Wednesday, April 25, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 101 (HD-101)

State House - District 101
Current Rep - Ray Franz (R - Onekama Twp)

GOP - Ray Franz (R-Onekama Twp)
Dem -  Allen O'Shea (D-Copemish)

Update 5-27-2012 - Interesting matchup here. Scripps doesn't want a rematch, which makes things easier. Bailey was originally going to run against Benishek in CD-01, but didn't want to face McDowell in a primary, which is a smart move since he's a troll below the bridge. However, there's still a big geography matchup here. Bailey is from Leelanau County, and O'Shea from Manistee County. Fallout from that could help Franz. I'd still rate this a tossup. Nothing Up North comes easy.

Update 8-30-2012 - O'Shea won the primary narrowly. He lost Benzie and Leelanau counties to Bailey, but won Mason county and won big in Manistee County. 

Old District (101st)
Ray Franz -19,386
Dan Scripps- 18,495

This district remains unchanged for the 2nd straight redistricting cycle and is a swing district that flipped twice in 08 and 2010. The district covers the Lake Michigan Coastline. Manistee, Mason, Benzie, and Leelanau Counties. All the counties can be competitive, with Manistee County the most democrat leaning with some union leanings. There's a bit of a Chicago influence on the coast itself here, particularly Ludington and Leelanau County. Leelanau County has been treading democrat lately as well, I suspect from Ann Arbor/Chicago retirees and some overlap from Traverse City yuppies. It's no longer really a GOP base county, although certainly winnable.

From 2002 to 2008, the district was held by David Palsrok. Dan Scripps won the open seat flipping it to the dems. Ray Franz won a rematch with Scripps in 2010.In 2000, David Mead won his third term by 6000 votes, but lost Mason County, normally the most Republican county in the district. Mason County went for Bush that same year. In 2002,  Palsrok won the open seat by 3000, but lost Mason County. Palsrok swept the district in 2004, winning by 5500. 2006 was a close call against Dan Scripps. Palsrok won by 1600, losing Leelanau County, and barely winning Manistee and Benzie Counties. Mason was the big county for Palsrok. Scripps absolutely demolished Ray Franz in 2008, but lost to him in 2010 once Scripps got himself a voting record.

Presidential wise, this district went for Bush twice and Obama once. Manistee County voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama. The rest of them went for Bush twice and Obama.  I don't know how this one is going to go in 2012. I'm adding the 2008 numbers for St House here as well as 2008 and 2010 were a matchup with the same people. Ray Franz and  Dan Scripps.

This is going to be a district to watch in 2012. Nothing up North comes easy, although much of this district has very different types of up north voters than the ones in Sheltrown's old district.

McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 4687 5451 10138 -764 46.23% 53.77% -7.54%
Leelanau County 6936 7355 14291 -419 48.53% 51.47% -2.93%
Manistee County 5510 7235 12745 -1725 43.23% 56.77% -13.53%
Mason County 7147 7817 14964 -670 47.76% 52.24% -4.48%

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Total 24280 27858 52138 -3578 46.57% 53.43% -6.86%

Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 5284 4393 9677 891 54.60% 45.40% 9.21%
Leelanau County 7733 6048 13781 1685 56.11% 43.89% 12.23%
Manistee County 6295 6272 12567 23 50.09% 49.91% 0.18%
Mason County 8124 6333 14457 1791 56.19% 43.81% 12.39%

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Total 27436 23046 50482 4390 54.35% 45.65% 8.70%

Last St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 3791 3704 7495 87 50.58% 49.42% 1.16%
Leelanau County 5881 5433 11314 448 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Manistee County 4483 4576 9059 -93 49.49% 50.51% -1.03%
Mason County 5231 4782 10013 449 52.24% 47.76% 4.48%

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Total 19386 18495 37881 891 51.18% 48.82% 2.35%

2008 St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 3962 6108 10070 -2146 39.34% 60.66% -21.31%
Leelanau County 5896 8120 14016 -2224 42.07% 57.93% -15.87%
Manistee County 5093 7694 12787 -2601 39.83% 60.17% -20.34%
Mason County 5827 9062 14889 -3235 39.14% 60.86% -21.73%

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Total 20778 30984 51762 -10206 40.14% 59.86% -19.72%


ReaderDownstate said...

This may be the one district outside Oakland or Grosse Pointe, where a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage Republican could win.

Republican Michigander said...

If this was limited to Leelanau County, I'd maybe almost agree since you said could win, although even there I think Michelle McManus would still have no problems winning there, although her agricultural ties help.

I still don't think a pro-choice, specially outspokenly pro-choice Republican can win much of anything outside of Birmingham or Royal Oak these days. Pro-gay marriage maybe, as long as he/she's quiet about it and good on other issues like guns.

Even Dan Scripps (D) voted pro-gun. Shirley Johnson types (anti-gun, and even more anti-hunting) are limited to being able to win Royal Oak, Farmington Hills, maybe the Bloomfields, and Birmingham, and maybe Grosse Pointe. Even in most of Oakland, those issues are losers outside of those areas. West and North Oakland aren't that much different than Livingston County.

Up North, there's a strong coastal vs interior dynamic, even in the coastal counties. What sells on the affluent coast, doesn't usually sell in the more blue collar interior. The interior usually has slightly more pull because oftentimes the vacation home residents don't vote outside of retirees. That hurts both the interior and coastal areas, but the interior more. Several family members have places up north. Only one household votes there and they live up there year round.

I'm not as familiar with Benzie, Ludington, or Manistee as I am Leelanau, but all those areas have different dynamics. I think Manistee is more union dem. Ludington more conservative. Benzie I'm blind. Leelanau a mix, but largely affluent.