Saturday, April 30, 2005

State Senate - District 31

State Senate - District 31

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Zack Nuncio (Bay City)
Democrat Candidates – Jim Barcia (Bay City)

Current Rep – Jim Barcia (D-Bay City)

2002 Results
Jim Barcia – 60.50%
Mike Green – 39.50%

Presidential results:
Bush – 50.98%
Kerry – 47.98%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
All of Arenac, Bay, Tuscola, Huron, and Sanilac Counties

Kent County – Grandville and Sparta Township

This is about the only Bush won district I am calling safe democrat. It would be a tossup district, except that Jim Barcia is personally popular here. Barcia’s a moderate democrat who is pro-life and pro-2nd amendment and fit the district well. He represented this area in congress, and redistricted carved up the thumb.district, giving most of it to Candice Miller, Northern Bay County and Arenac County to Bart Stupak, and throwing Bay City and Tuscola County is a Flint based district with Dale Kildee. Barcia had three options. He could have run against Dale Kildee, run against Bart Stupak, or go back to the State Senate. He chose the last option, which is too bad since Mike Green’s a good guy. Green was a state rep from Tuscola County most known for writing the Conceal Carry Law. He was the best possible candidate we could run here, but Barcia’s crossover appeal was too much for Green to deal with. This time, Barcia faces Zack Nuncio, a college student in Bay City.

This will be a major battle in 2010. Bay County is solidly democrat and has 40% of the vote. Arenac County leans democrat, but it is small in population. Tuscola leans Republican, but will vote person over party. Huron and Sanilac Counties are solidly Republican and combine for over 1/3 of the vote. That makes this a 50/50 district in most cases. These are all more populist areas, so people like Barcia and Green do best.


AuH2ORepublican said...

I assume Barcia will be term-limited in 2010? I hope Kildee retires and endorses Barcia in the safely Democrat 5th CD; Barcia was one of my favorite Democrats in Congress, solidly pro-life and pro-gun and by no means a socialist.

Dan said...

Barcia's termed out in 2010. Kildee would be 81 years old then.