In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Road taxes shows differences in 42nd District race

The Argus has a story about the roads, gas taxes and the candidates for the 42nd District here in Livingston County.

Not surprisingly, I highly disagree with one of them regarding the gas tax. There's been a militant push among many in the media and political class supporting the gas tax going back to 2007. It has taken seven years and luckily it still had not increased over the 36-40 cents it is currently (depending on price at the pump).

Perlberg said the state must address two decades of neglect of Michigan’s roads.
Lawmakers continue to seek another $1.2 billion in annual road funding.
“I would achieve that with a combination of increased gas taxes and vehicle registration fees. That could be tempered in the future if we have sustained economic growth, which will produce additional dollars into our general fund,” he said at the recent forum.

I'll give Rich Perlberg credit for being out and open about his support for this. It's certainly not going to be a popular answer. Considering we have the 6th highest gas tax in the country, it shouldn't be a popular answer.

Lana Theis had this.

Brighton Township Treasurer Lana Theis, also a GOP contender for the House seat, said capturing 25 percent of annual state budget increases could fill the funding gap.Theis said her idea would have captured a total of roughly $1 billion between the 2010 and 2014 budget years.

“The problem is not that we’re not taking enough money. It’s that we’re not spending the money in the right place,” Theis said at the Daily Press & Argus candidate forum.“Until they prove to me that they’re spending all of the money that we take at the pump on the roads, I don’t even want to discuss a tax increase,” Theis added.

Nick Fiani had this

Nick Fiani, president of the Brighton Area Schools Board of Education and a GOP House candidate, said the state should strictly dedicate gas taxes, the state’s sales tax on gas, and vehicle registration fees to roads.
Dedicating the sales tax on gasoline to roads would involve voter approval because it would require a constitutional amendment. Without increasing the sales tax, it also would mean schools and local governments would lose funding they currently rely on.
Fiani said road funding could also receive a boost through repealing Michigan’s prevailing-wage law on public construction projects and through more competitive bidding on projects.
He said his overall plan would create between $750 million and nearly $1 billion each year in extra road funding.
“There is absolutely no need to raise taxes to fix Michigan roads. If the state and the government would utilize the proper and appropriate streams of revenue toward the appropriate expenditures, a solution could be (found),” he said.

Dale Rogers had this

GOP House candidate Dale Rogers, a Novi High School vocational teacher, called for a bipartisan commission to review state spending.
Rogers said a starting point could be axing tax-incentive programs.
For the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, the state’s economic development incentives will be funded at $130 million, and the state’s filmmaking incentives at $50 million, according to state figures.
If the appropriated $180 million in incentives went to roads, that would still be $1.02 billion short of Snyder’s figure.
Most of the business incentives are scheduled to expire, but with program dollars intended to fill a revenue gap created by ending the personal-property tax on business equipment.
Rogers said the panel also could consider slashing a portion of state Department of Corrections funding, set at $2.04 billion for 2015.

I also saw this quote which tells me many of the same problems at the heart of every budget issue is still around.  

But only about $10 billion of next year’s $52 billion budget is state money. The remaining $42 billion is federal money, none of which can be redirected for other uses, explained David Murray, Snyder’s deputy press secretary.Murray said state general fund revenue increased about $1.1 billion from 2012 to next year’s budget, however.

I have a hard time believing that the $42 billion is federal money. He's confusing "state money" with earmarked money.  Some money is earmarked due to federal strings attached (matching funds, etc) and some is due to the State Constitution provision. It would take an amendment to change some of those. It's also something that needs to be looked at. If 82% of the budget can't be touched, than the legislature and governor has a real hard time doing its job properly. Until more than 8-10 billion can be adjusted, we'll always have budgetary problems in this state.  It's a structural issue that goes back to before Engler. Open up the whole damn thing and fix it. Don't give us another tax.

Who is running in Livingston County for 2014 partisan elections?

The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.

Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for  Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.

For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)

Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.

Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)

We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance.  As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.

Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin  (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)

This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.

State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)

Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.


State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp),  Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)

I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you).  I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.

The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair. 


47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)

This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.

The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.

County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.

District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.

District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012.  Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.

District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)

Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county).  Hartland doesn't vote for dems.  


District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)

This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp.  Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat.  Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.



District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)

Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.

District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of  Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)


Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.

Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy)  Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.

District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)

Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.

District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)

This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.

District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)

Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.

Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)

Conway's heavily independent but conservative.

When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.

The field is set. It's time to get to work.  

More State Rep Candidates

There's been more State Rep Candidates who have announced since the last update so I'll mention this.

