Areas to watch in Michigan for Election Day Results

Who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Here's the current score. 0-0. All of the state level seats are up for contest, except some trustee and judicial seats.

We're playing offense on the state house a mix of offense and defense on the state senate, as well as the statewide and congressional seats. All of the areas are important, but there are a few counties to keep an eye on for the seats in play.

1. Parts of the UP, particularly Chippewa, Mackinac, Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, and Iron Counties. Those are competitive counties, but three seats, maybe four or five if we're super lucky, are in play up there. Dan Benishek in MI-01, Tom Casperson for State Senate in the 38th district, and possibly three state rep seats up there, although I think we have a good chance at one of them. Iron County leans slightly democrat, but Benishek is from there. Chippewa and Mackinac slightly Republican, but McDowell's from there. The triangle of Menominee, Dickinson, and Delta counties swing the UP, and will be the biggest factor in who wins this congressional district. I think Beniskek wins this seat narrowly. 49-47-5 for 3rd parties.

2. Kent County. We have a tough defense for state senate here and a darkhorse defense for Ehlers seat. Some of the old time Kent County establishment Republicans are often "different" and are much more liberal (outside the life issue) than the average population. It's not an accident than Kent County local government has been one of the five most anti-gun counties in the state. The establishment there is rather hostile to small l libertarianism. That is making it more difficult than the past for this defense. I think this year though was the right year for a principled libertarian-conservative like Justin Amash. He's getting a battle in the general, although his convincing primary win sent a strong message to the establishment there. The people are in charge, not the self-proclaimed elite. I think Amash wins by 10-15% (my gut feeling, no poll evidence). It's not Ehlers numbers, but it'll be in line with an average top of the ticket (Snyder should do better here - 25% win there since he'll get the Ehlers type votes as well as conservatives because of Virg). I think 08's an aberration. I do think Amash does better in Barry and Ionia County though, than Kent County. We need a 60% win though for Johnson and Schuette.

3. Jackson County. Jackson County is what I'd classify as conservative independent. It's important statewide. It's populist, socially conservative, and distrustful of both big government and big business. It has both democrat strongholds (City of Jackson) and republican strongholds (Spring Arbor), but even in those strongholds, there's a lot of independents. As Jackson County goes, usually so does the 7th Congressional district. Jackson voted against the incumbent in 2006 primary and in 2008. Can Walberg win back Jackson County? If he does, he'll likely win. If not, Schauer will survive. There's also two key state rep districts based in Jackson County. Those will be key if the GOP is taking back the house. 55%+ would be real good.

4. Monroe County. It's a swing County that voted for Gore, Posthumus, Bush, Granholm, and Obama. Dingell's won there with big margins as well. If Dr Rob Steele (best candidate in a long time) is going to upset Dingell, he'll need to get big numbers in this part of the district, probably close to 60%. There's also two potentially competitive state rep districts here too. It's a must win county statewide. 53% would be real good.

5. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield, Waterford, Royal Oak, Clawson. Those are all key in Oakland County. If Royal Oak and West Bloomfield are close (I expect them to stay dem, but to what degree), we could be looking at blowouts and you can say an early congratulations to Congressman Rocky, and one if not two new GOP state reps. If Farmington Hills and Clawson is close (if they're going GOP, Rocky wins), it could be a long night with potential recounts, but promising results for Rocky (he'll need big help from Troy then). If Waterford is more populist and close, but has trended GOP lately outside of the 06/08 disasters. I'd like to see a win in Farmington Hills, 46%+ in West Bloomfield, 54%+ in Waterford, 46%+ in Royal Oak, and a win in Clawson. I think any of those will assure a pickup.

6. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, St Clair Shores. Those are three of the key areas in Macomb County. Those will determine who wins Macomb County overall, and in Clinton Twp's case, probably who'll take the state. There's three, maybe four if lucky, competitive state rep districts there. There's a fifth competitive seat in North Macomb that was lost in the 2008 clustermuck (Despite McCain winning the district). That one should be ours. I'd like to see 53%+ in S. Heights, and a win of any margin in Clinton Township and St Clair Shores

7. Lake Michigan Coast - Can we stop the 06/08 bleeding there. If so, bye Dan Scripps. Those should be 54%+ GOP counties from Oceana up to Leelanau. Benzie's the toughest.

8. Thumb, especially Tuscola and Huron Counties - This conservative populist area is extremely independent and loyal to no party. Even some 60% GOP areas at the top of the ticket will ticket split. Sanillac County's rep should flip with locally popular Espinoza termed out. Mike Green is the best candidate for the state senate district. He'll have to rack up big numbers in the thumb to counter Bay County, home of the populist socially moderate democrats. Green (best) can exceed Mayes (good) on the gun issue, and he's also carried a union card. This may be a pickup. We may take Terry Brown's seat as well, although that won't be easy. Like the sunrise coast and the UP, the top of the ticket doesn't tell the story here.

9. Western/Southernmost Wayne County. Two state senate seats and three state rep seats are up for grabs. Keep an eye on Canton Twp (Swings), Van Buren Twp (Dem leaning), Plymouth (city swings, Twp GOP), Northville, Wayne (dem, but by how much), Westland (dem, by how much), Garden City (dem, by how much) Livonia (slight GOP lean), Trenton (slight dem), Huron Twp (swing) and Gibraltar (slight dem). If any of those "dem by how much" areas are close or slight dem areas flipping, there will be some pickups. I'd like to see 54%+ in Canton, any win in Van Buren Twp, 60%+ in Plymouth Twp, 52%+ in Plymouth City, 60%+ in Northville, 42%+ in Wayne, 43%+ in Westland, 48%+ in Garden City, 55%+ in Livonia, any win in Trenton, 52%+ in Huron Twp, and any win in Gibralter.

