Sunday, May 01, 2005

State Senate - District 37

State Senate - District 37

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Jason Allen (Traverse City)
Democrat Candidates – Donald Collier (Interlochen), Sharon Unger (Bellaire)
Current Rep - Jason Allen (R-Traverse City)

2002 Results
Jason Allen – 59.87%
Michael Estes – 40.13%

Presidential results:
Bush – 58.15%
Kerry – 40.72%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle Counties

This district could be a sleeper when geography is involved and one candidate is a popular yooper, but that is not the case this time as both democrats are near the Lake Michigan coast. While the 36th District was more of a Bush district than a Republican district, this one is a republican district as much as a Bush District. Emmet, Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, and Grand Traverse Counties are solidly Republican for anyone not named Stupak. Mackinac and Chippewa Counties are more Republican friendly than the rest of the UP. Presque Isle is a swing county downticket, slightly leaning our way at the top. The only way the democrats can make this a contest, is when a republican really blunders on a gun issue (splitting the party), and when the democrat comes from the north side of the bridge.

Jason Allen is a strong incumbent and actually won both U.P. counties in his first race, despite being from Traverse City. He also won 2-1 his home County, which has 1/3 of the population in the district. He only lost Presque Isle County, the 2nd smallest county in the district, which identifies more with the Alpena area than the Lake Michigan side of the district.

This district should be safe in 2006.

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