Canadian Oil now going to go to the Chinese

What a shocker.

Here, several hundred people gathered for hearings on whether a pipeline should be laid from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific in order to deliver oil to Asia, chiefly energy-hungry China. The stakes are particularly high for the village of Kitamaat and its neighbors, because the pipeline would terminate here and a port would be built to handle 220 tankers a year and 525,000 barrels of oil a day.

But the planned Northern Gateway Pipeline is just one aspect of an epic battle over Canada's oil ambitions — a battle that already has a supporting role in the U.S. presidential election, and which will help to shape North America's future energy relationship with China.

Thanks to Obama's buddies in global warming cult, oil from our allies next door may be going to China. This puts puts more of our own oil to be imported from folks that don't like us very much. Hugo Chavez, Saudi Arabia. This may be Obama's worst act of all as Chief Executive. I don't blame Canada for this. Obama told them to eff off. They need to look out for their own best interests and if the US doesn't want their oil, someone would take it. This is NO good reason for denying the pipeline. NONE. There are plenty of good reasons to support the permit. Jobs. More energy here. Pipeline going through one of our newest and biggest energy fields in North Dakota.

"But what about global warming."

Besides the fact that any 125 (at most) year study is beyond worthless (due to length) at judging long term planet climate which has changed several times in the past billions of years, the fact is that energy will be used. If it isn't used by us, someone will use it.

Obama needs to reverse course on this traitorous decision ASAP.

State House Redistricting - District 69 (HD-69)

State House - District 69
Current Rep - Mark Meadows (D-East Lansing) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Susan McGillicuddy (R-Okemos)
DEM - Sam Singh (D-East Lansing)

Update 5-27-2012 - Meadows is out, but the dems have a strong candidate in Sam Singh. McGillicuddy has won before in Meridian Twp, but the only chance we have against this is the perfect storm of cleaning up the rural areas, winning Meridian by a good number, and East Lansing staying home. The only way Lynn Jondahl's seat flips is in a 1994 type of year, and even Laura Baird took the seat that year.

Update 8-30-2012 - Singh and McGillicuddy are the primary winners.

Old District (69th)
Mark Meadows - 16,782
Susan McGillicuddy - 10452

This district covered East Lansing, Okemos, and Williamstown Twp has been democrat for years. This district picks up Locke Twp but otherwise stays the same. It was Lynn Jondahl's district for about 20 years, then succeeded by Laura Baird, Gretchen Whitmer, and now Mark Meadows. It was supposedly competitive in 1998 and 2000, but I don't think it was that winnable even before East Lansing and next door Meridian Twp (Okemos/Haslett) got even bluer than it was. Meridian Twp is no longer competitive, and Williamstown Twp is now competitive. Government Workers and MSU dominate this district, and it's safe and will continue to be so for the dems barring surprises.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	5376	17179	22555	-11803	23.84%	76.16%	-52.33%
Locke Twp	549	471	1020	78	53.82%	46.18%	7.65%
Meridian Twp	8080	14288	22368	-6208	36.12%	63.88%	-27.75%
Williamstown Twp	1582	1653	3235	-71	48.90%	51.10%	-2.19%
Total	15587	33591	49178	-18004	31.70%	68.30%	-36.61%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	5119	12647	17766	-7528	28.81%	71.19%	-42.37%
Locke Twp	657	361	1018	296	64.54%	35.46%	29.08%
Meridian Twp	9589	12378	21967	-2789	43.65%	56.35%	-12.70%
Williamstown Twp	1824	1373	3197	451	57.05%	42.95%	14.11%
Total	17189	26759	43948	-9570	39.11%	60.89%	-21.78%
Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	2475	6566	9041	-4091	27.38%	72.62%	-45.25%
Locke Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Meridian Twp	6612	8992	15604	-2380	42.37%	57.63%	-15.25%
Williamstown Twp	1365	1224	2589	141	52.72%	47.28%	5.45%
Total	10452	16782	27234	-6330	38.38%	61.62%	-23.24%

State House Redistricting - District 68 (HD-68)

State House - District 68
Current Rep - Joan Bauer (D-Lansing) - Termed Out

Candidates:
GOP - Timothy Moede (R-Lansing)
Dem - Andy Schorr (D-Lansing)

Update 5-26-2012 - That's a primary. I'm not going to even hazard a guess here, although I've seen a lot of Leeman and Schorr signs for other races in past elections.

