I'm going to probably stick my size 13 boot in my mouth with some of these, but we'll see.
Primary Predictions
Outstate:
Ned Lamont beats Joe Lieberman in Connecticutt 54-46
Cynthia McKinney hangs on in Dekalb County GA's runoff against Hank Johnson 51-49
Senate - Upset Special:
Keith Butler edges Mike Bouchard 51-49. Evangelical turnout causes a shocker. I'm still undecided on this and will likely be so until I show up at the polls.
Congress:
District 7 - I hope I'm wrong, but I think Schwarz hangs on due to establishment support, a lucky break by the NRA's poor decision, and democrat crossvotes. That said, it will be very close. 52-48 Schwarz.
District 8 - Mike Rogers wins easily. Flynn gets some hardliners and democrat crossvotes, but not enough. Mike's no Joe Schwarz and keeps most of his conservative support. 82-18.
District 9 - Pan Godchaux is running on the left flank of Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg's faced tough challenges before in generals (David Fink), but not in primary. The bad news for Godchaux is that primaries bring out conservative voters, and gun owners will be out for Knollenberg as well for this one. Knollenberg wins 71-29.
State Senate
Valde Garcia is challenged by Barton Hellmuth. Hellmuth isn't spending a dime, and his comment in the paper on raising diesel taxes is not going to go over well here. 82-18 Garcia wins.
Judicial Races
District - Theresa Brennan and Jay Drick move on to the general. 42-40-18 Brennan, Drick, and Heikkinen in that order - setting up a major battle in November.
District - Bill McCririe has the most election experience and will move on to the general. The other spot is probably a tossup. I except the west side to back Linda Walker, and Carol Sue Reader to do better in the Howell and Brighton area. The question is whether Fowlerville votes for Walker as much as they did for Hune.
Probate - Toughest for me to predict since anything can happen in six way races. I'll predict Bob Parker and Roberta Balon-Vaugn due to election experience, but anything can happen here. If I'm wrong in a prediction, it'll be here.
Millages
Renewals pass
ALL of the new ones FAIL.
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6 comments:
Mc...Mc...I got it McKevins......
I'd much rather see Lyle Dickson and Roberta Balon-Vaughn both make it to the final. Would it happen or not, I don't know.
Schwartz will lose.
He's been desperate to hold onto the seat for two years.
All of his flaws as televised are obvious.
Everything good he did in office are things anyone could have pulled off.
Primary Predictions
Outstate:
Joe Lieberman beats Ned Lamont.
Hank Johnson beats Cynthia McKinney
Senate
No upset here. Keith Butler does edge Mike Bouchard 51-49 and give us our best opportunity to beat Stabenow in November
Congress:
District 7
Schwarz loses to Walberg by big margin -- establishment or not.
District 8 -
Mike Rogers stomps Flynn.
District 9 -
Knollenberg wins with 60%
State Senate
Garcia wins easily.
Judicial Races
District - Theresa Brennan and Jay Drick move on to the general.
District - Bill McCririe and Carol Sue Reader move on to November
Probate - Roberta Balon-Vaugn and Parker
"Mike Rogers stomps Flynn."
Well people, don't let that happen. It's up to you.
Check the facts:
Mike's OK with the party's move to the left.
He opposed Michigan's Human Life Amendment.
He gave $10,000 to liberal Joe Schwarz this cycle.
After researching the database, It's apparent he did not personally sign Michigan's marriage amendment petition in 2004.
He is pro affirmative action and opposed to MCRI as a Michigander.
He is not opposed to the destruction of human embryos, only specific funding.
Finally, he's evasive with his constituents when dealing with hot-button topics.
He's not a jerk or a creep. He is most likely a devoted husband and father. His politics and policies, however, are subject to both scrutiny and challenge.
People just need to do the right thing in the voting booth.
AuH2O - Walberg's chances depend on where the turnout comes from. If it is Battle Creek and Eaton County (his State Senate district), Schwarz wins. If it is Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties, Walberg wins. The key swings are Jackson, West Washtenaw, and Branch counties.
As for Butler/Bouchard, no one has really run away with the momentum. I'm following my gut on that one.
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