10. Sunrise Coast - There's a string of swing counties from Presque Isle and Alpena down the Lake Huron Coast and over to the Saginaw Bay/West Branch area. Clare and Roscommon Counties aren't part of this area geographically, but are attached to the state rep districts here and are similar in politics. Populist. We have a tough defense (Tim Moore's open seat) and a longshot (due to the Sheltrown name) pickup opportunity here, along with the Alpena based open seat that's been close but democrat for several years. There's a darkhorse defense for state senate as well that I'm not ready to put in the safe column yet.

11. Isabella County. Probably on paper, our toughest state rep defense. Mt Pleasant is soldly dem, and the surrounding area is marginally republican. Any win in Isabella County is a positive. Rural Midland gives us a small cushion to work with for the state rep district.

12. Rural Washtenaw County. Implications for Tim Walberg, Dr Rob Steele, and an open state rep seat which is a tough offense. The swing townships in Walberg's district are Northfield, Manchester, Saline (city), Sylvan, and Dexter. Scio is a democrat stronghold, and Salem a Republican one. If the swing areas go our way along with big numbers in Manchester (or losses cut in Scio Twp), we have a shot at picking up the Byrnes seat, along with a sure thing with the Walberg seat as this is his weaker area.

13. Eaton County - Very difficult to read. Blue steak in 02, 06, and 08, but a red streak in 2004. A lot of state workers live here, although it's much more conservative socially than Ingham County next door. However, it's got a strong labor streak. The state rep district is a potentially tough defense, and Walberg's economic libertarianism didn't sell here twice, although his social views are more of a positive here outside of maybe Delta Township. This will be interesting to watch.

14. Van Buren County - Classic Swing County with state rep, state senate, and statewide implications. Must win for all of them.

15. Saginaw, Bay, Clinton, St Clair, Counties. If democrats lose Saginaw and Bay Counties (Dem lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts. If the GOP loses Clinton and St Clair Counties (GOP lean, not overwhelmingly so), it's over before it starts.

Locally, Hamburg Township, City of Howell, Green Oak Township, Putnam Township, City of Brighton. If the democrats want to take any commissioner or state rep seats, they'll have to win all of those areas and win them big (better than 06 or 08). Not this year. If Cindy Denby keeps it even, let alone a win, in Howell City, Putnam Township, or Hamburg Township (marginal areas), it's over. Post won't break 40% in the Fowlerville or Hartland areas. $30,000+ down the drain for Post. Same goes for Tianen in Putnam Twp who won't come close in Marion Township. I've only seen one McBride sign in Green Oak at the home of democrat activists. Jack LaBelle doesn't campaign much, but people have voted for him for years, and he gets a lot of crossover and independent votes, which is important in marginal Green Oak. I haven't seen anything in the Hamburg commissioner district, and that's the least Republican. Kelly Raskauskas is running an aggressive race, but even in the Obama year, that was a 55% GOP district (62%+ in 04) due to most of Genoa Township in that district. I think this will be Irene Cahill v Bill Rogers 2.0 (from 2002) in results. As someone who has lived most of his life in that district, I called that race a pipedream in May. I still think it is.

Countywide, I'll be quite unhappy if Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson don't break 63%. Around that number is a magic number for statewide wins. I'd like to see Denby and both of the Rogers brothers to break 65%, and I expect a clean sweep of the commissioner seats. I thought two districts were winnable for the dems this year, but their strongest candidates are in two of the stronger GOP districts. Morris is probably the strongest as a candidate (probably most electable of the bunch), but his district is one of the two most GOP. Raskauskas is the 2nd strongest (Best organized, but not moderate enough). If either ran in Hamburg, I'd be concerned. Still, I wouldn't grade their electability in the range of the late Jake Donahue (who won), Robert Reddinger (who almost won in a conservative area), or even in Matt Evans range (ran ahead of the top of the ticket). Garry Post concerned me with his money. A moderate like Matt Evans or most of all, Robert Reddinger with $40,000 to spend and Raskauskas's organizational ability wouldn't concern me. It would scare me, especially if they kept Judy Daubenmeier in check.

Countywide, 63% is the magic number to watch for the statewide seats. We'll be in good shape to win if that's the number.

Remember these votes. Defeat Stupak. Defeat Schauer. Defeat Peters.

While Bart Stupak in the first district (MI-01) is dominating the headlines for his flip on this bill, he's not the only democrat who voted for this here in Michigan. Five of them are in 60% Democrat seats and would be extremely difficult to defeat. It's still worth a shot this year, but I expect them to survive unless we have a 1994 type year. Dale Kildee in MI-05, John Conyers (Detroit), Carolyn Kilpatrick (Detroit), Sander Levin (Southern Oakland and Macomb Counties), and John Dingell (Ann Arbor, Downriver).

Two others that need the heat are Mark Schauer in the 7th District (MI-07), and Gary Peters in the 9th District (MI-09). These are difficult, but winnable districts. Bush won twice in both of these districts. With the dip in 2006 and 2008 over thanks to Bush's retirement, I like the chances for taking these seats back with Obama's overreach.

Mark Schauer is a yesman with no original thought of his own except those given by his masters. Pelosi and Obama. He also received the endorsement of NARAL already. That is not a good district for someone to be rabidly pro-abortion like Schauer. He needs to be shown the door, and Tim Walberg is the man to do it.

Gary Peters is much like Schauer. His economic leftism is not a good fit for the 9th district, and when they get taxed up the wazoo with the surcharges, there should be hell to pay. Peters needs to be shown the door and Rocky Raczkowski who has won three difficult races in Farmington Hills, is the man to do it.

Stupak needs to go, but so does Schauer and Peters. Don't forget them.

The early bird award goes to Rocky Raczkowski

One of the key things in elections is organization. It is something tough to recognize for those not on the inside of a campaign, or for those who aren't experienced with the nuts and bolts of campaigning. Good organization is essential to a campaign, and can make up for a lot of major deficiencies in some areas, like money or early name recognition. The 2002 Joe Hune campaign was one of the most organized camps I've ever seen to this day. Mike Cox's 2002 campaign was also extremely well organized.

I often check the Secretary of State's office to see the filings. State rep and state senate candidates can either use petitions to file or just pay $100. Most pay the $100. Governor, US Senate, US House, and many local offices require a certain amount of petitions before the May filing deadline to get on the ballot.

With Michael Van Kleeck announcing his withdraw from the ballot to move to Montcalm County and run for the 70th district, Rocky Raczkowski was the first congressional candidate to turn his petition papers in. John Conyers, a 46 year incumbent, also well known for his organization, was the 2nd candidate to turn in his papers.

This is a good showing of organization so far from Rocky's campaign, and it bodes well for his primary and general election. Gary Peters should be concerned.

Michigan 9th District (MI-09) Updated

Edit 5-18-2010 - Listed Candidates
Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 9th District - Congress

Incumbent - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 2
Cook District Numbers - D+2

GOP Candidates - Andrew Rocky Raczkowski
Dem Candidate - Gary Peters

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 56%
McCain - 43%

2004:
Bush - 51%
Kerry – 49%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%

I said a long time ago that the redistricters had their heads up their butts when they drew this district. This district made things difficult for Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg had a history of running much further ahead of the top of the ticket. He had a difficult district in the 1990's that included Southfield, which has gone from voting for Dukakis by 5000 votes to voting for Obama by 33,000 votes. Southfield used to be largely Catholic and Jewish with some blacks in the 1980's. Now, it's mostly black. Southfield was rightly given to Sander Levin's district. Knollenberg had to take Pontiac. That along makes up a 15,000 deficit. What was very bleeping stupid is Levin giving of Royal Oak to Knollenberg. Why? Royal Oak was blue and getting bluer for years. Levin should have kept Royal Oak, and give the rest of Sterling Heights to Miller. Knollenberg could have taken some of those northern townships from Mike Rogers instead. If that was the case, he'd possibly still be in office protecting the auto industry.

The 9th District is all in Oakland County. It contains Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Farmington Hills, Farmington, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Oakland Twp, Orchard Lake, part of Orion Twp, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Royal Oak, Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin), Sylvan Lake, Troy, part of Waterford Twp, and West Bloomfield.

Knollenberg's secret is running even in West Bloomfield, and winning Farmington Hills, while racking up big margins in the Bloomfields to overcome Pontiac (and Southfield in the old district). It worked for a long time.

Most of the 9th comes from the old 11th district which Knollenberg represented. It went for Clinton and Gore, so the old 11th was more democrat than the current 9th. The rest was from mostly republican areas in the old 9th and 12th districts, except Royal Oak and Pontiac are major exceptions. I think the republicans were more interesting in hurting David Bonior than they were helping Knollenberg. They wanted most of Bonior's old base in Levin's district. If they gave Royal Oak and Berkley to Levin, it would probably put Clinton Twp or the Southern part of Sterling Heights with Miller's district. I'd have taken that trade in a minute. Then again, it wasn't my call. There were a lot of internal redistricting battles that hurt a few reps who wanted to run.

Current 9th District:
Auburn Hills - Was in old 9th
Berkley - Was in old 12th
Birmingham - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Hills - Was in old 11th
Bloomfield Twp - Was in old 11th
Clawson - Was in old 12th
Farmington Hills - Was in old 11th
Farmington - Was in old 11th
Keego Harbor - Was in old 11th
Lake Angeles - Was in old 9th
Oakland Twp - Was in old 9th
Orchard Lake - Was in old 11th
part of Orion Twp Was in old 9th
Pontiac - Was in old 9th
Rochester - Was in old 9th
Rochester Hills - Was in old 9th
Royal Oak - Was in old 12th
Southfield Twp (Bingham Farms, Franklin) - Was in old 11th
Sylvan Lake - Was in old 11th
Troy - Was in old 12th
part of Waterford Twp - Was in old 9th
West Bloomfield - Was in old 11th


Former 11th
Commerce Twp - Now in current 11th
Highland Twp - Now in current 11th
Lathrup Village- Now in current12th
Lyon Twp - Now in current 11th
Milford Twp - Now in current 11th
City of Northville (Oakland) - Now in current 11th
City of Novi - Now in current 11th
Novi Twp - Now in current 11th
South Lyon - Now in current 11th
City of Southfield (most) - Now in current 12th
Walled Lake - Now in current 11th
White Lake - Now in current 11th
Wixom - Now in current 11th
Livonia - Now in current 11th
Redford Twp - Now in current 11th

Most of that wasn't bad. What was bad was Royal Oak. It really would not have mattered in the end since the last race was a 33,000 vote spread Royal Oak was 6000 of that, Berkley 2800), and Independence Twp, Orion, and Oxford couldn't makeup the rest. What it might have done however is scare off Peters, and give Knollenberg a better cushion in 2006. Knollenberg would possibly survived Nancy Skinner again.

Knollenberg survived easily until 2006, consistently winning with about 58% of the vote. 2006 was a nailbiter, and that got Gary Peters, one of the strongest farm club members of the dems, to run. Obama cleaned up in this mostly wealthy (Pontiac the big exception) district, and Peters rode the wave.

The Republicans have a few candidates looking to take the seat back. Their best shot is Andrew Rocky Raczkowski. As a former state rep, Rocky won the tough Farmington Hills based state house district three times, even beating Aldo Vagnozzi, a local legend there who replaced him. Rocky works for us. He's recently back home after stints in Afghanastan and Somalia. Rocky can adapt to either the business crowd or the movement conservatives and I think is one of the few candidates who, if given some help, give Peters more than a run for his money.


Here's the 08 results. It wasn't close. Ticket splitting areas went straight donkey, solid GOP areas were competitive, and the lean democrat areas upped their margins to the stratosphere. There were a lot of 3rd party defectors in this race, and I think it was the bailout that put the nail in the coffin.

2008 Election	Knollenberg	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,310	5,535	611	9,456	-2225	35.00%	58.53%	-23.53%
City of Berkley	3,264	5,080	711	9,055	-1816	36.05%	56.10%	-20.06%
City of Birmingham	6,172	5,584	462	12,218	588	50.52%	45.70%	4.81%
Bloomfield Hills	1,613	967	88	2,668	646	60.46%	36.24%	24.21%
Bloomfield Twp	14,940	11,235	851	27,026	3705	55.28%	41.57%	13.71%
City of Clawson	2,718	3,529	523	6,770	-811	40.15%	52.13%	-11.98%
Farmington	2,343	2,929	282	5,554	-586	42.19%	52.74%	-10.55%
Farmington Hills	16,909	24,287	1984	43,180	-7378	39.16%	56.25%	-17.09%
Keego Harbor	489	676	126	1,291	-187	37.88%	52.36%	-14.48%
Lake Angeles	201	48	3	252	153	79.76%	19.05%	60.71%
Oakland Twp	5,692	3,344	453	9,489	2348	59.99%	35.24%	24.74%
Orchard Lake	821	562	63	1,446	259	56.78%	38.87%	17.91%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	424	424	110	958	0	44.26%	44.26%	0.00%
Orion 9	573	507	78	1,158	66	49.48%	43.78%	5.70%
Orion 11	347	352	69	768	-5	45.18%	45.83%	-0.65%
Orion 14	404	274	48	726	130	55.65%	37.74%	17.91%
Orion 916avcb	520	538	74	1,132	-18	45.94%	47.53%	-1.59%
Pontiac	2,585	18,908	1018	22,511	-16323	11.48%	83.99%	-72.51%
Rochester	3,272	3,031	372	6,675	241	49.02%	45.41%	3.61%
Rochester Hills	18,728	17,320	1979	38,027	1408	49.25%	45.55%	3.70%
City of Royal Oak	11,311	17,518	2359	31,188	-6207	36.27%	56.17%	-19.90%
Southfield Twp	4,743	4,313	321	9,377	430	50.58%	46.00%	4.59%
Sylvan Lake	510	504	70	1,084	6	47.05%	46.49%	0.55%
Troy	20,643	19,407	1961	42,011	1236	49.14%	46.20%	2.94%
Waterford Twp	13,279	16,277	2525	32,081	-2998	41.39%	50.74%	-9.35%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,224	20,362	1492	36,078	-6138	39.43%	56.44%	-17.01%
Total	150,035	183,511	18,633	352,179	-33476	42.60%	52.11%	-9.51%

2006 was a nailbiter and showed the danger signs that started in the 2004 presidential race. Knollenberg here still had the ticket splitters in democrat strongholds like West Bloomfield that saved him.

2006 Election	Knollenberg	Skinner	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,965	3,386	192	6,543	-421	45.32%	51.75%	-6.43%
City of Berkley	3,082	3,729	193	7,004	-647	44.00%	53.24%	-9.24%
City of Birmingham	5,565	4,186	184	9,935	1379	56.01%	42.13%	13.88%
Bloomfield Hills	1,503	654	29	2,186	849	68.76%	29.92%	38.84%
Bloomfield Twp	14,138	8,221	376	22,735	5917	62.19%	36.16%	26.03%
City of Clawson	2,636	2,600	176	5,412	36	48.71%	48.04%	0.67%
Farmington	2,520	1,948	102	4,570	572	55.14%	42.63%	12.52%
Farmington Hills	16,402	16,476	660	33,538	-74	48.91%	49.13%	-0.22%
Keego Harbor	440	452	41	933	-12	47.16%	48.45%	-1.29%
Lake Angeles	189	30	2	221	159	85.52%	13.57%	71.95%
Oakland Twp	5,145	2,256	158	7,559	2889	68.06%	29.85%	38.22%
Orchard Lake	755	403	20	1,178	352	64.09%	34.21%	29.88%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	446	318	30	794	128	56.17%	40.05%	16.12%
Orion 9	571	331	20	922	240	61.93%	35.90%	26.03%
Orion 11	359	255	27	641	104	56.01%	39.78%	16.22%
Orion 14	378	220	18	616	158	61.36%	35.71%	25.65%
Orion 916avcb	408	294	13	715	114	57.06%	41.12%	15.94%
Pontiac	2,760	12,640	316	15,716	-9880	17.56%	80.43%	-62.87%
Rochester	3,087	1,917	98	5,102	1170	60.51%	37.57%	22.93%
Rochester Hills	17,560	11,642	662	29,864	5918	58.80%	38.98%	19.82%
City of Royal Oak	10,903	12,807	729	24,439	-1904	44.61%	52.40%	-7.79%
Southfield Twp	4,606	3,338	125	8,069	1268	57.08%	41.37%	15.71%
Sylvan Lake	501	432	26	959	69	52.24%	45.05%	7.19%
Troy	19,017	13,323	705	33,045	5694	57.55%	40.32%	17.23%
Waterford Twp	13,128	11,116	733	24,977	2012	52.56%	44.50%	8.06%
Waterford 1				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 3				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 5				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,324	14,646	525	28,495	-1322	46.76%	51.40%	-4.64%
Total	142,388	127,620	6,160	276,168	14768	51.56%	46.21%	5.35%

2004 and 2002 were easy wins for Knollenberg. I'm not going to post them here because Peters is now the rep. Instead I'll post the 2002 results in the district between Mike Cox and Gary Peters. Cox won statewide by 5500 votes. Cox won Oakland County overall, but it was close and due more to South Lyon and that area than the district. Shockingly to me, Cox won Farmington Hills and almost stole Royal Oak. Cox actually did better than these numbers, because I'm not sure which Waterford Absentees were from the 9th. The absentee voters went for Peters, and all of them were included here.

