rogers who does relatively well in the Lansing area for a Republican. I'll give Barry and Monroe Counties to Walberg instead (all districts need to expand). Barry County is strongly Republican, and while Monroe County is more historically democrat than Eaton, it's still a better matchup than Eaton County for Tim Walberg as an individual. I'd give Scio Township to Dingell's district.

Remember these votes. Defeat Stupak. Defeat Schauer. Defeat Peters.

While Bart Stupak in the first district (MI-01) is dominating the headlines for his flip on this bill, he's not the only democrat who voted for this here in Michigan. Five of them are in 60% Democrat seats and would be extremely difficult to defeat. It's still worth a shot this year, but I expect them to survive unless we have a 1994 type year. Dale Kildee in MI-05, John Conyers (Detroit), Carolyn Kilpatrick (Detroit), Sander Levin (Southern Oakland and Macomb Counties), and John Dingell (Ann Arbor, Downriver).

Two others that need the heat are Mark Schauer in the 7th District (MI-07), and Gary Peters in the 9th District (MI-09). These are difficult, but winnable districts. Bush won twice in both of these districts. With the dip in 2006 and 2008 over thanks to Bush's retirement, I like the chances for taking these seats back with Obama's overreach.

Mark Schauer is a yesman with no original thought of his own except those given by his masters. Pelosi and Obama. He also received the endorsement of NARAL already. That is not a good district for someone to be rabidly pro-abortion like Schauer. He needs to be shown the door, and Tim Walberg is the man to do it.

Gary Peters is much like Schauer. His economic leftism is not a good fit for the 9th district, and when they get taxed up the wazoo with the surcharges, there should be hell to pay. Peters needs to be shown the door and Rocky Raczkowski who has won three difficult races in Farmington Hills, is the man to do it.

Stupak needs to go, but so does Schauer and Peters. Don't forget them.

Tim Walberg leads Mark Schauer in early polling

I got this in an email press release from Tim Wallberg's campaign. I normally don't pass these along, but the poll numbers are being released.

Tipton, MI- Recent polling demonstrates that Freshman Democrat Congressman Mark Schauer is very vulnerable to defeat, as Republican Challenger Tim Walberg leads him 46% to 37% in the head to head ballot, and when “leaners” are included, Tim Walberg leads 50% to 40%.  Mark Schauer does, however, lead Republican candidate Brian Rooney 39% to 31%.  Below and attached is the Polling Memo from Adam Geller of National Research Inc.  National Research Inc. is a national political and corporate polling firm, whose client list includes Governor Chris Christie, members of Congress and State Legislatures, the NRCC, NRSC and RGA. 

“Mark Schauer has been on a spending spree and destroying jobs.  Voters want a proven, principled conservative who will watch over their tax dollars and work to grow our economy,” said Tim Walberg.

TO:                  INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:            ADAM GELLER

RE:                  SURVEY RESULTS

DATE:             JANUARY 18, 2010

The political environment in Michigan’s 7^th congressional district has seriously deteriorated for Democrats over the past year.  The generic environment favors Republicans, Tim Walberg is handily beating Freshman Congressman Mark Schauer in the head to head ballot, and Schauer’s key ratings, such as job approval, re-elect and image, show that he has done nothing to distinguish himself.  Combined, these factors place Schauer high atop the list of vulnerable incumbents.

Specific findings:

• The generic ballot favors the Republicans.  By a score of 41%-35%, voters prefer the Republican to the Democrat in the generic congressional ballot.  

• Republican challenger Tim Walberg is over-performing the generic and is handily defeating Mark Schauer in the ballot test.  Tim Walberg is currently beating Schauer in the ballot 46%-37%.  When “leaners” are included, Tim’s lead expands to 50%-40%.  Some of this is a function of Tim’s personal appeal; against Republican Brian Rooney, Schauer leads, 39%-31%.

• Schauer is vulnerable on several fronts.    Mark Schauer just has bad numbers for an incumbent.  Only 37% of voters would re-elect him, while 40% say they prefer a new person.   Furthermore, 40% approve of the job he’s done, while 39% disapprove. These are bad numbers for an incumbent at the very beginning of a campaign in which he will find himself on the defensive, as is the nature of such contests.

• The President and the Speaker have bad numbers too.   President Obama has a job approval rating of 48%, with 48% disapproving.  And only 35% have a favorable image of Speaker Pelosi, while 55% have an unfavorable image.

The Bottom Line: The overall environment has soured for the Democrats in this district.  Schauer’s numbers are flat, and will not get any better during the course of a spirited campaign.  The President and the Speaker are currently a drag on Schauer.  Add to that the turnout dynamics of a mid-term election, and it is very clear that the Freshman Democratic Congressman belongs at the very top of the list of vulnerable Democrats.

It's a good start, and I'm not that surprised at this in the 7th district which is quite populist and disgusted at Washington in general. There's still a lot of work to do though, and Schauer can not be underestimated as a campaigner. He's quite good at hiding his leftism.

Congressional District 7 (MI-07) Updated

Update 5-18-2010 Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 Primary results

Michigan's 7th District - Congress

Incumbent - Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2.
Cook District Numbers - R+2

GOP Candidates - Tim Walberg
Dem Candidate - Mark Schauer

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 52%
McCain - 47%

2004:
Bush - 54%
Kerry – 45%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 46%

I am more familiar with this district than any other outside of the 8th, where I live. I commuted through it every day in law school. I live about a mile from the district (no jokes about seeing the district). I have family in the district (and my family originally settled in Marshall when they moved to Michigan). One of the PAC's I'm involved with is based in Hillsdale and Jackson Counties. I also am very familiar with the Lansing area, as well as Eaton County. Branch County is the only area  I'm not very familiar with. Overall if I have to describe its leanings, I'd say conservative, populist, and independent. It's not one that can be taken for granted.

This district is a competitive populist leaning district in South Central Michigan. It usually leans Republican, but voted for Clinton, Bush twice, Granholm once, and Obama. McCain left the state in 09, and the NRCC reportedly packed up shop and conceded the congressional race. Mark Schauer, endorsed by RINO (and I have rarely use that term for the last 4 years) Joe Schwarz, won 49-46.

The Republican district base here is Hillsdale (which usually battles Livingston, Saniliac and Allegan for 3rd place in percentages) and Branch Counties, along with Summit Twp (usually), Sandstone Twp and Spring Arbor in Jackson County, and Lodi and Salem Twps in Washtenaw County. The Democrat base is the city of Jackson, Albion, Battle Creek, Springfield, Benton Twp, Adrian, Scio Township in Washtenaw County, Chelsea, and Eaton County's portion of Lansing. The rest can be competitive and usually leans slightly Republican, but not overwhelming so. Eaton County and Washtenaw County have really tilted blue heavily in 2006 and 2008, and the rest did not move as democrat. Calhoun County is slightly democrat, but winnable for Republicans. Eaton County swings and has been treading Democrat with its Lansing area influence. Western Washtenaw Swings. Jackson County swings, although won more by Republicans than Democrats at the top of the ticket. Lenawee County is a swing county, although with a bit of a social conservative streak. Both Jackson County and Lenawee County voted for Bush twice and Obama. Lenawee voted for Clinton. Jackson did not.