We have a long list of candidates here running as Republicans for State Rep including two very recent announcements. There may be more. So far the announced/filed candidates are in alphabetical order.
42nd District:
Nick Fiani
Rich Perlberg
Dale Rogers
Lana Theis

47th District:
Charlie Aberasturi
Phil Campbell
Wendy Day
Harold Melton
Theodore Ring
Hank Vaupel

Some of these folks we know. Some we see consistently or at least occasionally at our events. Some we have met once or twice. Some we've never met at all. One candidate I know literally nothing about. Most of these candidates have some sort of records. They have records of statements, donations, writings, and/or voting decisions at their local public offices. I encourage everybody to do their due diligence and look up these records of statements, donations, writings, and/or voting decisions on issues and make your decision based on that. Also make these be known to your primary election voting friends and family who may not be informed. While the 42nd and 47th Districts are considered on paper safe republican, nothing is 100% safe as Joseph Cao showed us in New Orleans, and John Espinoza showed us in Sanilac County (nearly as GOP as Livingston County). We must take this election seriously and nominate the best candidate, one who works hard, will get the base to vote, and also get enough independents to win without alienating the base.

Timothy Johnson - Where are we going to get the money?

In my district, HD-42, we have a democrat who has announced, Timothy Johnson.

From Brighton Patch and Judy Daubenmier

A teacher with nearly 20 years of experience in special education has announced that he will run for the Democratic nomination for the 42nd House seat in Livingston County.
Timothy Johnson said Friday he is planning to file his papers for the Democratic nomination with the Livingston County Clerk's office soon.
"The quality of life is no longer improving for 99 percent of the people in Michigan. A few powerful special interests are dictating state policy and private morality for the majority. I want to reverse those trends by speaking up for the rest of us," he said.

The most telling part of the article is this quote. Judy Daubenmier is the Chair for the Democrats, so I highly doubt she will misquote him.

The most critical issues facing the area, Johnson said, are more funding for public schools; increasing spending for Michigan infrastructure, including roads and bridges, and protecting the environment, especially greater regulation of fracking.

Where are we going to get the money?  It doesn't grow on trees. 

Also saw Tim's facebook page.. His views are well out of the mainstream of Michigan, including center-right Livingston County.  He is a self-described "Elizabeth Warren" democrat.

This guy is to the left of 99% of Livingston County.  He spent two years in my county and wants to change us to something leftist by any standard. No thanks. We don't need Wayne County politics here.

On his site, he mentions as reasons for running.

1. Tired of being told men rule. 

Folks, if you agree, we have someone who isn't a man running in the 42nd district. That's not Timothy Johnson.

2. Tired of being told white men rule. 

Wouldn't that include Timothy Johnson? We do have one candidate, arguable two depending on definition of what you consider "white" if that matters, who isn't running in the 42nd District. That's not Timothy Johnson.

3. Tired of being told old white men rule. 

I don't know how old Timothy Johnson is, but he looks older than at least two of our candidates. I'm not sure why "old" or "white" or "men" should matter in the first place, but he obviously think it's an issue.

While is talks about being an NRA member, he's like Michael Moore who claimed to be an NRA member, but he's still a gun grabber. He thinks he should be allowed to own guns, but not the "little people." The Second Amendment is not about hunting. He wants a "serious talk" on gun control, but it's been done election time time and time again. Even in anti-gun states, gun owners in Connecticut are breaking the law by not turning them in. Oh well.

He's pro-abortion. He supports a $15 minimum wage. He doesn't like Rush Limbaugh (that's fine) so he wants to shut him down. This guy can not handle disagreement. No wonder why he's a gun grabber (of other people's guns, not his of course. Typical Union Rep politician).

Luckily we have options. Three candidates are running on the Republican side, all of whom are much closer to mainstream Michigan including our own center-right Livingston County. In alphabetical order:

Nick Fiani

Dale Rogers

Lana Theis

Dale Rogers running again for HD-42

We now have a 3rd candidate in my district. Dale Rogers, who challenged Bill (no relation) in the 2012 primary, is now running for the open 42nd state rep district.

From the Argus

Novi High School teacher and Hamburg Township resident Dale Rogers is making his second run for the state House seat currently filled by state Rep. Bill Rogers, R-Genoa Township.
Dale Rogers — no relation to Bill Rogers — on Friday filed his paperwork for the Republican nomination for the 42nd District seat representing Brighton and the townships of Brighton, Genoa, Green Oak, Hamburg and Putnam in the House.
Dale Rogers said he hopes to provide an alternative Republican viewpoint from further-right GOP officials and candidates. He also ran for the seat in 2012.
Brighton Township Treasurer Lana Theis and Brighton Area Schools Board of Education member Nick Fiani are also running in for the seat in the the Aug. 5 GOP primary. A Democratic candidate for the House seat has yet to be announced.
Bill Rogers is term-limited, which means he must vacate the seat this year.