Update 8-30-2012 - Timothy Moede and Andy Schor won their primaries.

Old District (68th)
Joan Bauer - 22,833
Harilaos Sorovigas - 6,075

This district expands some to take more of Lansing. It picks up parts of SW Lansing making this district even more Democrat. It still covers most of Lansing and Lansing Township and is safe for the democrats due to unions, MSU on the east, government workers, and minorities. It was a 74.7% Obama district and usually runs about 2/3 dem at the top of the ticket.

State House Redistricting - District 67 (HD-67)

State House - District 67
Current Rep - Barb Byrum (D-Onondaga Twp) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Jeff Osterle (R-Mason)
Dem - Tom Cochrane (D-Mason),

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a big battle. It's been "good enough to lose" for the GOP who wanted a shot at this fair fight district. We thought we had it in 2002, but Dianne Byrum jumped in. Byrum runs well in the rural areas. Barb Byrum, her daughter, replaced her. This year there's no Byrum running. Jeff Osterle gave a good go at this seat in 2010. He wants another shot at it, but has to get past Ashley Kring first. Three dems are running.

Update 8-30-2012 - Osterle gets another chance. Tom Cochrane's the candidate for the dems. 

Old District (67th)
Barb Byrum - 17,823
Jeff Osterle - 15,962

This district was possibly the most frustrating district for the GOP in the state. It was created as a close to 50/50 district to give the GOP as shot. We thought we had it in 2002. Then Dianne Byrum who runs well in rural areas, dropped from state senate to state rep. Barb, her daughter, took her place. There's small subtle changes to this district.

It covers all of Southern Ingham County. It drops Locke Township to the 69th district. More importantly, it takes a bit of South Central Lansing and drops Southwest Lansing, which is what made the difference for Byrum last election. Byrum took Lansing by 3100 votes, and SW Lansing is more heavily minority.

This was a 56% Obama district according to Dave's Redistricting app. I believe the old district went for Bush once and Gore. It was extremely close.

The GOP has a shot here in 08, but even without a Byrum running, it won't be easy. South Lansing is extremely democrat and will be a base for the dems. It doesn't have all of it, but still has enough to cause problems. Delhi Township, better known as Holt, isn't easy either, nor is Mason or Leslie. Those areas are keys and must wins to have a good shot at this. They are swing areas. Osterle split those areas against Byrum.

With the state house expected to be a big battleground, this district will be one of the most contested seats, especially as an open seat. It's improved some, but still won't be easy. I won't be surprised if either side wins it.

State House Redistricting - District 66 (HD-66)

State House - District 66
Current Rep - Aric Nesbitt (R-Antwerp Twp)

Candidates:
GOP - Aric Nesbitt (R-Antwerp Twp)
Dems - Richard Rajkovich (D-Mattawan)


Old District (80th)
Aric Nesbitt - 15,492
Thomas Erdmann - 7,850


The old 66th Bill Rogers district where I live is now mostly the 42nd District. Most of the new 66th district is the old 80th district with a few minor changes. The old and new district covers all of Van Buren County. The old district had parts of Allegan County (Otsego/Plainwell). The new district takes in Cooper and Alamo Townships in Kalamazoo County instead. That doesn't change much partisan wise. On paper, this is a swing district. On paper being the key as the GOP has held this for a long time, even in bad years. Covert and South Haven make this seat potentially difficult in any year. None of Van Buren County is that strongly Republican, unlike most of SW Michigan. A lot of the area is slightly leaning, but there are only two areas that went 60% for Bush. Covert Township is the big base for the democrats by percentage due to minorities, but there aren't many people there.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	15534	18588	34122	-3054	45.52%	54.48%	-8.95%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1198	1049	2247	149	53.32%	46.68%	6.63%
Cooper Twp	2635	2873	5508	-238	47.84%	52.16%	-4.32%
Total	19367	22510	41877	-3143	46.25%	53.75%	-7.51%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	17634	16151	33785	1483	52.19%	47.81%	4.39%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1288	918	2206	370	58.39%	41.61%	16.77%
Cooper Twp	2825	2462	5287	363	53.43%	46.57%	6.87%
Total	21747	19531	41278	2216	52.68%	47.32%	5.37%
Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	13508	6805	20313	6703	66.50%	33.50%	33.00%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Cooper Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	13508	6805	20313	6703	66.50%	33.50%	33.00%

State House Redistricting - District 65 (HD-65)

State House - District 65
Current Rep - Mike Shirkey (R-Columbia Twp?)

