Monday, January 09, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 52 (HD-52)

State House - District 52
Current Rep - Mark Ouimet (R-Scio Township)

Candidates:
GOP - Mark Ouimet (R-Scio Twp)
Dem - Gretchen Driskell (D-Saline)

Update 5-26-2012 - No primary here, but the general election is going to make up for it. The dems want this district back, and Driskell's a mayor of Saline. Saline was a key area for Ouimet last time. Tough matchup from that standpoint. However, Ouimet has no Ann Arbor, no A2 Twp, and picks up Salem and Saline Township (separate from the city), which are favorable for Ouimet. I'd call it a slight advantage for Ouimet, but it won't be easy for him.


2010 Results - Old District (52nd)
Mark Ouimet - 21,879
Christine Green - 20,287

The big redistricting winner this cycle is Mark Ouimet, who won a democrat district in what I think was an upset. This district was democrat for three terms from the 04 election to the 08 elections. Pam Byrnes. Gene DeRossett got a lot of union crossovers in the 02 election, but he was a quasi-incumbent. The old district was I believe about 55% for John Kerry, and about 60% for Obama. Snyder on the ballot helped here. Even so, I'm real surprised that he defeated a female democrat in a district that contains Northern Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, AND Scio Township.

The district added Republican Salem and Saline Townships, while contracting the portion of the City of Ann Arbor in the district, as well as Ann Arbor Township. That changes the district from one that leaned democrat to one more winnable. Nothing comes easy in Washtenaw County, especially a district that still has Scio Township and Chelsea. One thing to keep in mind with these numbers is that Dexter Township is not to be confused with the Village of Dexter. The village is mostly in Scio Township.

Overall, I'll consider it competitive with a very slight GOP advantage for Ouimet, although still difficult to defend. Even without the worst parts of the old district, this is hardly a safe district.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bridgewater Twp 526 481 1007 45 52.23% 47.77% 4.47%
Chelsea 1214 1748 2962 -534 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Dexter Twp 1730 2064 3794 -334 45.60% 54.40% -8.80%
Freedom Twp 481 428 909 53 52.92% 47.08% 5.83%
Lima Twp 973 973 1946 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Lodi Twp 1894 1803 3697 91 51.23% 48.77% 2.46%
Lyndon Twp 735 843 1578 -108 46.58% 53.42% -6.84%
Manchester Twp 1241 1424 2665 -183 46.57% 53.43% -6.87%
Northfield Twp 2109 2310 4419 -201 47.73% 52.27% -4.55%
Salem Twp 2067 1510 3577 557 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Saline 2221 2906 5127 -685 43.32% 56.68% -13.36%
Saline Twp 539 507 1046 32 51.53% 48.47% 3.06%
Scio Twp 3772 7709 11481 -3937 32.85% 67.15% -34.29%
Sharon Twp 556 503 1059 53 52.50% 47.50% 5.00%
Sylvan Twp 919 996 1915 -77 47.99% 52.01% -4.02%
Webster Twp 1911 2186 4097 -275 46.64% 53.36% -6.71%



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Total 22888 28391 51279 -5503 44.63% 55.37% -10.73%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bridgewater Twp 550 352 902 198 60.98% 39.02% 21.95%
Chelsea 1300 1490 2790 -190 46.59% 53.41% -6.81%
Dexter Twp 1909 1672 3581 237 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Freedom Twp 481 405 886 76 54.29% 45.71% 8.58%
Lima Twp 926 709 1635 217 56.64% 43.36% 13.27%
Lodi Twp 2104 1519 3623 585 58.07% 41.93% 16.15%
Lyndon Twp 812 718 1530 94 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Manchester Twp 1299 1168 2467 131 52.66% 47.34% 5.31%
Northfield Twp 2352 2027 4379 325 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Salem Twp 2130 1330 3460 800 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Saline 2656 2418 5074 238 52.35% 47.65% 4.69%
Saline Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Scio Twp 4244 6262 10506 -2018 40.40% 59.60% -19.21%
Sharon Twp 630 440 1070 190 58.88% 41.12% 17.76%
Sylvan Twp 983 819 1802 164 54.55% 45.45% 9.10%
Webster Twp 2097 1707 3804 390 55.13% 44.87% 10.25%



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Total 25085 23500 48585 1585 51.63% 48.37% 3.26%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bridgewater Twp 464 242 706 222 65.72% 34.28% 31.44%
Chelsea 1147 989 2136 158 53.70% 46.30% 7.40%
Dexter Twp 1689 1107 2796 582 60.41% 39.59% 20.82%
Freedom Twp 432 257 689 175 62.70% 37.30% 25.40%
Lima Twp 936 624 1560 312 60.00% 40.00% 20.00%
Lodi Twp 1738 1019 2757 719 63.04% 36.96% 26.08%
Lyndon Twp 666 482 1148 184 58.01% 41.99% 16.03%
Manchester Twp 1122 787 1909 335 58.77% 41.23% 17.55%
Northfield Twp 1775 1157 2932 618 60.54% 39.46% 21.08%
Salem Twp

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Saline 1936 1533 3469 403 55.81% 44.19% 11.62%
Saline Twp

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Scio Twp 3705 4524 8229 -819 45.02% 54.98% -9.95%
Sharon Twp 540 300 840 240 64.29% 35.71% 28.57%
Sylvan Twp 883 535 1418 348 62.27% 37.73% 24.54%
Webster Twp 1852 1267 3119 585 59.38% 40.62% 18.76%



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Total 18885 14823 33708 4062 56.03% 43.97% 12.05%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

I would have preferred that they draw Washtenaw like this: http://wmugop.blogspot.com/2011/05/michigan-redistricting-state-house-part_08.html.