I don't know Dale well, although I met him a couple of times. He's a nice guy, and is not surprisingly running on education related issues.

The 2012 primary was one sided, but there's no incumbents this time. Lana Theis and Nick Fiani are also running for the open seat.With three people running, there is a choice in this election.

Nick Fiani web site

Dale Rogers web site

Lana Theis web site

Lana Theis running in 42nd District for State Rep

Campaign season is starting early here in Livingston County. We already have three candidates running in the 47th District, and now we have our first announcement for my own 42nd District (Which was the 66th District until 2012). Lana Theis, past chair of LCGOP and current Brighton Township Treasurer, is running to replace Bill Rogers, who is currently term limited.

I've known Lana for almost ten years. I first met her when she was one of the Victory Center directors back in 2004. Since then, she's had various party leadership positions including being the past LCGOP Chair.  She was also one of the leaders against the infamous and highly restrictive Brighton Township Tree Ordnance (Repealed) and later became Brighton Township Treasurer. She's currently in her 2nd term. Most recently, she lead the fight for Proposal 5, which was the push for a 2/3rd legislative requirement to raise taxes. I supported that proposal and voted for it. It unfortunately did not pass. She's also a longtime friend of Americans for Prosperity.

Lana is a fiscal and social conservative and does not hide that fact. I think she'll be a strong candidate if she gets the funding and stays focused.

Other candidates may run as well. If everyone I think might run does run, I'm going to have a real tough time with my decision, and that's in a positive sense instead of a lesser of evils sense. Most of the names I'm hearing are good people.

I'm not making any endorsements outside of the winning primary candidate because I am the current LCGOP chair.

Here's who is running in August in Livingston County - 2012

The filing deadline for the August primary was May 15 at 4PM. The unofficial filings are in. In Livingston County, our August primary will feature the following. In partisan races, the winners are those in each party with the most votes. In non-partisan races, there's a runoff with the top two.

I did not include write-in  candidates who may occur in the future. 


For the US Senate race, we have the following people in:
Rep - Clark Durant (Grosse Pointe Farms), Gary Glenn (Midland), Randy Hekman (Grand Rapids), Pete Hoekstra (Holland), Peter Konetchy (Roscommon).

Dem - Debbie Stabenow (Lansing).

Stabenow, the dangerously incompetent one is the incumbent, and anyone would be an improvement over her. All have their strengths. Durant is most known for charter schools in Detroit. Glenn is most known for running the Michigan branch of the American Family Association. I don't know much of anything about Hekman. Hoekstra is the most well known and experienced with congressional career and Herman Miller. Konetchy is first and foremost a constitutionalist, and is also a successful business owner. There's no shortage of choices in this race.

In MI-08, Mike Rogers has a primary and a general election.

In the primary, he's facing Brian Hertrick and Vernon Molnar. Hertrick's from the Brighton area. I know the name from somewhere although I can't remember off the top of my head. Molnar is either from Fenton (in the 5th) or Holly. Unless someone else has the same name, he ran against John Gleason in a Genesee County district, so I'm a little miffed at him running in the 8th. His house is on the county line.

The winner faces either Lance Enderle or Michael Magdich. Lance's hero is Alan Grayson in Florida. I don't need to say anything more than that.

The other guy is a carpetbagger. I looked up what I could on Magdich and one thing caught my eye right away. I thought based on campaign finance records that he might be a recent transplant from Warren. That was just his work address, but he is a recent transplant.....from Wayne County. That's fine, as long as you don't bring Wayne County politics here. Now he wants to bring Wayne County Democrat Politics to Livingston County. He's a guy who takes a shot at the 1% while living in a $685,000 house.That sounds like a Wayne County politician to me.

Worse, he's pushing for the same FAILED green anti-industrial (non Solundra) policies of his guy Obama.

I'm a native from Livingston County back when it truly was "the country" in more than just attitudes. Not everyone is, and that's alright. I don't hold that against them. My parents are transplants and they didn't want anything to do with the city anymore. I do have a problem when recent transplants move from the city and bring city politics with them that wrecked their county. Democrats destroyed Detroit with their policies. Now some upper middle class yuppie greenie from Wayne County who bought a nearly $700,000 house here thinks he can represent Livingston County?