Candidates:
GOP - Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake)
Dem -  Bonnie Johnson (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Shirkey has an easier district (slightly) than last time, but he's got a primary and general to contend with this time. I don't know much about the dems running here, but Shirkey's going to have to work. I know this and the 64th fairly well from my 2nd Amendment work. Nothing comes easy there for pols. It's a humbling independent district that reminds me of up north.  Keep an eye on this one. This and the 64th are bellwethers.

Update 7-15-2012 - I remembered that Dan Fulara is a RINO. My definition of RINO is not a liberal republican, but a democrat. Fulara supported Barack Obama in 2008. I hope Mike Shirkey whips his ass.

Update 8-30-2012 - Obama loving Fulara got taken out. He also had some campaign finance violations to take care of last I saw. Good riddance. Bonnie Johnson won the dems primary.

Old District (65th)
Mike Shirkey - 17,889
Janet D Rochefort - 10,405


Don't let the 2010 results fool you. This district in the heart of old free soil country flipped twice in the last decade. The district mirrors the old district with the exception of Eaton Township as new territory. It was an Obama district, but now a McCain one by 117 votes. The late Mike Simpson won with a much bigger margin than that for the dems when he was the rep. He was an exceptional candidate for the district which was held by a Republican before and after Simpson. If the dems find another Simpson type of candidate, they have a good chance. This is a populist person over party district I'm well familiar with. I expect a tough challenge here, like in the 64th district. Here, there are no strong anchors for the democrats outside arguably Leoni and Waterloo Townships. However if they do well in Leoni, Blackman, Hamlim, Waterloo, and Eaton Rapids, they have a good roadmap to win. Republican need to win at least one or preferably two of those to have a good chance to win, but they have more room for error with most of the other small rural areas theirs to lose.

On paper, this district leans Republican. In reality, I'd call it a very slight lean at best as Simpson proved it can be won. Don't take this one lightly. The folks here don't care much for politicians in general.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	414	356	770	58	53.77%	46.23%	7.53%
Eaton Rapids	1024	1257	2281	-233	44.89%	55.11%	-10.21%
Eaton Township	1228	1090	2318	138	52.98%	47.02%	5.95%
Hamlin Twp	835	909	1744	-74	47.88%	52.12%	-4.24%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	3646	4204	7850	-558	46.45%	53.55%	-7.11%
Columbia Twp	2265	2011	4276	254	52.97%	47.03%	5.94%
Grass Lake Twp	1659	1430	3089	229	53.71%	46.29%	7.41%
Henrietta Twp	1161	1153	2314	8	50.17%	49.83%	0.35%
Leoni Twp	2930	3387	6317	-457	46.38%	53.62%	-7.23%
Liberty Twp	1015	713	1728	302	58.74%	41.26%	17.48%
Norvell Twp	887	815	1702	72	52.12%	47.88%	4.23%
Rives Twp	1317	1005	2322	312	56.72%	43.28%	13.44%
Springport Twp	551	425	976	126	56.45%	43.55%	12.91%
Tompkins Twp	710	631	1341	79	52.95%	47.05%	5.89%
Waterloo Twp	650	787	1437	-137	45.23%	54.77%	-9.53%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1636	1638	3274	-2	49.97%	50.03%	-0.06%
Total	21928	21811	43739	117	50.13%	49.87%	0.27%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	427	268	695	159	61.44%	38.56%	22.88%
Eaton Rapids	1213	1053	2266	160	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Eaton Township	1455	868	2323	587	62.63%	37.37%	25.27%
Hamlin Twp	925	694	1619	231	57.13%	42.87%	14.27%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	4258	3454	7712	804	55.21%	44.79%	10.43%
Columbia Twp	2532	1693	4225	839	59.93%	40.07%	19.86%
Grass Lake Twp	1684	1132	2816	552	59.80%	40.20%	19.60%
Henrietta Twp	1196	952	2148	244	55.68%	44.32%	11.36%
Leoni Twp	3216	2971	6187	245	51.98%	48.02%	3.96%
Liberty Twp	1106	610	1716	496	64.45%	35.55%	28.90%
Norvell Twp	962	774	1736	188	55.41%	44.59%	10.83%
Rives Twp	1464	809	2273	655	64.41%	35.59%	28.82%
Springport Twp	577	332	909	245	63.48%	36.52%	26.95%
Tompkins Twp	772	537	1309	235	58.98%	41.02%	17.95%
Waterloo Twp	771	701	1472	70	52.38%	47.62%	4.76%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1813	1404	3217	409	56.36%	43.64%	12.71%
Total	24371	18252	42623	6119	57.18%	42.82%	14.36%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	344	195	539	149	63.82%	36.18%	27.64%
Eaton Rapids	943	573	1516	370	62.20%	37.80%	24.41%
Eaton Township			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp	790	491	1281	299	61.67%	38.33%	23.34%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	2988	1919	4907	1069	60.89%	39.11%	21.79%
Columbia Twp	2084	1021	3105	1063	67.12%	32.88%	34.24%
Grass Lake Twp	1507	749	2256	758	66.80%	33.20%	33.60%
Henrietta Twp	923	628	1551	295	59.51%	40.49%	19.02%
Leoni Twp	2452	1731	4183	721	58.62%	41.38%	17.24%
Liberty Twp	898	355	1253	543	71.67%	28.33%	43.34%
Norvell Twp	784	432	1216	352	64.47%	35.53%	28.95%
Rives Twp	1118	505	1623	613	68.88%	31.12%	37.77%
Springport Twp	429	176	605	253	70.91%	29.09%	41.82%
Tompkins Twp	600	378	978	222	61.35%	38.65%	22.70%
Waterloo Twp	529	408	937	121	56.46%	43.54%	12.91%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1500	844	2344	656	63.99%	36.01%	27.99%
Total	17889	10405	28294	7484	63.23%	36.77%	26.45%

