In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

	Snyder	Schauer	TOTAL	Snyder	Schauer	Vote Spread
70 OTTAWA	65,889	21,954	89,543	73.58%	24.52%	43,935
47 LIVINGSTON	47,110	21,484	70,019	67.28%	30.68%	25,626
03 ALLEGAN	23,301	11,187	35,452	65.73%	31.56%	12,114
57 MISSAUKEE	3,209	1,541	4,884	65.70%	31.55%	1,668
08 BARRY	12,821	6,757	20,057	63.92%	33.69%	6,064
76 SANILAC	7,986	4,288	12,642	63.17%	33.92%	3,698
12 BRANCH	7,044	3,905	11,283	62.43%	34.61%	3,139
30 HILLSDALE	8,308	4,598	13,312	62.41%	34.54%	3,710
41 KENT	116,969	67,293	188,381	62.09%	35.72%	49,676
24 EMMET	8,065	4,580	13,023	61.93%	35.17%	3,485
62 NEWAYGO	8,980	5,031	14,528	61.81%	34.63%	3,949
05 ANTRIM	5,880	3,406	9,517	61.78%	35.79%	2,474
75 ST. JOSEPH	9,127	5,310	14,909	61.22%	35.62%	3,817
56 MIDLAND	17,699	10,607	29,056	60.91%	36.51%	7,092
32 HURON	7,141	4,378	11,831	60.36%	37.00%	2,763
64 OCEANA	4,999	3,045	8,284	60.35%	36.76%	1,954
69 OTSEGO	4,777	2,972	7,969	59.94%	37.29%	1,805
67 OSCEOLA	4,337	2,642	7,238	59.92%	36.50%	1,695
15 CHARLEVOIX	6,255	3,998	10,549	59.29%	37.90%	2,257
22 DICKINSON	5,053	3,376	8,603	58.74%	39.24%	1,677
83 WEXFORD	5,868	3,835	10,041	58.44%	38.19%	2,033
28 GD. TRAVERSE	19,461	12,992	33,366	58.33%	38.94%	6,469
34 IONIA	10,422	7,091	18,005	57.88%	39.38%	3,331
40 KALKASKA	3,330	2,202	5,779	57.62%	38.10%	1,128
59 MONTCALM	9,866	6,686	17,166	57.47%	38.95%	3,180
44 LAPEER	17,023	11,613	29,625	57.46%	39.20%	5,410
42 KEWEENAW	639	444	1,114	57.36%	39.86%	195
01 ALCONA	2,529	1,806	4,466	56.63%	40.44%	723
45 LEELANAU	6,172	4,600	11,006	56.08%	41.80%	1,572
14 CASS	7,520	5,425	13,419	56.04%	40.43%	2,095
55 MENOMINEE	3,634	2,728	6,498	55.92%	41.98%	906
20 CRAWFORD	2,656	1,962	4,758	55.82%	41.24%	694
11 BERRIEN	24,173	18,042	43,479	55.60%	41.50%	6,131
63 OAKLAND	247,863	191,341	446,616	55.50%	42.84%	56,522
54 MECOSTA	6,491	4,854	11,697	55.49%	41.50%	1,637
38 JACKSON	24,881	18,995	44,854	55.47%	42.35%	5,886
74 ST. CLAIR	28,399	21,306	51,232	55.43%	41.59%	7,093
80 VAN BUREN	12,310	9,250	22,228	55.38%	41.61%	3,060
16 CHEBOYGAN	5,288	4,007	9,582	55.19%	41.82%	1,281
79 TUSCOLA	9,412	7,188	17,142	54.91%	41.93%	2,224
19 CLINTON	15,939	12,722	29,109	54.76%	43.70%	3,217
48 LUCE	1,046	810	1,913	54.68%	42.34%	236
53 MASON	5,455	4,330	10,063	54.21%	43.03%	1,125
60 MONTMORENCY	1,912	1,497	3,540	54.01%	42.29%	415
