Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Filing Deadline Passes - Preliminary Report (Unofficial) - Primary 2010

The pretenders are out and the contenders are in. Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 primary. It was at 4PM. There may be some paperwork going between the clerks and the Secretary of State Office, but here's a presumptive list of who is in and out from the Secretary of State

The Gubernatorial Candidates are:
GOP - Mike Bouchard, Mike Cox, Tom George, Pete Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder. There was talk about a couple of other longshots, but it's not happening. The petition requirements was the first elimination bout.

DEM - Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero. Alma Wheeler Smith dropped out. Geoff Fieger said he wasn't running. No Bob Bowman or anybody else.

It's a two way primary for the dems and a five way primary for the GOP

I'll update the congressional districts again when I have a chance to list who is in/out. It looks like we'll be seeing:

1st District (MI-01) - Open seat
GOP - Six way primary between Jason Allen, Dan Benishek, Patrick Donlon, Linda Goldthorpe, Don Hooper, and Tom Stillings.

Dem - Gary McDowell. I don't see Matt Gillard there. If McDowell has a free pass, this could be trouble for us. Major coup for McDowell (who is Stupak's guy) if he avoids a primary.

2nd District (MI-02) - Open seat
GOP - Seven way primary between Bill Cooper, Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Chris Larson, Field Reichardt, Jay Riemersma, and Ted Schendel.

Dem - Primary between Fred Johnson and Nicolette McClure.

Interesting matchups for the primary here. Holland dominates the district for the GOP. Muskegon dominates for the dems, but no Muskegon democrat is running. All of the GOP candidates are from Holland except Bill Cooper (Muskegon County) and Ted Schendel from Benzie County. For the dems, Fred Johnson is from Holland and McClure is from Lake County.

3rd District (MI-03) - Open Seat

GOP - Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman, Steven Heacock, Louise Johnson, and Bob Overbeek

Dem - Paul Mayhue and Pat Miles

The interesting this here is does Grand Rapids follow the "It's his turn" format as it has done for years. It looks like the "his turn" views are split between Hardiman and Heacock. That leaves an opening for Amash who is the upstart who may cause an upset.

4th District (MI-04) - Incumbent Dave Camp

GOP - Dave Camp of Midland
Dem - Jerry Campbell of St Helen

5th District (MI-05 ) - Incumbent Dale Kildee
GOP - John Kupiec and Rick Wilson, both of Grand Blanc
Dem - Dale Kildee of Flint and Scott Withers of Vassar

I don't see how a primary challenge from Tuscola County will be a big threat to Kildee, who is probably the most popular pol in Flint. One thing to watch however is the UAW membership and their response to Obama's health care takeover. A lot of the retirees and workers are scared to death about the UAW putting them all on the government plan.

6th District (MI-06) - Incumbent Fred Upton

GOP - Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo and Fred Upton of St Joe
Dem - Don Cooney of Kalamazoo

This will be interesting. Upton has had issues with his right flank in the past, and this is the year of the anti-incumbent as Bob Bennett in Utah showed. Jack Hoogendyk has a lot of grass roots support and may actually pull this off if he gets traction. Cooney is stronger than most democrats on the congressional level in this district. Don't sleep on him either.

7th District (MI-07) - Incumbent Mark Schauer

GOP - Marvin Carlson of Manchester, Brian Rooney of Dexter, and Tim Walberg of Tipton
Dem - Mark Schauer of Battle Creek

This is the best chance of a pickup among the GOP. Rooney just moved to the district, but does have an interesting background with pro-life organizations and backstory, the Steelers, and his Iraq service. Carlson is a businessman. Walberg is a conservative's conservative and has proven it over a period of years, and always gets more support than polling and finances suggest. Walberg did what no one has done yet, defeated Doug Spade. He would have won if the NRCC didn't abandon him in 08.

8th District - Incumbent Mike Rogers
GOP - Mike Rogers of Brighton/Howell
Dem - Kande Ngalamulume of Lansing

Blue Cross Kande vs Mike.

9th District - Incumbent Gary Peters

GOP - Anna Janek of West Bloomfield, Richard Kuhn of Waterford, Andrew Rocky Raczkowski of Farmington Hills, Paul Welday of Farmington Hills.

Dem - Gary Peters

This is our 2nd best shot for a pickup after the 7th. Peters is a 1st term incumbent who was a complete yesman without an original thought. What Pelosi wanted, Peters delivered, including Cap and Trade along with Obama's health care takeover in a district which was HQ for Chrysler, and has a GM plant.

10th District - Incumbent Candice Miller

GOP - Candice Miller of Harrison Township
Dem - Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights

11th District - Incumbent Thad McCotter
GOP - Thad McCotter of Livonia
Dem - Natalie Mosher of Canton

This is one to watch for defense purposes. McCotter had a tough go in 08, despite running way ahead of the top of the ticket.

12th District - Incumbent Sander Levin
GOP - Don Volaric of Clinton Township
Dem - Sander Levin or Royal Oak and Mickey Switalski of Roseville

This is interesting for two reasons. Levin has his toughest primary in ages. Switalski has won a ton of races in Macomb County. As Michigan lost a congressional seat, Levin's district had to be pushed further into Macomb County, which isn't his main territory. Can Volaric take advantage of that?

13th District - Incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
GOP - John Hauler of Grosse Pointe Woods
Dem - Vincent Brown of Garden City?(Garden City is in the 11th), Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume, and Carolyn Kilpatrick, and Glenn Plummer of Detroit.

Kilpatrick is in big trouble this August. If it wasn't for straight ticket voting, I'd give Hauler a 35% shot in the general for "Bill Jefferson" reasons, but the straight ticket zombies who don't even read the ballot make it about a 5% shot for a pickup.

14th District - Incumbent John Conyers
GOP - Pauline Montie of Southgate
Dem - John Conyers of Detroit

I figured someone would take on Conyers in the primary after his wife making the news as a city councilcritter. The straight ticket zombies rule applies here too, as it does in the 13th district (and 5th, 12th, and 15th for that matter)

15th District - Incumbent John Dingell
GOP - Tony Amorose of Southgate, John Lynch of Ypsilanti, John Materyn of Brownstown Township, Majed Moughni of Dearborn, and Rob Steele of Ypsi
Dem - John Dingell of Dearborn.

I'm a bit surprised at a five way primary here. Maybe something is bursting in this district as blowback against the Ann Arbor leftists.

Closer to home in Livingston County, these are the presumed matchups:

State Senate 22nd District - Open
GOP - Joe Hune v Paul Rogers
Dem - Chuck Fellows

State Rep 47th District - Incumbent Cindy Denby
GOP - Cindy Denby
Dem - Garry Post

State Rep 66th District - Incumbent Bill Rogers
GOP - Bill Rogers
Dem - James Delcamp

County Commissioners
District 1 - All of Brighton Twp outside precinct 5, Hartland Twp 5 - Incumbent Maggie Jones
GOP - Maggie Jones and Nancy Hill
Dem - None

District 2 - All of Osceola Twp and Deerfield Twp, Howell twp 2, Genoa Twp 3,11 - Incumbent Jim Mantey
GOP - Jim Mantey
Dem - Thomas Bell III

District 3 - All of Tyrone Twp and all of Hartland Twp except 5 - Incumbent Dave Domas
GOP - Dave Domas and Charlie Aberasturi
Dem - Dane Morris

District 4 - All of Handy, Iosco, and Unadilla Twp, Marion Twp 1, Howell Twp 3 - Incumbent Ronald Van Houten

District 5 - All of Conway, Cohoctah, and Howell City, Howell Twp 1 - Open
GOP - Sue Dolato, Jay Drick, and Lou Anne Lathrop
Dem - David Berry

District 6 - All of Putnam Twp, Hamburg 3, Marion 2, 3, 4,Genoa 5, 12.
Incumbent - Steve Williams
GOP - Steve Williams
Dem - Keith Tianen

District 7 - All of Brighton City, Genoa 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 - Incumbent Carol Griffith
GOP - Carol Griffith
Dem - Kelly Raskauskas

District 8 - All of Hamburg except precinct 3 - Incumbent Dennis Dolan
GOP - Dennis Dolan
Dem - Amir Baghdadchi

District 9 - All of Green Oak and Brighton Twp 5 - Incumbent Jack LaBelle
GOP - Jack LaBelle
Dem - Barry McBride

Judges - No opposition.

I'll take a closer look at the county commissioner and local races as time goes by, but here's the unofficial final list after the filing deadline.


Marie said...

In regards to the 6th District, I think Hoogendyk doesn't stand a chance. It's clear from his past record that all he cares about is power and a title. He ran for senate last year and got trounced by Levin...now he wants to run for Congress against a solid incumbent??! Representatives and Senators DO NOT have the same responsibilities...the Constitution clearly outlines the differences between the two as does the Federalist.
I don't think Jack knows what he wants--he even considered State Senate and governor. Fred's outstanding service to the residents of his district, powerful voice in Congress and great relationship w/the 6th speak for themselves.
I like Jack and have met him several times but think that he's not the right guy for the job. And if he says he likes Reagan--FRED actually WORKED for Reagan. Jeeeez. Plus, Jack is breaking one of Reagan's rules by constantly speaking ill of Fred...
And Looney Cooney doesn't stand a chance...

The gubernatorial race should be interesting. We'll see if Hoekstra can fire back at Cox and if Snyder can stay in the game too...

Conservative First said...

Jack Hoogendyk has repeatedly stood on principle and fought against wasteful spending, which is not somthing that can be said of Fred Upton.

Jack was term-limited and did the Republican party a service by running against Carl Levin, who would otherwise have been unopposed. Upton has been in office for 24 years and apparently has never had a private-sector job in his adult life.