State House Redistricting - District 64 (HD-64)

State House - District 64
Current Rep - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)

Candidates:
GOP - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)
Dem - Barbara Shelton (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Interesting primary here. Marquez and his dad (also named Ruben) are both running for office. Dad's running for Congress and Junior is running for state rep. It sounds like they want to be the next Lamar Lemmons. This will be a tough defense, and turnout will be key. If Poleski isn't killed in Jackson, he'll win. If Spring Arbor and Summit Township comes through for him, he should win. If Marquez or Shelton get 4000 vote spreads in Jackson, this seat's gone.

Update 8-30-2012 - Shelton won the primary.

Old District (64th)
Earl Poleski - 15,649
Martin Griffin - 10,777

Jackson County has been ground zero for control of Michigan's legislature the past 10 years. Both districts here have flipped and aren't really safe, although they should lean our way. Martin Griffin was an incumbent who helped us by putting himself in trouble a bit. I believe his dad represented the district a long time before term limits. The republicans held this district for awhile. Martin Griffin beat an incumbent in a rematch. Griffin lost in 2010 to Earl Poleski who will have a tough test in 2012.

The old district covered Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp. The new district is exactly the same as the old district. The big keys here are two things. How well each candidate does in the base areas with turnout. How well the candidate makes inroads in the base areas of the other. Griffin did well in Republican Summit Township as well as his base area of Jackson when he won. Poleski won big in Summit Township and Spring Arbor, the big base areas for the GOP. He held the dems to under 60% in Jackson. Jackson is heavily democrat, but it's not Albion or Kalamazoo in its leaning. Mostly white union populists with a sizable, but not overwhelmingly minority area that would put this district out of reach.

Bush won the district twice. Obama won it in 08. It's winnable for either party and I expect it to be a target in 2010. 