68 OSCODA	1,498	1,158	2,778	53.92%	41.68%	340
35 IOSCO	5,089	4,054	9,442	53.90%	42.94%	1,035
31 HOUGHTON	5,581	4,449	10,358	53.88%	42.95%	1,132
50 MACOMB	142,830	116,644	265,090	53.88%	44.00%	26,186
13 CALHOUN	20,425	16,704	37,962	53.80%	44.00%	3,721
46 LENAWEE	15,574	12,664	29,071	53.57%	43.56%	2,910
36 IRON	2,262	1,839	4,223	53.56%	43.55%	423
49 MACKINAC	2,231	1,870	4,190	53.25%	44.63%	361
26 GLADWIN	4,579	3,735	8,606	53.21%	43.40%	844
10 BENZIE	3,823	3,183	7,227	52.90%	44.04%	640
72 ROSCOMMON	4,861	4,070	9,204	52.81%	44.22%	791
21 DELTA	7,070	6,051	13,414	52.71%	45.11%	1,019
77 SCHOOLCRAFT	1,507	1,321	2,889	52.16%	45.73%	186
71 PRESQUE ISLE	2,743	2,365	5,264	52.11%	44.93%	378
65 OGEMAW	3,621	3,095	6,982	51.86%	44.33%	526
29 GRATIOT	5,667	4,983	10,933	51.83%	45.58%	684
58 MONROE	24,275	21,447	47,003	51.65%	45.63%	2,828
66 ONTONAGON	1,295	1,156	2,535	51.08%	45.60%	139
39 KALAMAZOO	41,407	37,523	81,156	51.02%	46.24%	3,884
78 SHIAWASSEE	12,269	11,252	24,289	50.51%	46.33%	1,017
17 CHIPPEWA	5,590	5,166	11,077	50.46%	46.64%	424
18 CLARE	4,660	4,210	9,249	50.38%	45.52%	450
06 ARENAC	2,708	2,459	5,377	50.36%	45.73%	249
04 ALPENA	4,810	4,546	9,620	50.00%	47.26%	264
43 LAKE	1,745	1,656	3,520	49.57%	47.05%	89
23 EATON	19,989	20,049	40,785	49.01%	49.16%	-60
37 ISABELLA	8,031	7,871	16,433	48.87%	47.90%	160
07 BARAGA	1,180	1,249	2,487	47.45%	50.22%	-69
51 MANISTEE	4,360	4,650	9,252	47.12%	50.26%	-290
09 BAY	17,471	18,902	37,347	46.78%	50.61%	-1,431
61 MUSKEGON	22,879	24,749	49,070	46.63%	50.44%	-1,870
02 ALGER	1,520	1,643	3,280	46.34%	50.09%	-123
27 GOGEBIC	2,306	2,628	5,048	45.68%	52.06%	-322
73 SAGINAW	30,264	35,370	67,142	45.07%	52.68%	-5,106
81 WASHTENAW	50,393	68,260	120,895	41.68%	56.46%	-17,867
52 MARQUETTE	9,265	12,466	22,263	41.62%	55.99%	-3,201
33 INGHAM	35,445	50,131	87,202	40.65%	57.49%	-14,686
25 GENESEE	48,894	79,573	131,602	37.15%	60.46%	-30,679
82 WAYNE	177,678	323,685	509,792	34.85%	63.49%	-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress	Bishop	Schertzing	Total	GOP	Dem
33 INGHAM	29,314	52,374	84,273	34.78%	62.15%
47 LIVINGSTON	43,330	21,623	67,544	64.15%	32.01%
63 OAKLAND	59,801	27,194	89,902	66.52%	30.25%
Total	132,445	101,191	241,719	54.79%	41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65%  to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