For State Rep, both Cindy Denby and Bill Rogers have primary challengers. Cindy is facing Harold Melton and Bill is facing Dale Rogers. I know Melton. He's a good guy, but I'm still supporting Cindy. She has one of the best run offices I've ever dealt with. I'm no longer in HD-47, but she still does a good job, really for the whole county. Dale Rogers is a teacher in Novi. Other than that, I don't know much about him. In the general, the winners will face either People who live this way Shawn Lowe Desai or Shanda Willis, who support more spending and abortion rights.

The county races have contests as well.

The Prosecutor's race is open with Dave Morse retiring. Lyle Dickson, Carolyn Henry, and Bill Vailliencourt are all running. I knew Lyle and Bill before they were running and finally had a chance to talk to Carolyn. I haven't decided who I'm supporting yet. All of them have things they bring to the table, and all of them have different backgrounds. Lyle is a former policeman and is a general practitioner. Carolyn is an active litigator in court and is also Howell Township trustee.  Bill's currently an assistant prosecutor. The winner will face moderate democrat and defense attorney Matt Evans, who practices law in Wayne County.

The Sheriff's race will be interesting to say the least. I'm going to be hearing about this comment later, but I'm expecting a repeat of the Homan vs Deering battles to be honest here. This one's going to get ugly. Bigtime. Bob Bezotte's the incumbent and is facing a primary with former deputy Tom Ash and former Michigan State Police Lt. C.J. Maier. The winner of the primary wins as no democrat is running.

There's a primary for clerk as well, which surprises me. Margaret Dunleavy is running again and has my support. No question. Margo Heinonen is challenging her. I know the last name from somewhere, but I can't think of where offhand. I deal with the clerk's office often with election matters, and Margaret has my support.

The treasurer's race has a primary. Dianne Hardy retired and her deputy Jennifer Nash was appointed to replace her. Nash is running for election as a quasi-incumbent. Tax law attorney Brian Wutz is challenging her in the primary. I've met Brian at a few events. I think he'd do a real good job and has the right background for this. 

Sally Reynold's is challenged as register of deeds by Carole Bullion. I know Sally and I've met Carole on a few occasions. Carole's a nice person (as is Sally) and would probably do a good job, but I don't have any reason to vote against Sally based on the job she's done. I'm certainly leaning that way 


Brian Jonckheere is unopposed as Drain Commissioner.

In the commissioner districts, There's no primaries for the 1st (Kate Lawrence and Bruce Schneider unopposed for open seat), 3rd (Domas and Morris), 5th (Drick), 6th (Williams), 7th (Griffith), or 8th (Dolan and Katakowski).

In the 2nd, William Green is facing Jim Mantey. Winner faces Jeanette DiFlorio. In the 4th, Bill Call is facing Ron Van Houten in the primary. Winner is unopposed in the general. In the 9th, Jack LaBelle is facing Gary Childs. Winner is unopposed in the general.

For the townships, I'm a little irked right now at our county party. We got caught looking, and I warned the committee about it too on multiple occasions. What happened in a couple of areas is exactly what I did not want to see happen.

Brighton Township - Everyone running is unopposed.

Cohoctah Township - Same thing. Everyone is unopposed.

Conway Township - Suspected RINO Steve Redinger is facing Michael Rife for the Supervisor position. Suspected RINO Cindy Dickerson is facing Susan Buell Dietz in the primary for the Clerk's position. Redinger and Dickerson both according to my records voted democrat in the 2008 primary when there was contests on both sides. My definition of RINO isn't a liberal republican, but an actual Republican in Name Only.

Deerfield Township - There's three running for two positions. Garry Johnston, Mike Randall, and Douglas Taylor are running. The two who win the primary win.

Genoa Township - I'm not surprised there's going to be a primary here. Gary McCririe is facing Kevin Spicher in the primary. Eight people are running for four positions for trustee as well. Jean Ledford, H. James Mortensen, Linda Rowell, Todd Smith, William Taylor, Dewey Thomas, Steve Wildman, and Keli Woodall. Jim Delcamp is running for the democrats unopposed and will have to beat one of them in the fall to be elected.

Green Oak Township - The only contest here is trustee. Six running for four spots. Tracey Edry, Richard Everett, Rollin Green, George Kilpatrick, Wally Qualls, and James Tuthill.

Hamburg Township - There's much less of a battle this time. Surprisingly, Pat Hohl has a free pass, as does RINO Allen Carlson. Five trustees are running for four spots. Michael Dolan, Bill Hahn, Chuck Menzies, Jason Negri, and Michael Zeglevski. Annette Koeble is running for the dems. She has to beat one of the four winners on the GOP side in November to win.

