Sunday, May 01, 2005

State Senate - District 38

State Senate - District 38

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Pete Makkin (Watton)
Democrat Candidates – Michael Prusi (Marquette)
Current Rep – Michael Prusi (D-Marquette)

2002 Results
Michael Prusi – 60.83%
David Schoenow – 39.14%

Presidential results:
Bush – 50.79%
Kerry – 48.01%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Alger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Marquette, Menominee, Onontagon, and Schoolcraft Counties

This is another case of being a Bush district and not a Republican District. In fact this district leans social conservative democrat. There is a strong democrat tradition here, more in the old “Hubert Humphrey” mold than the “John Kerry/George Soros” mold. This area is economically populist and more social conservative. They also vote for reps who bring home the bacon. Joe Mack was a master of that and represented this area for years. Dominic Jacobetti is another master on that and was a UP state rep. There is also a union presence, and a large number of state workers, especially in corrections. Pro-life and pro-2nd amendment democrats who are union members usually do best here.

About ¼ of the district is Marquette giving the district its democrat lean. Gogebic, Alger, Iron, and Schoolcraft Counties also all lean democrat. Houghton leans more Republican. Menonimee County leans slightly republican unless Stupak runs. Delta County used to be solid democrat, but not as much as it used to be.

This district IS winnable, but will be one of the last dominoes to fall if the UP realigns consistantly as two republican leaning counties (Mackinac/Chippewa) are in the 37th instead. Tom Casperson may be able to give this a strong contest in 2010, although the Congressional district is easier to win (if open) than this one.

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