Sunday, May 01, 2005

Arenac County Profile

Arenac County:
Location – Saginaw Bay:
Population - 17,269 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 95.38% White, 1.82% Black, .95% American Indian, .29% Asian, .21% Some other Race, 1.33% Two or more races, 1.38% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Standish (pop 1581)

Arenac County is a county on the East Coast of Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron. It is lightly populated and has a populist streak influenced by nearby Bay County. They prefer socially conservative democrats, but are willing to ticket split in certain situations. Arenac County narrowly went blue in the last three elections at the top of the ticket.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressman - Bart Stupak (D), 1st District
State Senator – Jim Barcia (D), 31st District
State Rep – Tim Moore (R), 97th District

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)

Governor - John Engler (R) - 58.60%, Geoff Fieger (D) – 41.39%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 67.80%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 31.23%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 55.81%, John Smietanka (R) – 44.19%,
Congress (5th District) – James Barcia (D) – 73.59%, Donald Brewster (R) – 25.74%
State Senator (34th District) – Tom Alley (D) – 57.97%, Joel Gougeon (R) – 42.03%
State Representative (103rd District) – Dale Sheltrown (D) – 54.84%, Don Birgel (R) – 45.16%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) - 50.68%, Debbie Stabenow (D) - 47.22%
Congress (5th District) – James Barcia (D) – 75.88%, Ronald Actis (R) – 22.64%
State Representative (103rd District) – Dale Sheltrown (D) – 68.04%, Don Birgel (R) – 31.96%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 51.14%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 47.34%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 52.85%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 44.09%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 52.33%, Mike Cox (R) – 44.73%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 65.97%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) - 32.31%
Congress (1st District) - Bart Stupak (D) - 57.21%, Don Hooper (R) - 40.88%
State Senate (31st District) – Jim Barcia (D) - 67.45%, Mike Green (R) – 32.55%
State Representative (97th) – Jennifer Elkins (D) – 51.10%, David Coker (R) – 48.90%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress (1st District) - Bart Stupak (D) - 57.96%, Don Hooper (R) – 39.78%
State Representative (97th) – Tim Moore(R) – 50.95%, Jennifer Elkins (D) – 49.05%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

ARENAC COUNTY
2000 – Bush 3421 (47.08%), Gore 3685 (50.71%)
2004 – Bush 4071 (49.55%), Kerry 4076 (49.61%)

Adams Township
2000 - 116 (62.03%), 70 (37.43%)
2004 – 144 (61.28%), 89 (37.87%)

Arenac Township
2000 - 176 (42.51%), 226 (54.59%)
2004 – 207 (44.33%), 253 (54.16%)

Au Gres City
2000 - 241 (50.52%), 220 (46.12%)
2004 – 268 (56.90%), 198 (42.04%)

Au Gres Township
2000 - 228 (44.10%), 270 (52.22%)
2004 – 320 (51.36%), 301 (48.31%)

Clayton Township
2000 - 162 (43.55%), 204 (54.84%)
2004 - 210 (45.65%), 248 (53.91%)

Deep River Township
2000 – 428 (43.32%), 545 (55.16%)
2004 – 486 (43.24%), 631 (56.14%)

Lincoln Township
2000 – 189 (47.61%), 196 (49.37%)
2004 – 210 (45.95%), 245 (53.61%)

Mason Township
2000 - 156 (51.15%), 146 (47.87%)
2004 – 190 (49.87%), 189 (49.61%)

Moffatt Township
2000 - 250 (45.21%), 287 (51.90%)
2004 – 307 (48.96%), 311 (49.60%)

Omer City
2000 - 47 (37.01%), 77 (60.63%)
2004 – 60 (42.25%), 80 (56.34%)

Sims Township
2000 - 367 (52.20%), 323 (45.95%)
2004 – 416 (56.37%), 315 (42.68%)

Standish City
2000 - 287 (48.56%), 296 (50.08%)
2004 – 321 (51.52%), 294 (47.19%)

Standish Township
2000 - 340 (39.67%), 493 (57.53%)
2004 – 420 (43.43%), 543 (56.15%)

Turner Township
2000 - 142 (58.92%), 92 (38.17%)
2004 – 164 (55.22%), 131 (44.11%)

Whitney Township
2000 - 292 (54.07%), 240 (44.44%)
2004 – 348 (57.71%), 248 (41.13%)

Redistricting affected Arenac County in a major way. Jim Barcia’s Bay City based district was carved up so he had to either go back to the State Senate, or run against Dale Kildee in Flint. Barcia chose to go back to the state senate, and unfortunatly at the expense of a good man in Mike Green(author of the Conceal Carry Law). I hope Green makes a comeback. Unfortunatly, he had the worst possible opponent to run against. The other main redistricting factors were Stupak’s district extending southward, and the change in the state representative districts. Arenac was moved from a West Branch District to a Clare based district.

Arenac County prefers socially moderate to socially conservative democrats, especially on the local level. Jim Barcia and Dale Sheltrown do well here. A gay marriage vote may have cost Jennifer Elkins her seat in a very close election. Arenac broke from party tradition and voted for Republican Tim Moore instead, who went on to win. It’s somewhat surprising since Arenac actually snubbed Joel Gougeon who was able to get a rare republican win in neighboring Bay County. I’m guessing Tom Alley is a local. Arenac County will be tough to flip, but it is possible. Tim Moore and Terri Land won here.

No comments: