Monday, January 16, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 57 (HD-57)

State House - District 57
Current Rep - Nancy Jenkins (R-Clayton)

Candidates:
GOP - Nancy Jenkins (R-Adrian)
Dem - Jim Berryman (D-Adrian), Harvey Schmidt (D-Tecumseh)

Update 5-26-2012 - Jenkins gets a fairly strong opponent, but not one quite on the level of the Spades. Harvey Schmidt wants a rematch. He is or was the mayor of Tecumseh. Jim Berryman is a former state senator who represented a Monroe/Lenawee seat. He was replaced by Bev Hammerstrom who was replaced by Randy Richardville. He's won in the past, but it was a long time ago. Both should be and are probably taken seriously.

Update 8-30-2012 - Berryman won the primary, although not my an overwhelming margin. This one will be on the radar to watch, as Berryman has won previously. 

2010 Results - Old District (57th)
Nancy Jenkins - 16,660
Harvey Schmidt - 12,385

This district was unchanged. It covers all of Lenawee County outside of Cambridge Township. It's a social conservative swing district that votes for the person more than the party. Bush won it twice. Clinton and Obama both won it. It has been democrat for 12 years until the 2010 election. Doug and Dudley Spade were popular with crossover support. Nancy Jenkins won the open seat in 2010. Before the Spades, the state rep was now congressman Tim Walberg.

I expect competitive races here in the future, although Republicans overall tend to do better here than democrats if someone named Spade is not on the ticket. Tim Walberg had this district for either 16 or 18 years before being termed out. I'd still call it a swing district until Jenkins wins again.It's not our toughest defense, but it's not going to be an easy one either.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Adrian 2684 5045 7729 -2361 34.73% 65.27% -30.55%
Adrian Twp 1798 1661 3459 137 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Blissfield Twp 1075 972 2047 103 52.52% 47.48% 5.03%
Clinton Twp 872 1021 1893 -149 46.06% 53.94% -7.87%
Deerfield Twp 379 377 756 2 50.13% 49.87% 0.26%
Dover Twp 401 344 745 57 53.83% 46.17% 7.65%
Fairfield Twp 407 429 836 -22 48.68% 51.32% -2.63%
Franklin Twp 810 758 1568 52 51.66% 48.34% 3.32%
Hudson 422 471 893 -49 47.26% 52.74% -5.49%
Hudson Twp 375 370 745 5 50.34% 49.66% 0.67%
Macon Twp 490 399 889 91 55.12% 44.88% 10.24%
Madison Twp 1457 1598 3055 -141 47.69% 52.31% -4.62%
Medina Twp 294 202 496 92 59.27% 40.73% 18.55%
Morenci 395 519 914 -124 43.22% 56.78% -13.57%
Ogden Twp 328 236 564 92 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Palmyra Twp 545 550 1095 -5 49.77% 50.23% -0.46%
Raisin Twp 1894 2004 3898 -110 48.59% 51.41% -2.82%
Ridgeway Twp 411 344 755 67 54.44% 45.56% 8.87%
Riga Twp 470 345 815 125 57.67% 42.33% 15.34%
Rollin Twp 835 777 1612 58 51.80% 48.20% 3.60%
Rome Twp 480 397 877 83 54.73% 45.27% 9.46%
Seneca Twp 261 289 550 -28 47.45% 52.55% -5.09%
Tecumseh 2001 2571 4572 -570 43.77% 56.23% -12.47%
Tecumseh Twp 631 527 1158 104 54.49% 45.51% 8.98%
Woodstock Twp 871 856 1727 15 50.43% 49.57% 0.87%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 20586 23062 43648 -2476 47.16% 52.84% -5.67%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Adrian 3525 4226 7751 -701 45.48% 54.52% -9.04%
Adrian Twp 2032 1342 3374 690 60.23% 39.77% 20.45%
Blissfield Twp 1207 798 2005 409 60.20% 39.80% 20.40%
Clinton Twp 984 836 1820 148 54.07% 45.93% 8.13%
Deerfield Twp 411 347 758 64 54.22% 45.78% 8.44%
Dover Twp 466 339 805 127 57.89% 42.11% 15.78%
Fairfield Twp 456 355 811 101 56.23% 43.77% 12.45%
Franklin Twp 892 657 1549 235 57.59% 42.41% 15.17%
Hudson 524 367 891 157 58.81% 41.19% 17.62%
Hudson Twp 418 333 751 85 55.66% 44.34% 11.32%
Macon Twp 525 311 836 214 62.80% 37.20% 25.60%
Madison Twp 1624 1251 2875 373 56.49% 43.51% 12.97%
Medina Twp 332 212 544 120 61.03% 38.97% 22.06%
Morenci 542 423 965 119 56.17% 43.83% 12.33%
Ogden Twp 363 201 564 162 64.36% 35.64% 28.72%
Palmyra Twp 588 483 1071 105 54.90% 45.10% 9.80%
Raisin Twp 2076 1655 3731 421 55.64% 44.36% 11.28%
Ridgeway Twp 497 303 800 194 62.13% 37.88% 24.25%
Riga Twp 508 284 792 224 64.14% 35.86% 28.28%
Rollin Twp 941 683 1624 258 57.94% 42.06% 15.89%
Rome Twp 551 348 899 203 61.29% 38.71% 22.58%
Seneca Twp 331 240 571 91 57.97% 42.03% 15.94%
Tecumseh 2410 2153 4563 257 52.82% 47.18% 5.63%
Tecumseh Twp 689 481 1170 208 58.89% 41.11% 17.78%
Woodstock Twp 970 755 1725 215 56.23% 43.77% 12.46%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23862 19383 43245 4479 55.18% 44.82% 10.36%