On to the presidential cycle. .

Who is running in Livingston County for 2014 partisan elections?

The filing deadline is in. I'll update this if data comes in late.

Before I get to the rest of ballot, there are no primaries for  Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, State Board of Education, the education boards of trustees/regents for MSU, UM, and Wayne State, or Supreme Court. These are decided in state conventions. Convention nominations are elected by state delegates. State delegates are elected at county conventions by precinct delegates. Preinct delegates are elected in the August primary. The filing deadline for those are May 6th and interested parties file at the County Clerk's office. In Livingston County, that's at the courthouse in downtown Howell.

For the offices:
Governor:
Rick Snyder (R - Superior Twp)
Mark Schauer (D - Battle Creek)

Anybody but Schauer. Gun grabbing, partial birth abortion, Granholm's taxes, Obamacare, and Cap and trade.

Senate:
Terri Lynn Land (R-Byron Township)
Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township)

We have an actual shot here and the pundits are finally starting to figure this out. I met Land in 2002. She was not supposed to be the nominee and ended up winning due to hard work on the campaign trail. Land will work hard and give us a chance.  As for Peters, that boy will do whatever Reid tells him to do.

Congress - 8th District (MI-08)
GOP - Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), and Tom McMillin  (R-Rochester Hills)
Dem - Ken Darga (D-Lansing), Eric Schertzing (D-East Lansing), Jeffrey Hank (D-East Lansing), Susan Grettenberger (D-Lansing)

This district leans slightly Republican because of Livingston County and North Oakland County. However, all of Ingham County is in the district, and anything with Lansing, East Lansing, and Meridian Twp isn't completely safe. Schertzing has won countywide in Ingham County, but how many people know who the treasurer is? It's an important position, but behind the scenes more than a prosecutor. In a 3 and 4 way primary, a lot of things can happen.

State Senate - 22nd District (SD-22)
GOP - Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
Dem - Shari Pollesch (D-Hartland Township)

Redistricting did make this seat more difficult as it swaps the swing areas of Shiawassee County and slightly Republican parts of Ingham County for most of Western Washtenaw County. Shiawassee County voted for Obama twice, but it's also friendly territory for Joe Hune. About 2/3 of this district is still Livingston County, and the most democrat parts of Washtenaw stay with Rebekah Warren. This is still safe. Chelsea and Scio Township can not carry a district for Pollesch. Even McCain won this district, and Joe's not going to be outworked.


State Rep
42nd District (HD-42)
GOP - Nick Fiani (R-Genoa Twp), Rich Perlberg (R-Brighton Twp),  Dale Rogers (R-Putnam Twp), Lana Theis (R-Brighton Twp)
Dem - Timothy Johnson (D-Genoa Twp)

I'm not worried about the general here. Johnson already put his foot in his mouth with his guilty white leftist comments as well as his anti-2nd Amendment comments (guns for me, not for you).  I think even a certain recalled Hamburg Township official would win this district without much of a problem. That may be a little cocky, but I'm usually cautious in my predictions. If I'm Nick, Rich, Dale, or Lana, I'd keep the dem talking. Beyond all of that, Johnson is a Wayne County guy who just moved here in 2012. While we're open to transplants including Wayne County transplants (like most of my family), many of us, including the transplants, don't want people to turn our county into the county the transplants left, especially Wayne County. People left Wayne County for a reason.

The main battle will be in the primary. The primary will be interesting. All bring their own backgrounds to the election. Nick Fiani is the president of the Brighton School Board. Rich Perlberg was the publisher for the local paper for years. Dale Rogers is a teacher. Lana Theis is Brighton Township treasurer and past GOP Chair. 


47th District (HD-47)
GOP - Phil Campbell (R-Howell), Wendy Day (R-Marion Twp), Harold Melton (R-Howell Twp), Ted Ring (R-Hartland Twp), Dr Hank Vaupel (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Jordan Genso (D-Marion Twp)

This is on paper one of the five safest districts in the state. The biggest problem for Jordan Genso is that there are only 3 places in this district that even voted for Carl Levin (who won nearly 2-1 statewide) against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Howell, Handy Twp, and Unadilla Twp. Stabenow in 2012 only won Howell against a weak nominee (due to lazy campaign). With a five way primary however, the potential is there for a disaster if (and a big if) a candidate emerges heavily wounded compounded with other candidate supporters skipping the race. That's Genso's ghost of a chance. I don't expect Jordan to beat himself, unlike Johnson who frankly already has beaten himself. This is a 60%+ district in almost all years, so when I mean ghost of a chance, I'm referring to Scott Brown level.

The primary will be big here. Phil Campbell is Mayor of Howell, Wendy Day is a tea party activist and former Howell School Board member. Harold Melton is an activist and retired construction worker. Ted Ring is a former teacher and business owner. Dr Hank Vaupel is a veterinarian and Handy Twp Supervisor.

County Commissioner
Right now, there are the following contests. In Livingston County, it takes a disaster for a democrat to win any partisan contest. That does not mean that Republicans don't need to work. Lazy candidates contribute to a disaster. If our candidates are smart, work hard, and do not beat themselves, they will win. Some areas are safer than others. Our job is to not beat ourselves and to continue to do good work. The dems are bragging about finding 9 people to put $100 in (or 20 signatures) to run for the commissioner spots. Congratulations. They did what anybody should be able to do. That doesn't mean they have good candidates. It means they have names on the ballot. That's it.

District 1 (City of Brighton, most of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Kate Lawrence (R-Brighton)
Dem - Bruce Schneider (D-Brighton Twp)
This is a rematch. Lawrence won with 67% in 2012. The only way a dem wins here is by a massive win in the City of Brighton. Brighton Twp doesn't vote for dems, and Lawrence was Mayor of Brighton City. She's a matchup nightmare for any dem.

