Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 20

State Senate - District 20

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Tom George (Portage)
Democrat Candidates – Alexander Lipsey (Kalamazoo)

Current Rep – Tom George (R-Portage)

2002 Results
Tom George – 56.53%
Ed LaForge – 43.47%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 51.04%
Bush – 47.96%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly Leans Republican

District covers:
All of Kalamazoo County
Van Buren County – Antwerp and Paw Paw Townships

The district covers all of Kalamazoo and Paw Paw and Antwerp Townships in Van Buren County.

This is almost a reverse effect of District 19, the Schauer district. This is a 51% Kerry district, so we could have a race here. Tom George is a very strong incumbent who won big in 2002 against a good candidate in Ed LaForge. Unlike Schauer, George did not dodge a bullet and has to face another state rep in Alexander Lipsey. George beat LaForge handily, so he knows how to win tough campaigns.

Lipsey originally was running for Attorney General, but was talked into running for senate instead. He has a strong Kalamazoo City base. Tom George has a base in Portage. Kalamazoo County leans slightly democrat at the top of the ticket due to the city, but the county is republican leaning outside of the city. If George gets enough suburban vote out in a non-presidential year, he should win. If Western Michigan University repeats its performance of 2004, George is in big trouble.

Like Schauer’s district, I’m calling it slightly leaning towards the incumbent, but this one will be a big battle.

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