Congressional District 10 - Redistricted (MI-10)

Incumbents - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 10
The old 10th district is here

Challengers - Chuck Stadler (D-Vassar)

Update 8-30-2012 - Stadler won his primary.

Update - 5-16-2012 - Two dems are challenging Miller. I don't get why someone filing with a Rochester address is doing so.

This is probably the most unchanged district outside of maybe the 6th district. It doesn't lose anything except part of Sterling Heights which is already split. It picks up most of Tuscola County from Dale Kildee. Other than that, it stays the same. This district has been safe for Candice Miller, and was won by even McCain. I still wouldn't call it "safe" because there's been so much volatility at the local levels. There are plenty of ticket splitters in both Macomb County, and the thumb. Sanilac County will sometimes go 60%+ for candidates in both parties. The Huron/Tuscola district will vote for Mike Green, Jim Barcia, and John Espinoza by big numbers.

Miller has never had a difficult race for Congress running way ahead of Bush and McCain. Even Marlinga lost about 2-1 here. Most of the reps that could make things interesting have been defeated. The only one I see as a major threat off the top of my head is Mark Hackel, who is the new county executive. Hackel lives in Sterling Heights, so he could be in either Macomb County district.Outside of Hackel running, I don't see any competitive races here anytime soon unless Miller runs for Governor or Senate.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	8434	8367	16801	67	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Lapeer County	22831	21457	44288	1374	51.55%	48.45%	3.10%
Sanilac County	10679	9047	19726	1632	54.14%	45.86%	8.27%
St Clair County	38536	40677	79213	-2141	48.65%	51.35%	-2.70%
Tuscola County	13740	13503	27243	237	50.43%	49.57%	0.87%
Arbela Twp	-722	-842	-1564	120	46.16%	53.84%	-7.67%
Denmark Twp	-1086	-615	-1701	-471	63.84%	36.16%	27.69%
Gilford Twp	-246	-177	-423	-69	58.16%	41.84%	16.31%
Millington Twp	-1083	-1182	-2265	99	47.81%	52.19%	-4.37%
Tuscola Twp	-665	-428	-1093	-237	60.84%	39.16%	21.68%
Vassar City	-556	-658	-1214	102	45.80%	54.20%	-8.40%
Vassar Twp (part)	-874	-966	-1840	92	47.50%	52.50%	-5.00%
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1604	1252	2856	352	56.16%	43.84%	12.32%
Bruce Twp	2854	2041	4895	813	58.30%	41.70%	16.61%
Chesterfield Twp	10019	11050	21069	-1031	47.55%	52.45%	-4.89%
Harrison Twp	6610	6726	13336	-116	49.57%	50.43%	-0.87%
Lenox Twp	1880	2369	4249	-489	44.25%	55.75%	-11.51%
Macomb Twp	19579	18952	38531	627	50.81%	49.19%	1.63%
New Baltimore City	3003	2971	5974	32	50.27%	49.73%	0.54%
Ray Twp	1296	780	2076	516	62.43%	37.57%	24.86%
Richmond City	1454	1378	2832	76	51.34%	48.66%	2.68%
Richmond Twp	1142	723	1865	419	61.23%	38.77%	22.47%
Shelby Twp	20607	16877	37484	3730	54.98%	45.02%	9.95%
Sterling Heights (1/3)	9078	10563	19641	-1485	46.22%	53.78%	-7.56%
Utica City	1099	1228	2327	-129	47.23%	52.77%	-5.54%
Washington Twp	7741	5392	13133	2349	58.94%	41.06%	17.89%
Total	176954	170485	347439	6469	50.93%	49.07%	1.86%
2008
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	9671	7629	17300	2042	55.90%	44.10%	11.80%
Lapeer County	25556	18086	43642	7470	58.56%	41.44%	17.12%
Sanilac County	12632	7883	20515	4749	61.57%	38.43%	23.15%
St Clair County	42740	36174	78914	6566	54.16%	45.84%	8.32%
Tuscola County	15389	12631	28020	2758	54.92%	45.08%	9.84%
Arbela Twp	-722	-842	-1564	120	46.16%	53.84%	-7.67%
Denmark Twp	-1086	-615	-1701	-471	63.84%	36.16%	27.69%
Gilford Twp	-246	-177	-423	-69	58.16%	41.84%	16.31%
Millington Twp	-1083	-1182	-2265	99	47.81%	52.19%	-4.37%
Tuscola Twp	-665	-428	-1093	-237	60.84%	39.16%	21.68%
Vassar City	-556	-658	-1214	102	45.80%	54.20%	-8.40%
Vassar Twp (part)	-874	-966	-1840	92	47.50%	52.50%	-5.00%
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Armada Twp	1797	1062	2859	735	62.85%	37.15%	25.71%
Bruce Twp	2976	1731	4707	1245	63.22%	36.78%	26.45%
Chesterfield Twp	10533	8853	19386	1680	54.33%	45.67%	8.67%
Harrison Twp	6946	5906	12852	1040	54.05%	45.95%	8.09%
Lenox Twp	1890	1736	3626	154	52.12%	47.88%	4.25%
Macomb Twp	19496	14342	33838	5154	57.62%	42.38%	15.23%
New Baltimore City	3103	2440	5543	663	55.98%	44.02%	11.96%
Ray Twp	1315	707	2022	608	65.03%	34.97%	30.07%
Richmond City	1610	1177	2787	433	57.77%	42.23%	15.54%
Richmond Twp	1156	674	1830	482	63.17%	36.83%	26.34%
Shelby Twp	20921	13452	34373	7469	60.86%	39.14%	21.73%
Sterling Heights (1/3)	10192	9470	19662	722	51.84%	48.16%	3.67%
Utica City	1147	1077	2224	70	51.57%	48.43%	3.15%
Washington Twp	7526	4300	11826	3226	63.64%	36.36%	27.28%
Total	191364	144462	335826	46902	56.98%	43.02%	13.97%

