Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 15

State Senate - District 15

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Nancy Cassis (Novi), Christopher Patrick Maloney (Northville)
Democrat Candidates – Ray Raczkowski (Novi)

Current Rep – Nancy Cassis (R-Novi)

2002 Results
Nancy Cassis – 60.47%
Sean Carlson – 37.07%

Presidential results:
Bush – 55.56%
Kerry – 43.56%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Oakland County: - Commerce Township, Highland Township, Holly Township, Lyon Township, Milford Township, Northville, Novi, Novi Township, Orchard Lake,
Rose Township, South Lyon, Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Township, White Lake Township, Wixom

This district covers most of Western Oakland County and has some of the most GOP areas of the county in Highland, Milford, and Lyon Twp(all 62%+ GOP). Those three areas are part of Oakland County, but have politics more in line with Livingston County than the political pundits description of Oakland County which has places like Farmington Hills in mind.

Most of this district took a right turn, but not all of it. Holly and Rose Township have taken right turns recently after being more friendly to democrats (due to their proximity to Genesee County) in the past. Holly flipped, and both Holly and Rose gained 5% for Bush between 2000 and 2004. The Livingston border areas all moved right. Rose, Highland, Milford, and Lyon Townships all gained at least 2.5% for Bush, most gained 4% or more. White Lake next to Highland also gained 4½% Commerce next to White Lake and Milford gained 3%. Walled Lake flipped from Gore to Bush with a 3% gain. Solidly democrat West Bloomfield stayed democrat, but Bush gained 2% there over his 2000 numbers.

The left turns came in Northville, Orchard Lake Wixom and Novi. Bush lost 3½ % in Northville (Dems gained 4%) and stayed about the same in Novi (While the dems gained almost 2%). Novi and Northville are becoming more urbanized, and their proximity to Farmington Hills is influencing their politics. Both parties gained in Wixom, but the dems more than the GOP. Wixom has a large apartment community, which probably accounts of much of the gains for the dems. Orchard Lake was a 4% gain for the democrats and 1½ for Bush. Orchard Lake is closer to the Bloomfields where Bush lost much of his ground in Oakland as the affluent moved more towards the democrats while middle class moved more towards the GOP.

Overall, this is a solid GOP district. Only West Bloomfield went democrat in 2004, and most of the rest of the district is still mostly GOP strongholds, even the areas where the GOP lost ground. Holly and Walled Lake were narrowing democrat in 2000, but moved toward the right and flipped in 04. The fastest growing area is the Livingston borderlands, which all went 60%+ GOP. Nancy Cassis won with 60% in 2000, and will likely do so again in 2004.

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