2002 Election	Cox	Peters	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	2,488	2,699	165	5,352	-211	46.49%	50.43%	-3.94%
City of Berkley	3,007	3,334	193	6,534	-327	46.02%	51.03%	-5.00%
City of Birmingham	5,059	3,595	188	8,842	1464	57.22%	40.66%	16.56%
Bloomfield Hills	1,324	629	30	1,983	695	66.77%	31.72%	35.05%
Bloomfield Twp	12,716	8,039	356	21,111	4677	60.23%	38.08%	22.15%
City of Clawson	2,498	2,205	177	4,880	293	51.19%	45.18%	6.00%
Farmington	2,265	1,781	97	4,143	484	54.67%	42.99%	11.68%
Farmington Hills	14,811	14,447	697	29,955	364	49.44%	48.23%	1.22%
Keego Harbor	321	350	37	708	-29	45.34%	49.44%	-4.10%
Lake Angeles	155	29	4	188	126	82.45%	15.43%	67.02%
Oakland Twp	3,885	1,677	125	5,687	2208	68.31%	29.49%	38.83%
Orchard Lake	688	352	20	1,060	336	64.91%	33.21%	31.70%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	336	223	16	575	113	58.43%	38.78%	19.65%
Orion 9	540	240	17	797	300	67.75%	30.11%	37.64%
Orion 11	286	203	27	516	83	55.43%	39.34%	16.09%
Orion 14	334	175	12	521	159	64.11%	33.59%	30.52%
Orion 916avcb	264	217	13	494	47	53.44%	43.93%	9.51%
Pontiac	2,323	10,604	295	13,222	-8281	17.57%	80.20%	-62.63%
Rochester	2,451	1,640	87	4,178	811	58.66%	39.25%	19.41%
Rochester Hills	15,688	9,998	521	26,207	5690	59.86%	38.15%	21.71%
City of Royal Oak	11,261	11,532	767	23,560	-271	47.80%	48.95%	-1.15%
Southfield Twp	4,233	3,111	116	7,460	1122	56.74%	41.70%	15.04%
Sylvan Lake	458	372	21	851	86	53.82%	43.71%	10.11%
Troy	17,044	10,848	541	28,433	6196	59.94%	38.15%	21.79%
Waterford Twp	12,367	10,108	610	23,085	2259	53.57%	43.79%	9.79%
Waterford 1	-469	-277	-28	(774)	-192	60.59%	35.79%	24.81%
Waterford 3	-302	-214	-17	(533)	-88	56.66%	40.15%	16.51%
Waterford 5	-402	-289	-21	(712)	-113	56.46%	40.59%	15.87%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	11,106	13,504	775	25,385	-2398	43.75%	53.20%	-9.45%
Total	126,735	111,132	5,841	243,708	15603	52.00%	45.60%	6.40%

In the presidential race, this district has gotten more and more blue. It's a combination of smaller margins in formerly republican strongholds, more votes in Pontiac, and emerging areas that were competitive, no longer competitive at all. Kerry actually did much better than Gore in this district. The other reason is that even though Bush did better in Oakland County in 2004 overall than 2000 (which most don't know), it wasn't in this district (Rogers and McCotter's district had the improvements) which is what most people think of with Oakland County.The numbers are slightly off due to absentees.

2000 Election	Bush	Gore	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,408	3,913	227	7,548	-505	45.15%	51.84%	-6.69%
City of Berkley	3,860	4,400	312	8,572	-540	45.03%	51.33%	-6.30%
City of Birmingham	6,729	4,925	307	11,961	1804	56.26%	41.18%	15.08%
Bloomfield Hills	1,804	777	44	2,625	1027	68.72%	29.60%	39.12%
Bloomfield Twp	16,304	9,530	518	26,352	6774	61.87%	36.16%	25.71%
City of Clawson	3,116	3,332	249	6,697	-216	46.53%	49.75%	-3.23%
Farmington	2,796	2,442	179	5,417	354	51.62%	45.08%	6.53%
Farmington Hills	19,164	20,337	910	40,411	-1173	47.42%	50.33%	-2.90%
Keego Harbor	522	588	36	1,146	-66	45.55%	51.31%	-5.76%
Lake Angeles	203	23	2	228	180	89.04%	10.09%	78.95%
Oakland Twp	4,823	2,219	181	7,223	2604	66.77%	30.72%	36.05%
Orchard Lake	870	471	38	1,379	399	63.09%	34.16%	28.93%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	363	363	26	752	0	48.27%	48.27%	0.00%
Orion 9	708	368	23	1,099	340	64.42%	33.48%	30.94%
Orion 11	437	402	23	862	35	50.70%	46.64%	4.06%
Orion 14	373	230	9	612	143	60.95%	37.58%	23.37%
Orion 916avcb				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Pontiac	3,360	15,182	338	18,880	-11822	17.80%	80.41%	-62.62%
Rochester	3,270	2,153	179	5,602	1117	58.37%	38.43%	19.94%
Rochester Hills	21,011	13,474	789	35,274	7537	59.57%	38.20%	21.37%
City of Royal Oak	14,689	16,435	1185	32,309	-1746	45.46%	50.87%	-5.40%
Southfield Twp	5,133	3,721	268	9,122	1412	56.27%	40.79%	15.48%
Sylvan Lake	583	485	37	1,105	98	52.76%	43.89%	8.87%
Troy	22,775	15,463	886	39,124	7312	58.21%	39.52%	18.69%
Waterford Twp	16,629	15,280	845	32,754	1349	50.77%	46.65%	4.12%
Waterford 1	-548	-500	-34	(1,082)	-48	50.65%	46.21%	4.44%
Waterford 3	-344	-382	-20	(746)	38	46.11%	51.21%	-5.09%
Waterford 5	-491	-414	-24	(929)	-77	52.85%	44.56%	8.29%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	14,222	19,016	627	33,865	-4794	42.00%	56.15%	-14.16%
Total	165,769	154,233	8,160	328,162	11536	50.51%	47.00%	3.52%

2004 showed a dem uptick.

