Saturday, January 28, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 65 (HD-65)

State House - District 65
Current Rep - Mike Shirkey (R-Columbia Twp?)

Candidates:
GOP - Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake)
Dem -  Bonnie Johnson (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Shirkey has an easier district (slightly) than last time, but he's got a primary and general to contend with this time. I don't know much about the dems running here, but Shirkey's going to have to work. I know this and the 64th fairly well from my 2nd Amendment work. Nothing comes easy there for pols. It's a humbling independent district that reminds me of up north.  Keep an eye on this one. This and the 64th are bellwethers.

Update 7-15-2012 - I remembered that Dan Fulara is a RINO. My definition of RINO is not a liberal republican, but a democrat. Fulara supported Barack Obama in 2008. I hope Mike Shirkey whips his ass.

Update 8-30-2012 - Obama loving Fulara got taken out. He also had some campaign finance violations to take care of last I saw. Good riddance. Bonnie Johnson won the dems primary.

Old District (65th)
Mike Shirkey - 17,889
Janet D Rochefort - 10,405


Don't let the 2010 results fool you. This district in the heart of old free soil country flipped twice in the last decade. The district mirrors the old district with the exception of Eaton Township as new territory. It was an Obama district, but now a McCain one by 117 votes. The late Mike Simpson won with a much bigger margin than that for the dems when he was the rep. He was an exceptional candidate for the district which was held by a Republican before and after Simpson. If the dems find another Simpson type of candidate, they have a good chance. This is a populist person over party district I'm well familiar with. I expect a tough challenge here, like in the 64th district. Here, there are no strong anchors for the democrats outside arguably Leoni and Waterloo Townships. However if they do well in Leoni, Blackman, Hamlim, Waterloo, and Eaton Rapids, they have a good roadmap to win. Republican need to win at least one or preferably two of those to have a good chance to win, but they have more room for error with most of the other small rural areas theirs to lose.

On paper, this district leans Republican. In reality, I'd call it a very slight lean at best as Simpson proved it can be won. Don't take this one lightly. The folks here don't care much for politicians in general.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 414 356 770 58 53.77% 46.23% 7.53%
Eaton Rapids 1024 1257 2281 -233 44.89% 55.11% -10.21%
Eaton Township 1228 1090 2318 138 52.98% 47.02% 5.95%
Hamlin Twp 835 909 1744 -74 47.88% 52.12% -4.24%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 3646 4204 7850 -558 46.45% 53.55% -7.11%
Columbia Twp 2265 2011 4276 254 52.97% 47.03% 5.94%
Grass Lake Twp 1659 1430 3089 229 53.71% 46.29% 7.41%
Henrietta Twp 1161 1153 2314 8 50.17% 49.83% 0.35%
Leoni Twp 2930 3387 6317 -457 46.38% 53.62% -7.23%
Liberty Twp 1015 713 1728 302 58.74% 41.26% 17.48%
Norvell Twp 887 815 1702 72 52.12% 47.88% 4.23%
Rives Twp 1317 1005 2322 312 56.72% 43.28% 13.44%
Springport Twp 551 425 976 126 56.45% 43.55% 12.91%
Tompkins Twp 710 631 1341 79 52.95% 47.05% 5.89%
Waterloo Twp 650 787 1437 -137 45.23% 54.77% -9.53%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1636 1638 3274 -2 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Total 21928 21811 43739 117 50.13% 49.87% 0.27%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 427 268 695 159 61.44% 38.56% 22.88%
Eaton Rapids 1213 1053 2266 160 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Eaton Township 1455 868 2323 587 62.63% 37.37% 25.27%
Hamlin Twp 925 694 1619 231 57.13% 42.87% 14.27%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 4258 3454 7712 804 55.21% 44.79% 10.43%
Columbia Twp 2532 1693 4225 839 59.93% 40.07% 19.86%
Grass Lake Twp 1684 1132 2816 552 59.80% 40.20% 19.60%
Henrietta Twp 1196 952 2148 244 55.68% 44.32% 11.36%
Leoni Twp 3216 2971 6187 245 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Liberty Twp 1106 610 1716 496 64.45% 35.55% 28.90%
Norvell Twp 962 774 1736 188 55.41% 44.59% 10.83%
Rives Twp 1464 809 2273 655 64.41% 35.59% 28.82%
Springport Twp 577 332 909 245 63.48% 36.52% 26.95%
Tompkins Twp 772 537 1309 235 58.98% 41.02% 17.95%
Waterloo Twp 771 701 1472 70 52.38% 47.62% 4.76%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1813 1404 3217 409 56.36% 43.64% 12.71%
Total 24371 18252 42623 6119 57.18% 42.82% 14.36%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 344 195 539 149 63.82% 36.18% 27.64%
Eaton Rapids 943 573 1516 370 62.20% 37.80% 24.41%
Eaton Township

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp 790 491 1281 299 61.67% 38.33% 23.34%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 2988 1919 4907 1069 60.89% 39.11% 21.79%
Columbia Twp 2084 1021 3105 1063 67.12% 32.88% 34.24%
Grass Lake Twp 1507 749 2256 758 66.80% 33.20% 33.60%
Henrietta Twp 923 628 1551 295 59.51% 40.49% 19.02%
Leoni Twp 2452 1731 4183 721 58.62% 41.38% 17.24%
Liberty Twp 898 355 1253 543 71.67% 28.33% 43.34%
Norvell Twp 784 432 1216 352 64.47% 35.53% 28.95%
Rives Twp 1118 505 1623 613 68.88% 31.12% 37.77%
Springport Twp 429 176 605 253 70.91% 29.09% 41.82%
Tompkins Twp 600 378 978 222 61.35% 38.65% 22.70%
Waterloo Twp 529 408 937 121 56.46% 43.54% 12.91%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1500 844 2344 656 63.99% 36.01% 27.99%
Total 17889 10405 28294 7484 63.23% 36.77% 26.45%

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