District 2 (Deefield, Oceola, small part of Hartland)
GOP - Bill Green (R-Deerfield Twp)
Dem - Jeanette DiFlorio (D-?)
This is also a rematch. Green won with 65% in 2012.  Deefield and Oceola don't vote for dems.

District 3 (Tyrone, most of Hartland)
GOP - Dave Domas (R-Tyrone Twp)
Dem - Ronda Trouse (D-?)

Tyrone's moved a bit to the right in the past 20 years. Stabenow won it years ago (96?), but lost it bad to Hoekstra who was a bad candidate (fundraising and inactivity). Levin lost it to Hoogendyk and he's done the best of any dem in the county since Frank Kelley (who was the last dem to win the county).  Hartland doesn't vote for dems.  


District 4 (Conway, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, part of Putnam)
GOP - Ron Van Houten (R-Iosco Twp) Doug Helzerman (R-Handy Twp)
Dem - Donald Pushies (D-Conway Twp)

This district has a large number of independents. Conway's a 60%+ area at the top of the ticket, but had a dem township supervisor not all that long ago. Handy Twp likes their locals and while it's fairly strongly Republican, it fluctuates heavily based on candidate quality. Hune got 80% there before, but Stabenow also got 46% against Hoekstra, 6% ahead of Obama. Iosco is a more conservative version of Handy Twp in voting habits unless the GOP'er has strong ties to Handy Twp.  Unadilla will still vote for some dems, although it's now Republican at the top of the ticket. The part of Putnam in the district leans democrat.  Romney did very well in the district, but Hoekstra barely won it. The dems have what is likely an MEA connected candidate here. There's a couple of names that would really concern me here, but they didn't run. I don't see the MEA selling here, but we have to take this race seriously. The SW part of ths district sometimes goes dem, but they prefer their locals there. Pushies is 20 miles from there.



District 5 (Cohoctah, Howell, Howell Twp)
GOP - Don Parker (R-Howell)
Dem - Mike Tipton (D-Howell Twp)

Mike "34%" Tipton wants a rematch. Tipton couldn't crack 35% in a special election where there were no straight ticket voters hurting him. We were worried about Tipton last time since we were somewhat blind to his chances in a special election. We're not blind now. This time, we know what he's about. This time, it's a regular off year election. He's got a big mouth and will throw a lot of bombs, and we'll be ready for him. His big city style doesn't work in Livingston County.

District 6 (Marion Twp, most of Putnam Twp, small part of  Hamburg)
GOP - Steve Williams (R-Marion Twp), Steven Hart (R-Marion Twp?)
Dem - Lesa Doa (D-Marion Twp)


Steve Williams has a primary against Steven Hart. I don't know anything about Hart except that I think he may be a Pinckney cop. Interesting primary. Hopefully it doesn't get nasty.

Lesa Doa is Jordan Genso's wife. Genso is running in the 47th. This district could get interesting depending on matchups but it's a major geographic mismatch for Doa. Genso's geographic base is Hartland. For the 47th, that's not a big deal as Hartland's in the district (Joe Hune lives in Hamburg, but he's a Fowlerville guy)  Here, Hartland is not in the district, so Genso's base can't help her. I went to school with one of the Doas. Their base would be in the Brighton area, particularly the Brighton part of Genoa Township. Why is that important? The only way any democrat wins in Livingston County is with a large number of crossover voters. Steve Williams doesn't make a lot of mistakes or put his foot in his mouth. 15-20 years from now in an open seat matchup, this matchup would concern me much more than it does now if Jordan and Lesa stay in Marion Twp. The southwestern part of the county is quite independent and more apt to split their ticket, but it's also very geographic provincial. They'll vote for Hune/Donahue. This isn't a completely safe district due to Putnam's independent streak, but Steve Williams is a good candidate here.

District 7 (Genoa Twp)
GOP - Carol Griffith (R-Genoa Twp)
Dem - Jim Delcamp (D-Genoa Twp)

Safe R. Genoa Township doesn't vote democrat, unless it's a closet dem running as a Republican (not referring to Carol). I'll safe that story for another day. Carol's a very good commissioner and shouldn't have any troubles. This is one of the three most Republican district's in the county. Delcamp's run several times for office and hasn't been successful.