2004 Election	Bush	Kerry	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	4,089	4,724	97	8,910	-635	45.89%	53.02%	-7.13%
City of Berkley	4,315	5,027	108	9,450	-712	45.66%	53.20%	-7.53%
City of Birmingham	6,772	5,508	101	12,381	1264	54.70%	44.49%	10.21%
Bloomfield Hills	1,802	951	24	2,777	851	64.89%	34.25%	30.64%
Bloomfield Twp	16,314	11,197	208	27,719	5117	58.85%	40.39%	18.46%
City of Clawson	3,584	3,471	66	7,121	113	50.33%	48.74%	1.59%
Farmington	2,873	2,680	74	5,627	193	51.06%	47.63%	3.43%
Farmington Hills	20,019	22,931	381	43,331	-2912	46.20%	52.92%	-6.72%
Keego Harbor	554	590	13	1,157	-36	47.88%	50.99%	-3.11%
Lake Angeles	217	43	3	263	174	82.51%	16.35%	66.16%
Oakland Twp	6,212	2,898	91	9,201	3314	67.51%	31.50%	36.02%
Orchard Lake	938	580	7	1,525	358	61.51%	38.03%	23.48%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	584	420	7	1,011	164	57.76%	41.54%	16.22%
Orion 9	785	438	13	1,236	347	63.51%	35.44%	28.07%
Orion 11	456	348	13	817	108	55.81%	42.59%	13.22%
Orion 14	479	252	6	737	227	64.99%	34.19%	30.80%
Orion 916avcb	553	384	16	953	169	58.03%	40.29%	17.73%
Pontiac	4,499	17,759	163	22,421	-13260	20.07%	79.21%	-59.14%
Rochester	3,979	2,647	60	6,686	1332	59.51%	39.59%	19.92%
Rochester Hills	22,733	15,571	354	38,658	7162	58.81%	40.28%	18.53%
City of Royal Oak	15,529	19,143	410	35,082	-3614	44.26%	54.57%	-10.30%
Southfield Twp	5,245	4,346	81	9,672	899	54.23%	44.93%	9.29%
Sylvan Lake	647	529	16	1,192	118	54.28%	44.38%	9.90%
Troy	24,171	18,175	418	42,764	5996	56.52%	42.50%	14.02%
Waterford Twp	19,965	16,507	345	36,817	3458	54.23%	44.84%	9.39%
Waterford 1	-719	-423	-13	(1,155)	-296	62.25%	36.62%	25.63%
Waterford 3	-401	-349	-8	(758)	-52	52.90%	46.04%	6.86%
Waterford 5	-639	-484	-10	(1,133)	-155	56.40%	42.72%	13.68%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	16,150	20,317	247	36,714	-4167	43.99%	55.34%	-11.35%
Total	181,705	176,180	3,291	361,176	5525	50.31%	48.78%	1.53%

2008 showed a blowout. When you quit the state, and tell us that the auto industry isn't coming back, along with Bush not being all that great of friend to the auto industry, and people having a throw the bums out mentality in 06 (The Republican Congress should have listened to Pence in 06. I told you so.) and 08, it doesn't look good. Here's why Knollenberg had no chance in 08.

2008 Election	McCain	Obama	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
Oakland County:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
City of Auburn Hills	3,577	5,823	152	9,552	-2246	37.45%	60.96%	-23.51%
City of Berkley	3,560	5,715	143	9,418	-2155	37.80%	60.68%	-22.88%
City of Birmingham	5,900	6,492	154	12,546	-592	47.03%	51.75%	-4.72%
Bloomfield Hills	1,580	1,112	19	2,711	468	58.28%	41.02%	17.26%
Bloomfield Twp	14,368	12,886	257	27,511	1482	52.23%	46.84%	5.39%
City of Clawson	2,998	3,912	142	7,052	-914	42.51%	55.47%	-12.96%
Farmington	2,416	3,183	102	5,701	-767	42.38%	55.83%	-13.45%
Farmington Hills	17,028	26,862	541	44,431	-9834	38.32%	60.46%	-22.13%
Keego Harbor	525	804	20	1,349	-279	38.92%	59.60%	-20.68%
Lake Angeles	201	59	1	261	142	77.01%	22.61%	54.41%
Oakland Twp	5,965	3,679	139	9,783	2286	60.97%	37.61%	23.37%
Orchard Lake	821	648	11	1,480	173	55.47%	43.78%	11.69%
Orion Twp:				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion 8	494	477	22	993	17	49.75%	48.04%	1.71%
Orion 9	608	581	20	1,209	27	50.29%	48.06%	2.23%
Orion 11	400	399	14	813	1	49.20%	49.08%	0.12%
Orion 14	423	319	13	755	104	56.03%	42.25%	13.77%
Orion 916avcb	598	538	18	1,154	60	51.82%	46.62%	5.20%
Pontiac	2,799	19,980	205	22,984	-17181	12.18%	86.93%	-74.75%
Rochester	3,515	3,319	88	6,922	196	50.78%	47.95%	2.83%
Rochester Hills	19,919	18,834	570	39,323	1085	50.65%	47.90%	2.76%
City of Royal Oak	13,094	21,650	684	35,428	-8556	36.96%	61.11%	-24.15%
Southfield Twp	4,570	4,925	93	9,588	-355	47.66%	51.37%	-3.70%
Sylvan Lake	551	558	17	1,126	-7	48.93%	49.56%	-0.62%
Troy	21,230	21,517	629	43,376	-287	48.94%	49.61%	-0.66%
Waterford Twp	16,968	19,134	720	36,822	-2166	46.08%	51.96%	-5.88%
Waterford 1	-537	-475	-14	(1,026)	-62	52.34%	46.30%	6.04%
Waterford 3	-339	-380	-23	(742)	41	45.69%	51.21%	-5.53%
Waterford 5	-429	-527	-24	(980)	98	43.78%	53.78%	-10.00%
Waterford 930av				-	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
West Bloomfield Twp	13,967	22,730	344	37,041	-8763	37.71%	61.36%	-23.66%
Total	156,770	204,754	5,057	366,581	-47984	42.77%	55.86%	-13.09%

The farm club has some tough seats.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.