Mark Schauer is good at making his leftist self looking moderate. He's the type of guy who as a state rep supported all bad amendments to the CCW bill, including making cars a criminal empowerment zone. He then voted for the final bill to say that he did. He is also strongly pro-abortion, supporting of cap and trade, and voted for the government takeover. If his chameleon style gets caught for good, he should be beaten in this district. He is a very good campaigner however, and can not be taken lightly.

The Republicans are running three candidates. Tim Walberg is making a comeback. He has a very strong core base of supporters, including in important Lenawee County.  Brian Rooney moved to the 7th from Canton to run against Walberg and Schauer. I think that will be a major problem for him. The 7th is a different type of district. Outside of maybe Saline or Scio Twp, and parts of Eaton County, most people from the 7th have lived there a long time if not for generations. This is old free soil country and railroad country. There are not the same number of transients or transplants here as in say the 8th district. Marvin Carlson is also running. I expect Walberg to be the favorite to be the nominee, and I think he's a got a real good chance, if he runs a smart campaign, to take this seat back.

Nick Smith had this district for years, and mostly without trouble although I believe 1992 was tough for him. The dems tried to take him out in 96, and lost badly. He had a free pass. Joe Schwarz was a one-termer from 04 to 06. He won the primary with about 25% of the vote. The dems really didn't contest the race, and Schwarz won easily, but there was significant 3rd party defections, and an opening for a democrat who was pro-gun, and pro-life (Spade?). In 2006 Schwarz lost the primary to Tim Walberg. Walberg did not have a lot of money and won in the tough 2006 year (Rural areas went big for the dems that year) with about 50%. The nationals conceded this in 08 and Schauer won narrowly. Again, there was 3rd party defections, enough to shift the race.

Bush did quite here and overperformed, particularly in Jackson County in 2004. In fact, I think Bush saved a couple of seats for the GOP in 04 against strong democrats. I'll be posting the 00, 04, and 08 presidential numbers here, as I expect this to be the biggest contest in 2010 that is not the gubernatorial race. 2000 was probably more accurate of representation for the general trends in this district than 2004 or 2008. The numbers won't be completely accurate, since parts of four precincts in Scio Twp are in Dingell's 15th district. 403 votes of Scio or so are in the Dingell district. My numbers will be slightly more democrat than the real numbers because of that. If the race comes down to 400 votes in Scio Twp, you're in big trouble. It's "Ann Arbor West." It's where I-94 and M-14 meet. .

Here's the 2008 results.

2008 Election	Walberg	Schauer	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Branch County	9,866	6,878	1008	17,752	2988	55.58%	38.74%	16.83%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Albion	664	2,512	93	3,269	-1848	20.31%	76.84%	-56.53%
Albion Twp	275	281	24	580	-6	47.41%	48.45%	-1.03%
Athens Twp	301	258	21	580	43	51.90%	44.48%	7.41%
City of Battle Creek	7,820	14,161	828	22,809	-6341	34.28%	62.09%	-27.80%
Bedford Twp	1,886	2,630	198	4,714	-744	40.01%	55.79%	-15.78%
Burlington Twp	445	383	61	889	62	50.06%	43.08%	6.97%
Clarence Twp	532	430	57	1,019	102	52.21%	42.20%	10.01%
Clarendon Twp	298	214	31	543	84	54.88%	39.41%	15.47%
Convis Twp	394	353	49	796	41	49.50%	44.35%	5.15%
Eckford Twp	421	275	27	723	146	58.23%	38.04%	20.19%
Emmett Twp	2,490	2,894	263	5,647	-404	44.09%	51.25%	-7.15%
Fredonia Twp	410	403	53	866	7	47.34%	46.54%	0.81%
Homer Twp	485	530	54	1,069	-45	45.37%	49.58%	-4.21%
Lee Twp	287	204	32	523	83	54.88%	39.01%	15.87%
Marengo Twp	525	451	54	1,030	74	50.97%	43.79%	7.18%
City of Marshall	1,552	1,931	156	3,639	-379	42.65%	53.06%	-10.41%
Marshall Twp	945	847	76	1,868	98	50.59%	45.34%	5.25%
Newton Twp	786	683	54	1,523	103	51.61%	44.85%	6.76%
Pennfield Twp	2,065	2,352	217	4,634	-287	44.56%	50.76%	-6.19%
Sheridan Twp	385	380	49	814	5	47.30%	46.68%	0.61%
City of Springfield	600	1,132	79	1,811	-532	33.13%	62.51%	-29.38%
Tekonsha Twp	363	360	44	767	3	47.33%	46.94%	0.39%
Eaton County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp	822	636	97	1,555	186	52.86%	40.90%	11.96%
Benton Twp	783	687	116	1,586	96	49.37%	43.32%	6.05%
Brookfield Twp	407	301	56	764	106	53.27%	39.40%	13.87%
Carmel Twp	799	639	71	1,509	160	52.95%	42.35%	10.60%
City of Charlotte	1,685	1,997	246	3,928	-312	42.90%	50.84%	-7.94%
Chester Twp	536	382	77	995	154	53.87%	38.39%	15.48%
Delta Twp	7,364	9,639	884	17,887	-2275	41.17%	53.89%	-12.72%
City of Eaton Rapids	980	1,137	133	2,250	-157	43.56%	50.53%	-6.98%
Eaton Rapids Twp	1,060	874	170	2,104	186	50.38%	41.54%	8.84%
Eaton Twp	1,181	945	155	2,281	236	51.78%	41.43%	10.35%
City of Grand Ledge	1,709	2,109	245	4,063	-400	42.06%	51.91%	-9.84%
Hamlin Twp	814	808	106	1,728	6	47.11%	46.76%	0.35%
Kalamo Twp	416	387	61	864	29	48.15%	44.79%	3.36%
City of Lansing	300	1,565	82	1,947	-1265	15.41%	80.38%	-64.97%
City of Olivet	222	271	32	525	-49	42.29%	51.62%	-9.33%
Oneida Twp	1,204	1,074	109	2,387	130	50.44%	44.99%	5.45%
City of Potterville	504	474	68	1,046	30	48.18%	45.32%	2.87%
Roxand Twp	513	401	62	976	112	52.56%	41.09%	11.48%
Sunfield Twp	568	432	73	1,073	136	52.94%	40.26%	12.67%
Vermontville Twp	481	430	58	969	51	49.64%	44.38%	5.26%
Walton Twp	585	464	71	1,120	121	52.23%	41.43%	10.80%
Windsor Twp	1,945	2,003	246	4,194	-58	46.38%	47.76%	-1.38%
Hillsdale County	12,015	6,981	993	19,989	5034	60.11%	34.92%	25.18%
Jackson County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	3,460	3,912	391	7,763	-452	44.57%	50.39%	-5.82%
Columbia Twp	2,171	1,865	188	4,224	306	51.40%	44.15%	7.24%
Concord Twp	715	590	71	1,376	125	51.96%	42.88%	9.08%
Grass Lake Twp	1,646	1,247	160	3,053	399	53.91%	40.85%	13.07%
Hanover Twp	1,034	777	88	1,899	257	54.45%	40.92%	13.53%
Henrietta Twp	1,092	1,082	134	2,308	10	47.31%	46.88%	0.43%
City of Jackson	4,150	8,260	546	12,956	-4110	32.03%	63.75%	-31.72%
Leoni Twp	2,743	3,201	391	6,335	-458	43.30%	50.53%	-7.23%
Liberty Twp	960	689	67	1,716	271	55.94%	40.15%	15.79%
Napoleon Twp	1,630	1,606	178	3,414	24	47.74%	47.04%	0.70%
Norvell Twp	858	744	85	1,687	114	50.86%	44.10%	6.76%
Parma Twp	616	566	66	1,248	50	49.36%	45.35%	4.01%
Pulaski Twp	577	359	42	978	218	59.00%	36.71%	22.29%
Rives Twp	1,232	953	116	2,301	279	53.54%	41.42%	12.13%
Sandstone Twp	1,129	726	112	1,967	403	57.40%	36.91%	20.49%
Spring Arbor Twp	2,369	1,332	135	3,836	1037	61.76%	34.72%	27.03%
Springport Twp	518	395	48	961	123	53.90%	41.10%	12.80%
Summit Twp	6,009	5,402	416	11,827	607	50.81%	45.68%	5.13%
Tompkins Twp	647	583	89	1,319	64	49.05%	44.20%	4.85%
Waterloo Twp	642	689	84	1,415	-47	45.37%	48.69%	-3.32%
Lenawee County	22,953	22,019	1724	46,696	934	49.15%	47.15%	2.00%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	523	428	40	991	95	52.77%	43.19%	9.59%
City of Chelsea	1,156	1,567	154	2,877	-411	40.18%	54.47%	-14.29%
Dexter Twp	1,623	1,925	146	3,694	-302	43.94%	52.11%	-8.18%
Freedom Twp	461	397	43	901	64	51.17%	44.06%	7.10%
Lima Twp	921	854	109	1,884	67	48.89%	45.33%	3.56%
Lodi Twp	1,905	1,551	141	3,597	354	52.96%	43.12%	9.84%
Lyndon Twp	687	769	74	1,530	-82	44.90%	50.26%	-5.36%
Manchester Twp	1,197	1,273	139	2,609	-76	45.88%	48.79%	-2.91%
Northfield Twp	1,845	2,119	291	4,255	-274	43.36%	49.80%	-6.44%
Salem Twp	1,858	1,349	207	3,414	509	54.42%	39.51%	14.91%
City of Saline	2,235	2,484	237	4,956	-249	45.10%	50.12%	-5.02%
Saline Twp	556	416	47	1,019	140	54.56%	40.82%	13.74%
Scio Twp	3,655	6,611	457	10,723	-2956	34.09%	61.65%	-27.57%
Sharon Twp	542	447	49	1,038	95	52.22%	43.06%	9.15%
Sylvan Twp	896	877	100	1,873	19	47.84%	46.82%	1.01%
Webster Twp	1,849	1,971	168	3,988	-122	46.36%	49.42%	-3.06%
Total	149,748	157,213	15,272	322,233	-7465	46.47%	48.79%	-2.32%