District 8 (most of Hamburg, small part of Green Oak)
GOP - Dennis Dolan (R-Hamburg)
Dem - Jim Katakowski (D-Hamburg)

This is a rematch. Dolan won last time with 58%, basically running with the top of the ticket. This could be a tough district if we have a bad matchup, but I'm not worried about a rematch here as long as we are prepared. We will be.

District 9 (Most of Green Oak, part of Brighton Twp)
GOP - Gary Childs (R-Green Oak)
Dem - Barry McBride (D-Green Oak)

Green Oak's heavily independent, but has moved our way some since the 70's. McBride ran a few years back against Jack LaBelle. This is the first time Childs faced a dem, although he beat Jack LaBelle which shows a lot of strength in his own right.

Conway Twp Treasurer:
GOP - Debbie Grubb (R-Conway Twp)
Dem - None that I know of. (Called Clerk's office earlier today)

Conway's heavily independent but conservative.

When I say "Safe R", it means Safe R barring a disaster. It doesn't not mean that we should get arrogant and do nothing but have a name out on the ballot. That's an easy way to lose. We have the facts on our side. We have a good track record in this county. We don't want to turn into Wayne County.

The field is set. It's time to get to work.  

Argus story on Ted Ring

From the Argus:

Retired math teacher and Vietnam War veteran Ted Ring wants to bring “common sense” representation to Michigan’s 47th House District seat in Lansing.
Ring, a Hartland Township resident, has created a six-person GOP primary field for the office representing most of Livingston County.
Ring, who is making his first run for public office, said his background in education and military service make him stand out in the large GOP field.
“I think I can appeal to a lot of people like that. I’m common sense,” he said. “I’m a likable guy.”
Ring said he’s concerned the new Common Core State Academic Standards in K-12 schools could be misleading students at least in math.
The new math and English standards are intended to encourage critical thinking in the classroom, and were conceived through a coalition of governors and school administrators with input from teachers, parents and business leaders.
Ring said he’s concerned the Common Core standards are making math a matter of debate rather than fact.
“That really concerns me. I think we’re screwing up our kids with that,” he said. “Everything I’ve seen doesn’t look good.”

---

I don't know Ted Ring so I can't comment on him one way or the other.

HD-47 - Aberasturi ends campaign, endorses Dr. Hank Vaupel

Press release from Charlie Aberasturi, now a former candidate of the 47th District

April 16, 2014
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Aberasturi endorses Dr. Hank Vaupel for the 47th District State House of Representatives

HARTLAND, MI - Charlie Aberasturi has announced that he is ending his campaign for the 47th District State House of Representatives.
Aberasturi, of Hartland Township, who has served as a Hartland Board of Education trustee for 16 years, has been actively campaigning for the open position of 47th District State House of Representatives. He will now put his effort toward electing Dr. Hank Vaupel.
“I appreciate the support that has come my way from the Knights of Columbus, Pregnancy Helpline , Right to Life, others in the prolife movement, HAYAA, St. John the Baptist Catholic Church, TRW employees and from school district parents, staff and children,” Aberasturi said.
Aberasturi said he has gotten to know Dr. Vaupel during the campaign and believes Dr. Vaupel is the candidate that is most closely aligned with his philosophy, on how to treat people properly and yet maintain a fiscally conservative outlook.
Aberasturi said. “I encourage my fellow knights, those in the prolife movement, employees and former employees of TRW , those with a concern for children and public schools, to support Hank Vaupel.”
For over 30 years, Aberasturi worked as a manufacturing financial manager for TRW and Kelsey-Hayes. In addition, he has volunteered for Pregnancy Help Clinic, Knights of Columbus, St. John the Baptist Church in Hartland, LACASA, as a coach and board member for the Hartland Area Youth Athletic Association.

Those who would like to volunteer to help Aberasturi in support of Dr. Vaupel may contact the voteVaupel team at VoteVaupel@gmail.com or by calling (517) 375-3904.

We'll see what the fallout is from this.Obviously it's good news for Vaupel on two fronts. One is getting a Hartland endorsement, and the other is leaving the Hartland area wide open.  Aberasturi won Hartland in his 2008 primary against Cindy Denby.Theodore Ring seems to be from the Hartland area, but I have literally no idea who he is. He'll have to get activist if he wants a chance to win.

For ideology, it helps Vaupel with RTL and Catholic votes, although the other candidates are strong with RTL, and Phil Campbell is a very active Catholic in Howell.

This now leaves five people running. Handy Twp Supervisor Dr. Hank Vaupel, Former Howell School Board member Wendy Day, Howell Mayor Phil Campbell, activist Harold Melton, and Theodore Ring.