Handy Township - Everyone running is unopposed.

Hartland Township - Shockingly considering its history, everyone running is unopposed.

Howell Township - This is where our party was caught napping. Everyone running is unopposed. That includes the two democrats who filed for open trustee seats where there was no opposition. 50% of the trustees, barring a major surprise, will now be democrat after this election. No excuse. You don't win when you don't show up. This is why you contest every race. The dems just tripled their representation of partisan offices in the county.

Iosco Township - There is a primary between Dan Delmerico and Kent Laity for clerk.

Marion Township - Eight trustees running for four spots. Les Andersen, Alexander Duncan, Bernie Gerecke, Larry Grunn, Scott Lloyd, Dan Lowe, suspected RINO (2008 vote) Jim Murray, and Robert Peter.

Oceola Township - Everyone running is unopposed.

Putnam Township - Two races here. There's a three way primary for supervisor between Jerry Balk, Ron Rau, and Bobby Stone. The winner faces democrat Mike Porath. Democrats have won in Putnam Township before, so this isn't a sacrificial lamb. For trustee five people are running for four spots. Keith Chambers, Norm Klein, Richard McCloskey, Bob Press, and Donald Speer.

Tyrone Township - Both parties were caught looking. Nobody filed for trustee. Nobody. Again. No excuse.

 Unadilla Township - Everyone running is unopposed, including the longtime incumbent democrat Lori Cowan.

State House Redistricting - District 42 (HD-42)

State House - District 42
Current Reps - Bill Rogers (R-Genoa Twp)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Bill Rogers (R-Brighton)
Dem - Shanda Willis (D-Brighton)

Update 5-26-2012 - Bill Rogers has a challenger from Novi Teacher Dale Rogers, who often posts on the Livingston Post website. Bill's favored to win, although I think Dale has the potential with his background to be a strong challenger if he really knows how to run a state rep campaign. Adding Hamburg and Putnam Twps did not do Bill any favors. While most MEA teachers are democrats, there are many who are swing voters or sometimes weak GOP because of some issues. I noticed that from other campaigns, including some names I recognized that I'd never expect to be on a GOP list until I saw one major indicator that would explain it. I'm not going to bet against Bill here, but I don't expect this to be a repeat of Joe Hune vs Paul Rogers.  

Update 8-30-2012 - Bill Rogers wins the primary. 

2010 Results - Old District (66th)
Bill Rogers - 23,480
James Delcamp - 8,246

The new 42th is descended from the old 66th district in Livingston County. This district changed slightly with redistricting. It dropped Milford to the 44th district. It dropped Oceola Twp and Marion Twp to the 47th district with Cindy Denby. It picks up Hamburg and Putnam Townshops from Denby. This new district is much less republican than it was previously, but Brighton and Genoa Townships will carry this even in bad year barring a Don Sherwood level of disaster. I think the last time a dem won this district was maybe  1990 or more likely 1986 for Frank Kelley.

Bill Rogers has one more term left, then this district will open up.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	1984	2097	4081	-113	48.62%	51.38%	-2.77%
Brighton Twp	6589	4188	10777	2401	61.14%	38.86%	22.28%
Genoa Twp	6592	4502	11094	2090	59.42%	40.58%	18.84%
Green Oak Twp	5522	4395	9917	1127	55.68%	44.32%	11.36%
Hamburg Twp	6355	5922	12277	433	51.76%	48.24%	3.53%
Putnam Twp	2210	2157	4367	53	50.61%	49.39%	1.21%
Total	29252	23261	52513	5991	55.70%	44.30%	11.41%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	2226	1763	3989	463	55.80%	44.20%	11.61%
Brighton Twp	6977	3525	10502	3452	66.43%	33.57%	32.87%
Genoa Twp	7081	3608	10689	3473	66.25%	33.75%	32.49%
Green Oak Twp	5779	3618	9397	2161	61.50%	38.50%	23.00%
Hamburg Twp	6933	4933	11866	2000	58.43%	41.57%	16.85%
Putnam Twp	2417	1792	4209	625	57.42%	42.58%	14.85%
Total	31413	19239	50652	12174	62.02%	37.98%	24.03%
Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	1747	950	2697	797	64.78%	35.22%	29.55%
Brighton Twp	5585	1827	7412	3758	75.35%	24.65%	50.70%
Genoa Twp	5692	1806	7498	3886	75.91%	24.09%	51.83%
Green Oak Twp	4603	1888	6491	2715	70.91%	29.09%	41.83%
Hamburg Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Putnam Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	17627	6471	24098	11156	73.15%	26.85%	46.29%