Wednesday, April 18, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 97 (HD-97)

State House - District 97
Current Rep - Joel Johnson (R - Clare)

Candidates:
GOP - Joel Johnson (R-Clare)
Dem - Chris Breznau (D-Standish)


Old District (97th)
Joel Johnson - 16,818
Mark Lightfoot - 10,657

I always nothing say comes easy Up North. It's a highly independent area which is often underestimated by both parties. Oftentimes control of the house is decided not in Oakland County or Macomb County, but here and in the thumb.

The old 97th District was a key battleground. It was created in 2002 to elect a republican, but Jennifer Elkins caught our side looking. Tradition carried the day. She then voted against a gay marriage ban. While she didn't tick off the gun groups, religious conservatives are strong in the district. Tim Moore got a big win in 2004 and held on in the 2006 and 2008 tough defenses. Joel Johnson won big in 2010, but this still isn't safe. The North Michigan electorate is still quite volatile right now.

The new district is safer, but I still can not call this safe. It's a swing district. The old district had all of Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, and most of rural Bay County outside the City. All of those areas are competitive with a bit of democrat leaning in Bay and Arenac. In 2002, Elkins won narrowly in Arenac, Bay, and Gladwin Counties, and won by 363 votes. In 2004, Tim Moore won by about 1500 based on Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. He only lost Bay. Arenac went for Kerry, so Moore ran ahead there. He won 2006 by about 2500 votes, only losing Bay. Moore won surprisingly easily in 2008. In 2010, the dems were crushed in this region, and Johnson won easily.

I'm not convinced 2010 wasn't an aberration Up North. It's too independent. The new district drops rural Bay County and adds a portion of much more Republican Osceola County, which is a base county. On paper, this is slightly less conservative or Republican as the old Dale/Joel Sheltrown districts next door, although Osceola isn't a Missaukee County. The GOP thought they had a shot there, but those were two extremely strong candidates. If the dems find a Sheltrown type or a Barcia type here, they can win this thing.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County 3807 4155 7962 -348 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Clare County 6793 7496 14289 -703 47.54% 52.46% -4.92%
Gladwin County 6391 6590 12981 -199 49.23% 50.77% -1.53%
Osceola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Evart 316 357 673 -41 46.95% 53.05% -6.09%
Evart Twp 371 329 700 42 53.00% 47.00% 6.00%
Hersey Twp 433 432 865 1 50.06% 49.94% 0.12%
Highland Twp 363 192 555 171 65.41% 34.59% 30.81%
Marion Twp 389 332 721 57 53.95% 46.05% 7.91%
Middle Branch Twp 215 161 376 54 57.18% 42.82% 14.36%
Orient Twp 213 174 387 39 55.04% 44.96% 10.08%
Osceola Twp 290 221 511 69 56.75% 43.25% 13.50%
Sherman Twp 334 215 549 119 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Sylvan Twp 230 224 454 6 50.66% 49.34% 1.32%



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Total 20145 20878 41023 -733 49.11% 50.89% -1.79%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County 4071 4076 8147 -5 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Clare County 7088 6984 14072 104 50.37% 49.63% 0.74%
Gladwin County 6770 6343 13113 427 51.63% 48.37% 3.26%
Osceola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Evart 375 320 695 55 53.96% 46.04% 7.91%
Evart Twp 465 333 798 132 58.27% 41.73% 16.54%
Hersey Twp 461 404 865 57 53.29% 46.71% 6.59%
Highland Twp 408 138 546 270 74.73% 25.27% 49.45%
Marion Twp 423 277 700 146 60.43% 39.57% 20.86%
Middle Branch Twp 228 169 397 59 57.43% 42.57% 14.86%
Orient Twp 231 177 408 54 56.62% 43.38% 13.24%
Osceola Twp 257 200 457 57 56.24% 43.76% 12.47%
Sherman Twp 339 179 518 160 65.44% 34.56% 30.89%
Sylvan Twp 272 199 471 73 57.75% 42.25% 15.50%



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Total 21388 19799 41187 1589 51.93% 48.07% 3.86%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Arenac County 2878 1899 4777 979 60.25% 39.75% 20.49%
Clare County 5775 3179 8954 2596 64.50% 35.50% 28.99%
Gladwin County 5272 3236 8508 2036 61.97% 38.03% 23.93%
Osceola County:

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Evart

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Evart Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hersey Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Highland Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Marion Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Middle Branch Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Orient Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Osceola Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sherman Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sylvan Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



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Total 13925 8314 22239 5611 62.62% 37.38% 25.23%

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