More State Rep Candidates

There's been more State Rep Candidates who have announced since the last update so I'll mention this.

We have a long list of candidates here running as Republicans for State Rep including two very recent announcements. There may be more. So far the announced/filed candidates are in alphabetical order.
42nd District:
Nick Fiani
Rich Perlberg
Dale Rogers
Lana Theis

47th District:
Charlie Aberasturi
Phil Campbell
Wendy Day
Harold Melton
Theodore Ring
Hank Vaupel

Some of these folks we know. Some we see consistently or at least occasionally at our events. Some we have met once or twice. Some we've never met at all. One candidate I know literally nothing about. Most of these candidates have some sort of records. They have records of statements, donations, writings, and/or voting decisions at their local public offices. I encourage everybody to do their due diligence and look up these records of statements, donations, writings, and/or voting decisions on issues and make your decision based on that. Also make these be known to your primary election voting friends and family who may not be informed. While the 42nd and 47th Districts are considered on paper safe republican, nothing is 100% safe as Joseph Cao showed us in New Orleans, and John Espinoza showed us in Sanilac County (nearly as GOP as Livingston County). We must take this election seriously and nominate the best candidate, one who works hard, will get the base to vote, and also get enough independents to win without alienating the base.

Howell Mayor Phil Campbell jumps into 47th District race

Phil Campbell is the 5th candidate to jump into the 47th District race. He's currently mayor of Howell and recently was unopposed for a 2nd term.

From WHMI:

11/11/13 - Howell Mayor Phil Campbell has announced that he plans to run for the 47th District seat in the Michigan House of Representatives in 2014. The seat is currently held by Cindy Denby, who is term-limited. Campbell says along with continuing his business-focused policies at the state level, he wants to promote limited government and give more power to local municipalities. He joins a growing list of local Republicans interested in the position, including Handy Township Supervisor Hank Vaupel, former Howell School Board Trustee Wendy Day, Hartland School Board Treasurer Charlie Aberasturi, and local business owner Karl Kling. The only Democrat to seek the position so far has been Jordan Genso, who is a member of the FlexTech High School Board of Directors. Campbell was first elected Mayor of Howell in 2011, and this month he ran unopposed for his second term. The 47th House District includes eleven townships in Livingston County as well as the City of Howell. (TD)

Kling dropped out to become head baseball coach of Cleary University. Harold Melton wasn't mentioned and he's running.

I'll have to confirm this, but I'm fairly certain that if Phil wins,  Mayor Pro Tem Allen Schlittler will be the next mayor of Howell and there will be an appointment by the current council for the remaining spot on the city council. There won't be any May/August special election, as there was for county commissioner.

In a 5+ candidate race, anything can happen. Usually the most organized campaign wins. One good thing about this many candidates is that there are plenty of choices in the primary. Hopefully everything stays clean and positive this primary as we have some good candidates.

Dems run a candidate for 47th

The 47th District is going to be an active battle in 2014. The dems announce their first candidate, to go along with the four candidates (Karl Kling dropped out to be Cleary University's first baseball coach - LCRP wishes him well) that have announced on the Republican side.

From the Argus

Former Livingston County Democratic Party chairman Jordan Genso today announced his candidacy for the state House seat currently held by state Rep. Cindy Denby, R-Handy Township.
Denby is term-limited, which has ushered in several potential Republican candidates for the House seat in the highly conservative district.
Genso is the first Democrat to announce candidacy for the seat, which represents the townships of Conway, Cohoctah, Deerfield, Hartland, Howell, Handy, Iosco, Unadilla, Oceola, Marian, and Tyrone; and the city of Howell and part of the city of Fenton.
Genso, a local real estate agent, filed his paperwork this week to form his candidate committee. He said his campaign will promote increasing public education funding; creating a "more sustainable" tax policy; legalizing gay marriage in Michigan; and legalizing marijuana.
“I want to restore a little sanity to our irrational political culture, and I believe we need more politicians that exhibit intellectual honesty. I know that it is cliché, but I am trying to be the change that I want to see in the world," Genso said in a statement.