St Senate 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Seiferlein/Cherry	41445	65771		107,216	-24326	38.66%	61.34%	-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry	37852	47848		85,700	-9996	44.17%	55.83%	-11.66%

St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....

St. Senate 15th	GOP	Dem
06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski	66,524	45,782	3101	115,407	20742	57.64%	39.67%	17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson	57,583	35,305	2340	95,228	22278	60.47%	37.07%	23.39%

St Senate 14 - Covers Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Twp, Southfield, and Southfield Twp. This is probably the most democrat state senate district outside of the City of Detroit, give or take Ann Arbor and Flint. Most of this district is in the 12th District, but the Farmingtons and Southfield Twp are in the 9th. Gilda Jacobs is termed out in 2010, but the only chance the GOP has here is if it's a 1994 like year, and even still, there's still Southfield, Lathrup, Ferndale, Oak Park, and Huntington Woods.

St Senate 14th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Bellinger/Jacobs	26571	78346	3114	108,031	-51775	24.60%	72.52%	-47.93%
02 - Wilkins/Jacobs	28249	65538	2030	95,817	-37289	29.48%	68.40%	-38.92%

St Senate 13 -  Covers Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy. This is a swing district that was a barnburner in 2006. Liberal Republican Shirley Johnson was termed out and there was a tough primary and general election. John Pappageorge, a former state rep ran and won a very close race with Andy Levin - Sander Levin's son. Pappageorge's win helped save the senate.

St Senate 13th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party
06 - Pappageorge/A.Levin	57,204	56,484	3129	116,817	720	48.97%	48.35%	0.62%
02 - Johnson/Levitt	63,793	37,222		101,015	26571	63.15%	36.85%	26.30%

St Senate 12 - Covers Addison Twp, City of Auburn Hills, City of Clarkston, Independence Twp, City of Keego Harbor, City of Lake Angelus, Oakland Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, City of Pontiac, City of Rochester, City of Rochester Hills, City of Sylvan Lake, and less than a precinct of West Bloomfield. This district is split between the 8th and 9th. Mike Bishop is termed out and running for Attorney General. Slightly Republican leaning, but anything with Pontiac and Auburn Hills is dangerous, because a turnout war can do what Obama did in the 8th Congressional. Luckily Rochester Hills doesn't go for Pontiac types of democrats (union/populist). It's an open seat in 2010. 

St Senate 12th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
06 - Bishop/Barrera	59,498	43,069	3048	105,615	16429	56.33%	40.78%	15.56%
02 - Bishop/Werth	54,569	32,412		86,981	22157	62.74%	37.26%	25.47%

St Rep 46 - Covers Addison Twp, Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Holly Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, and Rose Twp in Oakland County. This is one of the most Republican seats in Oakland County.

St Rep 46th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Marleau/Houston	29,257	19,042		48,299	10215	60.57%	39.43%	21.15%
06 - Marleau/Pearson	23,744	15,197		38,941	8547	60.97%	39.03%	21.95%
04 - Marleau/Myslakowski	30,064	17,593		47,657	12471	63.08%	36.92%	26.17%
02 - Johnson/Reading	21,582	8,866		30,448	12716	70.88%	29.12%	41.76%

St Rep 45th - Covers Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Twp. Solidly Republican, although less so in recent years. All of this district is in the 9th.

St Rep 45th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - McMillin/Young	29,450	21,785		51,235	7665	57.48%	42.52%	14.96%
06 - Garfield/Werth	24,211	16,385		40,596	7826	59.64%	40.36%	19.28%
04 - Garfield/Werth	31,993	17,363	1326	50,682	14630	63.12%	34.26%	28.87%
02 - Garfield/Kanaras	23,518	10,699		34,217	12819	68.73%	31.27%	37.46%

St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.

St Rep 44th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie	33,266	16,683		49,949	16583	66.60%	33.40%	33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie	27,124	13,264		40,388	13860	67.16%	32.84%	34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase	33,596	14,498	1400	49,494	19098	67.88%	29.29%	38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan	22,788	9,748		32,536	13040	70.04%	29.96%	40.08%

St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.

St Rep 43rd	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson	20,219	19,373	1460	41,052	846	49.25%	47.19%	2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell	19,292	13,406		32,698	5886	59.00%	41.00%	18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson	23,665	18,193		41,858	5472	56.54%	43.46%	13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino	14,788	13,157		27,945	1631	52.92%	47.08%	5.84%

St Rep 41st - Covers Clawson and Troy - Leans Republican, but like the Rochester seat, not as much as it was. In fact, Peters split this district nearly 50/50. Marty Knollenberg, Joe's son, is the current state rep here. He's won two terms and has a 3rd in 2010. This could possibly be competitive in 2012 depending on what happens with redistricting.