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	758	633	1391	125	54.49%	45.51%	8.99%
Hanover Twp	1096	843	1939	253	56.52%	43.48%	13.05%
Jackson	4162	8856	13018	-4694	31.97%	68.03%	-36.06%
Napoleon Twp	1733	1712	3445	21	50.30%	49.70%	0.61%
Parma Twp	629	618	1247	11	50.44%	49.56%	0.88%
Pulaski Twp	579	405	984	174	58.84%	41.16%	17.68%
Sandstone Twp	1203	782	1985	421	60.60%	39.40%	21.21%
Spring Arbor Twp	2460	1418	3878	1042	63.43%	36.57%	26.87%
Summit Twp	6281	5652	11933	629	52.64%	47.36%	5.27%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18901	20919	39820	-2018	47.47%	52.53%	-5.07%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	843	483	1326	360	63.57%	36.43%	27.15%
Hanover Twp	1199	745	1944	454	61.68%	38.32%	23.35%
Jackson	5257	7142	12399	-1885	42.40%	57.60%	-15.20%
Napoleon Twp	1893	1494	3387	399	55.89%	44.11%	11.78%
Parma Twp	714	523	1237	191	57.72%	42.28%	15.44%
Pulaski Twp	635	363	998	272	63.63%	36.37%	27.25%
Sandstone Twp	1293	636	1929	657	67.03%	32.97%	34.06%
Spring Arbor Twp	2763	1105	3868	1658	71.43%	28.57%	42.86%
Summit Twp	6894	4579	11473	2315	60.09%	39.91%	20.18%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21491	17070	38561	4421	55.73%	44.27%	11.46%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	637	293	930	344	68.49%	31.51%	36.99%
Hanover Twp	948	431	1379	517	68.75%	31.25%	37.49%
Jackson	3108	4389	7497	-1281	41.46%	58.54%	-17.09%
Napoleon Twp	1426	910	2336	516	61.04%	38.96%	22.09%
Parma Twp	548	331	879	217	62.34%	37.66%	24.69%
Pulaski Twp	452	194	646	258	69.97%	30.03%	39.94%
Sandstone Twp	1035	414	1449	621	71.43%	28.57%	42.86%
Spring Arbor Twp	2126	674	2800	1452	75.93%	24.07%	51.86%
Summit Twp	5369	3141	8510	2228	63.09%	36.91%	26.18%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15649	10777	26426	4872	59.22%	40.78%	18.44%

State House Redistricting - District 63 (HD-63)

State House - District 63
Current Rep - Jace Bolger (R-Marshall)

Old District (63rd)
Jace Bolger - 20,135
Dave Morgan - 12,408

Candidates:
GOP - Jace Bolger  (R-Marshall)
Dem - Bill Farmer (R-Scotts)

This district got safe at the cost of conceding for probably 10 years the Battle Creek/Albion district (HD-62). Bolger never had any problems, but probably thought himself a target as he's Speaker. The only real bad spot in this district was adding one small part of Kalamazoo Twp and to a lesser extent Comstock Twp. It's still a 50% McCain district, which shouldn't be a problem anywhere west of Jackson County unless you have a poor candidate.

The new district includes all of Southern Calhoun County outside of Albion Twp. It also includes Marshall, Emmett Twp, and Margengo Twp in Calhoun County. It also has all of the eastern half of Kalamazoo County, as well as a small part of Kalamazoo Twp.

Bolger should have no problem getting a third term unless he blunders badly. The open seat will lean GOP.

State House Redistricting - District 62 (HD-62)

State House - District 62
Current Rep - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Old District (62nd)
Kate Segal - 14,188
Steven Mobley - 11,719

Candidates:
GOP - Mark Behnke (R-Battle Creek)
Dem - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Update 5-26-2012 - I'm not sure we could have a better candidate for our side than Mark Behnke. That makes me irked even more at the house redistricting committee for this district. Mark Behnke is former Mayor of Battle Creek and former city commissioner there. Considering that's a democrat leaning area, he's shown strength there. If he isn't completely killed in Albion or strongly overperforms in Springfield, he has a shot.

This district is entirely in Calhoun County. I don't like this district at all. They all but conceded a district to make Bolger more safe than he already is. The old district leaned democrat, but was won by Mike Nofs three times. The new district is even more democrat.

The old district covered Albion, Athens, 90%+ of Battle Creek, a small part of Bedford Twp, Burlington Twp, Clarence Twp, Clarendon Twp, Convis Twp, Eckford Twp, Fredonia Twp, Homer Twp, Lee Twp, Leroy Twp, Marengo Twp, Sheridan Twp, Sprinfield, and Tekonska Twp. The new district drops most of this and covers all of Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford Twp, Pennfield Twp, Convis Twp, Lee Twp, Clarence Twp, Sheridan Twp, and Albion. Keeping Albion, Springfield, and Battle Creek together is tough. Adding Bedford Twp makes it worse. Pennfield is the only good addition, but it's only good if Albion's removed. Did I mention that I don't like this district at all? John Kerry lost Calhoun County. John Kerry won this district.