I've met Jordan a couple of times but I can't say I know him. From what I can see, Jordan strikes me as ambitious and I'm going to take him seriously as a candidate. I don't think he's going to run a lazy campaign. That said, Jordan's got a tough road ahead of him. This district is even more republican than it was for Joe or Cindy with more marginal Putnam and Hamburg now in the 42nd in exchange for base areas in Marion and Oceola Townships. Is it impossible for him to win? Anything can happen if our nominee is a disaster and doesn't work on the campaign trail, and Jordan runs the campaign of his life. Scott Brown's happened in reverse as well. Ask Don Sherwood who lost a solid R district due to having a less than upstanding personal life. If the dems can lose occasionally in a Hawaii congressional district, Massachusetts statewide, and a New Orleans based congressional district, then we can not afford to be arrogant, even in a 63%+ R district. Note to Dr Hank Vaupel, Wendy Day, Harold Melton, and Charlie Aberasturi - we can't get caught looking. If we all do our part and don't badly blunder, we will win. Never underestimate the ability of politicians to badly blunder however. I don't need to rehash history there.

I've heard rumors of more candidates jumping in on the R side. This could easily be another 2002 style of primary here.

Harold Melton - 5th Candidate in the 47th District (HD-47)

In the July 4 Cohoctah and Fowlerville Parades, a 5th candidate jumped into the race and made it official. Harold Melton, a longtime activist and 2012 candidate, is running again.

Here's Harold's statement he sent to me.

My name is Harold Melton from Howell Township. I am running for State Representative from the 47th district. I want to share some of my back-ground with you. Born in Detroit, I’ve been a resident of Howell for 20 years. I am a supporter of Right to Life as well as a Christian family man. I have been married to my wife Karen for 41 years. I’m the father of three grown children, and a grandfather of seven.

I am not your typical politician. I have always been a working man, starting as an equipment installer for Western Electric and then becoming a welder. I’ve worked hard to become a commercial pilot, entering road construction to pay for my aviation training. I learned a lot about following a process over time, becoming certified as a Commercial Pilot on different aircraft. I have served as a Charter Pilot and First Officer on a DC6 Airliner. I took my studies to the next level and began to teach as an FAA Certified Flight Instructor.

I am a strong proponent of the 2nd Amendment. It tells us that "a well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a Free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed." As an NRA Certified fire-arms instructor, I have taught many classes for the Concealed Pistol License, helping citizens "keep and bear Arms" in a responsible fashion. I believe the United States Constitution and State Constitution are the law of the land, to be respected and upheld.

I am a conservative and have been all my life. I’ve been a Republican ever since I realized that the Republican Party stands for a small central government and individual rights. Unfortunately, not all Republicans conform to that wisdom, and that is why I am in the race for this seat to represent you in Lansing.

I believe we need to reduce taxes everywhere we can. To start with, I want to repeal the Senior Pension Tax, and then I will move to convince the Legislature to put some areas of our wealth off limits to taxation. We must limit where the State can tax us. I believe that is the only way to stop the spiral of ever-increasing taxation. Let’s face it, if the State can’t get the money, they will have to cut spending. We can all see that Congress never seems to have enough money. It has to stop somewhere.

I want you to vote for me in the Primary Tuesday, August 5th, 2014, and make me the Republican nominee. Vote for me again on Tuesday, November 4th, 2014 and send me to Lansing. I won’t let you down.

This is now a five way race, and I've heard that two more may be running. It's tough to predict that type of an election. Anything can happen when this many run.

Wendy Day - 4th Candidate to announce for 47th District (HD-47)

I knew Wendy Day was considering a run a long time ago. About three days ago, I did a check on campaign finance filings, and saw she had a committee up and running, along with a website. Today, it's official. This is going to make things quite interesting with the primary, if it hasn't already been interesting already with four candidates in. I wouldn't be shocked to see two more run either.

One thing that everyone can say about Wendy is this. You know where she stands. That's one of her slogans, and certainly true. Anyone familiar with her time on Howell School Board knows that.

From the Argus

Former Howell Public Schools board trustee Wendy Day announced today that she is running for the 47th District House seat.
In making her announcement, Day described herself as a conservative activist and military wife who believes “Michigan citizens, rather than Washington, D.C., know what is best for their families and businesses.”
A long-time activist, Day says she knows how Lansing works and is committed to being a “courageous voice that doesn’t cut back room, good-old-boy deals, with the establishment.”
“We have all been frustrated by politicians who make campaign promises that seem to align with our values, only to have them fail to stand up for those values once they are in office,” she said. “Actions, and votes, speak louder than words. If voters want a courageous voice who will stand against Washington, D.C., it would be an honor to have their support.”
Day fought as a Howell school board trustee to bring transparency and fiscal accountability to the district. She helped develop policies and programs that provided consistent leadership to district employees, more accessibility to the district for parents, and greater transparency to the taxpayers, she said.