Nobody reached 49%. Breaking it down. This does remove the 400 votes from Scio Twp, that's only affecting the presidential numbers making them slightly more democrat than it is. I'm going to start with the Obama numbers first, and work backward to 2000 instead of the other way around since I want to compare Walberg v McCain.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Branch County	9,534	8,413	338	18,285	1121	52.14%	46.01%	6.13%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Albion	719	2,584	36	3,339	-1865	21.53%	77.39%	-55.86%
Albion Twp	301	283	6	590	18	51.02%	47.97%	3.05%
Athens Twp	660	564	33	1,257	96	52.51%	44.87%	7.64%
City of Battle Creek	8,916	13,975	320	23,211	-5059	38.41%	60.21%	-21.80%
Bedford Twp	2,128	2,583	85	4,796	-455	44.37%	53.86%	-9.49%
Burlington Twp	488	398	21	907	90	53.80%	43.88%	9.92%
Clarence Twp	574	439	18	1,031	135	55.67%	42.58%	13.09%
Clarendon Twp	315	231	14	560	84	56.25%	41.25%	15.00%
Convis Twp	439	357	21	817	82	53.73%	43.70%	10.04%
Eckford Twp	452	263	15	730	189	61.92%	36.03%	25.89%
Emmett Twp	2,848	2,840	91	5,779	8	49.28%	49.14%	0.14%
Fredonia Twp	471	392	17	880	79	53.52%	44.55%	8.98%
Homer Twp	516	561	28	1,105	-45	46.70%	50.77%	-4.07%
Lee Twp	300	220	15	535	80	56.07%	41.12%	14.95%
Marengo Twp	581	463	22	1,066	118	54.50%	43.43%	11.07%
City of Marshall	1,733	1,931	62	3,726	-198	46.51%	51.83%	-5.31%
Marshall Twp	1,074	807	34	1,915	267	56.08%	42.14%	13.94%
Newton Twp	886	647	29	1,562	239	56.72%	41.42%	15.30%
Pennfield Twp	2,405	2,218	82	4,705	187	51.12%	47.14%	3.97%
Sheridan Twp	412	390	27	829	22	49.70%	47.04%	2.65%
City of Springfield	689	1,132	29	1,850	-443	37.24%	61.19%	-23.95%
Tekonsha Twp	357	398	22	777	-41	45.95%	51.22%	-5.28%
Eaton County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp	891	679	31	1,601	212	55.65%	42.41%	13.24%
Benton Twp	817	766	38	1,621	51	50.40%	47.25%	3.15%
Brookfield Twp	414	356	21	791	58	52.34%	45.01%	7.33%
Carmel Twp	838	690	28	1,556	148	53.86%	44.34%	9.51%
City of Charlotte	1,756	2,234	74	4,064	-478	43.21%	54.97%	-11.76%
Chester Twp	569	428	22	1,019	141	55.84%	42.00%	13.84%
Delta Twp	7,632	10,602	260	18,494	-2970	41.27%	57.33%	-16.06%
City of Eaton Rapids	1,024	1,257	44	2,325	-233	44.04%	54.06%	-10.02%
Eaton Rapids Twp	1,092	1,035	43	2,170	57	50.32%	47.70%	2.63%
Eaton Twp	1,228	1,090	29	2,347	138	52.32%	46.44%	5.88%
City of Grand Ledge	1,784	2,352	72	4,208	-568	42.40%	55.89%	-13.50%
Hamlin Twp	835	909	44	1,788	-74	46.70%	50.84%	-4.14%
Kalamo Twp	453	419	21	893	34	50.73%	46.92%	3.81%
City of Lansing	251	1,740	19	2,010	-1489	12.49%	86.57%	-74.08%
City of Olivet	230	301	10	541	-71	42.51%	55.64%	-13.12%
Oneida Twp	1,237	1,193	33	2,463	44	50.22%	48.44%	1.79%
City of Potterville	497	569	31	1,097	-72	45.31%	51.87%	-6.56%
Roxand Twp	531	470	16	1,017	61	52.21%	46.21%	6.00%
Sunfield Twp	612	464	32	1,108	148	55.23%	41.88%	13.36%
Vermontville Twp	506	488	16	1,010	18	50.10%	48.32%	1.78%
Walton Twp	607	518	19	1,144	89	53.06%	45.28%	7.78%
Windsor Twp	2,096	2,182	74	4,352	-86	48.16%	50.14%	-1.98%
Hillsdale County	11,221	8,765	463	20,449	2456	54.87%	42.86%	12.01%
Jackson County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	3,646	4,204	136	7,986	-558	45.65%	52.64%	-6.99%
Columbia Twp	2,265	2,011	72	4,348	254	52.09%	46.25%	5.84%
Concord Twp	758	633	20	1,411	125	53.72%	44.86%	8.86%
Grass Lake Twp	1,659	1,430	53	3,142	229	52.80%	45.51%	7.29%
Hanover Twp	1,096	843	27	1,966	253	55.75%	42.88%	12.87%
Henrietta Twp	1,161	1,153	45	2,359	8	49.22%	48.88%	0.34%
City of Jackson	4,162	8,856	218	13,236	-4694	31.44%	66.91%	-35.46%
Leoni Twp	2,930	3,387	172	6,489	-457	45.15%	52.20%	-7.04%
Liberty Twp	1,015	713	31	1,759	302	57.70%	40.53%	17.17%
Napoleon Twp	1,733	1,712	69	3,514	21	49.32%	48.72%	0.60%
Norvell Twp	887	815	39	1,741	72	50.95%	46.81%	4.14%
Parma Twp	629	618	27	1,274	11	49.37%	48.51%	0.86%
Pulaski Twp	579	405	20	1,004	174	57.67%	40.34%	17.33%
Rives Twp	1,317	1,005	48	2,370	312	55.57%	42.41%	13.16%
Sandstone Twp	1,203	782	49	2,034	421	59.14%	38.45%	20.70%
Spring Arbor Twp	2,460	1,418	49	3,927	1042	62.64%	36.11%	26.53%
Springport Twp	551	425	28	1,004	126	54.88%	42.33%	12.55%
Summit Twp	6,281	5,652	176	12,109	629	51.87%	46.68%	5.19%
Tompkins Twp	710	631	39	1,380	79	51.45%	45.72%	5.72%
Waterloo Twp	650	787	23	1,460	-137	44.52%	53.90%	-9.38%
Lenawee County	22,225	24,640	869	47,734	-2415	46.56%	51.62%	-5.06%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	526	481	22	1,029	45	51.12%	46.74%	4.37%
City of Chelsea	1,214	1,748	40	3,002	-534	40.44%	58.23%	-17.79%
Dexter Twp	1,730	2,064	42	3,836	-334	45.10%	53.81%	-8.71%
Freedom Twp	481	428	11	920	53	52.28%	46.52%	5.76%
Lima Twp	973	973	35	1,981	0	49.12%	49.12%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1,894	1,803	43	3,740	91	50.64%	48.21%	2.43%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	29	1,607	-108	45.74%	52.46%	-6.72%
Manchester Twp	1,241	1,424	42	2,707	-183	45.84%	52.60%	-6.76%
Northfield Twp	2,109	2,310	93	4,512	-201	46.74%	51.20%	-4.45%
Salem Twp	2,067	1,510	53	3,630	557	56.94%	41.60%	15.34%
City of Saline	2,221	2,906	86	5,213	-685	42.61%	55.75%	-13.14%
Saline Twp	539	507	16	1,062	32	50.75%	47.74%	3.01%
Scio Twp	3,772	7,709	128	11,609	-3937	32.49%	66.41%	-33.91%
Sharon Twp	556	503	25	1,084	53	51.29%	46.40%	4.89%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	27	1,942	-77	47.32%	51.29%	-3.96%
Webster Twp	1,911	2,186	58	4,155	-275	45.99%	52.61%	-6.62%
Total	154,724	172,107	5,765	332,596	-17383	46.52%	51.75%	-5.23%

