In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Who is running in Livingston County for 2014 partisan elections?

The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.

Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for  Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.

For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)

Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.

Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)

We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance.  As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.

Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin  (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)

This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.

State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)

Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.


State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp),  Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)

I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you).  I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.

The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair. 


47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)

This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.

The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.

County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.

District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.

District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012.  Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.

District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)

Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county).  Hartland doesn't vote for dems.  


District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)

This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp.  Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat.  Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.



District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)

Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.

District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of  Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)


Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.

Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy)  Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.

District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)

Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.

District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)

This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.

District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)

Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.

Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)

Conway's heavily independent but conservative.

When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.

The field is set. It's time to get to work.  

Skubick column on Joe Hune

Interesting column from Tim Skubick

From Mlive

When state Sen. Joe Hune stepped off the plane from a European vacation, he did not scramble for the phones to consult with his campaign team. Instead he immediately went to the side of a rare male albino two-humped camel that was born while he was gone and was struggling to stay alive.
That was a clear indication this guy was not running for Congress, although having a camel raiser in the U.S. House with Michigan’s former reindeer herder Congressman would have made headlines.

I've known Joe Hune since he ran for the then brand new 47th district back in 2002. At 22, he won a race he had no business (on paper) winning by taking his farm work ethic and strong organization,  and applying it to the campaign. It was a grassroots farmer and Fowlerville based victory.

I wasn't sure he was going to run or not. I've heard rumors of both, by good sources. The official word until the news came out was that there was no decision and that the rest of speculation.

It's well known that Joe's not a DC guy, which is why I think he would have done a great job there. He would have given DC a dose of much needed Fowlerville common sense, particularly on spending. Joe treats our tax money and our company time like he treats his own time. He doesn't like to waste it. As a constituent, I hoped he'd run. I also respect his decision to stay where he is. It wouldn't be me paying the price of the job in DC.

It would be a real high price if he ran. While I think he would have won the primary (no offense to Mike Bishop, Tom McMillin and Bryan Barnett, but they are all from the same area and a geographic mismatch to Hune) and the general (Hune wins independents and keeps the base), it still was not a sure thing. He's also be running every two years. While nothing is an absolute sure thing, Joe's the winner barring a disaster in the 22nd for re-election. His opponent will not catch him sleeping on the election. He'd give up a four year term if ran for Congress. He and his wife would leave home and the farm to go to DC if he won. DC politics is a nasty business and getting nastier.

Best of luck to Joe in re-election. As far as the 8th District goes, I'm keeping my powder dry for now and want to hear more from the candidates and refresh my research on their voting records and statements when they weren't dealing with a re-election. I also want to see who places an emphasis on Livingston County. While we're the 3rd most GOP county in the state by percentage, and 2nd among counties over 100,000 people, we're sometimes still viewed as a shadow of our surrounding counties. With three Rochester area candidates, we could very well choose the winner. 


 

Joe Hune running for State Senate, not Congress

From the Argus

State Sen. Joe Hune, R-Hamburg Township, will not seek the GOP nomination to succeed U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Howell, in Congress, Hune announced today.
Hune said he will instead focus on his reelection bid in the state Senate.
His announcement follows Monday's news that Rogers is endorsing former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop of Rochester for the GOP nomination for the 8th Congressional District seat, which represents all of Livingston and Ingham counties, and a portion of Oakland County
In a statement, Hune said he wants to contribute to “strong conservative leadership” in Lansing and spend time with his family.
“Marcia and I are really touched and overwhelmed by all of the people who have contacted us about the possibility of running for Congress. We took some time and thought very carefully about what it meant for us as a family at this point in our lives,” Hune said in his statement.
“Just like everyone else, this situation came as a surprise to us. At a time when we want to grow and enjoy more family time, adopting a congressional lifestyle just doesn’t make sense,” he added.

The bad news is that my first choice for the Congressional seat is not running. The good news is that I have a very good state senator.  No, I'm not saying that to avoid getting spit on by his camels. He does good work. His office does good work. They all put with me when issues come up.

In the 8th District, that leaves State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett. Others may be jumping in. We'll see. The filing deadline is April 22nd, and 1000 VALID signatures are needed, so the window to jump in is extremely narrow.

State Senate Redistricting - District 22 (SD-22)

State Senate - District 22
Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325

This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.

I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.

This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.

Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	55592	42349	97941	13243	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	526	481	1007	45	52.23%	47.77%	4.47%
Chelsea	1214	1748	2962	-534	40.99%	59.01%	-18.03%
Dexter Twp	1730	2064	3794	-334	45.60%	54.40%	-8.80%
Freedom Twp	481	428	909	53	52.92%	47.08%	5.83%
Lima Twp	973	973	1946	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1894	1803	3697	91	51.23%	48.77%	2.46%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	1578	-108	46.58%	53.42%	-6.84%
Manchester Twp	1241	1424	2665	-183	46.57%	53.43%	-6.87%
Northfield Twp	2109	2310	4419	-201	47.73%	52.27%	-4.55%
Saline Twp	539	507	1046	32	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Scio Twp	3772	7709	11481	-3937	32.85%	67.15%	-34.29%
Sharon Twp	556	503	1059	53	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	1915	-77	47.99%	52.01%	-4.02%
Webster Twp	1911	2186	4097	-275	46.64%	53.36%	-6.71%
Total	74192	66324	140516	7868	52.80%	47.20%	5.60%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	58860	33991	92851	24869	63.39%	36.61%	26.78%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	550	352	902	198	60.98%	39.02%	21.95%
Chelsea	1300	1490	2790	-190	46.59%	53.41%	-6.81%
Dexter Twp	1909	1672	3581	237	53.31%	46.69%	6.62%
Freedom Twp	481	405	886	76	54.29%	45.71%	8.58%
Lima Twp	926	709	1635	217	56.64%	43.36%	13.27%
Lodi Twp	2104	1519	3623	585	58.07%	41.93%	16.15%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	1530	94	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Manchester Twp	1299	1168	2467	131	52.66%	47.34%	5.31%
Northfield Twp	2352	2027	4379	325	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Saline Twp	612	464	1076	148	56.88%	43.12%	13.75%
Scio Twp	4244	6262	10506	-2018	40.40%	59.60%	-19.21%
Sharon Twp	630	440	1070	190	58.88%	41.12%	17.76%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	1802	164	54.55%	45.45%	9.10%
Webster Twp	2097	1707	3804	390	55.13%	44.87%	10.25%
Total	79159	53743	132902	25416	59.56%	40.44%	19.12%
Last St Senate	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%