Current Rep - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)
GOP - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)
Dem - Barbara Shelton (D-Jackson)
Update 5-26-2012 - Interesting primary here. Marquez and his dad (also named Ruben) are both running for office. Dad's running for Congress and Junior is running for state rep. It sounds like they want to be the next Lamar Lemmons. This will be a tough defense, and turnout will be key. If Poleski isn't killed in Jackson, he'll win. If Spring Arbor and Summit Township comes through for him, he should win. If Marquez or Shelton get 4000 vote spreads in Jackson, this seat's gone.
Update 8-30-2012 - Shelton won the primary.
Old District (64th)
Earl Poleski - 15,649
Martin Griffin - 10,777
Jackson County has been ground zero for control of Michigan's legislature the past 10 years. Both districts here have flipped and aren't really safe, although they should lean our way. Martin Griffin was an incumbent who helped us by putting himself in trouble a bit. I believe his dad represented the district a long time before term limits. The republicans held this district for awhile. Martin Griffin beat an incumbent in a rematch. Griffin lost in 2010 to Earl Poleski who will have a tough test in 2012.
The old district covered Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp. The new district is exactly the same as the old district. The big keys here are two things. How well each candidate does in the base areas with turnout. How well the candidate makes inroads in the base areas of the other. Griffin did well in Republican Summit Township as well as his base area of Jackson when he won. Poleski won big in Summit Township and Spring Arbor, the big base areas for the GOP. He held the dems to under 60% in Jackson. Jackson is heavily democrat, but it's not Albion or Kalamazoo in its leaning. Mostly white union populists with a sizable, but not overwhelmingly minority area that would put this district out of reach.
Bush won the district twice. Obama won it in 08. It's winnable for either party and I expect it to be a target in 2010.
|Spring Arbor Twp||2460||1418||3878||1042||63.43%||36.57%||26.87%|
|Spring Arbor Twp||2763||1105||3868||1658||71.43%||28.57%||42.86%|
|Last St House||GOP||DEM||Total||Diff||GOP||DEM||Diff|
|Spring Arbor Twp||2126||674||2800||1452||75.93%||24.07%||51.86%|