Sunday, May 01, 2005

Alcona County - Profile

Alcona County:
Location - Northeastern Lower Michigan:
Population - 11,610
Demographics - 98% White, .2% Black, .6% American Indian, .2% Asian, .1% Some other Race, .9% Two or more races, .7% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat - Harrisville (pop 514)

Alcona County is a rural county in Northeast Michigan. It is a marginally GOP county at the state level, and competitive at the local level. It is South of Alpena, East of Mio, and North of Oscoda. It is on the coast of Lake Huron.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressman - Bart Stupak (D), 1st District
State Senator - Tony Stamas (R), 36th District
State Rep - Matt Gillard (D), 106th District

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)

Governor - John Engler (R) - 69.17%, Geoff Fieger (D) - 30.75%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) - 71.21%, Mary Lou Parks (D) - 27.80%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) - 56.25%, Jennifer Granholm (D) - 43.75%
Congress (5th District) - James Barcia (D) - 55.28%, Donald Brewster (R) - 43.54%
State Senator (37th District) - Walt North (R) - 63.65%, Kay Ann Chase (D) - 36.35%
State Representative (105th District) - Ken Bradstreet (R) - 65.00%, Elaine Felts (D) - 35.00%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) - 58.11%, Debbie Stabenow (D) - 39.91%
Congress (5th District) - James Barcia (D) - 61.14%, Ronald Actis (R) - 37.94%
State Representative (105th District) - Ken Bradstreet (R) - 61.96%, Tony Hefner (D) - 38.04%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor - Dick Posthumus (R) - 52.04, Jennifer Granholm (D) - 47.20
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) - 58.90%, Butch Hollowell (D) - 40.23%
Attorney General - Mike Cox (R) - 51.85%, Gary Peters (D) - 46.86%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) - 56.90%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) - 42.26%
Congress (1st District) - Bart Stupak (D) - 61.52%, Don Hooper (R) - 37.88%
State Senate (36th District) - Andy Neumann (D) - 56.12%, Tony Stamas (R) - 43.88%
State Representative (106th) - Matt Gillard (D) - 50.52%, David Wyman (R) - 49.48%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress (1st District) - Bart Stupak (D) - 59.80%, Don Hooper (R) - 39.14%
State Representative (106th) - Matt Gillard (D) - 56.54%, Richard Fortier (R) - 43.46%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

ALCONA COUNTY
2000 Bush - 3152 (52.56%), Gore - 2696 (44.96%)
2004 Bush - 3592 (55.00%), Kerry - 2871 (43.96%)

Alcona Township
2000 - 398 (54.52%), 318 (43.56%)
2004 - 439 (55.57%), 346 (43.80%)

Caledonia Township
2000 - 347 (51.79%), 309 (46.12%)
2004 - 369 (52.12%), 330 (46.61%)

Curtis Township
2000 - 277 (44.25%), 333 (53.19%)
2004 - 324 (46.82%), 358 (51.73%)

Greenbush Township
2000 - 408 (53.68%), 335 (44.08%)
2004 - 457 (56.14%), 345 (42.38%)

Gustin Township
2000 - 197 (55.18%), 153 (42.86%)
2004 - 233 (59.29%), 158 (40.20%)

Harrisville City
2000 - 118 (44.03%), 140 (52.24%)
2004 - 143 (49.31%), 144 (49.66%)

Harrisville Township
2000 - 429 (58.93%), 279 (38.32%)
2004 - 498 (60.29%), 323 (39.10%)

Hawes Township
2000 - 260 (44.52%), 306 (52.40%)
2004 - 307 (49.68%), 303 (49.03%)

Haynes Township
2000 - 243 (58.13%), 165 (39.47%)
2004 - 247 (53.70%), 208 (45.22%)

Mikado Township
2000 - 241 (58.92%), 157 (38.39%)
2004 - 275 (61.80%), 167 (37.53%)

Millen Township
2000 - 116 (51.33%), 105 (46.46%)
2004 - 134 (58.77%), 93 (40.79%)

Mitchell Township
2000 - 118 (53.39%), 96 (43.44%)
2004 - 166 (62.17%), 96 (35.96%)

Alcona County is a ticket splitting county. They do not care much for "Washington" democrats very much with the exception of Carl Levin who is an institution. Levin does well statewide. 1998 was an exceptional Republican year here with Geoffrey Fieger on the ticket. Dick Posthumus won here, although by a narrower margin than President Bush.

Redistricting drastically changed the districts in Alcona. District 5 pre-redistrict is a Saginaw/Bay City based district represented by Moderate Democrat James Barcia. It stretched from the thumb to Alpena and was a socially conservative populist district which is a good fit for Barcia. Redistricting placed Alcona County with the UP based 1st district represented by Bart Stupak. It is close to a 50/50 district by statewide numbers, but has a bit of a democrat tilt to the local level. If Stupak retires, District 1 will be a big race, and Alcona will be a key county in the fight.

Redistricting placed Alcona in a district stretching from Alpena to Midland. It is a close district which Tony Stamas won narrowly. It originally was in a St Ignace based district.

Ken Bradstreet was an Otsego County state representative which is a good fit for this district. Resditricting placed Alcona County in an Alpena based district. Pro Second Amendment Alpena Democrats Andy Neumann and Matt Gillard both won here big.

In 2008, I suspect the GOP to win here again if the dems cough up another leftist with no blue collar appeal. Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are two examples. However, this county is winnable for the democrats if they run a Pro-Second Amendment (not "Can I get me a huntin' license" John Kerry) candidate. They will vote for people like Gillard and Neumann in open seats. Incumbency is a major factor in this county as well, shown by President Bush and Rep. Matt Gillard's improvements in 2004.

2 comments:

V the K said...

You have to dig pretty deep into Bart Stupak's official webpage to find out his party affiliation (D). One suspects he considers his association with the Democrats a liability to his district.

A strong R could take that House seat.

Republican Michigander said...

The only way Stupak loses is if there's another 1994 and also a perfect local storm.

Stupak survived 94(when it was a GOP leaning district), and survived PO'ing the NRA back in 2000. He plays up his maverick independent streak, and has very strong constituent service. I know several independents (usually Libertarian, sometimes R, occasional D) up there who voted for him because he answers emails. He's also a Yooper, and they vote for their own.

I think we could win this in an open seat, but we'd need to run a yooper to win. Anyone from the Lake Michigan coast doesn't have a chance.