Thursday, April 19, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 99 (HD-99)

State House - District 99
Current Rep - Kevin Cotter (R - Mt. Pleasant)

Candidates:
GOP - Kevin Cotter (R- Mt Pleasant)
Dem - Adam Lawrence (D-Mt Pleasant)

Old District (99th)
Kevin Cotter - 16,647
Toni Sessions - 9,202


This is a swing district, despite the dems being unable to take this after several competitive races fights the last 12 years. That's due to the hard left shift in academia overall. Rural Isabella County is also marginal GOP overall, as is rural Midland County. This district reminds me of the last decade's Sheltrown District in reverse. It's one that should have been ours, but the GOP was unable to take it until 2010 in a wave year. The difference is that the dems haven't quite done it. I expect there to be tough challenges but good defenses as well as Cotter was a strong candidate like the Cauls. This district is historically GOP going back to the Engler years. The dems came closes in a Clare/Isabella district in 2000, losing by 900 votes, and losing by 1000 votes in 1998.

The new district keeps all of Isabella County and makes some changes in rural Midland County. It picks up Mt Haley and Ingersoll Twps from the Midland district, and drops Jerome, Lee, and Lincoln Twps. The bulk of the district is still Isabella County, and that makes this a competitive district. Obama number from 08 I take for what they are - a big win in a wave year against a guy who quit the state. John Kerry almost won this district though. If downticket starts matching presidential numbers, we're in trouble. If Mt Pleasant become East Lansing, Marquette, or even Kalamazoo, this district will be very tough to hang on to. That's why I consider this a swing district.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Isabella County 11220 16679 27899 -5459 40.22% 59.78% -19.57%
Midland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Coleman 251 280 531 -29 47.27% 52.73% -5.46%
Edenville Twp 693 637 1330 56 52.11% 47.89% 4.21%
Geneva Twp 260 255 515 5 50.49% 49.51% 0.97%
Greendale Twp 380 365 745 15 51.01% 48.99% 2.01%
Hope Twp 396 333 729 63 54.32% 45.68% 8.64%
Ingersoll Twp 823 621 1444 202 56.99% 43.01% 13.99%
Jasper Twp 226 292 518 -66 43.63% 56.37% -12.74%
Mills Twp 437 460 897 -23 48.72% 51.28% -2.56%
Mt Haley Twp 425 436 861 -11 49.36% 50.64% -1.28%
Porter Twp 329 271 600 58 54.83% 45.17% 9.67%
Warren Twp 518 469 987 49 52.48% 47.52% 4.96%



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Total 15958 21098 37056 -5140 43.06% 56.94% -13.87%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Isabella County 11754 12334 24088 -580 48.80% 51.20% -2.41%
Midland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Coleman 259 263 522 -4 49.62% 50.38% -0.77%
Edenville Twp 734 570 1304 164 56.29% 43.71% 12.58%
Geneva Twp 282 247 529 35 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Greendale Twp 414 304 718 110 57.66% 42.34% 15.32%
Hope Twp 418 323 741 95 56.41% 43.59% 12.82%
Ingersoll Twp 853 628 1481 225 57.60% 42.40% 15.19%
Jasper Twp 248 231 479 17 51.77% 48.23% 3.55%
Mills Twp 429 445 874 -16 49.08% 50.92% -1.83%
Mt Haley Twp 523 403 926 120 56.48% 43.52% 12.96%
Porter Twp 317 268 585 49 54.19% 45.81% 8.38%
Warren Twp 535 448 983 87 54.43% 45.57% 8.85%



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Total 16766 16464 33230 302 50.45% 49.55% 0.91%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Isabella County 9753 6075 15828 3678 61.62% 38.38% 23.24%
Isabella County

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Midland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Coleman 208 100 308 108 67.53% 32.47% 35.06%
Edenville Twp 554 293 847 261 65.41% 34.59% 30.81%
Geneva Twp 237 117 354 120 66.95% 33.05% 33.90%
Greendale Twp 340 120 460 220 73.91% 26.09% 47.83%
Hope Twp 330 164 494 166 66.80% 33.20% 33.60%
Ingersoll Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Jasper Twp 199 111 310 88 64.19% 35.81% 28.39%
Mills Twp 383 222 605 161 63.31% 36.69% 26.61%
Mt Haley Twp

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Porter Twp 259 101 360 158 71.94% 28.06% 43.89%
Warren Twp 472 199 671 273 70.34% 29.66% 40.69%



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Total 12735 7502 20237 5233 62.93% 37.07% 25.86%

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