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)

Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1431	2462	3893	-1031	36.76%	63.24%	-26.48%
Clinton Twp	21133	27722	48855	-6589	43.26%	56.74%	-13.49%
Eastpointe	4670	11182	15852	-6512	29.46%	70.54%	-41.08%
Fraser	3601	4161	7762	-560	46.39%	53.61%	-7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	27	13	40	14	67.50%	32.50%	35.00%
Mt Clemens	2393	5171	7564	-2778	31.64%	68.36%	-36.73%
Roseville	7679	13739	21418	-6060	35.85%	64.15%	-28.29%
St Clair Shores	16098	18531	34629	-2433	46.49%	53.51%	-7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	18157	21126	39283	-2969	46.22%	53.78%	-7.56%
Warren	24006	36901	60907	-12895	39.41%	60.59%	-21.17%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	3560	5715	9275	-2155	38.38%	61.62%	-23.23%
Bloomfield Twp	14368	12886	27254	1482	52.72%	47.28%	5.44%
Clawson (1/5)	600	782	1382	-182	43.42%	56.58%	-13.17%
Ferndale	2621	8532	11153	-5911	23.50%	76.50%	-53.00%
Hazel Park	2279	4461	6740	-2182	33.81%	66.19%	-32.37%
Huntington Woods	1041	3255	4296	-2214	24.23%	75.77%	-51.54%
Madison Heights	5088	8017	13105	-2929	38.82%	61.18%	-22.35%
Pleasant Ridge	512	1311	1823	-799	28.09%	71.91%	-43.83%
Royal Oak	13094	21650	34744	-8556	37.69%	62.31%	-24.63%
Southfield Twp	4570	4925	9495	-355	48.13%	51.87%	-3.74%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	146928	212542	359470	-65614	40.87%	59.13%	-18.25%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	1613	2312	3925	-699	41.10%	58.90%	-17.81%
Clinton Twp	23332	23842	47174	-510	49.46%	50.54%	-1.08%
Eastpointe	5838	9766	15604	-3928	37.41%	62.59%	-25.17%
Fraser	3893	3959	7852	-66	49.58%	50.42%	-0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	33	15	48	18	68.75%	31.25%	37.50%
Mt Clemens	2766	4419	7185	-1653	38.50%	61.50%	-23.01%
Roseville	8660	12738	21398	-4078	40.47%	59.53%	-19.06%
St Clair Shores	17512	18088	35600	-576	49.19%	50.81%	-1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	20385	18941	39326	1444	51.84%	48.16%	3.67%
Warren	26991	34697	61688	-7706	43.75%	56.25%	-12.49%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley	4315	5027	9342	-712	46.19%	53.81%	-7.62%
Bloomfield Twp	16314	11197	27511	5117	59.30%	40.70%	18.60%
Clawson (1/5)	716	694	1410	22	50.78%	49.22%	1.56%
Ferndale	3456	7637	11093	-4181	31.15%	68.85%	-37.69%
Hazel Park	2780	4412	7192	-1632	38.65%	61.35%	-22.69%
Huntington Woods	1236	3068	4304	-1832	28.72%	71.28%	-42.57%
Madison Heights	5934	7443	13377	-1509	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Pleasant Ridge	658	1140	1798	-482	36.60%	63.40%	-26.81%
Royal Oak	15529	19143	34672	-3614	44.79%	55.21%	-10.42%