Breaking things down further. You do get a dropoff in voting as lots of people vote for "blank" in downticket races. Percentages are bigger.

Branch County
Walberg - 55.58%, Schauer 38.74% - 17,752 votes, 2988 vote spread
McCain - 52.14%, Obama 46.01% - 18,285 votes , 1121 vote spread

Branch is important despite its small size. Republicans need big percentages there. 7400 votes made the difference in 2008 for Schauer.

Calhoun County (Schauer's home)
Schauer - 56.00%, Walberg 39.81% - 60113 votes, -9735 spread
Obama - 54.35%, McCain 44.00% - 61697 votes, -6412 spread.

Mark Schauer is from Calhoun County and historically has ran well ahead of the ticket. This in fact made the difference in the race. 4% 3rd party defections, combined with Schauer's 2% increase here, along with Lenawee County's closer than expected results. Obama made the difference there I'm sure. Two words. Adrian College.

Eaton County
Schauer - 49.60%, Walberg - 44.62% - 55751 votes, -2777 spread
Obama - 53.35%, McCain  - 44.95% - 57,619 votes, -4842 spread

Eaton County has been treading blue, and much of that has to do with Lansing and it's suburbs. Delta Township, Windsor Twp, Grand Ledge, and the largely commuter city of Charlotte. A lot of the people there are government workers. Bush actually improved in 2004 over 2000 there, but 06 and 08 was rough waters for any republican in Eaton County not named Rick Jones. It will vote for some very socially conservative people (Jones, Tabor), but then vote for Granholm twice. The economic issues ran the show there.
.
Hillsdale County:
Walberg - 60.11%, Schauer - 34.92% - 19989 votes, 5034 vote spread
McCain - 54.87%, Obama - 42.86% - 20449 votes, 2456 vote spread

Hillsdale is much more conservative than it is Republican. Walberg always overperforms in Hillsdale, and this was no exception. It's a small county, but critical for GOP success, as its vote spread is often larger than counties over twice its size.

Jackson County:
Obama - 50.30%, McCain - 47.90% - 74513 votes, -1788 vote spread
Schauer - 48.19%, Walberg - 47.12% - 72583 votes, -780 vote spread

Usually as Jackson County goes, so does the district. It was critical to Walberg's 2006 win, both in the primary and general. It turned on him in 08, and much of that was due to the City of Jackson itself. This was also part of Schauer's state senate district.

Lenawee County
Walberg -  49.15%, Schauer - 47.15% - 46696 votes, 934 vote spread
Obama -  51.62%, McCain - 46.56% - 47734 votes, -2415 vote spread

Walberg's secret to success, both in 06 and in the past during his wins in Lenawee County the same time as Bill Clinton, was due to getting his core populist conservatives out to vote. Schauer was able to counter that here with Adrian College. Adrian leans democrat, but was much more democrat in 2008 than normal, and it was largely straight ticket. Lenawee saved him in 2006, and in I believe 1996. This time, it wasn't enough.