Even the old district leaned slightly democrat. Mark Schauer held the old district before Mike Nofs took the open seat (and Schauer the State Senate seat). Kate Segal took the open seat after Nofs ran for State Senate when Schauer ran for congress and won, before losing the rematch. Segal survived 2010 as an incumbent and I believe has one term left.

I would have split Albion and Battle Creek if possible. That would make this much easier.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	719	2584	3303	-1865	21.77%	78.23%	-56.46%
Albion Twp	301	283	584	18	51.54%	48.46%	3.08%
Battle Creek	8916	13975	22891	-5059	38.95%	61.05%	-22.10%
Bedford Twp	2128	2583	4711	-455	45.17%	54.83%	-9.66%
Clarence Twp	574	439	1013	135	56.66%	43.34%	13.33%
Convis Twp	439	357	796	82	55.15%	44.85%	10.30%
Lee Twp	300	220	520	80	57.69%	42.31%	15.38%
Pennfield Twp	2405	2218	4623	187	52.02%	47.98%	4.04%
Sheridan Twp	412	390	802	22	51.37%	48.63%	2.74%
Springfield	689	1132	1821	-443	37.84%	62.16%	-24.33%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	16883	24181	41064	-7298	41.11%	58.89%	-17.77%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	896	2174	3070	-1278	29.19%	70.81%	-41.63%
Albion Twp	336	265	601	71	55.91%	44.09%	11.81%
Battle Creek	10314	11583	21897	-1269	47.10%	52.90%	-5.80%
Bedford Twp	2262	2264	4526	-2	49.98%	50.02%	-0.04%
Clarence Twp	640	376	1016	264	62.99%	37.01%	25.98%
Convis Twp	500	355	855	145	58.48%	41.52%	16.96%
Lee Twp	339	214	553	125	61.30%	38.70%	22.60%
Pennfield Twp	2680	1969	4649	711	57.65%	42.35%	15.29%
Sheridan Twp	428	394	822	34	52.07%	47.93%	4.14%
Springfield	877	1005	1882	-128	46.60%	53.40%	-6.80%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19272	20599	39871	-1327	48.34%	51.66%	-3.33%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	463	1623	2086	-1160	22.20%	77.80%	-55.61%
Albion Twp	197	226	423	-29	46.57%	53.43%	-6.86%
Battle Creek	5633	8174	13807	-2541	40.80%	59.20%	-18.40%
Bedford Twp	18	10	28	8	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%
Clarence Twp	424	306	730	118	58.08%	41.92%	16.16%
Convis Twp	302	239	541	63	55.82%	44.18%	11.65%
Lee Twp	223	123	346	100	64.45%	35.55%	28.90%
Pennfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sheridan Twp	269	283	552	-14	48.73%	51.27%	-2.54%
Springfield	399	563	962	-164	41.48%	58.52%	-17.05%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	7928	11547	19475	-3619	40.71%	59.29%	-18.58%

State House Redistricting - District 61 (HD-61)

State House - District 61
Current Rep - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)

Candidates:
GOP - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)
Dem - Michael Martin (D-Portage)

Update 5-26-2010 - I don't know anything about Martin. I'm keeping an eye on this although it's been "good enough to lose" for the dems.

Old District (61th)
Margaret O'Brien - 21,919
Thomas Batten - 13,671

This district is close on paper, but has been in the "good enough to lose" category for the democrats, much like the Alpena and West Branch seats were until recently. Jack Hoogendyk held this seat for three terms followed by Larry DeShazor's narrow win and now Margaret O'Brien who won easily.

The old district covered Alamo, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Parchment, Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp. The new district drops Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment, and Alamo Twp and adds Schoolcraft Twp. Alamo Twp went for McCain and Bush, Kalamazoo Twp went dem twice. Parchment went for Bush and Obama. Kalamazoo Twp is the biggest part that was dropped, so slight GOP advantage, although losing Alamo Twp hurt. Adding Schoolcraft Twp helped some.

On paper, this is a bit of a swing district. Off paper, it's elected Jack Hoogendyk three times. Jack's quite conservative, and outspokenly so. Oshtemo Twp leans democrat with WMU, but O'Brien won it. Portage is close at the top of the ticket, but is more GOP downticket. Portage is about 1/2 of the district. Texas Twp is the main GOP base. This is a district to keep an eye on as it's no stranger to tough elections, but it hasn't flipped even in two rough years (06/08).