St Rep 41st	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - M.Knollenberg/Treharne	27,211	19,649		46,860	7562	58.07%	41.93%	16.14%
06 - M.Knollenberg/Gregory	21,673	15,479		37,152	6194	58.34%	41.66%	16.67%
04 - Gosselin/Blundo	26,767	19,674		46,441	7093	57.64%	42.36%	15.27%
02 - Pappageorge/Fischer	22,631	9,514	667	32,812	13117	68.97%	29.00%	39.98%

St Rep 40th - Covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Twp, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, Southfield Twp, and Sylvan Lake. This district leans GOP, but not overwhelmingly so. Chuck Moss is a two term incumbent with one term left. This could have an outside chance of being competitive in 2012 depending on redistricting.

St Rep 40th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Moss/Candler	31,312	19,751	1278	52,341	11561	59.82%	37.74%	22.09%
06 - Moss/Jafly	28,095	14,883		42,978	13212	65.37%	34.63%	30.74%
04 - Taub	39,231			39,231	39231	100.00%	0.00%	100.00%
02 - Taub/Weisberg	25,625	15,435		41,060	10190	62.41%	37.59%	24.82%

St Rep 39th - Covers Commerce Twp and part of West Bloomfield. This seat leaned democrat at the top of the ticket for a long time, but went GOP several times down ticket. Commerce Twp saved us in 2004 and 2006, but it caught up with us in 2008. Lisa Brown, who almost won in 2006, won the open seat in 2008. Hopefully, the democrat 2010 backlash strikes here. We'll see.

St Rep 39th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Peterman/Brown	22,725	25,437	1133	49,295	-2712	46.10%	51.60%	-5.50%
06 - Law/Brown	19,563	19,387		38,950	176	50.23%	49.77%	0.45%
04 - Law/Schwartz	24,998	21,618	1092	47,708	3380	52.40%	45.31%	7.08%
02 - Shulman/Brickman	19,691	12,722		32,413	6969	60.75%	39.25%	21.50%

St Rep 37th - Covers Farmington and Farmington Hills - This district leans democrat, but was won by Rocky Raczkowski three times in 96, 98, and 2000. Vicki Barnett won the open seat for the democrats in 2008 in an easier than supposed to have been race. Paul Welday didn't get the help that he needed and was largely left on his own. 

St Rep 37th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Welday/Barnett	18,954	28,575		47,529	-9621	39.88%	60.12%	-20.24%
06 - Malaney/Vagnozzi	14,375	23,177		37,552	-8802	38.28%	61.72%	-23.44%
04 - Largent/Vagnozzi	20,468	26,730		47,198	-6262	43.37%	56.63%	-13.27%
02 - Knol/Vagnozzi	16,290	17,976		34,266	-1686	47.54%	52.46%	-4.92%

St Rep 29th - Covers Pontiac and Auburn Hills - Solidly Democrat seat.  Tim Melton is the two term incumbent.

St Rep 29th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Sampeer/Melton	5,074	25,700		30,774	-20626	16.49%	83.51%	-67.02%
06 - March/Melton	4,131	16,591	1110	21,832	-12460	18.92%	75.99%	-57.07%
04 - Moffett/Phillips	7,607	22,272	1400	31,279	-14665	24.32%	71.20%	-46.88%
02 - March/Phillips	4,292	13,675		17,967	-9383	23.89%	76.11%	-52.22%

St Rep 27th - Covers Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, and Pleasant Ridge. Probably the most liberal district in the state outside of Ann Arbor. Only the major minority areas are more democrat.

St Rep 27th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Micola/Lipton	10,099	31,758	2616	44,473	-21659	22.71%	71.41%	-48.70%
06 - Sears/Meisner	7,303	27,285		34,588	-19982	21.11%	78.89%	-57.77%
04 - Axtell/Meisner	10,755	32,447	1188	44,390	-21692	24.23%	73.10%	-48.87%
02 - Sanford/Meisner	7,927	21,037	875	29,839	-13110	26.57%	70.50%	-43.94%

St Rep 26th - Madison Heights and Royal Oak - Strong Democrat leanings, but has been competitive in the past. I think the dems have held this seat since at least 98, if not earlier. It will be opened up in 2010. I think there's an outside shot if it is another 1994 type of year, but this seat is for the dems to lose.

St Rep 26th	GOP	Dem	3rd Party	Total	Diff.	GOP%	Dem%	Diff%
08 - Goodman/Donigan	15,471	28,003	1885	45,359	-12532	34.11%	61.74%	-27.63%
06 - Konczal/Donigan	12,357	22,079	1057	35,493	-9722	34.82%	62.21%	-27.39%
04 - Ginotti/Donigan	20,954	22,780	2682	46,416	-1826	45.14%	49.08%	-3.93%
02 - West/Woodward	11,697	19,058	722	31,477	-7361	37.16%	60.55%	-23.39%

Now the 9th district is unpredictable for 2010. One issue trumps all. The economy. The auto industry took an ass kicking in 2008, and 2009. The Bloomfields are known for auto executives. Auburn Hills was Chrysler's HQ, not just the home of the Pistons. Pontiac is a former GM town. Lake Orion (largely 8th district) has a GM plant, for now. With the 250,000 jobs estimated that are eliminated from GM due to decisions made by Obama's appointees, how will that impact this district? Cap and trade is not popular here, even though the environment is big issue in these parts. The social issues are downplayed right now, and that favors republicans in this district. This is Romney's old home. This is his territory. This is the closest district to the pundits stereotype of Oakland County (which I used to buy into until I took a closer look at the numbers). It takes a balancing act to win here between business, the social liberal independents, and the populists which while aren't as numerous here as neighboring Macomb County, still are a factor in very important Waterford. The base is still quite important as well. The populism in this district has certainly increased since the bank bailouts and auto industry crisis. How will Peters and Rocky handle that? That's the question, and probably what will determine what happens in 2010. Rocky's a fighter, like another more famous Rocky. That's one of the big reasons why I like his odds in 2010. He's won tough districts in the past, and the 9th overall is easier than his old 37th district.