Southfield Twp	5245	4376	9621	869	54.52%	45.48%	9.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	167206	192914	360120	-25708	46.43%	53.57%	-7.14%
	Volaric	Levin	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Macomb County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Center Line	876	1405	2281	-529	38.40%	61.60%	-23.19%
Clinton Twp	14475	14784	29259	-309	49.47%	50.53%	-1.06%
Eastpointe	2859	6438	9297	-3579	30.75%	69.25%	-38.50%
Fraser	2423	2345	4768	78	50.82%	49.18%	1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores	21	12	33	9	63.64%	36.36%	27.27%
Mt Clemens	1597	2785	4382	-1188	36.44%	63.56%	-27.11%
Roseville	4663	7051	11714	-2388	39.81%	60.19%	-20.39%
St Clair Shores	11182	11898	23080	-716	48.45%	51.55%	-3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3)	5003	5385	10388	-382	48.16%	51.84%	-3.68%
Warren	15443	20860	36303	-5417	42.54%	57.46%	-14.92%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berkley			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferndale	1649	4693	6342	-3044	26.00%	74.00%	-48.00%
Hazel Park	1263	2034	3297	-771	38.31%	61.69%	-23.38%
Huntington Woods	763	2440	3203	-1677	23.82%	76.18%	-52.36%
Madison Heights	3240	4089	7329	-849	44.21%	55.79%	-11.58%
Pleasant Ridge	403	930	1333	-527	30.23%	69.77%	-39.53%
Royal Oak	732	1148	1880	-416	38.94%	61.06%	-22.13%
Southfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	66592	88297	154889	-21705	42.99%	57.01%	-14.01%

Congressional District 8 - Redistricted (MI-08)

Incumbent - Mike Rogers (R-Brighton/Howell)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 12
The old 8th District information is here

Challengers -  Lance Enderle (D-Lansing),

Update 8-30-2012 - Mike won his primary and will rematch with Lance Enderle in the general.

UPDATE - 5-1-2012 - Lance Enderle for the dems is running in a rematch of the 2010 matchup. Enderle unlike last election has been the candidate from the start instead of replacing a quitter who dropped when he wasn't getting the funding he thought he would get.

UPDATE 5-16-2012 - Michael Magdich is a Wayne County recent transplant who wants to give us Wayne County politics. In addition Molnar (unless it is another Vernon Molnar) ran against John Gleason in another district. Hetrick I'm not familiar with, outside of hearing that name before somewhere.


The old 8th district had to actually shrink people because it was fast growing and other areas dropped their population. It dropped Clinton and Shiawassee Counties, giving them back to Dave Camp. It picked up Oakland Township, the rest of Orion Township, Rochester, and most of Rochester Hills in Oakland County. That was picked up from Gary Peters.