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	4414	6565	10979	-2151	40.20%	59.80%	-19.59%
Portage	11448	14049	25497	-2601	44.90%	55.10%	-10.20%
Prairie Ronde Twp	770	538	1308	232	58.87%	41.13%	17.74%
Schoolcraft Twp	2164	2071	4235	93	51.10%	48.90%	2.20%
Texas Twp	4469	3864	8333	605	53.63%	46.37%	7.26%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23265	27087	50352	-3822	46.20%	53.80%	-7.59%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	4703	4850	9553	-147	49.23%	50.77%	-1.54%
Portage	13115	11597	24712	1518	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Prairie Ronde Twp	848	456	1304	392	65.03%	34.97%	30.06%
Schoolcraft Twp	2288	1652	3940	636	58.07%	41.93%	16.14%
Texas Twp	4509	2919	7428	1590	60.70%	39.30%	21.41%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25463	21474	46937	3989	54.25%	45.75%	8.50%
Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	3712	2827	6539	885	56.77%	43.23%	13.53%
Portage	10077	5847	15924	4230	63.28%	36.72%	26.56%
Prairie Ronde Twp	661	274	935	387	70.70%	29.30%	41.39%
Schoolcraft Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Texas Twp	3903	1711	5614	2192	69.52%	30.48%	39.05%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18353	10659	29012	7694	63.26%	36.74%	26.52%

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Why I'm pro-life

From the AP

Melinda Star Guido weighed only 9 ½ ounces at birth- less than a can of soda. After spending her early months in the neonatal intensive care unit, a team of doctors and nurses will gather Friday to see her off.

Melinda has been growing steadily and gaining weight since she was born premature at 24 weeks in August at the Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center. She is the world's third smallest baby and the second smallest in the U.S.

Now weighing 4½ pounds, doctors said Melinda has made enough progress to be discharged. It's too early to know how she will fare developmentally and physically, but doctors planned to monitor her for the next six years.

Born at 24 weeks and survived. That has me beat and I was born almost three months early.

Perry drops out

It's too bad that verbal gaffes and style count more than actual records these days. I originally supported Perry because of his record. I was rethinking due to his implosion, but was going full circle back there with my leanings again after Obama just screwed over this country once again to please his base of global warming nutters. He said no to the pipeline. Gas is around $3.50. Obama wants it $5.00. Send the oil from our Canadian allies to China instead. Good job. Really.

Perry was a better governor than he was a presidential campaigner. Perry wasn't a bad governor. He's experienced, and most importantly did not screw up the Texas economy like Granholm did here in Michigan. He also understood domestic energy and its importance. Perry's endorsed Newt. With Perry and Huntsman gone, it's down to Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Newt. Newt really isn't all that much different than Romney with the flips except a more conservative record than Mitt. Santorum's similar to Bush with his record. Ron Paul is who he is.

I'm going to wait and see what happens with South Carolina and Florida and make my final primary decision from there.

In other news, Conservative Jack Hoogendyk, former state rep and Core Principles blogger Jack Hoogendyk wants a rematch against moderate Fred Upton. Jack lost 42,182 to 31,660 in the little publicized (at least in East Michigan) 2010 primary. It may get more interesting this time. At worst, this pushes Upton to the right a bit on issues like energy.

State House Redistricting - District 60 (HD-60)

State House - District 60
Current Rep - Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo)

Candidates:
GOP - Mike Perrin (R-Kalamazoo)
Dem - Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo)

Old District (60th)
Sean McCann - 13,841
Jeff Fernandez - 8,024

This is one of the safest democrat districts in West Michigan. It has all of the City of Kalamazoo and part of Kalamazoo Township. The old district drops Cooper Township and takes in most, although not all, of Kalamazoo Township making it more democrat. The City of Kalamazoo is usually 60%+ democrat thanks to WMU, Kalamazoo College, and the minority population on the city's north side. According to Dave's redistricting, it was a 72% Obama district.

State House Redistricting - District 59 (HD-59)

State House - District 59
Current Rep - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)

Candidates:
GOP - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)
Dem - Mike Moroz (D-Dowagiac)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a one on one battle. I'm keeping an eye on it because I do have some outside concerns here due to Dowagiac being picked up. 

