Saturday, January 28, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 64 (HD-64)

State House - District 64
Current Rep - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)

Candidates:
GOP - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)
Dem - Barbara Shelton (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Interesting primary here. Marquez and his dad (also named Ruben) are both running for office. Dad's running for Congress and Junior is running for state rep. It sounds like they want to be the next Lamar Lemmons. This will be a tough defense, and turnout will be key. If Poleski isn't killed in Jackson, he'll win. If Spring Arbor and Summit Township comes through for him, he should win. If Marquez or Shelton get 4000 vote spreads in Jackson, this seat's gone.

Update 8-30-2012 - Shelton won the primary.

Old District (64th)
Earl Poleski - 15,649
Martin Griffin - 10,777

Jackson County has been ground zero for control of Michigan's legislature the past 10 years. Both districts here have flipped and aren't really safe, although they should lean our way. Martin Griffin was an incumbent who helped us by putting himself in trouble a bit. I believe his dad represented the district a long time before term limits. The republicans held this district for awhile. Martin Griffin beat an incumbent in a rematch. Griffin lost in 2010 to Earl Poleski who will have a tough test in 2012.

The old district covered Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp. The new district is exactly the same as the old district. The big keys here are two things. How well each candidate does in the base areas with turnout. How well the candidate makes inroads in the base areas of the other. Griffin did well in Republican Summit Township as well as his base area of Jackson when he won. Poleski won big in Summit Township and Spring Arbor, the big base areas for the GOP. He held the dems to under 60% in Jackson. Jackson is heavily democrat, but it's not Albion or Kalamazoo in its leaning. Mostly white union populists with a sizable, but not overwhelmingly minority area that would put this district out of reach.

Bush won the district twice. Obama won it in 08. It's winnable for either party and I expect it to be a target in 2010. 



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 758 633 1391 125 54.49% 45.51% 8.99%
Hanover Twp 1096 843 1939 253 56.52% 43.48% 13.05%
Jackson 4162 8856 13018 -4694 31.97% 68.03% -36.06%
Napoleon Twp 1733 1712 3445 21 50.30% 49.70% 0.61%
Parma Twp 629 618 1247 11 50.44% 49.56% 0.88%
Pulaski Twp 579 405 984 174 58.84% 41.16% 17.68%
Sandstone Twp 1203 782 1985 421 60.60% 39.40% 21.21%
Spring Arbor Twp 2460 1418 3878 1042 63.43% 36.57% 26.87%
Summit Twp 6281 5652 11933 629 52.64% 47.36% 5.27%



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Total 18901 20919 39820 -2018 47.47% 52.53% -5.07%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 843 483 1326 360 63.57% 36.43% 27.15%
Hanover Twp 1199 745 1944 454 61.68% 38.32% 23.35%
Jackson 5257 7142 12399 -1885 42.40% 57.60% -15.20%
Napoleon Twp 1893 1494 3387 399 55.89% 44.11% 11.78%
Parma Twp 714 523 1237 191 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%
Pulaski Twp 635 363 998 272 63.63% 36.37% 27.25%
Sandstone Twp 1293 636 1929 657 67.03% 32.97% 34.06%
Spring Arbor Twp 2763 1105 3868 1658 71.43% 28.57% 42.86%
Summit Twp 6894 4579 11473 2315 60.09% 39.91% 20.18%



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Total 21491 17070 38561 4421 55.73% 44.27% 11.46%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 637 293 930 344 68.49% 31.51% 36.99%
Hanover Twp 948 431 1379 517 68.75% 31.25% 37.49%
Jackson 3108 4389 7497 -1281 41.46% 58.54% -17.09%
Napoleon Twp 1426 910 2336 516 61.04% 38.96% 22.09%
Parma Twp 548 331 879 217 62.34% 37.66% 24.69%
Pulaski Twp 452 194 646 258 69.97% 30.03% 39.94%
Sandstone Twp 1035 414 1449 621 71.43% 28.57% 42.86%
Spring Arbor Twp 2126 674 2800 1452 75.93% 24.07% 51.86%
Summit Twp 5369 3141 8510 2228 63.09% 36.91% 26.18%



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Total 15649 10777 26426 4872 59.22% 40.78% 18.44%

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