The old district had about a 29000 vote spread for Bush and about a 26000 vote spread for Obama. The new district had about a 34000 vote spread for Bush and 21000 vote spread for Obama. I think it's actually slightly tougher for Mike though since he always ran well in Clinton and Shiawassee Counties and is giving those areas up.

I'm putting up the 08 numbers for Mike instead of 2010. The dems in 2010 for this district were an absolute joke. Kande Ngalamulume was the original opponent. He ran, and then whined and quit when major financial support did not immediately go his way. He didn't show that he was stronger than Bob Alexander or Jim Marcinkowski. Nglamulume and his campaign manager didn't like that so they whined about the lack of support, quit, and moved backed to Pennsylvania. He still won the primary against a write in candidate by Lande Enderle. Enderle actually wasn't a joke and did the best he could in a no-win situation. Eventually due to Nglamulume's move, Enderle was able to get on the ballot as a replacement although there wasn't much time for a candidacy.

Any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos together is never going to be truly safe for a Republican. Any district with North Oakland and Livingston County together is never going to be safe for a democrat. North Oakland is like the old Oakland County of the 80's. Livingston County hasn't voted for a democrat countywide since Frank Kelley in either 1990 or 1986.

Under the old district, North Oakland had a 19000 vote spread for Bush and 9000 spread for McCain. Livingston was almost 25000 and 14000. Ingham County outside of the Lansing area is competitive. It had a 6500 vote spread for Bush and about a 300 vote spread for Obama. The Lansing area however was about a 26000 vote spread for Kerry and almost 48000 vote spread for Obama. To win this district you have to rack up big numbers with the base votes, and also reduce your opponent's base. Rogers runs well in Ingham County, specifically the rural areas and to a lesser extent, Lansing. In 2008, Rogers lost the Lansing area by less than half of what McCain did and won the new portion district with about 45000 votes to spare.

The only way I see Rogers not running for re-election in this district is if he's bumped off the Intelligence Committee. That's the one he wanted for years. If he runs for senate or governor, he'll have to give up his chairmanship of the committee. I don't think he wants to do that. If this seat opens up there's no shortage of strong candidates. On the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson could win this. On the dems side, Virg Bernero, Gretchen Whitmer, Dianne or Barb Byrum, or Dave Hollister could be a threat.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	46483	93994	140477	-47511	33.09%	66.91%	-33.82%
Livingston County	55592	42349	97941	13243	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2248	1339	3587	909	62.67%	37.33%	25.34%
Brandon Twp	4834	3564	8398	1270	57.56%	42.44%	15.12%
Clarkston City	298	252	550	46	54.18%	45.82%	8.36%
Groveland Twp	1769	1275	3044	494	58.11%	41.89%	16.23%
Holly Twp	2678	2969	5647	-291	47.42%	52.58%	-5.15%
Independence Twp	11000	8253	19253	2747	57.13%	42.87%	14.27%
Oakland Twp	5965	3679	9644	2286	61.85%	38.15%	23.70%
Orion Twp	10042	8512	18554	1530	54.12%	45.88%	8.25%
Oxford Twp	5836	4484	10320	1352	56.55%	43.45%	13.10%
Rochester	3515	3319	6834	196	51.43%	48.57%	2.87%
Rochester Hills (part)	19919	18834	38753	1085	51.40%	48.60%	2.80%
Rose Twp	1936	1573	3509	363	55.17%	44.83%	10.34%
Springfield Twp	4654	3176	7830	1478	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Total	176769	197572	374341	-20803	47.22%	52.78%	-5.56%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	54734	76877	131611	-22143	41.59%	58.41%	-16.82%
Livingston County	58860	33991	92851	24869	63.39%	36.61%	26.78%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2406	1113	3519	1293	68.37%	31.63%	36.74%
Brandon Twp	4852	3030	7882	1822	61.56%	38.44%	23.12%
Clarkston City	322	252	574	70	56.10%	43.90%	12.20%
Groveland Twp	1988	1204	3192	784	62.28%	37.72%	24.56%
Holly Twp	2813	2442	5255	371	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Independence Twp	12199	6847	19046	5352	64.05%	35.95%	28.10%
Oakland Twp	6212	2898	9110	3314	68.19%	31.81%	36.38%
Orion Twp	11362	6887	18249	4475	62.26%	37.74%	24.52%
Oxford Twp	6155	3577	9732	2578	63.24%	36.76%	26.49%
Rochester	3979	2647	6626	1332	60.05%	39.95%	20.10%
Rochester Hills (part)	22733	15571	38304	7162	59.35%	40.65%	18.70%
Rose Twp	2139	1337	3476	802	61.54%	38.46%	23.07%
Springfield Twp	4946	2710	7656	2236	64.60%	35.40%	29.21%
Total	195700	161383	357083	34317	54.81%	45.19%	9.61%
2008
	Rogers	Alexander	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ingham County	60867	72386	133253	-11519	45.68%	54.32%	-8.64%
Livingston County	63946	29186	93132	34760	68.66%	31.34%	37.32%
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Addison Twp	2310	940	3250	1370	71.08%	28.92%	42.15%
Brandon Twp	4504	2693	7197	1811	62.58%	37.42%	25.16%
Clarkston City	344	179	523	165	65.77%	34.23%	31.55%
Groveland Twp	1813	943	2756	870	65.78%	34.22%	31.57%
Holly Twp	2897	2296	5193	601	55.79%	44.21%	11.57%
Independence Twp	12137	5678	17815	6459	68.13%	31.87%	36.26%
Oakland Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Orion Twp	8429	4202	12631	4227	66.73%	33.27%	33.47%
Oxford Twp	6088	3237	9325	2851	65.29%	34.71%	30.57%
Rochester			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rochester Hills (part)			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Rose Twp	2093	1122	3215	971	65.10%	34.90%	30.20%
Springfield Twp	4968	2222	7190	2746	69.10%	30.90%	38.19%
Total	170396	125084	295480	45312	57.67%	42.33%	15.34%