The four announced so far are now:

• Wendy Day 
• Dr. Hank Vaupel
• Charlie Aberasturi, 
• Karl Kling 

Primaries are nothing new to the 47th district. In 2008, Cindy Denby won a four way primary. In 2002, Joe Hune won a six way primary. Four have already announced here and all of them are what I'd consider legitimate candidates doing more than just putting their name on the ballot. Three of them have held (or hold) elected office, with the other a former executive director of OCGOP. All have varying experience in business and activism. I encourage all to keep this race clean, do the research, and support their candidate. Let's hope the attack dogs stay calm this primary. It doesn't sell well in this country and tends to backfire.

Charlie Aberasturi runs for 47th district

We have a third candidate already announced for the 47th District. Joining Dr. Hank Vaupel (Handy Twp) and Karl Kling (Howell) is Charlie Aberasturi out of Hartland Township.From his press release:

Charlie Aberasturi, MBA, Hartland Consolidated Schools Board Treasurer, announces his candidacy for Michigan’s 47th House District seat, currently filled by Cindy Denby.  Charlie is running as a GOP candidate.  This seat opens in 2014, because Denby is term-limited.

Charlie has worked 34 years in financial positions for TRW/Kelsey-Hayes in the automotive manufacturing industry.  A majority of his time was spent at TRW locations, creating jobs for people in Livingston County.  He held several financial positions as financial controller; forecasting, maintaining budgets and planning for the future.  He currently supports with his time and talent by volunteering at; Pregnancy Help Clinic, CASA, and St. John the Baptist Catholic Church.  He has served on the Hartland Consolidated Schools Board of Education for 16 years.  He has been a member of the Hartland Knights of Columbus for over 20 years. He was involved with the HAYAA organization as coach and board member.  He taught business classes at Eastern Michigan University.

Charlie and his wife Sue have lived in Hartland for 23 years.  They have 2 children, Sarah and Dan, who attend Michigan State University.

Charlie is running on the platform of “Invest in the Future.”

Charlie ran in 2008, finishing 2nd (I think he won Hartland) to Cindy Denby in the large primary field. There's no shame in that, since Cindy was a very strong candidate. What will be interesting is if the 2014 primary shapes a bit like the 2002 primary with people voting their region to a large extent. Population growth does change the dynamics a little if there's a repeat and similar patterns. This is going to be an interesting primary.

Nobody has officially announced for the 42nd District, although I expect that to change soon.That's going to be interesting as well. 

Both the 42nd and 47th are open seats due to term limits. 

Karl Kling also announces for the 47th District (HD-47)

I just saw this in the Argus. I knew he had a Bureau of Elections committee up, but I was waiting for a formal announcement before commenting.

Michigan Sports Academy-Livingston owner Karl Kling has announced his candidacy for Michigan’s 47th House District seat, currently filled by state Rep. Cindy Denby, R-Handy Township.
Kling is running as a GOP candidate for the seat, which is open in 2014 because Denby is term-limited.
He owns Michigan Sports Academy-Livingston, 760 McPherson Park Drive in Howell. The business is an indoor baseball and softball training facility. Kling is also a former Milford Times editor.

I don't know Karl Kling and found out what I could quickly. I saw his linkedin profile and saw he was active out in Oakland County politics for awhile and a writer with the South Lyon Herald. He was the chief of staff of Nancy Cassis and the Communications Director and later Executive Director for the OCRP. He lasted over a term as ED after the two years turnover, so he showed something they liked. His wife is/was Joe and Marty Knollenberg's treasurer so there are some strong political connections in the family, probably from the time with OCRP.

He's a relative stranger to Livingston County Politics to a large extent however which is much different and still more small town oriented than Oakland. With his baseball involvement, he's not a stranger to the Howell area community which values athletics. The question is if he can apply what he learned in Oakland to here, and get his baseball folks all behind him this campaign.

I expect Dr Vaupel to use the Joe Hune/Cindy Denby tried and true strategy for the district. If both of these candidates work like they are probably capable of working, it should be a good race. I haven't seen of any other names on the list.

Since I'm County Chair, I won't be making an endorsement in this primary except to say that either Hank Vaupel, Karl Kling, or someone else that wins will have tough shoes to full. Joe and Cindy both did a very good job in the 47th. That won't be easy to replace.

Good luck to both candidates, and I hope it's a good clean primary.