Washtenaw County
Schauer - 50.74%, Walberg - 44.40% - 49349 votes, -3129 vote spread
Obama - 54.57%, McCain - 43.99% - 52029 votes, -5503 vote spread

This is the most democrat part of the district outside of Calhoun County. Scio Township leads the way and is not friendly to most Republicans. Dexter, Saline, and Chelsea are treading more and more blue as well. If the Republicans stop the bleeding here in 2010, our chances at picking up this seat greatly increase.

2004 was very good to republicans in most of this district. Bush lead the way here, and carried a couple of state rep candidates with him. He actually won Calhoun County, as well as the Eaton and Washtenaw portions of the district.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Branch County	10,784	7,004	179	17,967	3780	60.02%	38.98%	21.04%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Albion	896	2,174	41	3,111	-1278	28.80%	69.88%	-41.08%
Albion Twp	336	265	8	609	71	55.17%	43.51%	11.66%
Athens Twp	784	499	9	1,292	285	60.68%	38.62%	22.06%
City of Battle Creek	10,314	11,583	238	22,135	-1269	46.60%	52.33%	-5.73%
Bedford Twp	2,262	2,264	53	4,579	-2	49.40%	49.44%	-0.04%
Burlington Twp	494	389	14	897	105	55.07%	43.37%	11.71%
Clarence Twp	640	376	12	1,028	264	62.26%	36.58%	25.68%
Clarendon Twp	335	221	5	561	114	59.71%	39.39%	20.32%
Convis Twp	500	355	19	874	145	57.21%	40.62%	16.59%
Eckford Twp	460	255	6	721	205	63.80%	35.37%	28.43%
Emmett Twp	3,171	2,508	56	5,735	663	55.29%	43.73%	11.56%
Fredonia Twp	532	372	16	920	160	57.83%	40.43%	17.39%
Homer Twp	653	474	11	1,138	179	57.38%	41.65%	15.73%
Lee Twp	339	214	5	558	125	60.75%	38.35%	22.40%
Marengo Twp	642	380	12	1,034	262	62.09%	36.75%	25.34%
City of Marshall	2,012	1,713	36	3,761	299	53.50%	45.55%	7.95%
Marshall Twp	1,098	723	17	1,838	375	59.74%	39.34%	20.40%
Newton Twp	889	621	14	1,524	268	58.33%	40.75%	17.59%
Pennfield Twp	2,680	1,969	64	4,713	711	56.86%	41.78%	15.09%
Sheridan Twp	428	394	14	836	34	51.20%	47.13%	4.07%
City of Springfield	877	1,005	20	1,902	-128	46.11%	52.84%	-6.73%
Tekonsha Twp	454	364	12	830	90	54.70%	43.86%	10.84%
Eaton County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp	864	571	15	1,450	293	59.59%	39.38%	20.21%
Benton Twp	921	602	11	1,534	319	60.04%	39.24%	20.80%
Brookfield Twp	427	268	17	712	159	59.97%	37.64%	22.33%
Carmel Twp	955	587	29	1,571	368	60.79%	37.36%	23.42%
City of Charlotte	2,089	1,784	51	3,924	305	53.24%	45.46%	7.77%
Chester Twp	615	367	8	990	248	62.12%	37.07%	25.05%
Delta Twp	9,005	8,891	158	18,054	114	49.88%	49.25%	0.63%
City of Eaton Rapids	1,213	1,053	28	2,294	160	52.88%	45.90%	6.97%
Eaton Rapids Twp	1,246	868	12	2,126	378	58.61%	40.83%	17.78%
Eaton Twp	1,455	858	11	2,324	597	62.61%	36.92%	25.69%
City of Grand Ledge	2,153	1,931	51	4,135	222	52.07%	46.70%	5.37%
Hamlin Twp	925	694	20	1,639	231	56.44%	42.34%	14.09%
Kalamo Twp	496	339	19	854	157	58.08%	39.70%	18.38%
City of Lansing	411	1,547	17	1,975	-1136	20.81%	78.33%	-57.52%
City of Olivet	260	186	15	461	74	56.40%	40.35%	16.05%
Oneida Twp	1,330	977	19	2,326	353	57.18%	42.00%	15.18%
City of Potterville	584	447	9	1,040	137	56.15%	42.98%	13.17%
Roxand Twp	562	386	11	959	176	58.60%	40.25%	18.35%
Sunfield Twp	717	407	10	1,134	310	63.23%	35.89%	27.34%
Vermontville Twp	584	378	6	968	206	60.33%	39.05%	21.28%
Walton Twp	640	363	16	1,019	277	62.81%	35.62%	27.18%
Windsor Twp	2,329	1,907	41	4,277	422	54.45%	44.59%	9.87%
Hillsdale County	12,804	7,123	289	20,216	5681	63.34%	35.23%	28.10%
Jackson County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	4,258	3,454	70	7,782	804	54.72%	44.38%	10.33%
Columbia Twp	2,532	1,693	36	4,261	839	59.42%	39.73%	19.69%
Concord Twp	843	483	18	1,344	360	62.72%	35.94%	26.79%
Grass Lake Twp	1,684	1,132	41	2,857	552	58.94%	39.62%	19.32%
Hanover Twp	1,199	745	13	1,957	454	61.27%	38.07%	23.20%
Henrietta Twp	1,196	952	24	2,172	244	55.06%	43.83%	11.23%
City of Jackson	5,257	7,142	138	12,537	-1885	41.93%	56.97%	-15.04%
Leoni Twp	3,216	2,971	85	6,272	245	51.28%	47.37%	3.91%
Liberty Twp	1,106	610	11	1,727	496	64.04%	35.32%	28.72%
Napoleon Twp	1,893	1,494	35	3,422	399	55.32%	43.66%	11.66%
Norvell Twp	962	774	17	1,753	188	54.88%	44.15%	10.72%
Parma Twp	714	523	11	1,248	191	57.21%	41.91%	15.30%
Pulaski Twp	635	363	14	1,012	272	62.75%	35.87%	26.88%
Rives Twp	1,464	809	28	2,301	655	63.62%	35.16%	28.47%
Sandstone Twp	1,293	626	20	1,939	667	66.68%	32.28%	34.40%
Spring Arbor Twp	2,763	1,105	36	3,904	1658	70.77%	28.30%	42.47%
Springport Twp	577	332	15	924	245	62.45%	35.93%	26.52%
Summit Twp	6,894	4,579	102	11,575	2315	59.56%	39.56%	20.00%
Tompkins Twp	772	537	8	1,317	235	58.62%	40.77%	17.84%
Waterloo Twp	771	701	13	1,485	70	51.92%	47.21%	4.71%
Lenawee County	25,675	20,787	550	47,012	4888	54.61%	44.22%	10.40%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	550	352	7	909	198	60.51%	38.72%	21.78%
City of Chelsea	1,300	1,490	34	2,824	-190	46.03%	52.76%	-6.73%
Dexter Twp	1,909	1,672	43	3,624	237	52.68%	46.14%	6.54%
Freedom Twp	481	405	13	899	76	53.50%	45.05%	8.45%
Lima Twp	926	709	14	1,649	217	56.16%	43.00%	13.16%
Lodi Twp	2,104	1,519	25	3,648	585	57.68%	41.64%	16.04%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	15	1,545	94	52.56%	46.47%	6.08%
Manchester Twp	1,299	1,168	28	2,495	131	52.06%	46.81%	5.25%
Northfield Twp	2,352	2,027	55	4,434	325	53.04%	45.71%	7.33%
Salem Twp	2,130	1,330	52	3,512	800	60.65%	37.87%	22.78%
City of Saline	2,656	2,418	44	5,118	238	51.90%	47.25%	4.65%
Saline Twp	612	464	9	1,085	148	56.41%	42.76%	13.64%
Scio Twp	4,244	6,262	90	10,596	-2018	40.05%	59.10%	-19.04%
Sharon Twp	630	440	10	1,080	190	58.33%	40.74%	17.59%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	19	1,821	164	53.98%	44.98%	9.01%
Webster Twp	2,097	1,707	40	3,844	390	54.55%	44.41%	10.15%
Total	174,954	143,968	3,507	322,429	30986	54.26%	44.65%	9.61%

Here's the 2000 numbers.

2000 Election	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Branch County	8,743	6,691	349	15,783	2052	55.40%	42.39%	13.00%
Calhoun County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Albion	784	2,022	65	2,871	-1238	27.31%	70.43%	-43.12%
Albion Twp	291	222	23	536	69	54.29%	41.42%	12.87%
Athens Twp	636	422	28	1,086	214	58.56%	38.86%	19.71%
City of Battle Creek	8,517	10,235	484	19,236	-1718	44.28%	53.21%	-8.93%
Bedford Twp	1,905	2,233	111	4,249	-328	44.83%	52.55%	-7.72%
Burlington Twp	426	311	24	761	115	55.98%	40.87%	15.11%
Clarence Twp	550	377	32	959	173	57.35%	39.31%	18.04%
Clarendon Twp	252	176	6	434	76	58.06%	40.55%	17.51%
Convis Twp	453	266	12	731	187	61.97%	36.39%	25.58%
Eckford Twp	381	256	7	644	125	59.16%	39.75%	19.41%
Emmett Twp	2,518	2,339	130	4,987	179	50.49%	46.90%	3.59%
Fredonia Twp	418	337	28	783	81	53.38%	43.04%	10.34%
Homer Twp	487	447	29	963	40	50.57%	46.42%	4.15%
Lee Twp	291	192	14	497	99	58.55%	38.63%	19.92%
Marengo Twp	546	365	29	940	181	58.09%	38.83%	19.26%
City of Marshall	1,704	1,605	132	3,441	99	49.52%	46.64%	2.88%
Marshall Twp	906	681	37	1,624	225	55.79%	41.93%	13.85%
Newton Twp	735	609	35	1,379	126	53.30%	44.16%	9.14%
Pennfield Twp	2,202	1,874	111	4,187	328	52.59%	44.76%	7.83%
Sheridan Twp	365	362	24	751	3	48.60%	48.20%	0.40%
City of Springfield	646	926	49	1,621	-280	39.85%	57.13%	-17.27%
Tekonsha Twp	349	338	16	703	11	49.64%	48.08%	1.56%
Eaton County				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bellevue Twp	690	580	30	1,300	110	53.08%	44.62%	8.46%
Benton Twp	747	645	24	1,416	102	52.75%	45.55%	7.20%
Brookfield Twp	343	260	22	625	83	54.88%	41.60%	13.28%
Carmel Twp	732	556	21	1,309	176	55.92%	42.48%	13.45%
City of Charlotte	1,600	1,582	89	3,271	18	48.91%	48.36%	0.55%
Chester Twp	524	363	25	912	161	57.46%	39.80%	17.65%
Delta Twp	8,076	7,902	398	16,376	174	49.32%	48.25%	1.06%
City of Eaton Rapids	950	1,019	70	2,039	-69	46.59%	49.98%	-3.38%
Eaton Rapids Twp	949	805	58	1,812	144	52.37%	44.43%	7.95%
Eaton Twp	1,202	876	49	2,127	326	56.51%	41.18%	15.33%
City of Grand Ledge	1,857	1,794	108	3,759	63	49.40%	47.73%	1.68%
Hamlin Twp	728	597	34	1,359	131	53.57%	43.93%	9.64%
Kalamo Twp	380	307	21	708	73	53.67%	43.36%	10.31%
City of Lansing	347	1,351	28	1,726	-1004	20.10%	78.27%	-58.17%
City of Olivet	217	185	21	423	32	51.30%	43.74%	7.57%
Oneida Twp	1,113	864	53	2,030	249	54.83%	42.56%	12.27%
City of Potterville	393	374	20	787	19	49.94%	47.52%	2.41%
Roxand Twp	531	350	32	913	181	58.16%	38.34%	19.82%
Sunfield Twp	600	360	22	982	240	61.10%	36.66%	24.44%
Vermontville Twp	485	346	13	844	139	57.46%	41.00%	16.47%
Walton Twp	467	349	25	841	118	55.53%	41.50%	14.03%
Windsor Twp	1,872	1,746	96	3,714	126	50.40%	47.01%	3.39%
Hillsdale County	10,483	6,495	497	17,475	3988	59.99%	37.17%	22.82%
Jackson County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	3,249	3,202	144	6,595	47	49.26%	48.55%	0.71%
Columbia Twp	2,077	1,541	116	3,734	536	55.62%	41.27%	14.35%
Concord Twp	713	421	37	1,171	292	60.89%	35.95%	24.94%
Grass Lake Twp	1,242	939	82	2,263	303	54.88%	41.49%	13.39%
Hanover Twp	980	665	30	1,675	315	58.51%	39.70%	18.81%
Henrietta Twp	927	798	52	1,777	129	52.17%	44.91%	7.26%
City of Jackson	4,259	6,431	310	11,000	-2172	38.72%	58.46%	-19.75%
Leoni Twp	2,474	2,703	140	5,317	-229	46.53%	50.84%	-4.31%
Liberty Twp	845	546	37	1,428	299	59.17%	38.24%	20.94%
Napoleon Twp	1,521	1,477	87	3,085	44	49.30%	47.88%	1.43%
Norvell Twp	715	661	43	1,419	54	50.39%	46.58%	3.81%
Parma Twp	586	497	50	1,133	89	51.72%	43.87%	7.86%
Pulaski Twp	473	313	24	810	160	58.40%	38.64%	19.75%
Rives Twp	1,229	802	43	2,074	427	59.26%	38.67%	20.59%
Sandstone Twp	1,023	576	35	1,634	447	62.61%	35.25%	27.36%
Spring Arbor Twp	2,262	1,032	64	3,358	1230	67.36%	30.73%	36.63%
Springport Twp	441	330	29	800	111	55.13%	41.25%	13.88%
Summit Twp	5,800	4,180	325	10,305	1620	56.28%	40.56%	15.72%
Tompkins Twp	652	485	19	1,156	167	56.40%	41.96%	14.45%
Waterloo Twp	598	561	51	1,210	37	49.42%	46.36%	3.06%
Lenawee County	20,681	18,365	1047	40,093	2316	51.58%	45.81%	5.78%
Washtenaw County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	422	330	22	774	92	54.52%	42.64%	11.89%
City of Chelsea				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dexter Twp	1,515	1,311	80	2,906	204	52.13%	45.11%	7.02%
Freedom Twp	441	345	34	820	96	53.78%	42.07%	11.71%
Lima Twp	959	774	81	1,814	185	52.87%	42.67%	10.20%
Lodi Twp	1,849	1,178	89	3,116	671	59.34%	37.80%	21.53%
Lyndon Twp	639	565	53	1,257	74	50.84%	44.95%	5.89%
Manchester Twp	1,029	952	68	2,049	77	50.22%	46.46%	3.76%
Northfield Twp	1,784	1,683	116	3,583	101	49.79%	46.97%	2.82%
Salem Twp	1,646	1,108	86	2,840	538	57.96%	39.01%	18.94%
City of Saline	2,063	1,939	135	4,137	124	49.87%	46.87%	3.00%
Saline Twp	406	245	31	682	161	59.53%	35.92%	23.61%
Scio Twp	3,667	4,537	278	8,482	-870	43.23%	53.49%	-10.26%
Sharon Twp	630	440	10	1,080	190	58.33%	40.74%	17.59%
Sylvan Twp	1,573	1,598	127	3,298	-25	47.70%	48.45%	-0.76%
Webster Twp	1,460	1,225	67	2,752	235	53.05%	44.51%	8.54%
Total	142,221	127,747	7,573	277,541	14474	51.24%	46.03%	5.22%

