Sunday, May 15, 2005

State House - District 19

State House - District 19

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – John Pastor (Livonia)
Democrat Candidates – Brian Duggan, Patrick O’Neil (all Livonia)

Current Rep – John Pastor (R-Livonia)

2004 Results
John Pastor – 53.13%
Joan Gebhardt – 46.87%

Presidential results:
Bush – 54.36%
Kerry – 44.64%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Leans Republican

District covers:
Livonia

This district could be a sleeper. Livonia has gone democrat before (Ed McNamara was once mayor here), but has been consistently 53-54% Republican at the top of the ticket, and more so for state rep and congressional candidates.

I don’t know what happened in John Pastor’s case. Joan Gebhardt ran ahead of John Kerry and unexpectedly only lost by 6-7%. The last three democrats all finished between 44-45% in Livonia at the top of the ticket.

One think I wonder is if Brian Duggan is any relation to former Wayne County Prosecutor Mike Duggan (also from Livonia)? I’m assuming he is until I hear otherwise, and assume that the dems are heavily targeting Livonia and this district. Due to Pastor’s relatively close call in 04, I’m calling this leans Republican for now. I may move it to toss-up or safe at some point.

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