I had a good baseball average in predictions this time. Overall, turnout sucked at 21.57% It was atrocious and lower than the Howell School Board race. I don't know of two better terms to descrive it besides sucks and atrocious.
US Senate (Livingston Only)
Mike Bouchard - 10484
Keith Butler - 6744
I'll address this race later. Bouchard won rather easily statewide. Butler won a few counties in West Michigan, but lost the rest of them handily. I thought it would have been a much closer race. Good luck to Bouchard.
US Congress (Livingston Only)
Mike Rogers - 15456
Patrick Flynn - 2973
About as expected here. Mike won easily overall. Patrick Flynn simply picked the wrong opponent to run against. I hope Patrick stays active in the community.
State Senate (Livingston Only)
Valde Garcia - 13385
Barton Hellmuth - 4106
This was also as expected. Barton was on Howell School Board and has more name ID than Flynn, but Garcia is popular and wasn't going to be turned out by an opponent who spent no money and ran fiscally to his left.
County Commish 5
Don Parker - 838
Susan Charron Spagnolio (sp) - 775
This was close as expected. I suspect Parker's name ID and fiscal conservatism carried him through. He's the most fiscally conservative of the county commissioners. Don's unopposed in November.
County Commish 8 (Democrat)
Dave Buckland - 417
Nick Bosak - 247
Dave Buckland will face Dennis Dolan in November. I haven't followed this race. Debby Buckland is an active democrat volunteer and I believe was Howard Dean's campaign chair for the county.
Judges:
Theresa Brennan - 14501
Jay Drick - 6704
Christina Heikkinen - 2323
Good news and bad news. The bad news is that we got crushed so far. I thought it would have been much closer. The good news is that we still made the playoffs, albeit as an "8 seed". Name ID (or lack of it) was a killer. There's three months to regroup, and with the low turnout, it's not over.
Bill McCririe - 10101
Carol Sue Reader - 6714
Linda Walker - 5368
This is about as I expected. McCririe wins, and it's close between Reader and Walker.
Probate Court:
Bob Parker - 5528
Carol Garagiola - 5390
Kathy Oemke - 4125
Suzanne Dugas - 3330
Roberta Balon-Vaughn - 2784
Lyle Dickson - 1078
Anthony Kandt - 913
This was the toughest to predict. I expected Parker to move on. I expected Vaughn to do much better considering the money she spent on this race. Oemke had a strong core following, but not the money. Dugas had roots in the county. Garagiola was a surprise second to me due to time in the county, but I underestimated last name ID. She was hitting doors as well, including my parents house in a rural area. I expect this race to be a very tough campaign on both sides.
Millages:
I predicted all renewals to pass, and all new ones to die. I was wrong here. 911 and police/fire millages usually do better than the other ones, and it showed here. Those passed.
911 (County)
Yes - 15076
No - 10835
Cohoctah proposal (Roads)
Yes - 224
No - 128
Green Oak Fire
Yes - 2270
No - 609
Green Oak Police
Yes - 2212
No - 666
Hamburg Bond
Yes - 1573
No - 1497
Hartland Fire
Yes - 976
No - 496
Howell Twp Road
Yes - 528
No - 466
Howell Area Parks
Yes - 2650
No - 3652
Brighton Fire
Yes - 3725
No - 3366
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6 comments:
I was looking forward to seeing how you were going to spin Drick’s crushing defeat. If this is the best you can do I’m very disappointed. Drick himself tried to spin it that he will do better in November when the turnout will be “60 or 70 percent” in the general election. That would apply if he were running as a Democrat where there were no primary contested elections, but the republicans, what he says is his base, had plenty of contested elections. If he thinks he’s going to see a 70 percent turnout in a mid-term election he needs to place a bet on the Lions to win the Super bowl. Both events could happen, but not very likely.
The results prove three things: The voters of Livingston County are smarter than you give them credit for, they don’t like smear campaigns and going negative is fine and it works, but when you go negative it has to be true. It was not in this case.
So the Howell Parks and Rec. did not pass? Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!! No new taxes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mr. Guru,
I think that while Dricks campaign needed to be bigger and better, he did a good job and will prove to be tough compition for Brennan, and her war protesting.
I agree with your assessments on Butler. The other thing that really hurt him is his $1 million in salary + benefits.
I don't think race was a strong factor here. If Keith Butler was a white guy who lived outside Detroit, I think it would have been similar in results. West Michigan absolutely hates Detroit, and Butler won there, including some of the whitest areas there.
You don’t get it do you Communist. Keep pumping out that stupid lie about Judge Brennan being the “Livingston County version of Jane Fonda” and watch the 61 percent go up to around 70 percent of the vote. The people of Livingston County are much smarter than you give them credit for, and they can see through BS.
You know Kahuna, three’s nothing wrong with going negative and going on the attack. Heck, they went negative on George Washington and Abe Lincoln. You just have to be sure the stuff you’re attacking with is true. These people here like dan, “curly sue” and communist don’t understand that or don't care. Thank goodness.
Well, 14,500 of us already know the truth. But again, you keep putting that lie out there, please, please, please. However, we will be there to counter your lie.
Please keep trellig your version of the "truth."
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