Breaking down the counties in presidential years.

Branch County
2008 - McCain - 52.14%, Obama 46.01% - 18,285 votes , 1121 vote spread
2004 - Bush - 60.02%, Kerry 38.98% - 17967 votes, 3780 vote spread
2000 - Bush - 55.40%, Gore 42.39% - 15783 votes, 2052 vote spread

Calhoun County
2008 - Obama - 54.35%, McCain 44.00% - 61697 votes, -6412 spread.
2004 - Bush 50.82%, Kerry 48.05%, 60596 votes, 1678 vote spread
2000 - Gore 49.82%, Bush 47.51%, 53383 votes, -1233 vote spread

Eaton County
2008 - Obama - 53.35%, McCain  - 44.95% - 57,619 votes, -4842 spread
2004 - Bush 53.40%, Kerry 45.57% - 55766 votes, 4370 vote spread
2000 - Bush 50.34%, Gore 47.11% - 49273 votes, 1592 vote spread

Hillsdale County
2008 - McCain - 54.87%, Obama - 42.86% - 20449 votes, 2456 vote spread
2004 - Bush 63.34%, Kerry 35.23% - 20216 votes, 5681 vote spread
2000 - Bush 59.99%, Gore 37.17% - 17475 votes, 3988 vote spread

Jackson County
2008 - Obama - 50.30%, McCain - 47.90% - 74513 votes, -1788 vote spread
2004 - Bush 55.76%, Kerry 43.22% - 71789 votes, 9004 vote spread
2000 - Bush 51.77%, Gore 45.46% - 61944 votes, 3906 vote spread

Lenawee County
2008 - Obama -  51.62%, McCain - 46.56% - 47734 votes, -2415 vote spread
2004 - Bush - 54.61%, Kerry 44.22% - 47012 votes, 4888 vote spread
2000 - Bush - 51.58%, Gore 45.81% - 40093 votes, 2316 vote spread

Washtenaw County (Chelsea in 2000 was not incorporated as a city, hence the Sylvan Twp numbers being what they are)
2008 - Obama - 54.57%, McCain - 43.99% - 52029 votes, -5503 vote spread
2004 - Bush 51.11%, Kerry 47.88% - 49083 votes, 1585 vote spread.
2000 - Bush 50.72%, Gore 46.05% - 3950 votes, 1853 vote spread

The farm club here is very competitive.

St Senate 24th - Covers Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties. Eaton County is in the 7th district. It's a solid GOP district with Barry and Allegan County leading the way, although Eaton County is becoming more and more Lansing influenced.This is an open seat with Patti Birkholz termed out.

St Senate 24th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Birkholz/Royston	64,737	46,480		111,217	18257	58.21%	41.79%	16.42%
02 - Birkholz/Birdson	57,906	32,170		90,076	25736	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%

St. Senate 19th - Covers All of Calhoun and most of Jackson County - Mike Nofs won the open seat in a special election to replace Mark Schauer. It's a true swing district. I did a preview of the 19th before the special election that lays this district out in detail. 

St Senate 19th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
09 - Nofs/Griffin	20327	11385	1543	33,255	8942	61.12%	34.24%	26.89%
06 - Schauer/Fulton	32078	50612		82,690	-18534	38.79%	61.21%	-22.41%
02 - Schauer/Mortimer	32,281	39,673		71,954	-7392	44.86%	55.14%	-10.27%

St. Senate 18th - Covers the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Twp, Augusta Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, a small portion of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Superior Twp, Sylvan Twp, City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County. This is one of the most democrat state senate seats in the state. Most of this is in the 15th District (Dingell), but some of this is in the 7th.

St Senate 18th	GOP	Dem
06 - Kopinski/Brater	29,075	72,774	3	101,852	-43699	28.55%	71.45%	-42.90%
02 - Darr/Brater	27,726	52,912	2635	83,273	-25186	33.30%	63.54%	-30.25%

St. Senate 17th - Covers all of Monroe County, Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell, and Summit Twps in Jackson County, and Bridgwater Twp, Lodi Twp, Manchester Twp, city of Milan, Pittsfield Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, and York Twp in Washtenaw County. This is another swing district. Monroe County is a swing county that has gone democrat more than republican. The rest of the area swings as well, although Washtenaw County portion is more democrat and the Jackson County portion more republican, although neither overwhelmingly so (Jackson thanks to Leoni, Washtenaw, thanks to everything but Pittsfield).The Jackson County and some of the Washtenaw County portion is in the 7th district. The rest is in the 15th. Randy Richardville is the incumbent who won in the tough 2006 year.

St Senate 17th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Richardville/Schockman	52113	45445		97,558	6668	53.42%	46.58%	6.83%
02 - Hammerstrom/LeMasters	44773	30262		75,035	14511	59.67%	40.33%	19.34%

St Senate 16th - Covers Lenawee Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph Counties. - Most of this district outside of St Joe is also in the 7th district. This is a generally solid GOP district, but one of the Spades is running for this seat. That will make this more competitive than it otherwise would have been. Dudley lost bad in 02, but won his county, and now has three terms as rep. Don't sleep on this one, despite the 60%+ numbers.

St Senate 16th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Brown/Christner	52,699	28,128		80,827	24571	65.20%	34.80%	30.40%
02 - Brown/Spade	39894	25604		65,498	14290	60.91%	39.09%	21.82%

St Rep 71st - Covers almost all of Eaton County outside Brookfield Twp, City of Eaton Rapids, and Hamlin Twp.Rick Jones is term limited, and the dems are going to probably take a shot at this district. Don't let the Jones numbers fool you. This will be a tough race unless the GOP has as good of candidate as they did in 02.