Last St Rep GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Adrian 2207 2382 4589 -175 48.09% 51.91% -3.81%
Adrian Twp 1512 886 2398 626 63.05% 36.95% 26.11%
Blissfield Twp 864 519 1383 345 62.47% 37.53% 24.95%
Clinton Twp 664 608 1272 56 52.20% 47.80% 4.40%
Deerfield Twp 289 191 480 98 60.21% 39.79% 20.42%
Dover Twp 372 136 508 236 73.23% 26.77% 46.46%
Fairfield Twp 371 185 556 186 66.73% 33.27% 33.45%
Franklin Twp 645 463 1108 182 58.21% 41.79% 16.43%
Hudson 408 186 594 222 68.69% 31.31% 37.37%
Hudson Twp 347 194 541 153 64.14% 35.86% 28.28%
Macon Twp 398 213 611 185 65.14% 34.86% 30.28%
Madison Twp 1234 775 2009 459 61.42% 38.58% 22.85%
Medina Twp 231 95 326 136 70.86% 29.14% 41.72%
Morenci 318 219 537 99 59.22% 40.78% 18.44%
Ogden Twp 265 117 382 148 69.37% 30.63% 38.74%
Palmyra Twp 462 267 729 195 63.37% 36.63% 26.75%
Raisin Twp 1398 1195 2593 203 53.91% 46.09% 7.83%
Ridgeway Twp 316 222 538 94 58.74% 41.26% 17.47%
Riga Twp 356 159 515 197 69.13% 30.87% 38.25%
Rollin Twp 793 394 1187 399 66.81% 33.19% 33.61%
Rome Twp 429 174 603 255 71.14% 28.86% 42.29%
Seneca Twp 239 125 364 114 65.66% 34.34% 31.32%
Tecumseh 1350 1814 3164 -464 42.67% 57.33% -14.66%
Tecumseh Twp 486 381 867 105 56.06% 43.94% 12.11%
Woodstock Twp 724 485 1209 239 59.88% 40.12% 19.77%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 16678 12385 29063 4293 57.39% 42.61% 14.77%

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