Congressional District 7 - Redistricted (MI-07)

Incumbent - Tim Walberg (R-Tipton)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 4, non consecutive.
The old 7th District information is here

Challengers -  Kurt Richard Haskell (D-Newport)

Update 8-30-2012 - Haskell and Walberg won their primaries. The dem establishment got some heartburn from Haskell's win. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Tim Walberg caught a break. Three democrats would have been a very competitive race. I don't think Marquez will do so. Haskell is an interesting candidate, all over the place with his views. He was interviewed often as a witness in the underwear bomber case.

This district has changed quite a bit. It's still a swing district. It drops Calhoun County to Justin Amash, where Tim Walberg is strongly disliked. It also drops about 1/2 of Scio Township to Dingell, which is a major democrat stronghold in Washtenaw County. Walberg is only stuck with the "Dexter" part. That's the good news. It picks up York Township instead. The bad news for Walberg is that it adds the City of Milan and Augusta Township in Washtenaw County, as well as all of Monroe County, a swing area that leans slightly democrat, although not as much as it used to. It's about the same as Calhoun County from a partisan standpoint, although it's an unknown in its view of Walberg compared to Eaton (which he still has) and Calhoun Counties. Jackson County and Lenawee Counties are big key swing areas, as is Eaton County. The Washtenaw County portion is still competitive and slightly less democrat dropping the eastern portion of Scio Township. Hillsdale and Branch Counties are still key base areas.

The biggest change though is its homers. The bench for the democrats is smaller in this district compared to the old one. Mark Schauer won't have a rematch. RINO Joe Schwarz won't be stiring up as much trouble either, at least against the guy who made him taste humble pie in a big way.

The hypothetical is this. In a bad year like 08, would Walberg have survived? He had to not lose Augusta, York, Milan, and Monroe County by somewhere between 3700 and 4000 votes. (Scio's spread is likely less than 1480, that's just half of the whole thing). McCain didn't, but Walberg was actually much stronger than McCain. Who knows. In years like 2010, there's plenty to spare.