St Rep 71st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Jones/Eagle	29,171	21,068		50,239	8103	58.06%	41.94%	16.13%
06 - Jones/Braatz	23,713	16,833		40,546	6880	58.48%	41.52%	16.97%
04 - Jones/LaTourette	28,643	18,628	1098	48,369	10015	59.22%	38.51%	20.71%
02 - Tabor/Freeman	19,326	15,383		34,709	3943	55.68%	44.32%	11.36%

St Rep 65th - Covers Brookfield Twp, City of Eaton Rapids, and Hamin Twp in Eaton County, and Blackman Twp, Columbia Twp, Grass Lake Twp, Henrietta Twp, Leoni Twp, Liberty Twp, Norvell Twp, Rives Twp, Springport Twp, Tompkins Twp, Waterloo Twp, and Cambridge Twp in Jackson County, along with Cambridge Twp in Lenawee County. This is a swing seat with a slight Republican leaning. It is now vacant, and was held by the popular democrat Mike Simpson before his untimely death.

St Rep 65th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Snell/Simpson	14,759	25,451		40,210	-10692	36.70%	63.30%	-26.59%
06 - L. Mortimer/Simpson	15,123	16,723		31,846	-1600	47.49%	52.51%	-5.02%
04 - L. Mortimer/Simpson	20,014	18,915		38,929	1099	51.41%	48.59%	2.82%
02 - Kratz/Renier	13,934	10,960		24,894	2974	55.97%	44.03%	11.95%

St Rep 64th - Covers Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, City of Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp and Summit Twp in Jackson County. This is a swing district that has voted for both Republicans and Democrats in the past. It has a slight Republican leaning at the top of the ticket with Sandstone, Spring Arbor, and Summit usually outvoting Jackson City, but locally, Summit likes Marty Griffin, and that tilted this district to his favor. Griffin is a two term incumbent who won in 06 and 08.

St Rep 64th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Prebble/Griffin	14,454	24,260		38,714	-9806	37.34%	62.66%	-25.33%
06 - Baxter/Griffin	14,178	15,703		29,881	-1525	47.45%	52.55%	-5.10%
04 - Baxter/Griffin	18,727	18,429	498	37,654	298	49.73%	48.94%	0.79%
02 - Bisbee/McNitt	15,928	8,936		24,864	6992	64.06%	35.94%	28.12%

St Rep 63rd - Covers one precint in Battle Creek, Bedford Twp, Emmett Twp, Marshall City and Twp, Newton Twp, and Pennfield Twp in Calhoun County. Covers Brady Twp, Charleston Twp, Climax Twp, Comstock Twp, City of Galesburg, Pavilion Twp, Richland Twp, Ross Twp, Schoolcraft Twp, and Wakeshma Twp in Kalamazoo County.This is a lean GOP, but not solid GOP district.

St Rep 63rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Bolger/Smith	27,641	21,188		48,829	6453	56.61%	43.39%	13.22%
06 - Wenke/Smith	21,263	17,352		38,615	3911	55.06%	44.94%	10.13%
04 - Wenke/Geary	28,181	19,723		47,904	8458	58.83%	41.17%	17.66%
02 - Wenke/Mackinder	18,093	13,918		32,011	4175	56.52%	43.48%	13.04%

St Rep 62nd - Covers most of Calhoun County. All except Leroy and part of Athens Twp is in this district. The rest is in the 6th District.This seat leans slightly democrat, although Nofs held it for three terms. Mark Schauer had it before him, and I believe a GOP'er had it before Mark Schauer. This seat can be competitive.

St Rep 62nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moore/Segal	15,426	25,029		40,455	-9603	38.13%	61.87%	-23.74%
06 - Nofs/Haley	15,639	13,533		29,172	2106	53.61%	46.39%	7.22%
04 - Nofs/Haley	20,935	18,289		39,224	2646	53.37%	46.63%	6.75%
02 - Nofs/Dearing	13,619	11,986		25,605	1633	53.19%	46.81%	6.38%

St Rep 58th - Covers Branch and Hillsdale Counties - Solid Republican district. Ken Kurtz is the current incumbent, winning in 2008.

St Rep 58th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Kurtz/Kennedy-Windsor	24,487	12,151		36,638	12336	66.83%	33.17%	33.67%
06 - Caswell/Smith	21,317	7,925		29,242	13392	72.90%	27.10%	45.80%
04 - Caswell/Gabbard	26,945	9,726		36,671	17219	73.48%	26.52%	46.96%
02 - Caswell/Magda	14,836	7,349		22,185	7487	66.87%	33.13%	33.75%

St Rep 57th - Covers all of Lenawee County outside of Cambridge Twp. This is a swing district won by both Tim Walberg several times and the Spade brothers three times a piece (Doug and Dudley). Dudley Spade is termed out

St Rep 57th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Jenkins/Du.Spade	13,753	29,128		42,881	-15375	32.07%	67.93%	-35.86%
06 - Koehn/Du. Spade	10,420	20,782		31,202	-10362	33.40%	66.60%	-33.21%
04 - Abraham/Du. Spade	17,640	25,183		42,823	-7543	41.19%	58.81%	-17.61%
02 - Gallagher/Do.Spade	7,877	17,887		25,764	-10010	30.57%	69.43%	-38.85%

St Rep 52nd - Covers Northeastern Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgwater Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, City of Saline, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. This was created as a swing district, but does have some democrat leanings, especially within the last 6 years. Gene DeRossett won the district in 2002 by winning big in the far western townships as a two term incumbent (of a less democrat district). Pam Byrnes won the 2004 open seat and has held it since. She's termed out. The open seat I'd say favors a democrat, but the Republicans have their best candidate running in Mark Ouimet, who as a county commissioner, somehow still wins in Scio Twp. This will be one to watch.

St Rep 52nd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Lielbriedis/Byrnes	19,180	35,957	1982	57,119	-16777	33.58%	62.95%	-29.37%
06 - Brown/Byrnes	16,747	28,046		44,793	-11299	37.39%	62.61%	-25.22%
04 - Yekulis/Byrnes	24,669	29,740		54,409	-5071	45.34%	54.66%	-9.32%
02 - DeRossett/Byrnes	19,579	17,091		36,670	2488	53.39%	46.61%	6.78%

Overall, the 7th district area is one of the most competitive and independent leaning areas in the state. Unless someone is able to do what Nick Smith did in the 90's and get almost all the sides on board to win, it should be competitive for a long time. Schwarz was a one termer. Walberg was as well, although he might win it back. Schauer only had 48%. Most of the state rep and state senate seats are competitive or capable of being competitive. I expect the populist nature of the district to recoil against the national democrats soon with the big government of the feds. Whether it expands to the state level is unknown because there are a lot of state workers in this district. Eaton County is next to Lansing. Calhoun County has some commuters. Jackson County is known for corrections, although much of that is now gone. Social liberals don't usually play well here, and neither does big business, so that will make things interesting for 2010.