Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Bouchard/Butler Results

The Butler/Bouchard race was very interesting by dynamics. It was a West Michigan vs East Michigan vs North Michigan matchup.

Butler won five counties, all in West Michigan. Allegan, Newaygo, Ottawa, Kent, and Barry County. Butler was close in Ionia, Muskegon, and Montcalm Counties as well - all west of Lansing. I expected him to do well there.

Bouchard did best in Northern Lower Michigan. 16 of his 18 best counties were Up North. Crawford County (Grayling) was his best county - where he got 75.38% of the vote. That does not surprise me. I expected North Michigan to be Bouchard dominent.

In East Michigan, I expected things to be close. Bouchard dominated. Butler only kept Bouchard under 10% in Lenawee County, and I suspect much of that had to do with Tim Walberg's coattails. Bouchard took 57.83% in Wayne County, 58.57% in Genesee County, 60.49% in Lapeer County, 60.85% in Livingston County, 62.58% in St Clair County, 62.80% in Monroe County, 66.06% in Macomb County and 68.16% in Oakland County. This was the difference maker.

Two BIG suprises to me were Washtenaw and Ingham Counties. Ingham went $62.25 for Bouchard and Washtenaw went 56.93% for Bouchard. I expected about 70% Bouchard in Washtenaw and for Butler to win Ingham County since he had a lot of core support in Lansing - or so it seemed.

Congratulations to Mike Bouchard, and good luck to him against Stabenow.


Keith Richards said...

Butler did pretty bad in Wayne County too, an area where he needed good numbers to win. This is especially significant since so many Butler supporters insisted that he could win in November specifically due to all the votes he would get in November from Wayne County. If he was unable to win Wayne County in the primaries it is doubtful he would have done especially well there in the general election.

RKG said...

The format of the primary - no ticket splitting - made it hard for Wayne County voters (i.e., blacks) to vote for Butler. The county, as a whole, and the City of Detroit in particular is so overwhelmingly Democrat that the winner of the Democatric primary is assured of victory in November, just as is true here in Livingston County of Republicans. Voting for Butler would mean not being able to vote for State Rep, State Senate, etc. If voters were able to ticket split, the outcome may well have been different. I would have enjoyed a Butler/Stabenaw race and, as a voter not concerned with party affiliation, think Butler would have been a great candidate.

Keith Richards said...

Butler was definitely an interesting candidate. I met and talked to him several times and he always made a good impression on me.

His big mistake was not working harder in the early days of his campaign when he was the party annointed running without competition. Other people have commented that his campaign was very poor about returning emails and phone calls making him seem aloof and unapproachable. Compare his performance to that of Zandstra, who won over a huge following while campaigning on a shoestring, mostly by traveling back and forth across the state and making an effort to personally win over key Republicans in every county. The big problem with Zandstra was that he lacked name recognition and political experience and this scared off big donars. Without sufficient funding he was unable to get all the help he needed.

Bouchard will be a great candidate but I think he lacks the leadership potential of Jerry Zandstra and the chrisma of Keith Butler.

AuH2ORepublican said...

Probably 99% of the Wayne County Republican primary voters were white. When people (including I) said that Butler could beat Stabenow by doing better in Wayne County, they meant that if he got 20% of the black vote in Detroit instead of the usual 5% for Republican candidates, but most of these potential Butler voters were either voting in the Democrat primaries or were not yet ready to vote in a GOP primary.