Obama has about a 12700 vote spread. Bush a 32000 vote spread. Walberg had about a 3800 vote spread in 08 and about a 13300 vote spread in 2010 in the portion of the new district he already represents.

2008
	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	9534	8413	17947	1121	53.12%	46.88%	6.25%
Eaton County	25900	30742	56642	-4842	45.73%	54.27%	-8.55%
Hillsdale County	11221	8765	19986	2456	56.14%	43.86%	12.29%
Jackson County	35692	37480	73172	-1788	48.78%	51.22%	-2.44%
Lenawee County	22225	24640	46865	-2415	47.42%	52.58%	-5.15%
Monroe County	35858	39180	75038	-3322	47.79%	52.21%	-4.43%
Washtenaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Augusta Twp	1489	1979	3468	-490	42.94%	57.06%	-14.13%
Bridgewater Twp	526	481	1007	45	52.23%	47.77%	4.47%
Chelsea City	1214	1748	2962	-534	40.99%	59.01%	-18.03%
Dexter Twp	1730	2064	3794	-334	45.60%	54.40%	-8.80%
Freedom Twp	481	428	909	53	52.92%	47.08%	5.83%
Lima Twp	973	973	1946	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1894	1803	3697	91	51.23%	48.77%	2.46%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	1578	-108	46.58%	53.42%	-6.84%
Manchester Twp	1241	1424	2665	-183	46.57%	53.43%	-6.87%
Milan City	802	1151	1953	-349	41.07%	58.93%	-17.87%
Northfield Twp	2109	2310	4419	-201	47.73%	52.27%	-4.55%
Salem Twp	2067	1510	3577	557	57.79%	42.21%	15.57%
Saline City	2221	2906	5127	-685	43.32%	56.68%	-13.36%
Saline Twp	539	507	1046	32	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Scio Twp (partial)	1886	3854	5740	-1968	32.86%	67.14%	-34.29%
Sharon Twp	556	503	1059	53	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	1915	-77	47.99%	52.01%	-4.02%
Webster Twp	1911	2186	4097	-275	46.64%	53.36%	-6.71%
York Twp	2313	1934	4247	379	54.46%	45.54%	8.92%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	166036	178820	344856	-12784	48.15%	51.85%	-3.71%
2004
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	10784	7004	17788	3780	60.63%	39.37%	21.25%
Eaton County	29781	25411	55192	4370	53.96%	46.04%	7.92%
Hillsdale County	12804	7123	19927	5681	64.25%	35.75%	28.51%
Jackson County	40029	31025	71054	9004	56.34%	43.66%	12.67%
Lenawee County	25675	20787	46462	4888	55.26%	44.74%	10.52%
Monroe County	37470	36089	73559	1381	50.94%	49.06%	1.88%
Washtenaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Augusta Twp	1411	1599	3010	-188	46.88%	53.12%	-6.25%
Bridgewater Twp	550	352	902	198	60.98%	39.02%	21.95%
Chelsea City	1300	1490	2790	-190	46.59%	53.41%	-6.81%
Dexter Twp (not city)	1909	1672	3581	237	53.31%	46.69%	6.62%
Freedom Twp	481	405	886	76	54.29%	45.71%	8.58%
Lima Twp	926	709	1635	217	56.64%	43.36%	13.27%
Lodi Twp	2104	1590	3694	514	56.96%	43.04%	13.91%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	1530	94	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Manchester Twp	1299	1168	2467	131	52.66%	47.34%	5.31%
Milan City	822	822	1644	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Northfield Twp	2325	2027	4352	298	53.42%	46.58%	6.85%
Salem Twp	2130	1330	3460	800	61.56%	38.44%	23.12%
Saline City	2658	2418	5076	240	52.36%	47.64%	4.73%
Saline Twp	612	464	1076	148	56.88%	43.12%	13.75%
Scio Twp (partial)	2122	3181	5303	-1059	40.02%	59.98%	-19.97%