2010 Results - Old District (59th)
Matt Lori - 17,604
Carol Higgins - 6,846

This district expanded some with redistricting, although it is similar to the old incarnation. Both versions cover all of St Joseph County and part of Cass County. This district took more of Cass County.

The part of Cass County covered with the old district is Calvin, Jefferson, LaGrange, Marcellus, Mason, Milton, Newberg, Ontwa, Penn, Pokagon, Porter, and Volinia Townships. The new district drops Milton and Ontwa Townships and picks up Wayne Township and most notably Dowagiac. This district was safe GOP before, and probably leans that way now, but Dowagiac and Vandalia (Heavily minority village, corner of four townships, I think Calvin, Penn, LaGrange, Jefferson) together without heavy GOP Ontwa Twp makes me slightly nervous. McCain absolutely got hammered in SW Michigan compared to Bush. SW Michigan has more ties to South Bend and Chicago than it does to Detroit. Obama won the district.

I'll call this a lean district for now. That's due to this being a presidential year with a district "close" to Chicago/South Bend, and also due to the neighboring 78th district (with Dowagiac) being competitive in the past.

This one should stay ours, but shouldn't be taken for granted.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	12886	12322	25208	564	51.12%	48.88%	2.24%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	331	591	922	-260	35.90%	64.10%	-28.20%
Dowagiac City	667	1548	2215	-881	30.11%	69.89%	-39.77%
Jefferson Twp	611	577	1188	34	51.43%	48.57%	2.86%
Lagrange Twp	540	992	1532	-452	35.25%	64.75%	-29.50%
Marcellus Twp	464	603	1067	-139	43.49%	56.51%	-13.03%
Mason Twp	560	452	1012	108	55.34%	44.66%	10.67%
Newberg Twp	374	381	755	-7	49.54%	50.46%	-0.93%
Penn Twp	467	464	931	3	50.16%	49.84%	0.32%
Pokagon Twp	479	560	1039	-81	46.10%	53.90%	-7.80%
Porter Twp	1103	807	1910	296	57.75%	42.25%	15.50%
Volinia Twp	317	237	554	80	57.22%	42.78%	14.44%
Wayne Twp	566	630	1196	-64	47.32%	52.68%	-5.35%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19365	20164	39529	-799	48.99%	51.01%	-2.02%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	15340	9648	24988	5692	61.39%	38.61%	22.78%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	440	379	819	61	53.72%	46.28%	7.45%
Dowagiac City	951	1207	2158	-256	44.07%	55.93%	-11.86%
Jefferson Twp	656	444	1100	212	59.64%	40.36%	19.27%
Lagrange Twp	680	777	1457	-97	46.67%	53.33%	-6.66%
Marcellus Twp	599	521	1120	78	53.48%	46.52%	6.96%
Mason Twp	627	347	974	280	64.37%	35.63%	28.75%
Newberg Twp	455	310	765	145	59.48%	40.52%	18.95%
Penn Twp	519	391	910	128	57.03%	42.97%	14.07%
Pokagon Twp	541	450	991	91	54.59%	45.41%	9.18%
Porter Twp	1262	537	1799	725	70.15%	29.85%	40.30%
Volinia Twp	355	251	606	104	58.58%	41.42%	17.16%
Wayne Twp	666	543	1209	123	55.09%	44.91%	10.17%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23091	15805	38896	7286	59.37%	40.63%	18.73%
Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	11234	3945	15179	7289	74.01%	25.99%	48.02%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	289	204	493	85	58.62%	41.38%	17.24%
Dowagiac City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Jefferson Twp	506	254	760	252	66.58%	33.42%	33.16%
Lagrange Twp	457	347	804	110	56.84%	43.16%	13.68%
Marcellus Twp	381	253	634	128	60.09%	39.91%	20.19%
Mason Twp	477	141	618	336	77.18%	22.82%	54.37%
Newberg Twp	322	145	467	177	68.95%	31.05%	37.90%
Penn Twp	405	182	587	223	68.99%	31.01%	37.99%
Pokagon Twp	374	228	602	146	62.13%	37.87%	24.25%
Porter Twp	935	280	1215	655	76.95%	23.05%	53.91%
Volinia Twp	242	109	351	133	68.95%	31.05%	37.89%
Wayne Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15622	6088	21710	9534	71.96%	28.04%	43.92%