Sharon Twp	630	440	1070	190	58.88%	41.12%	17.76%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	1802	164	54.55%	45.45%	9.10%
Webster Twp	2097	1707	3804	390	55.13%	44.87%	10.25%
York Twp	2367	1623	3990	744	59.32%	40.68%	18.65%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	184081	151973	336054	32108	54.78%	45.22%	9.55%
2008
	Walberg	Schauer	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	9866	6878	16744	2988	58.92%	41.08%	17.85%
Eaton County	24878	27655	52533	-2777	47.36%	52.64%	-5.29%
Hillsdale County	12015	6981	18996	5034	63.25%	36.75%	26.50%
Jackson County	34231	34978	69209	-747	49.46%	50.54%	-1.08%
Lenawee County	22953	22019	44972	934	51.04%	48.96%	2.08%
Monroe County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Augusta Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	523	428	951	95	54.99%	45.01%	9.99%
Chelsea City	1156	1567	2723	-411	42.45%	57.55%	-15.09%
Dexter Twp (not city)	1623	1925	3548	-302	45.74%	54.26%	-8.51%
Freedom Twp	461	397	858	64	53.73%	46.27%	7.46%
Lima Twp	921	854	1775	67	51.89%	48.11%	3.77%
Lodi Twp	1905	1551	3456	354	55.12%	44.88%	10.24%
Lyndon Twp	687	769	1456	-82	47.18%	52.82%	-5.63%
Manchester Twp	1197	1273	2470	-76	48.46%	51.54%	-3.08%
Milan City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Northfield Twp	1845	2119	3964	-274	46.54%	53.46%	-6.91%
Salem Twp	1858	1349	3207	509	57.94%	42.06%	15.87%
Saline City	2235	2484	4719	-249	47.36%	52.64%	-5.28%
Saline Twp	556	416	972	140	57.20%	42.80%	14.40%
Scio Twp (partial)	1825	3305	5130	-1480	35.58%	64.42%	-28.85%
Sharon Twp	542	447	989	95	54.80%	45.20%	9.61%
Sylvan Twp	896	877	1773	19	50.54%	49.46%	1.07%
Webster Twp	1849	1971	3820	-122	48.40%	51.60%	-3.19%
York Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	124022	120243	244265	3779	50.77%	49.23%	1.55%
2010
	Walberg	Schauer	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	7243	4738	11981	2505	60.45%	39.55%	20.91%
Eaton County	18858	20142	39000	-1284	48.35%	51.65%	-3.29%
Hillsdale County	8682	4594	13276	4088	65.40%	34.60%	30.79%
Jackson County	25512	21776	47288	3736	53.95%	46.05%	7.90%
Lenawee County	16510	14037	30547	2473	54.05%	45.95%	8.10%
Monroe County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Augusta Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp	416	279	695	137	59.86%	40.14%	19.71%
Chelsea City	935	1161	2096	-226	44.61%	55.39%	-10.78%
Dexter Twp (not city)	1414	1311	2725	103	51.89%	48.11%	3.78%
Freedom Twp	392	277	669	115	58.59%	41.41%	17.19%
Lima Twp	803	631	1434	172	56.00%	44.00%	11.99%
Lodi Twp	1608	1141	2749	467	58.49%	41.51%	16.99%
Lyndon Twp	561	547	1108	14	50.63%	49.37%	1.26%
Manchester Twp	946	900	1846	46	51.25%	48.75%	2.49%
Milan City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Northfield Twp	1622	1226	2848	396	56.95%	43.05%	13.90%
Salem Twp	1620	886	2506	734	64.64%	35.36%	29.29%
Saline City	1746	1695	3441	51	50.74%	49.26%	1.48%
Saline Twp	408	273	681	135	59.91%	40.09%	19.82%
Scio Twp (partial)	1516	2381	3897	-865	38.90%	61.10%	-22.20%
Sharon Twp	480	337	817	143	58.75%	41.25%	17.50%
Sylvan Twp	745	638	1383	107	53.87%	46.13%	7.74%
Webster Twp	1636	1417	3053	219	53.59%	46.41%	7.17%
York Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	93653	80387	174040	13266	53.81%	46.19%	7.62%